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1) I've been trying to change my picture, but I need to find out my password.
2) I'll be running for mayor.
3) Ver's retarded and looking at clues is plenty helpful, especially since it lets you see who's pushing against who. Regardless, having people talking is better than having people not talking. Its far easier to let people be silent in a 50 man game than have them actively feign town interests.
Proof? Pretty much every large game we've had.
In the current game, a full 40% of people playing are mafia; while clues shouldn't be the only thing you have on someone, they should definitely play a part.
Then again this is probably just my interpretation, given that I'm one of the only people who is responsible for a clue kill on day 1 or 2.
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I am going to bold sections that I think are non-herrings. This probably won't be every clue, nor do I think that day 1's lynch in particular should be 100% clue motivated. Day 1 lynch works far better as a method of getting mayoral candidates to talk about who they want to kill.
As for me? I'd probably kill chez because of how much trash he's going to put in the thread. While I disagree with Ver, he's a good player and I know what he's trying to say. The other option is killing someone inactive, which isn't really a bad choice, but generally that doesn't actually kill a mafia for us.
So without further delay, here is a post with me bolding shit I think is important.
On February 14 2010 07:43 Incognito wrote:Day 1As darkness set over the town of Liquidia, a light, warm, wind blew across the land This seems odd. to say the least, not something that will clearly net us a kill, but its something that might link up in later days. From here on, something that might be thematic, but not entirely strong enough as a clue in and of itself, I will underline.. The moon, now high in the sky, peeked in and out of the clouds and cast ominous shadowsThe moon and shadows figure as prominent themes throughout this post throughout the streets. The town was quiet except for a few straggling workers plodding home. The town had been exhausted from the last rebuilding, and many shopkeepers lacked the will and the customers to stay open through the evening. Mayor Incognito peered out of his apartment building, noticing the tranquilityThis didn't pop out at me during my first reading, but quiet and tranquility are mentioned more than once that had recently come to the town. After all, the mafia had been swiftly eliminated last year, and was unlikely to come back. Or so he thought. For the most part, the town was dark, excepting the moon which occasionally peeked out of the clouds. As Pardoner Kennigit prepared to retire for the night, he noticed that one room in the City Hall building remained lit. It was Qatol, who had been slaving laboriously in drafting a new constitution for the town. Sighing, Qatol decided to call it quits for the night. The new town constitution was almost complete; it only had a few details that needed to be straightened out. So he turned off the light and began his trek home. Dreamflower, whose house was on the outskirts of town, was nervous at the sight of the weather outside. She was not comforted by the fact that shadows kept appearing around her house, although she knew it was only the moon behind the moving clouds. Suddenly however, she noticed two horsemen stopped on the ridge in the distance. Nowadays, it was strange for anyone to be out this late at night. Wary that the mafia had returned, dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting. Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds. Dreamflower became more nervous, and pointed her gun out the window, waiting for the horsemen to approach. However, she was startled as she noticed a figure walking towards the horsemen. She breathed a sigh of relief when she recognized Qatol. But what was Qatol doing out so late at night?Why WAS Qatol out at night? There's a few potential answers, but the fact that Qatol walks towards the mafia indicates something akin to their trustworthy appearance Dreamflower was puzzled, but was snapped back into reality as she noticed the horsemen were only a football field away from her location. Thinking quickly, she decided not to fire a shot, but ran outside to get Qatol to safety. She tried to run in the shadows, but was caught in the middle of the road as the moon pierced through the cloud layer and shone directly on her. The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horsemanQuite frankly, this is a retardedly easy clue pointing towards ace, which makes me wonder if its a herring and if we should be looking more at the reflection aspect. Maybe incog just doesn't like Ace, and was a little slow to react. She leaped to the left, and narrowly avoided death. But the second horseman just cackled loudly. Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.Second horseman cackles loudly and might be heavy, not really that much to go on In a panic, dreamflower ran back into her house to grab her gun, but it was futile. The ground felt moist, and dreamflower slipped as she ran through her front door. The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen. Alright, so, there's a guy with a torch who soaked someone's house in oil. He seems to come from behind or might be part of the other mafia team. If that's the case, horseman 1&2 are from the same team, which fits the method of their descriptionSo far we have: Horseman 1: Moonlight reflection. Horseman 2: Cackles and is heavy? Incendiary torch lobber: Oils and torches things.Incognito was almost falling asleep standing up, but then noticed a house in flames in the distance. Immediately taking action, he raced down stairs and called up Kennigit to take care of the incident. By the time that both Kennigit and Incognito were racing towards dreamflower’s burning house, there was more commotion in the streets. Panicked citizens walked out of their houses to figure out what was happening, but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside. was this the same as the earlier cackle? Or is the panic indicative of chaos and the hyena-like noise indicating someone else entirely? Either way, this paragraph seems like it'll bear fruit when we have more days and more clues to work with The mayor and pardoner stopped in the town square, pausing for a moment to come up with a plan. But no plan would arise. The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square. Kennigit had time to get his thoughts together, and swiftly chased after the figure. But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen. Fearing that his end was near, Kennigit hid behind a barrel of wine, and was astonished that the horseman did not pursue him. However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness. This last portion, I'm not even going to bother highlighting. The links to Ace are retardedly strong; this last paragraph is in reference to a horseman
Ace, lol what happened. Incog hates you.
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On February 14 2010 09:13 DoctorHelvetica wrote: We should worry about elections right now. Keep the clues in mind as they'll become important later, but too much speculation is just distracting and helps the mafia imo The only real points of contention in any election is whether or not we're voting in someone who's red or blue, and who we're going to kill if we're elected.
The first is very hard to determine for the majority of people, so we generally just look at the competition for who we're going to kill. Cults of personality also play into this, but frankly none of us are superstar ballers that automatically deserve an in.
So what exactly, should we talk about? Who we're going to mayor lynch? I'm hovering between Ace, Chez or an inactive.
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On February 14 2010 09:29 Zato-1 wrote:It... does seem to look that way. "If darkness is bad, why does it hide you? If light is good, why does it blind you?" There are numerous references to the horsemen hiding in the shadows, and then to using light to blind dreamflower. I'm still not 100% convinced that this is all referring to Ace, but whatever doubt remains on my mind is only from the fact that day 1 clue analysis should be taken with a metric ton of salt. Pretty much. The only thing I see as somewhat redeeming is the fact that his picture is Deathscythe Hell Custom, but then I see Death as one of the four horsemen, and Deathscythe had an invisibility cloak which explains the fading into the shadows.
The only thing that stands out to me is the blue light, and that might be explainable too.
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On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started.
First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on.
Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.
I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon.
Summarized version: I'm angry that in game where 2 out of 5 people are mafia, that someone called me out on blatant clue connections.
I could understand if we had a 20 man game with like, 4 mafia, that a host would understandably shy away from good day 1 clues, but that's really not the case here. Compare this game's Day 1 post with clues to pretty much any of the others; This one is far larger, has more thematic elements and establishes 3-4 clear personae.
Actually, I kinda want to repeat that; Lets look at this current game format.
The town consists of 31 members. The mafia families combined amount to 20 members. Mafia, given that they attack a group that is 41 members large, and not 51 members large, have a 1/4 chance of hitting a mafia from another house, and a 3/4 chance of hitting a townie. With a total of 7 kp per day, 1 from the town, 3 from each family, we have 1*60%+6*75% effective average townie deaths per day before clues and blue roles. That's 5 deaths a day, giving us a clock of around 6-8 days to kill...
20 mafia?
Well, that's not entirely true; we should have 2 mafia killed by that point by fire between the groups, so 18. Say we have 8 days until some form of LyLo situtation, giving us 8 lynches; Even if we succeed every lynch, we're going to have ten mafia still alive.
That's impossible. Many of you know its impossible. So what handicaps is town likely to get? Well for one, they have stronger DTs, they probably have substantial kp in vigs and hatters, but they won't amount to the 12 kp hole we have.
More to the point; Clues aren't here just for the town; They're for opposing mafia teams as well. If we aren't analysing and picking a few good targets a day, one of the teams will be; ideally we want to be correct about a few of the early ones and have members of the mafia agree so that they shred each other and lower their kp asap.
So why exactly are you thinking that day 1 clues wouldn't be a part of the game?
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Actually, in a game of 51 people, its easier to link up the thematics than it is to slog through the profiles. Believe me. I know.
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On February 14 2010 12:11 Ace wrote: No, come up with new plans. This entire discussion around whether to use Clues on Day 1 is so revealing already. Like I said it doesn't matter how many Mafia are in the game, using Clues to catch people isn't going to change the fact that they are subjective call outs. See the point now? So basically you're innocent in the face of the only real piece of evidence we have on our lap?
Ok.
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Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content.
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On February 14 2010 12:17 Abenson wrote: L v Ace... Flame war between vets o.o Don't really see this being a flamewar, I'm just shocked by the fact that Ace is ignoring the game format and pretty much ignoring both the validity of day 1 clues in this format as well as the strength of the clues themselves.
I'm wondering if he's hoping that I'll back off in the face of some mafia members giving him proxy support in the thread or something.
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On February 14 2010 12:20 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 12:18 L wrote: Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content. There was a picture in someone's profile with a moon, a woman, and fire. I was posted earlier. Plus shadows and darkness was in Day 1 post of last game. Shadows aren't what make me think he's the horseman. Its the blinded by moonlight, him disappearing into shadows, and his radiant end.
I mean, they fit perfectly with his quote.
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On February 14 2010 12:27 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 12:18 L wrote: Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content. because I'm not going to sit here and point fingers for no reason. I won't sit here and start revenge accusations just because the clues don't point to me. I won't go looking for people and say HEY THE CLUES POINT TO THIS GUY NOT ME - that doesn't help the town. It just invites one more person into the ruckus and then they have incentive to point to someone else, etc. That's just going to start a bunch of arguments. So far that's 2 things I've got you on that are incentive to cause town uprising aka Mafia Behavior. Come on, one more thing so I can check you on the list and start my epic post. Oh so you don't want to argue about who the clues could point to because it would cause an argument, yet you're having an argument because despite being innocent, you refuse to even look at the clues which REALLY single you out.
Ace, if I wasn't suspicious of you when I read the day post, you've made me double suspicious with your circular reasoning.
I'm not trying to start a town uprising. I looked at the clues and made thematic links; you were the one that was most prevalent. You then said i'm a retard for doing analysis that needs to be doing. Interestingly enough, instead of actually looking at the clues which mirror you (because you don't want to get into a fight, remember?) you want to start a fight with me instead.
I find this incredibly amusing, since its hilariously contradictory; Why start a town uprising instead of bow your head for once and go "wow those clues ARE pretty bad for me, but they aren't against me; i know because i'm innocent. Let me see what I can do to resolve this confusion"?
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On February 14 2010 12:37 Ace wrote: L there is no confusion to resolve. I'm not going to sit here and argue about clue content because it's SUBJECTIVE. I will debate on whether or not it's valid to even discuss over them at length since that is something that can be supported with facts: majority of games we play with clue discussion lead to lots of innocent death.
See. It's not that hard to call you out on your bullshit ^_^ The majority of anything that people discuss lead to innocent deaths on day 1-2. Doesn't mean it shouldn't be done. If anything, the discussion is useful to see who's talking, who isn't, and who's pushing against who.
As for the profile change, I added a picture because I didn't have one. Prior to the change my profile was the same with the lack of picture.
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Actually, I figured that a topic related to our current conversation should be addressed;
As the town, how do we win given the game format?
Faction win conditions:
The town must eliminate at least 8 members of each family AND must outnumber the surviving mafia. The Gambino family must eliminate the Sumiyoshi family. The Sumiyoshi family must eliminate the Gambino family.
This post says that 18 mafia need to die for us to win. Compared to us, mafia have 6 times our kp per day/night cycle. If we want to win, are we forced to rely on mafia cross hits?
I mean, seriously, given the format, it seems like town's main job is to out mafia with dts/try to soak hits on greens with medics, and just survive the mafia crossrape. If that's the case, shouldn't our main objective be to throw up as much clue information as possible? Unlike typical 1 mafia team games with clues, even if one team is deadset on keeping someone underwraps, its in the interest of someone from the opposing team to out them.
So, two questions that I want people to think about:
1) What's our job as town? Survive? Hunt mafia? You tell me.
2) How do we react to information? Even classic things like DT gambits are changed in this game; If someone from a team that's winning wants to delay the town a turn, he can accuse someone of the opposite team and be 'confirmed' as a DT for a day. If he's killed as a claimaint, his team is still ahead, especially if his move lowers his opponent's kp.
For 2) I think that information given to the town on the whole will be more 'true' in that there is no single underground group controlling information flow.
Anyways, feel free to talk about this, and I still think you're red Ace.
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On February 14 2010 13:04 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 12:31 Iaaan wrote:On February 14 2010 12:27 Ace wrote:On February 14 2010 12:18 L wrote: Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content. because I'm not going to sit here and point fingers for no reason. I won't sit here and start revenge accusations just because the clues don't point to me. I won't go looking for people and say HEY THE CLUES POINT TO THIS GUY NOT ME - that doesn't help the town. It just invites one more person into the ruckus and then they have incentive to point to someone else, etc. That's just going to start a bunch of arguments. So far that's 2 things I've got you on that are incentive to cause town uprising aka Mafia Behavior. Come on, one more thing so I can check you on the list and start my epic post. I'm happy that you don't want to accuse people without a good reason, but the clues still point to you. Thats probably not enough for anyone to lynch you, but its still there. ... this is what happens with day 1 clue analysis. meaningless accusations, flaming defenses, distracted townies. please stop. How exactly is your post any better? You've submitted a number of 3-4 line simple commentaries agreeing with someone else.
Feel free to produce content.
This isn't the same type of large game as we've previously had; Using assumptions that we used in other large games simply won't work out anymore. There's a LOT to talk about, but it seems I'm the only one who's bothering to actually look at the fact that there's more than 1 mafia team in my argumentation. I can't help but wonder why.
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On February 14 2010 13:34 redtooth wrote: L, i think we should focus on who is the least suspicious mayor with the most potential and who that mayor should kill. so far i'm of the belief that the winning mayor should lynch a 'veteran' mayor candidate and i feel that the person should be BC. ver's post obviously cast suspicions on him but BC's response was very interesting as well.
summary of BC activity so far: he posts an off-tangent mayor platform (not too abnormal after his rhyming fiasco) and Ver posts analyzing his past mayoral platforms. BC comes back and complements Ver's post, voting him for mayor despite Ver not even running for that position.
i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis.
about that, i don't think we will ever have legitimate/good day 1 analysis, regardless of the number of mafia that are in the game. think of it from incognito's point of view. he sure doesn't want to get flamed for having obvious clues (i remember inertinept getting pretty heated for getting killed off by obvious day 1 clues) and to say he adjusted the accuracy of day 1 clues to compensate the number of mafia seems to be sort of a stretch. and we have to assume that for every clue he gives pointing to one family, he has to do one pointing to the other family (balance issues) so we should be seeing TWO sets of obvious clues, not one. like L analyzed before, there is a huge number of clues that can be stretched to point to Ace and can be deduced to have been "easy clues" incognito threw out there because of the high number of mafia but where is the other set of "easy clues" pointing to a mafia member of the other family? we are looking at mostly red herrings.
also, would all legitimate mayor candidates give a preliminary candidate for who to lynch in case they get elected? On the point of 2 sets of obvious clues; Why? Mafia members analysing can already self identify far easier than the town, and as far as the town is concerned, they need to kill the majority of the mafia anyways.
I don't see why there would need to be a clear clue division between the two families.
Additionally the clues that point at Ace aren't stretched; they're all linked directly to the same persona. To be quite frank, the moonlight rider is either Ace or Mystlord; I took the time to look over the entirety of everyone's profiles and those are the only two people who link to that character. The reflection and blindness thematics which are linked to the moonlight rider connect far more to Ace's signature than anything in Mystlord's profile; the only thing I can think of that Mystlord has over Ace is some blue content in the picture. Myst seems to link up to a different set of clues, but there's only 2 mentions, unlike the 4-5 that Ace has.
I honestly don't see how after actually looking at the clues that you'd think it to be a stretch. Feel free to read the first post, develop themes for each of the potential mafia members, then attempt to link the moonlight rider to someone.
Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters?
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On February 14 2010 13:48 Abenson wrote: *lurks* Can't think of any intelligent things to say/contribute :D Just for future reference; In a game of this size, people are going to be very page sensitive. People don't like reading through hundreds of pages of stuff, especially when people die or they need to go back and reference arguments earlier in the thread.
Please do not make empty posts unless you really feel like you need to tell people that you're not contributing. Empty posts bump quality off the current page and bury important content-containing posts. Its rather easy to have an accurate finger on someone, then simply have mafia chum it up for a few lines and get it off of people's minds. That type of action has probably already happened more than once this game, given the amount of people being pointed at, as well as the amount of people posting 1-4 lines of content void garbage.
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On February 14 2010 13:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote: L I wont spend time on day 1 clue analysis till like day 3, there is no point till then, i dont get why you love it so much Because I'm one of the only people who actually hits targets before day 3.
I dunno, my record during clue games when I'm innocent is pretty sterling. I just end up not going balls in on my suspects and then they kill me off day 3.
Granted that town doesn't have fucking time to sit around granted the massive kp disparity, I don't see why we'd ignore the only concrete information we have about someone's allegiance.
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On February 14 2010 14:13 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote:On February 14 2010 13:34 redtooth wrote: L, i think we should focus on who is the least suspicious mayor with the most potential and who that mayor should kill. so far i'm of the belief that the winning mayor should lynch a 'veteran' mayor candidate and i feel that the person should be BC. ver's post obviously cast suspicions on him but BC's response was very interesting as well.
summary of BC activity so far: he posts an off-tangent mayor platform (not too abnormal after his rhyming fiasco) and Ver posts analyzing his past mayoral platforms. BC comes back and complements Ver's post, voting him for mayor despite Ver not even running for that position.
i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis.
about that, i don't think we will ever have legitimate/good day 1 analysis, regardless of the number of mafia that are in the game. think of it from incognito's point of view. he sure doesn't want to get flamed for having obvious clues (i remember inertinept getting pretty heated for getting killed off by obvious day 1 clues) and to say he adjusted the accuracy of day 1 clues to compensate the number of mafia seems to be sort of a stretch. and we have to assume that for every clue he gives pointing to one family, he has to do one pointing to the other family (balance issues) so we should be seeing TWO sets of obvious clues, not one. like L analyzed before, there is a huge number of clues that can be stretched to point to Ace and can be deduced to have been "easy clues" incognito threw out there because of the high number of mafia but where is the other set of "easy clues" pointing to a mafia member of the other family? we are looking at mostly red herrings.
also, would all legitimate mayor candidates give a preliminary candidate for who to lynch in case they get elected? On the point of 2 sets of obvious clues; Why? Mafia members analysing can already self identify far easier than the town, and as far as the town is concerned, they need to kill the majority of the mafia anyways. I don't see why there would need to be a clear clue division between the two families. Additionally the clues that point at Ace aren't stretched; they're all linked directly to the same persona. To be quite frank, the moonlight rider is either Ace or Mystlord; I took the time to look over the entirety of everyone's profiles and those are the only two people who link to that character. The reflection and blindness thematics which are linked to the moonlight rider connect far more to Ace's signature than anything in Mystlord's profile; the only thing I can think of that Mystlord has over Ace is some blue content in the picture. Myst seems to link up to a different set of clues, but there's only 2 mentions, unlike the 4-5 that Ace has. I honestly don't see how after actually looking at the clues that you'd think it to be a stretch. Feel free to read the first post, develop themes for each of the potential mafia members, then attempt to link the moonlight rider to someone. Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? probably never. i don't know if you stopped reading my post halfway but there are a lot of other points i make, one of them about Ace's clues. it is very much within reason that if Ace were mafia, incognito would want him alive. giving Ace what amounts to be a guaranteed death sentence on day 1 is ridiculous and not likely. and if you were running the game, wouldn't you do an equal number of clues per family per day post? how else do you hold a neutral position? give one family an obvious clue and the other three hard clues? no it's very very very much within reason that incognito would do a 1:1 ratio (at least at this point with all mafia alive). and he DEFINITELY wouldn't do a whole string of clues that point to a veteran mafia without doing at least one 'obvious' clue pointing to the other family. if anything Ace seems more innocent because there are so many clues pointing to him. of course that doesn't give him guaranteed townie status (like what chezinu was trying with citizen). i think you are being absurd right now and am wondering if you just want him killed so you can take over the game.
1) So Ace needs to be innocent because he's too valuable a player to die off early? That's interesting speculation; its rather easy to try and twist a nearly 100% clue kill on someone away from that person.
Case Study: Truthbringer. I had to yell for 5+ pages in a small game on nearly 100% solid clues to get people to lynch truthbringer on day 2. Mafia being able to wagon against me in public opinion/changing the subject/arguing against the clue makes it very hard to actually have a correct clue analysis stick. Many of the games in which someone pins many members down, no one actually acts upon the good information.
Additionally; what's to say the mafia don't have more than 1 good player? This game has around 10 very good veteran players; town probably has 4-6, the other mafia teams likely have 2-3. I don't see why incog would exclusively post clues to people on their first or second game.
2) Incog might be throwing out clues in a 1:1 ratio, but there's no clear demarcation in the clues as to which personae belong to which side. The only thing that stands out to me as an indication are the 2 horsemen being together, and the oil igniter being on the opposite side of the house.
On the topic of other clues; There's a number of other clues that I'm pretty sure I have nailed down too. My initial estimate of 4 personae was a bit low; there's probably 6 at the minimum in there, but some of them only have passing non-linked references. Those references are much harder to get; The cheese factory, for instance, was always around, but not linked to a person. I'm just not 100% sure yet because I haven't looked over all of the profiles with those specific themes in mind. I wouldn't be surprised if mafia hit 2-3 targets tonight.
I don't look at people to get clues pinned to them. I use clues to build a persona, then i look to see which person is most identical to the persona.
3) No, generally people look more innocent if there are herring clues; clues that don't directly link up to a persona that vaguely look like they're pointing at them. Shadowdragon and the multitude of non-linked dark and shadow references, for instance, ruled out the use of his name as a clue. In the current instance, there's one horse rider who is thematically linked to Ace's quote perfectly. The clues are specific, and the clues are complete in their description.
The pushback I'm getting on fairly cut and dry clues, especially given that no one is bothering to actually talk about the actual clues, is fairly telling; I hit a nerve somewhere.
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On February 14 2010 14:44 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 14:33 L wrote: 2) Incog might be throwing out clues in a 1:1 ratio, but there's no clear demarcation in the clues as to which personae belong to which side. The only thing that stands out to me as an indication are the 2 horsemen being together, and the oil igniter being on the opposite side of the house. do you understand what i am trying to say? it doesn't matter that there is no demarcation of which persona belongs to which family. it does matter that you are implying ~5 clues (easy ones at that) are pointing at a single persona and that persona is Ace. and about the multiple veterans, it still means that one family would have one less veteran, a significant blow regardless of how many vets you have on your team. that would be a serious balance issue. as a side note, i'm sure some of you may suspect that i am associated with Ace in some manner. the answer is a simple no. i think that Ace is one of the best mafia players (imo second only to MBH) and he is a valuable town asset. actually, go ahead and check Mafia XV. Ace makes a call, L wants Ace to be killed, I defend Ace, town bandwagons against Ace, Ace dies due to L's assertiveness, Ace turns out correct on his call, L flips red godfather. L maybe I hit a nerve? The five clues are all descriptions of a single persona, the moonlight rider. All five clues link to Ace. It would be an issue if clues linked to other personas directly linked to other portions of the profile; those would be indicative of herrings and would not be usable in the case.
For instance; If i said that the oil and fire linked to Ace somehow, that would be a problem with the analysis because of overbroad themes.
Feel free to find out which other character fits the thematic profile I've linked to ace's signature. That's an open challenge, by the way. The clues are pointing to someone, so if i'm wrong, they'll point to someone else, right?
Now, to toot my own horn; As far as veterans go, I'm the only one who uses clues extensively. I'm also one of the only players who has successfully hit targets with only 1 set of clues attached to them. Given that, and the fact that I don't think we can sit around.
As for me getting Ace killed; yeah, we do that often. Sometimes he's mafia, sometimes I am. You can look at other games wherein Ver and Ace kill each other off, or the game in which Ver and Qatol high five each other after a few posts and team up. There's plenty of prior examples of nearly anything you want to show.
So you wanted to talk about case studies? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93286 A game where I called out Ace AND Ver, get them both killed (both innocent ) and then win (as town, because I was innocent too). Even Ace was like "yeah, I'da killed me too".
I personally don't think you're mafia even if Ace flips red; you're a bit too blatant in your defence. Malongo, for instance, would appear more red to me than you based purely on actions if Ace flips for a number of reasons.
Let me just say this again; I can typically tell when a given clue is a red herring; Not always, but generally clues that are linked to a given persona are specifically there for a reason. Most of the issues with red herrings that we've had have stemmed from the fact that we've taken multiple clues from different personas and amalgamated them. In the current instance, the clue pattern is nearly identical to the one that happened when I killed truthbringer on the first set of clues pointing to him.
So lets look at the actual game in which truthbringer got killed so that we can see how you do clue analysis: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=96429
Here's the Day 2 clue post: + Show Spoiler +Liquiville prided itself on it’s cheese, after all it was Liquiville’s primary export. The Cheese factory lay on the outskirts of the village and operated around the clock manufacturing cheese. Four members of the Mafia congregated outside of the factory and planned to butcher the occupants and ruin the towns economy. The Mafia entered the building and split up; two travelled alone while two travelled together.
The first headed straight for the control room. His quickened walk looked almost arrogant as he kept his eyes peeled for any sign of resistance. The Mafioso burst through the control room door and Shikyo leapt from his chair in shock. Disappointed that there was only one occupant, the Mafioso sighed and punched Shikyo in the gut, causing him to fall face first onto the ground. Standing above Shikyo, the Mafioso opened fire on his head. By the end of the incident there was more metal inside of Shikyo’s head than organic material. Satisfied with a job well done, the Mafioso signalled to his colleagues that the Control Room was secure.
The team of two got to work right away sabotaging the Cheese factory. As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted. Elemenope had been alerted to their activities moments ago upon hearing the prolonged roar which had come from the control tower, which then prompted him to look outside his window which overlooked the entire factory. As a security guard for the factory, he knew it was his responsibility to protect the exports at all cost. He launched himself out of the window towards the two saboteurs in hopes to catch them by surprise. However the lanky one was well aware of what was going on. A simple sidestep was enough to have Elemenope come crashing to the floor, immediately the other Mafioso tied him up and strapped a bomb to his chest. No one was able to help Elemenope before the timer ran out.
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Meanwhile in Liquiville’s most holy temple a Priest was channeling all his rage and hate into the corpse of the recently deceased MrBabyHands. Uncertain of what his fate would be, the Priest knew in his heart that whatever the outcome, MrBabyHands must walk again for the sake of the town. The resurrection had begun.
Simply put, this one post, being the first post to even mention the character, was enough to get truthbringer killed. The method was to establish thematic links; The only one that was important? He shot a lot of bullets. Why was that enough to get him killed? Because after looking at every other profile in the fucking game, none of the others could be attached to it. When building a person, the success of your profile isn't based on how many links there are, but how exclusive they are. In the current instance, I see no one else that has the dark/light duality with blindness and hiding.
I can understand people being squeamish about killing someone who's a good player on day 1, but frankly town doesn't have the time to sit around twiddling their thumbs while being too afraid to hit a mafia member.
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[spoiler]On February 14 2010 15:12 madnessman wrote:Yaay I am lucky #51 in this game . Thanks to Incognito for letting me participate despite the 50 person cap! There has been some debate about whether discussing clues this early on in the game is beneficial or detrimental to the health of the town, but I would just like to give my input. As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea. (That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!) However, I do think that there are more subtle clues in the Day 1 passage that may be beneficial to discuss, because they aren't such broad overarching themes like light vs. darkness/shadows. Show nested quote +dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen. These clues stood out to me.. They both concern reflection/illusion/mirror-images. I thought that such clues may be worthwhile to look at this early on in the game because they are subtly woven into the text but refer to imagery that is quite specific. I was under the impression that maybe there would be very few users with mirror/reflection/illusion references in their profiles, so I looked through all 50. My findings: + Show Spoiler +d3_crescentia What is love? A simple reflection of the state of our condition; that which embraces the dialectical play between I-and-Thou - always immanent, but ever transcendent; always between but never entirely encompassed; always now, but also then and forever. Thus we find love in the here and now, as mirrors of our destinies, of our eternities. Phrujbaz The board is a mirror of the mind of the players as the moments pass. When a master studies the record of a game he can tell at what point greed overtook the pupil, when he became tired, when he fell into stupidity, and when the maid came by with tea. 789 I can see what you see not— Vision milky, then eyes rot. When you turn, they will be gone, Whispering their hidden song. Then you see what cannot be— Shadows move where light should be. Out of darkness, out of mind, Cast down into the Halls of the Blind. I'm going to have to admit though that my search was not as successful as I thought it'd be. Only three profiles had references to mirrors/reflections/illusions, which may be a good thing, but they're all kind of a stretch/only loosely connected (especially d3's and Phrujbaz's). I am only slightly more inclined to 789's because in addition his quote "Tell your assassin to aim for her head, because she has no heart." may relate to Show nested quote +dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting. The phrase "most accurate gun" seems odd to me and I would think that it is a clue. Disclaimer: I am definitely not accusing these 3 people at this point in time. As a newbie to this game, I am not familiar to how tightly Incognito constructs his clues/how closely they're linked, etc. Would appreciate any veterans' input. This is an example of a very good post regarding clues. Argue the specifics, bring up theories and support them with information instead of speculation about the validity of theories in general. [/quote]
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