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TL Mafia XXII - Page 75

Forum Index > TL Mafia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
 
 RaGe   Belgium. April 24 2010 23:06. Posts 9613
Profile Blog # 
If you consider my hypothesis of Mafia not believing Ace was a DT after his Caller rolecheck, then these are very suspicious posts:


On April 21 2010 13:51 IntoTheWow wrote:
I'm just curious. Role checks are PM'd to the person who made them, but no one else knows for sure right? Ace could just be making up whatever role check he thinks best fits him. If I'm wrong in my train of thought please tell me.



On April 21 2010 14:06 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ok, time for some wall of text:

About Ace:

He started this little game on biding. The first thing I'm suspicious of is the way he distributed his fake money:

+ Show Spoiler +

First, he gave BloodyC0bbler the most bidding power, even thought he has hardly participated so far. Point? Please don't say it's random.

Then he says he gave Caller the most bidding power to make him fall for his trap. Makes sense with meeple riding 120$ and BC as well, but then again there's other suspicious people Foolishness no money? Did you know he was going to die?

You could be an Assassin and then this game would make zero sense at all, since all it's doing is keeping you in the spotlish, either to be lynched or in Mafia eyes to take you down if they feel you are a threat.

If you were a real detective, I don't think this helps too much, you are just instantly rallying people into what you want to do.

You could very well make up whatever answer it fits you best as mafia. If somebody rolechecks anyone, you can make up whatever is the general idea of that person's role. Then again, with one detective down, it's hard to really know what you are up to. If somebody asks for a self-role check (like Jugan did) you can make up whatever you like, Townie would have a high % of nailing it. If you feel your plan might fall that way, you can just kill him during the night before revealing the role check and hence, knowing what the person's role was.

I'm not sure why you are trying to pull this little game, it doesn't help the town at all in my opinion. At the same time I haven't played other Mafia games here, so I don't know if this is your general playstyle, or something you have done before.




I will post more on other people soon, just want to stop some bandwagon that makes no sense. I suspect of Ace as much as I suspect of Caller.




That last one especially. Not only is he putting suspicion on Caller (which makes sense for mafia if my hypothesis is true), but he's putting suspicion on RoL now that the BC vs RoL thing started.
sometimes I get intimidated by the size of my right testicle
Old Post

 
 RaGe   Belgium. April 24 2010 23:09. Posts 9613
Profile Blog # 
Oh and sorry for breaking this in to so many posts but, if you check the Caller votes, our confirmed Mafia jumped on it pretty late.
sometimes I get intimidated by the size of my right testicle
Old Post

 
 Scamp   United States. April 24 2010 23:48. Posts 964
Profile # 
Dang you guys work fast. Infun is dead before I even wake up!


Anyway, I think I was asked to explain why I thought Rage was suspicious day 1, but it also looks like d3 was specifically asked. So I would like him to answer it first, but if people (and by "people" I, of course, mean Ace) want I can go ahead and answer it first.

Going through d3's posts in the archive, though, I didn't get the same vibe that Ace did, but rather a really bad scumdar sense. That is, either he's scum or his suspicions have been way off the entire game.
Cheese is good for you!
Old Post

 
 RaGe   Belgium. April 25 2010 00:04. Posts 9613
Profile Blog # 
Oh and I would also like to mention in addition to that "confirmed townie list" BC might have been trying to promote, he was also, in separate posts, heavily advocating for creating a confirmed townie ring. That makes that list even more suspicious, whether or not the creator was aware of it.
sometimes I get intimidated by the size of my right testicle
Old Post

 
 Infundibulum   United States. April 25 2010 00:11. Posts 2313
Profile Blog # 
lol
Best tabbing program found at @ http://www.tabit.net - TL MAFIA: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Old Post

 
 Infundibulum   United States. April 25 2010 00:28. Posts 2313
Profile Blog # 
This is stupid. I was so ready to write a fantastic nonsensical defense post that would probably confuse a number of people greater or equal to 1 and I'm already dead.

P.S. ace you messed up, i wasn't on the jpak wagon
Best tabbing program found at @ http://www.tabit.net - TL MAFIA: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Old Post

 
 Korynne   Canada. April 25 2010 01:38. Posts 931
Profile Blog # 
Like motbob pointed out, please don't blindly overabuse zBot. Posts are taken out of context and if you don't follow the date-line carefully you make the error of accusing people of being inconsistent without taking into consideration what happens in between the posts.

I'm going to do an in-depth analysis of everyone, mostly data mining, as in level of activity, general accusations, ratio of good to fluff posts, etc. Will add conclusion about each player at the end though.

List of players is a bit long, so I'm going to post my analysis of each person separately in a post if you people don't mind.
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Old Post

 
 Korynne   Canada. April 25 2010 01:54. Posts 931
Profile Blog # 
BrownBear
Started April 20th, replacing Zona.

Level of Activity
Other than his first 6 posts, all his posts are very far apart in time.
13 posts total
4 "real" posts total
"real" posts cluster towards the beginning

Summary and Accusations:
Started off doubting Ace in the Ace vs. Caller thing (basically time when he entered the game)
Still doubting Ace after Caller is miller'd.
Feels a bit under fire from people trying to analyze his predecessor
Accuses BC of being assassin
Accuses RoL of being scum
Says he'll do an analysis of BM later
Longer explanation of why RoL is scum
Says that he doesn't want to tell medic who to protect, and says vigis/assassins should perform some hits without providing recommendations
Again with the "gogogo medics vigis and assassins." without recommendations.
Does not like Korynne telling medics what to do, saying mafia could kill 4 randoms instead of Ace and RoL
Complains about 14T/7M and doesn't contribute.
No new posts between end of zBot and right now.

Conclusion:
Btw when I count "real" posts I don't mean specifically 1 post, it's more like okay these 3 all look a bit fluffy I'll combine them into 1.5 "real" post count.

Anyway, I think BrownBear looks a bit suspicious. Posts are getting fluffier as time goes by, and less activity as well.

I expect some real content from BrownBear or he looks rather scummy.
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Old Post

 
 Korynne   Canada. April 25 2010 02:56. Posts 931
Profile Blog # 
d3_crescentia

Level of Activity
Posting slightly less these days (not alarmingly less)
21 posts total (not counting pre-game chitchat and his run for mayor...)
Pretty much all posts of some substance

Summary and Accusations:
Points out a couple obvious things (2+ assassins, some comment on BM's plan being stupid, no PMs so BC's plan is silly)
Advocates a double lynch on day 3 (with poor reasoning IMO)
+ Show Spoiler +
Doesn't think Caller is mafia
Complains about Jugan and advocates lynching him (the spaghetti strap analogy xD)
Wants to add love1another to list of inactives/potential lynchees
Points out that LardyGooser wanting a mass role-claim is dumb
Points out the targets in voting (Caller, BM, Jugan, RoL)
Proposal: Forget Jugan/Caller, focus on BM or RoL
Points out that love1another is active elsewhere on TL but not in mafia
Puts his "$50" on RaGe being rolechecked by Ace
Bunch of dead people analysis:
+ Show Spoiler +
Agrees with other people that there is a good case on Meeple
Also points out Darth, Scamp and Inf, who he will analyze later if no one else does so
Points out that JadeFist is being dumb and will probably be killed
Believes KF91 is fairly pro-town.
Eye out on Scamp, Inf in the clear for now, Darth = newb/green
Order of suspicion: Inf>Scamp>Darth, however not much to suggest any of them are scum
Brings slight attention to checking out Meeple again


Conclusion:
Not really sure what to make of him.
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Old Post

 
 Korynne   Canada. April 25 2010 03:06. Posts 931
Profile Blog # 
I'm a bit mafia'd out. (BM's mafia started, reading Ace's and Caller's threads)

I will be back later (thinking I'll do these 2 at a time xD).
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Old Post

 
 BrownBear   United States. April 25 2010 03:41. Posts 2702
Profile # 
To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping.

And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over.

Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too.

So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late.

So to begin, Bill Murray

Early on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue.

(correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis).

Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red.

calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again)

Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray.

After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there.

So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town.
Is the Machine ready?
Old Post

 
 Bill Murray   United States. April 25 2010 03:57. Posts 7055
Profile Blog # 
yeah, i'm green, good analysis.

tree.hugger was obviously an assassin... he's not good at hiding his role. It's not that i'm good at analysis, it's that tree.hugger is terrible about his post style in relation to what side he's on.

on kf91 thinking i'm suspicious: the last time he played in a mafia game, micro mafia 2, I got him killed day 2 because he was acting really scummy. He is probably letting that game influence his opinion of me in this one. I will go ahead and tell you that I'm green so you all don't waste time on me, because I really don't have the time to properly invest into this right now making analysis. I'm more than likely just going to vote with Ace, as I pretty much know he's town.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Old Post

 
 KF91   Canada. April 25 2010 03:59. Posts 171
Profile Blog # 
The list I posted on the previous page was not a suspicions list, because I think you guys are misunderstanding my post. It's just a list of people that I will be posting an analysis of today. I'm on Rage right now, so there's only 4 more people left before I post it :D
Old Post

 
 Ace   United States. April 25 2010 04:26. Posts 13508
Profile Blog # 
hmmmm so role check on Brown Bear might be a good idea? I've already noted the bunch of suspicions on meeple posts throughout the game but none of them even seem convincing. If meeple is scum and it's a gut read thats better than saying "Meeple is scummy" and leaving it at that.

No sir I fully get it, however unless I can unlaunch my nuke there is not much we can do about it. I also wasn't posting as much because I didn't fully read the rules yet LOL! - RebirthofLegend in WaW Mafia
Old Post

 
 Ace   United States. April 25 2010 04:34. Posts 13508
Profile Blog # 
@Brown Bear: Bill Murray is not really that good with analysis. I don't understand how you arrived at that conclusion.
No sir I fully get it, however unless I can unlaunch my nuke there is not much we can do about it. I also wasn't posting as much because I didn't fully read the rules yet LOL! - RebirthofLegend in WaW Mafia
Old Post

 
 Bill Murray   United States. April 25 2010 04:36. Posts 7055
Profile Blog # 
Yeah, I'm a terrible player
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Old Post

 
 d3_crescentia   United States. April 25 2010 04:45. Posts 3663
Profile Blog # 
@Ace: How about this - I actually thought Caller was innocent. Guess it means my scumdar's better than yours?

Actual reasoning: out-of-game behavior comparison, back from when me and Caller were on the same Mafia team in WaW. In chat he kept suggesting ridiculous things (you might even remember some of them) to say or do, and we kept telling him no... in comparison, this game he was ridiculously chatty and playing far more aggressively, like he had nothing to lose. I didn't really care that he used improper terminology or whatever but I guess it's because I'm not that careful of a reader.

As for RaGe, I missed his post where he said to keep accusations out of Day 1, read some other arguments against it and then agreed with said arguments. I was doubly wrong, since I didn't actually read RaGe's post as carefully as I should have in the first place, and then failed to read the responses carefully to see if there was some sort of discrepancy.

That being said, if you'd like to check me to prove how useless I am, go ahead.

@Korynne: my reasoning for Day 3 lynch was a mathematical inference based on having 2 Assassins, not based on any sense of good play. We can afford to double mislynch on Day 3, and in the case of 2 Assassins we needed to hit 1 Mafia. With 3, 4 it would have been less safe in that we would need a double and hit both, but I was hoping that by then we would have been able to root out some mafia.

Going to eat breakfast, brb. We're going to need a plan for tonight/tomorrow.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
Old Post

 
 KF91   Canada. April 25 2010 04:45. Posts 171
Profile Blog # 
Big post. Here we go.

I went through this post looking for grammatical and code errors. If there are still some left, I apologize -.-

BrownBear

+ Show Spoiler +

d3_crescentia

+ Show Spoiler +

Scaramanga

+ Show Spoiler +

Bill Murray

+ Show Spoiler +

Fishball

+ Show Spoiler +

RaGe

+ Show Spoiler +

Scamp

+ Show Spoiler +

Ace

+ Show Spoiler +

meeple

+ Show Spoiler +

tl;dr Version:

+ Show Spoiler +
Old Post

 
 Ace   United States. April 25 2010 04:47. Posts 13508
Profile Blog # 
So if you aren't a careful reader how can your scumdar be better than mine?

I'm not checking useless people. I'm narrowing down that list of 8 or checking people that in the event I die some time soon I can tell everyone "ok this person showed up town" and that's that.
No sir I fully get it, however unless I can unlaunch my nuke there is not much we can do about it. I also wasn't posting as much because I didn't fully read the rules yet LOL! - RebirthofLegend in WaW Mafia
Old Post

 
 Bill Murray   United States. April 25 2010 06:13. Posts 7055
Profile Blog # 

On April 25 2010 04:45 d3_crescentia wrote:
@Ace: How about this - I actually thought Caller was innocent. Guess it means my scumdar's better than yours?

Actual reasoning: out-of-game behavior comparison, back from when me and Caller were on the same Mafia team in WaW. In chat he kept suggesting ridiculous things (you might even remember some of them) to say or do, and we kept telling him no... in comparison, this game he was ridiculously chatty and playing far more aggressively, like he had nothing to lose. I didn't really care that he used improper terminology or whatever but I guess it's because I'm not that careful of a reader.

As for RaGe, I missed his post where he said to keep accusations out of Day 1, read some other arguments against it and then agreed with said arguments. I was doubly wrong, since I didn't actually read RaGe's post as carefully as I should have in the first place, and then failed to read the responses carefully to see if there was some sort of discrepancy.

That being said, if you'd like to check me to prove how useless I am, go ahead.

@Korynne: my reasoning for Day 3 lynch was a mathematical inference based on having 2 Assassins, not based on any sense of good play. We can afford to double mislynch on Day 3, and in the case of 2 Assassins we needed to hit 1 Mafia. With 3, 4 it would have been less safe in that we would need a double and hit both, but I was hoping that by then we would have been able to root out some mafia.

Going to eat breakfast, brb. We're going to need a plan for tonight/tomorrow.


instead of saying "we're gonna need a plan", why can't u actually do something and propose one?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Old Post

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