On April 24 2010 18:07 Incognito wrote: motbob: motbob is inconsistent. Besides his early useless posts, he posts this:
On April 21 2010 15:49 motbob wrote: I don't want to get modkilled, so here I am, posting. I think town is pretty much on the right track so there is no need to delve into anyone's posts or anything yet.
But only two posts later, he says:
On April 24 2010 10:46 motbob wrote: ....I don't think this game is winnable unless we hit on every lynch. 14 town and 7 mafia. Mafia have 3KP in a best case scenario. If mafia just skip likely medic targets and hit random town, and we miss a lynch, this game is basically over. What makes this worse is that (imo) we don't have any likely lynch targets. So town is in roleclaim mode IMO. What does everyone else think?
So the town is on the right track, but then only two posts later we're doomed? What happened? I'm sure the night kills didn't change your mind that much...your posting is inconsistent, and you just seem to be stirring the pot and trying to avoid discussion when possible. Then, you pop up and say we're doomed, likely because you want to out all the power roles. Given that I still think there's at least 2 medics in there, that would help you a lot if you were mafia, right? Trying to push the boat in the direction you want? Seems like it to me.
Your analysis on me is poor. In between those two posts, the mafia that Ace fingered turned out to be a miller. Three townies were modkilled before night one. Five non-mafia players were removed from the game during night one: two townies and three assassins. RoL's role check alone shows us that assassins can be helpful to town.
Nine non-mafia players were eliminated, and zero mafia members were eliminated.
After these events I make my second post. It is a massive misrepresentation of my posting to note that my posts came one after the other, but fail to mention that they were three days apart.
Oh hmm I looked at the dates, but for some reason I thought the modkills happened before then. My bad.
On April 24 2010 22:55 Ace wrote: Wow good post Rage. I just saw something interesting in that last compilation. Looking through Incognito's list of earlier likely innocents almost all of them ended up being useless players.
Do we have any mad hatters left? Role claim now if you are alive.
Yeah, it is a pity that all of them turned out to be useless. 2 players who ended up acting scummy (and miller lol) and an inactive Zona. And now BrownBear is acting somewhat scummy himself. I guess its difficult to make early judgments based on a quick rundown of some posts. And BM's disappearance in favor of running his own game make me think he's scum too.
On April 24 2010 23:06 RaGe wrote: If you consider my hypothesis of Mafia not believing Ace was a DT after his Caller rolecheck, then these are very suspicious posts:
On April 21 2010 13:51 IntoTheWow wrote: I'm just curious. Role checks are PM'd to the person who made them, but no one else knows for sure right? Ace could just be making up whatever role check he thinks best fits him. If I'm wrong in my train of thought please tell me.
First, he gave BloodyC0bbler the most bidding power, even thought he has hardly participated so far. Point? Please don't say it's random.
Then he says he gave Caller the most bidding power to make him fall for his trap. Makes sense with meeple riding 120$ and BC as well, but then again there's other suspicious people Foolishness no money? Did you know he was going to die?
You could be an Assassin and then this game would make zero sense at all, since all it's doing is keeping you in the spotlish, either to be lynched or in Mafia eyes to take you down if they feel you are a threat.
If you were a real detective, I don't think this helps too much, you are just instantly rallying people into what you want to do.
You could very well make up whatever answer it fits you best as mafia. If somebody rolechecks anyone, you can make up whatever is the general idea of that person's role. Then again, with one detective down, it's hard to really know what you are up to. If somebody asks for a self-role check (like Jugan did) you can make up whatever you like, Townie would have a high % of nailing it. If you feel your plan might fall that way, you can just kill him during the night before revealing the role check and hence, knowing what the person's role was.
I'm not sure why you are trying to pull this little game, it doesn't help the town at all in my opinion. At the same time I haven't played other Mafia games here, so I don't know if this is your general playstyle, or something you have done before.
I will post more on other people soon, just want to stop some bandwagon that makes no sense. I suspect of Ace as much as I suspect of Caller.
That last one especially. Not only is he putting suspicion on Caller (which makes sense for mafia if my hypothesis is true), but he's putting suspicion on RoL now that the BC vs RoL thing started.
Although I see the reasoning behind why mafia would think Ace was lying, I still think it somewhat strange that the mafia really didn't take Ace's claim seriously. I mean, out of all players, Ace is one that people would expect to be more rational. Claiming DT out of the blue isn't something I would discount right away, especially coming from someone like Ace. If your hypothesis is correct, then maybe the mafia are all made up of newer players who don't know Ace's style. Although I would think that inexperienced players would panic and want to off Ace right away after Caller flipped red, which didn't happen. Something doesn't line up here. I know from instinct I thought IntoTheWow was town. I'll go back and check his posts though.
On April 25 2010 01:54 Korynne wrote: BrownBear Started April 20th, replacing Zona.
Level of Activity Other than his first 6 posts, all his posts are very far apart in time. 13 posts total 4 "real" posts total "real" posts cluster towards the beginning
Summary and Accusations: Started off doubting Ace in the Ace vs. Caller thing (basically time when he entered the game) Still doubting Ace after Caller is miller'd. Feels a bit under fire from people trying to analyze his predecessor Accuses BC of being assassin Accuses RoL of being scum Says he'll do an analysis of BM later Longer explanation of why RoL is scum Says that he doesn't want to tell medic who to protect, and says vigis/assassins should perform some hits without providing recommendations Again with the "gogogo medics vigis and assassins." without recommendations. Does not like Korynne telling medics what to do, saying mafia could kill 4 randoms instead of Ace and RoL Complains about 14T/7M and doesn't contribute. No new posts between end of zBot and right now.
Conclusion: Btw when I count "real" posts I don't mean specifically 1 post, it's more like okay these 3 all look a bit fluffy I'll combine them into 1.5 "real" post count.
Anyway, I think BrownBear looks a bit suspicious. Posts are getting fluffier as time goes by, and less activity as well.
I expect some real content from BrownBear or he looks rather scummy.
BrownBear: especially combined with his latest qualification of his argument against Fishball, makes me want to stare at him more. Actually, from his first post he does seem to be trying to sow seeds of, "Prepare to kill ace when Caller flips innocent" logic. BrownBear's doubt of RoL seems mafia-ish if BC were mafia. However, BC as we know, flipped town. Although I guess it would be logical for the maifa to doubt RoL anyway knowing that BC would flip town and that they could also get RoL lynched the next day as per the Caller/Ace argument presented by Rage. Scummy looking at this point though, but I'll take a few more minutes to look more into detail on this later.
On April 25 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote: To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping.
And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over.
Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too.
So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late.
So to begin, Bill Murray
Early on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue.
(correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis).
Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red.
calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again)
Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray.
After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there.
So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town.
Also this is some terrible analysis. Mafia would have the incentive to say tree.hugger is an assassin too, no?
On April 26 2010 02:14 BrownBear wrote: Also, where the hell are the vigilantes and Mad Hatters? Unless I missed something, I have yet to see a kill from any vigilantes or the second Mad Hatter, if there is a second.
99% sure theres no hatters left. Maybe a vig, but other than that, I wouldn't look to be reliant on having any other extraneous KP.
On April 26 2010 07:03 d3_crescentia wrote: I was hoping you'd come back and post something that would be a bit more thought out, but alas - my hopes were dashed, and you're going to have to go on my super special awesome list.
Cool. I wasn't alerted to the fact that you have a super special awesome list. Care to share with us?
Anyways I'm running out of fuel for this game. Are you?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
The night, predictably, was dark. Blackness is perfect for stealthy movement. Though, if one listens carefully though, he can hear the thudding of boots. If one watches carefully, he can see the flashing of the blades.
Of course, just being aware isn’t enough.
Ace was always aware, always vigilant, always out on the prowl during the night. Saner men than Ace would’ve stayed inside at night, locked away behind iron bars with the protection of shotguns.
Of course, who ever said Ace was sane?
During this night, like the last two, Ace was searching, checking for information. By 4:00 in the morning, he had almost finished, and was ready to return home to get a few hours of sleep before the day started.
Of course, sleep, like most good things, is certainly in short order these days.
Ace heard the man. The man walked quietly, but Ace’s attuned ears could pick up the soft thudding of the boots. When the man drew nearer, Ace could see the blade flash as his flashlight reflected off it.
The man though, upon seeing who he had run into, turned around and ran away.
Of course, Ace gave chase.
After ten minutes of running, the man made a turn into an alleyway that Ace knew was a dead end. Ace pulled out his pistol, and made the turn.
The man was nowhere to be seen.
Ace walked cautiously, pistol and flashlight out like the cool dudes in the movies do it, searching the corners. Soft tapping? Ace heard it. But where was the flash?
Oh, there was the flash. Right. Behind. Him.
Of course, just being aware isn’t enough. Ace the Detective is now dead. It is now Day 4, which will run until April 29 10:00 KST[local].
On April 24 2010 16:30 Incognito wrote: Hi I'm back, just need to check up on the last few pages in the thread, but I'm just posting this right now to announce that I have taken a hit.
Cool, I probably don't have to rolecheck you tonight anymore.
I'm not really sure how to check this, but it seems weird that if the Mafia targeted Incognito and didn't kill him, they didn't go for him again. Also what does Incognito gain from telling this to us? Anything? Maybe diverting some medic protection from Ace? Thought if Mafia targetted Ace with all their KP, it seems weird they would need to lure medics away.
Of course Ace saw something like this before
On April 24 2010 16:04 Ace wrote: So I was looking back to figure out how that first scum died with Foolishness bombing the poor sap. Going through his posts the only 3 names once again pop up to me: Rage, Scamp and Incognito. Of course I'm going to ignore Rage for now. Scamp and Incognito are the only 2 players I think besides d3_crescentia I need to resolve right now.
On April 24 2010 15:29 Ace wrote: whatever, either way so far from reading back it looks like Rage/d3_crescentia seem to be good role checks along with Scaramanga and Incognito. This way when the role claims come out tomorrow I can let you guys know who's pro-town off the bat. Not too worried about lurking scum yet because they are always easily caught in the end game.
If we are to follow Ace's advice (he turned to be a Detective, so he must know something), we should check on the active players.
RaGe is 'somehow' active. d3_crescentia has been posting quite a lot, but from what I remember he was pretty pro-town, will need to re-check that now.
Scaramanga is hiding as inactive which is weird considering we are kind into the game already. Incognito made some long posts which I'm reading right now.
Scamp... I'm kind of lost with him.
My plan as of now: check RaGe, d3, Scamp, Incognito as much as possible and figure a lynch plan asap, I think we will be needing the double lynch pretty soon.
If you are town, please play an active role, staying quiet doesn't help at all.
IntoTheWow is awesome. April 27 2010 11:21. Posts 31040
On second thoughts, I guess the Mafia just expected Ace to be an assassin, but with the last day results they just decided to kill him with all the kill power they had. It makes sense, super confirmed detective could narrow the mafia lynch pretty fast.
I read some more of Scamp:
- Against BM plan, with good points (no PM system, asking for role-claim, etc). - Agreed with lynching jpak on day 1
Active mafia would probably want to post garbage disguised as real info, just like TheLardyGooser did:
"To me anyway, the discussion at this point seems to be people flaming each other back and forth, largely due to inactivity. Again, this is my first time, but it seems counter intuitive to just flame back and forth when at this point we don't really know anything?
Lets make a plan!"
Or just like iNfuNdiBuLuM:
"Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. I wonder where Zona is though? Busy programming/making love to the robot? I'm sure he'll turn up."
basically a bunch of captain obvious advice. Never calling names, never pointing a finger, or doubting of anyone beyond inactives.
Double checking with Incognitos post history, I see actual train of thought in his posts. So it seems I rushed my last post too much. Ace just mentioned him a lot (along with the others) before getting killed by all mafia, maybe he mentioned one or more interesting names and they got scared?
From Incognito's history I see RaGe as someone who's dropped of the FoS too fast. He proposed a town wide ban on whatever it was said pre-day 2. That basically would have given the mafia 4x2 kills free.
By the way, let me remind of you of some words said by Incognito on day 2:
If you're not going to bother stepping up your game now, don't expect us to believe you when you pop up tomorrow and try to defend yourself after we've accused you.
Reminds me too much of meeple, only posting when accused. Same with Osmoses from what I remember. nAi.Protoss do the same too.
I feel kind of lost with inactives as this is my first time on TL Mafia. Any veterans willing to give a word on playstyles?
BrownBear United States. April 27 2010 11:52. Posts 2702
Well, dicks everywhere. Looks like we're going to have to rely on pure analysis to get through the rest of this. On the bright side, because they stacked all kills, it means we have a bit of an advantage.
I recommend we reread all the stuff people have posted over the last couple of threads, it seems like there's a common trend of people we have our suspicions about. I vote we go off of that.
Is the Machine ready?
Bill Murray United States. April 27 2010 11:59. Posts 7057
d3_crescentia doesnt like me plan analyzes the setup proposes lynching a useless noob gets onto Jugan, and wants Jugan lynched is suspicious of me, caller, RoL, and Jugan wants to lynch jpak
then he composes the arguments of people who have died, and he seems really protown... i had him kinda written off, but he did this, so I believe he is probably green
On April 21 2010 12:19 d3_crescentia wrote: Alright, so we're lynching meeple because he's an indecisive flip-flopper speaking in ambiguous language? Considering Jugan was just modkilled and flipped green, I don't think we should take his 'team player' comment to seriously. I like Incognito's idea about forced post analysis, though I'm still digesting the results of Night 1. Seriously, 3 blues dead and no one bats an eye? Granted we (or rather, Foolishness) got TheLardyGooser, but I'm still feeling things are a bit more stressed than I'd like going into Day 2.
Summary of arguments from dead people, taken from the archives. I'm fairly sure that the archive needs to be updated, so it could be updated with any other posts in the thread, but I'd rather sleep first.
CynanMachae - suspects TheLardyGooser - pro-inactive lynching - agrees with Incognito on Osmoses - dislikes RoL bandwagon
Radfield - contributes to double-lynch discussion (use double lynch early?) - advocates inactive Day 1 lynch - anti-BM plan, suspicious of him - takes notes of particular bandwagoners (darththienan, meeple, infundibulum, scamp, jadefist) - speaks in defense of RaGe - FoS on AcrossFiveJulys
Foolishness - is fairly critical of meeple re: lynches (though this was a misunderstanding?) - FoS on TheLardyGooser (and eventually killed him) - misunderstanding between him/Incognito about spam posting - FoS on RaGe for previous discussion
[nyc]hobbes - against double-lynch on Day 3 - argument with Jugan - for lynching inactives on Day 1
Any common threads here? Both Foolishness and CynanMachae spoke out against TheLardyGooser; Foolishness and Radfield both took note of meeple - albeit for different reasons, and one of those reasons potentially being faulty. More importantly though, I think Radfield had the right idea with looking at the vote list for bandwagoners. We're discussing meeple right now, whom I feel we have a good case for; I'd also like to look at Darth, Scamp and Inf, all of whom I'll leave for the morning unless some kind soul decides to do it for me. As for JadeFist... well, no matter what color he flips his action was just really, really DUMB and he should be probably be killed for it.
On April 24 2010 16:41 IntoTheWow wrote: Scaramanga, motbob and Roffles have barely posted while they have been active on TL in other areas. I know everyone can be busy, but I'm curious on what you guys think of the current situation (no jersey shore jokes please).
I didn't even think of making a joke until you went along and suggested it. Now..must..resist...
In response to your observation, I don't know whether being active on other areas in TL and not posting in mafia thread is indicative of being scum... I would think that if you were mafia, you would be paranoid of people noticing you lurking in the mafia thread when you're obviously around, and would therefore be careful not to post in other areas if you're not posting in the mafia thread. Just my opinion though.. I could be wrong; they could be mafia and just not be as paranoid a player as I was when I was mafia, or then again just town-aligned players feeling lazy and having nothing to contribute... Basically I'm saying that while it shouldn't clear them from suspicion, I don't think such actions should be the CAUSE of suspicion/basis of FoS.
It's funny how he says this and then does it himself. At this time, madnessman has made 65 posts this week and he not contributed to the game that much. What is also notable is the fact that he is able to stay under the radar by making posts at least once every game day, but he has not pushed towards any type of plan, nor has he made any type of conversation with anyone in game.
He has followed through with a similar playing style in the last game I played with him (Micro-Mafia II) Of course, there were far less people in that game, so he was forced to talk a lot more, but he was able to stay under the radar, while lynching the townies.
He hasn't been contributing to the latest "drama" that has been going on, so I don't think there is enough evidence to pin him as a mafia or a townie. But I would definitely keep him on the suspicions list, just because he could be a mafia just lurking around and voting.
On April 26 2010 01:07 Osmoses wrote: Wow... BC a miller too? Seriously, what are the odds? I don't know, but unless we're all millers the odds of Ace getting lucky twice in a row must be infintesimal, he's a detective for sure. His analysis doesn't seem very brilliant (though to be fair I suspected both Caller and BC too ) but he does have rc, so all medics on Ace and... Then what? What do we do with our next double lynch? KF91 has been convincingly pro-town throughout this game and his arguments make sense, so how about his list? Scara, Fishball and Scamp? We can't just go for Ace's rcs, we'll be dead long before we get half of them.
If everyone role claims now, does that really help us? What's stopping mafia from role claiming too and confusing us to hell? We don't know how many blues there are and as previously stated confirming role checks takes at least 2 days (check, kill, confirm).
I was hoping you'd come back and post something that would be a bit more thought out, but alas - my hopes were dashed, and you're going to have to go on my super special awesome list.
First of all, I'm not entirely sure we should actually double-lynch anymore. We don't seem to have any candidates; after tonight's deaths we will have SOME additional information to work with but I'm not entirely sure if it's ideal for double-lynch. Secondly, we have some pretty accurate information already about whatever blues we have left in the game - 1 Medic and 1 DT (Ace), likely no more Vigilantes/Hatters and MAYBE a Veteran. The point shouldn't be to individually check everyone but to narrow down our list of suspicions and hammer those people. We can potentially solve conflicting blue claims by double-lynch; then we can narrow down between our jpak list and those that claim townie.
What happens if it draws out our medic into the open (assuming he/she survives tonight)? Tomorrow we'd look at an 11-6 situation knowing two people are clear at the very least. Ace has been pretty good at finding scum but at this point we need to watch who's pointing fingers and who ISN'T pointing fingers at whom. This is the kind of approach that I was thinking about taking in regards to analysis, but I've been holed up in bed for most of the day, and there's actually a good amount of time before the next Day comes up.
I seriously don't have time for this (I got the job, yay!) but guh, analyzing 16 steps down from me, d3:
Uuuuh, OK so posting stuff that's not brilliant is scummy, obviously I can't be that I'm either lazy or unable to provide an in-depth analysis at the time of writing. True enough we don't have any sure-fire candidates to lynch, but look at the townie numbers: we're dead if we don't do something drastic. It's like when the clocks running out on a losing game in hockey and they replace the goalie with another player; you take a shot at winning by risking to lose harder.
If you want to get better evidence against someone before lynching, you better hurry up.
I call suspicion on d3 for going against this very obvious hockey-logic. This reads to me like an attempt to slow down the town. Sure the risk is great, but we're one foot in the grave already. Are you a helping hand or a mailed fist? (props to anyone getting the reference)
We can be fairly sure that we have some blues left, this much is obvious, what are you getting at here? The truth of blue claims will become evident in the course of the game, the way I see it anyone can call blue (that includes townies that want to draw fire as well) and Ace could've either wasted a rc on him/her (dead now I see so moot point) or you can make an assumption on the credibility of that person based on post history. I'm not blue, but if I were a medic I would've protected Ace as he was a high priority target (due to his bonafide rc's) if nothing else then to make the mafia waste hits on him. But wifom and all, you never know how they're gonna think so you could protect anyone really, they might as well go for the least likely target on account of it probably not being medic blocked. Mafia want fast kills before enough people have died to provide decent information, but they also want to kill off trustworthy outers. It's anyone's call who the medic should defend, tell me again how he/she would risk getting drawn into the open?
We're checking who's pointing fingers, but also who's not pointing fingers. That's everybody. It doesn't matter where the fingers point as the mafia are probably mixing in some accurate accusations with their fabricated ones. No offense, but are you perhaps being purposefully useless?
My verdict: shit, I don't know, I know from personal experience nonsensical posting doesn't necessarily mean mafia, but this isn't d3's first game, is it, so he ought to know better.
Excuse me hun, but what is your name? Vivian? I woke up next to you naked and, uh, did we, um?
Oh, seeing as how BM did d3 I realize I should have done intoTheWow... I must be more tired than I thought. Ugh..... I might do be able to analyze him tonight or tomorrow, but I can't promise anything >_<
Excuse me hun, but what is your name? Vivian? I woke up next to you naked and, uh, did we, um?
Scamp United States. April 27 2010 13:52. Posts 972
Well for starters, go back and read Brownbear's love-letter analysis of him and that should cover most of it. I find it interesting that BB makes a big deal of BM being so good at analysis, while not including the times where BM has been incorrect and also not noting that BM's analysis had nothing to do with catching scum.
But I'm not analyzing BB. I'm on BM.
BM's analysis of d3 is lackluster at best. It's like he went through the first day or so, highlighted one post, then called it a day. How come there's no mention of d3 questioning two people I personally find suspicious - Osmoses and Madnessman? How come you don't touch on the giant post where he calls you, BM, out for basically doing nothing to help catch scum despite saying you're going to step it up?
In general, people seem to assume that he's bored and uninterested, but still townie. I'm not willing to let him off the hook that easily. His opinion constantly flip-flops and sways with the slightest provocation. He said Caller looked townie to him, but as soon as Ace revealed his rolecheck he was on the Caller wagon post-haste. In fact, the only people he seems to have had any feelings about are Zona/Rage/KF91. All KF91 had to do was post up analysis on some players and that was it, he's pro-town. He hasn't talked about Zona or Rage recently, and I know Zona is now BrownBear but that's also something interesting too. He hasn't mentioned BB at all, which means the only thing that interested him about Zona is inactivity.