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 Ver United States. November 07 2009 06:44. Posts 816 | Profile |
I was doing a little research into which teams rely on their ace player more than others and well, the results are pretty surprising. This analysis only takes the 08-09 proleague into account because the current season has too little data to make concrete judgments. To avoid this being simply a bunch of numbers I threw in a little writeup on some of the notable players.
* Disclaimer: This is a simple way to look at how one dimensional or deep teams are, nothing more, nothing less. Winrate and net win/loss are much more important indicators of how useful a player is than total wins, and it's much easier to use net games win/loss than overall match win/loss to look at teams. I do apologize in advance for the messiness of the charts but TL is not kind for formatting.*
Overall Rankings
+ Show Spoiler [Column Labels] +
Team | Total Record | Net win/loss | Team Ace | Ace Record | Team Record without Ace | Net Win/loss | Ace in Ace Match Record
1.SKT1 145-109 | +36 | Bisu 53-14 | 92-95 | -3 | 5-1
2.STX 143-109 | +34 | Calm 40-21 | 103-88 | +15 | 5-3
3.oz 134-103 | +31 | Jaedong 54-21 | 80-82 | -2 | 6-4
4.Hite 141-119 | +22 | Leta 49-21 | 92-98 | -6 | 13-3
5.CJ 130-108 | +22 | Effort 33-17 | 97-91 | +6 | 4-3
6.Khan 129-126 | +3 | Jangbi 30-21 | 99-105 | -6 | 4-1
7.kt 126-123 | +3 | Flash 54-19 | 72-104 | -32 | 9-5
8.Stars 117-126 | -9 | Free 35-25 | 82-101 | -19 | 4-2
9.MBC 118-130 | -12 | Light 36-17 | 82-113 | -31 | 2-3
10.eSTRO 120-137 | -17 | Really 33-32 | 87-105 | -18 | 4-4
11.Fox 105-140 | -35 | Mind 28-25 | 77-115 | -28 | 3-3
12.Ace 80-158 | -78 | Oversky 17-19 | 63-139 | -76 | 1-1
Teams Without their Ace
+ Show Spoiler [Column Labels] +
Team | Aceless Record | Net Win/loss | Ranking Shift from Overall Record
1.STX 103-88 | +15 | +1
2.CJ 97-91 | +6 | +3
3.Oz 80-82 | -2 | =
4.SKT1 92-95 | -3 | -3
5.Khan 99-105 | -6 | +1
6.Hite 92-98 | -6 | -2
7.Estro 87-105 | -18 | +3
8.Stars 82-101 | -19 | =
9.MBC 82-113 | -31 | =
10.KT 72-104 | -32 | -3
11.Fox 77-115 | -38 | =
12.Ace 63-139 | -76 | =
Relative Ace Performance
+ Show Spoiler [Formula] +
Ace win percentage / Team win percentage. There might be slight problems using winning percentage instead of net win/loss but this is much easier to do and the results are similar enough.
1. Flash 1.81
2. Light 1.62 !
3. Bisu 1.61
4. Oversky 1.52 !!
5. Jaedong 1.46
6. Leta 1.45
7. Mind 1.32
8. Free 1.30
9. Effort 1.28
10. Calm 1.22
11. Jangbi 1.21
12. Really 1.09
The true one man teams? KT, MBC, and SKT1. No that's not a typo.
Most Valued Aces
1. Flash
Flash being the most valuable ace is expected as his team was actually called KTFlash, but it really is surprising how badly KT relies on him. The fact one player got the otherwise third to last place team within one game of playoff qualification is really tough to swallow. While a slumping Flash failed to perform in WL, his Ace record of 9-5 is second only to Leta.
This arrangement ends up being really bad for both KT and Flash, for the former has no playoff hopes due to lack of depth, and the latter is weighed down so much by his team's reliance on him that he continually flunks out of important starleague matches due to overscheduling. In this season, while too early to say with certainty, Luxury looks like he just might be picking up the slack, and boy is there a lot of slack to pick up. If Luxury can just get above a 50% winrate this season KT might have some playoff chances.
2. Light
Who's this? I've never seen him before.
Invisible Terran is probably the most appropriate nickname ever, with Light easily being the most underrated player today.
Yes, his ratio and Ace match record is not as impressive as some of the high finishing Aces but you have to take his team into account. MBC finished 9th with a -12 ratio, while Light had the 5th best win percentage at 36-17. Light and MBC are like a mini Flash/KT duo, with the only downside of Light's being his uneviable Ace record of 2-3. Give this man some credit, for he alone kept MBC from being a complete sinking ship.
This season looks like MBC is on the uprise finally thanks to the return of their valued Coach Ha. Light has finally taken a backseat to Sea, although it is hard to say whether it is temporary or not considering the much higher difficulty of Light's matches and his unpredictability. Either way, with Light finally having the support he needs MBC is suddenly one of the more serious threats this season.
3. Bisu
At first glance one would expect the number one team to have the most depth. But no, if you take out Bisu and Jaedong the rest of SKT1 performed a fair bit worse than the rest of Oz. Shocking right? Bisu may have lost proleague MVP by 1 win but he was in reality the strongest proleague asset because he did not lose.
The only difference here from the other mentioned players is that Bisu is not SKT1's only Ace choice, though he is certainly one of the best in the league at 5-1. Best performed admirably in the earlier rounds with a solid Ace record of 4-1, and while Fantasy's 2-3 Ace record is hardly good he did ace Oz in the finals.
4. Oversky
The possibility that a valued 'Ace' cannot even maintain a 50% winrate should inspire laughter, but only for a moment. The fact is that Oversky came very close to having a 50% win ratio with 36 games, which is incredible for Ace, considering their overall winrate isn't even a third. I predicted Ace to take a major nosedive this season with the loss of their best player, but the ascent of another unknown figure in Ruby is keeping Oversky's legacy and Ace alive.
Oversky has just retired, but unlike most unknown players who quietly retire this veteran was responsible for keeping his team alive. He may not get much attention but he was a much more important part of Ace's success than the more popular yet weaker players like Reach, Casy, Yellow, and Anytime. Give Oversky some respect, for if the rest of Ace played on his level they would no longer be the perennial proleague punching bad.
5. Leta
Yeah, Leta is quite a bit more important Sparkyz's success than Jaedong is to Oz's. The reason? Ace match dominance. Nobody else came close to Leta's Ace record of 13-3! Suffice to say, if Leta slumps, Hite plummets. And yes he began to slump late in the season and did not perform up to par in the playoffs, but that's acceptable given that he's the only reason Hite made the playoffs in the first place.
Leta and Hite (they pretty much are interchangeable) have seen some mixed fortunes so far, and it's anyone's guess whether Leta can find again the ability he maintained last season. Frankly I doubt it, but that uncertainty is only due to what sizable shoes Leta must fill to equal his past performance.
6. Jaedong
Oh oh what a surprise. One man team what? Of the Flash/Jaedong/Bisu trio Jaedong performed the worst in the regular season and in ace matches (6-4), although his playoff games were quite respectable at 9-5. He is Oz's iconic player and a great one at that, but more attention needs to be given to his teammates who quietly kept Oz at the top. Coach Cho rarely played anyone besides Jaedong for Ace, but ForGG and Hiya did combine to a respectable 3-1 in Ace matches.
Bottom line is Oz doesn't deserve all the trashtalking they get whatsoever for being a one-dimensional team. Save that for SKT1. Yes both Jaedong and the rest of Oz are having severe troubles this season, but it's highly unlikely that it will continue for more than a round or two. The proleague season is long and a team with such a strong Ace and reliable core is always a playoff contender.
As for teams, it's no surprise how deep Khan and CJ are but STX is all around the most versatile team by a sizable margin. As their playoff performance showed they still need experience to perform in high pressure situation but they are definitely a favorite. SKT1 might or might not reach the top again, but their performance relies so much upon Bisu that the prospect is rather unlikely. STX on the other hand has powerhouse performers in Calm, Kal, and July (when he plays), with reliable support from virtually their entire roster. With such stability and two solid Aces, STX finishing anywhere out of the top 3 this season will be a major surprise.
Yeah it may be a little bit late for a review of the 08-09 season but hopefully it can shed some Light on under and overapperciated players. |
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 JSH United States. November 07 2009 06:51. Posts 83 | Profile |
Cool interesting read...
a new view on the Proleague Teams
good job  |
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 seppolevne Canada. November 07 2009 06:58. Posts 755 | Profile Blog |
Invisible terran indeed, even though almost every game I see him in he wins, I still scoff when I see Light at 7 points in fantasy PL.
Very, very cool stats, thanks! Last edit: 2009-11-07 06:59:38 |
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 GTR . November 07 2009 07:04. Posts 22431 | Profile Blog | |
| Did you get my sign, Sign?! Fantastic elastic. Chu∼♡
귀를 감아 넘어오는 그 놈 목소리, 지겨워도 듣게 되는 그런 Melody, 다시 나를 조여오는 너의 Memory. |  |
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| Vazze Sweden. November 07 2009 07:08. Posts 13 | Profile |
Mad respect to you for doing this.
Very interesting read. Had no idea SKT win record was so bad excluding Bisu.
It's the SKT zerg's fault mostly |
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 heyoka United States. November 07 2009 07:10. Posts 1722 | Profile Blog |
This is a very cool look at it, great work. I did some preliminary work similar to this for one of the proleague stat writeups last year that looked at how "one dimension" teams are from a slightly different angle, I hope to finish it up for an article by the end of this season. I came up with pretty similar results though, Oz is/was way less of a "one man team" than people realized last year.
I don't understand your numbers for oversky though, TLPD has him at 16-15 for the season which makes him the only ACE player to ever maintain above a 50% winrate in a season. I also think you are forgetting to look at "what player has the most wins as a percentage of total team wins" which is a relevant factor for this kind of study (you instead looked more at overall percentages which is fine, but you have to consider where a team's "normal game victories" are coming from as well to truly figure out the value of an ace player).
I also think predicting ACE to do worse without oversky is reasonable, but wrong because of other factors (RuBy of course, but also that their team overall is playing better right now than last year - I explain methods for how I came to this here). |
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 ELESSAR Bulgaria. November 07 2009 07:14. Posts 20 | Profile |
canata did very well in the end of last season and with best starting to win games I don't think skt1 will have to rely on Bisu as much as last season, oh and don't forget hyuk hi might not be as good as the hype suggests but he is definitely better than last season. SKT1 with a good zerg sounds scary
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| never_toss Costa Rica. November 07 2009 07:18. Posts 804 | Profile Blog |
| Interesting... though im not sure how the chart would look hadnt Jaedong been slumping now. |
| | Try using Irradiate and Defense Matrix on an Overlord. It looks pretty neat | |
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 DM20 Canada. November 07 2009 07:19. Posts 328 | Profile |
If you want to check which teams rely on their aces find out the % of ace matches they are sent for, these stats are just comparing how well the ace did compared to their team.
SKT doesn't send out Bisu almost every ace like KT or oz does with Flash and Jaedong.Last edit: 2009-11-07 07:19:47 |
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 SuperArc Austria. November 07 2009 07:20. Posts 2603 | Profile |
On November 07 2009 07:19 DM20 wrote:
If you want to check which teams rely on their aces find out the % of ace matches they are sent for, these stats are just comparing how well the ace did compared to their team.
SKT doesn't send out Bisu almost every ace like KT or oz does.
SKT without Bisu means one less win and this means SKT has to go into ace match as often as KT and JD. And fantasy is hardly a good ace player. Good WL players are also good ace players. (fantasy is neither). |
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| DM20 Canada. November 07 2009 07:24. Posts 328 | Profile |
| And without jaedong of flash KT/Oz would rarely make to ace match. |
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 MrHoon  November 07 2009 07:25. Posts 4906 | Profile Blog |
man I love you ver, this post is awesome
I'm rather surprised how more invisible the invisible terran got |
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 MYM.Testie Canada. November 07 2009 07:26. Posts 7470 | Profile Blog |
I'm not even finished reading this and it's awesome.
Cool thread. |
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| Harem United States. November 07 2009 07:28. Posts 2815 | Profile |
On November 07 2009 07:26 MYM.Testie wrote:
I'm not even finished reading this and it's awesome.
Cool thread.
That's pretty much how every post by Ver goes. |
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 sushiman Sweden. November 07 2009 07:28. Posts 1851 | Profile |
| It feels like MBC must have an awful atmosphere on their team. Bisu, July and Ruby all have performed way better after they left, and I don't doubt both Light and Sea would reach new heigths if they did as well. Light is so terribly underrated because he stays at that horrible team; switching just about anywhere would make him reach the spotlight with ease. |
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| Triple7 United States. November 07 2009 07:33. Posts 374 | Profile |
| Interesting read. I will continue to say Oz=Jaedong though. |
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 exeprime Romania. November 07 2009 07:39. Posts 266 | Profile Blog |
Excellent post. The SKT thing was really surprising, guess flashes of brilliance like those of Best and Fantasy mean nothing when you can't produce results constantly.
Love to see that STX has the most solid lineup statistically too - all they lacked was a consistent ace and now with Calm's new found success the chances for a great season are pretty damn good. |
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| Nytefish United Kingdom. November 07 2009 08:00. Posts 1844 | Profile Blog |
| It's strange that even after reading all the statistics it still feels like Jaedong is carrying his team. I suppose it could be due to the lack of Oz players in the individual leagues, it makes you think they're performing worse than they actually are. |
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| hyst.eric.al United States. November 07 2009 08:16. Posts 620 | Profile |
| awesome read! very informative, but Oz will never lose its rep. |
| | | Leta ~ 신상문 | Calm ~ 김윤환 | BeSt ~ 도재욱 | HwaSin ~ 진영수 | Violet ~ 우정호 | Fighting! | |
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 roadrunner_sc United States. November 07 2009 08:39. Posts 1161 | Profile Blog |
On November 07 2009 07:19 DM20 wrote:
If you want to check which teams rely on their aces find out the % of ace matches they are sent for, these stats are just comparing how well the ace did compared to their team.
SKT doesn't send out Bisu almost every ace like KT or oz does with Flash and Jaedong.
Good point. In addition to evaluating their performance, the frequency of appearance during ace match plays a huge part in reflecting the player's role within the team.
Ace match = coach has most confidence in u carrying the whole team to victory. Anyway you look at it, ace players are the reps of each team.
Edit: Almost forgot, another great article Ver!Last edit: 2009-11-07 08:39:56 |
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