Pick Your Power Mafia!
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
1. Bill Murray - [1] [1] ? confirmation needed 2. "L"- [1][?] ? confirmation needed 3. Foolishness [1][?] ? confirmation needed 4. Korynne [1][5] 5. Falcynn 6. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1] 7. ~Opz~ 8. d3_crescentia - [4][14] 9. Caller 10. sidesprang 11. Qatol - [6] [1] 12. JeeJee 13. DarthThienAn [8][1] 14. johnnyspazz 15. Amnesia 16. Zona 17. citi.zen - [12] [3] 18. Radfield - [10][1] 19. Scamp - presumably [10][1] He's the updated draft order, as far as I can tell - I picked [8][1]. Falcynn must have either gotten "[1][5+] or [4][1] with Hobbes. Opzz could have either gone for [4][1] or [4][<14]. Either way, he picked [4]. Caller/sidesprang must have picked between [4][15+] and [6][1]. JeeJee could have gotten [6][?] or [8][1] (stuck with me) johnnyspazz could have been [8][1] or [8][?] as well. Amnesia and Zona got anywhere from [8][] to [12][]. Radfield's numbers make NO sense to me ([10][1]). Not pointing the figure I'm just really confused about how the draft order worked. If everyone got duped, then how is [10] after [12]? We really need our top players to announce their numbers - it's possible that BM dodged a dupe and that's why he's on top. But that still doesn't explain why Radfield is behind citi.zen. Scamp's number would help as well. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
And I just realized that BM implied that he picked some random crazy number that was unique. On May 01 2010 19:37 Bill Murray wrote: i don't know if i will take inventor, as I can't trust anyone (they have to give their gifts to someone) Uhh... >.> | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 03:23 Korynne wrote: Uh, considering BM said he picked some "crazy high numba" the only way L would be unique is if he picked a "craaaay-zay craaaay-zay high numba". It could happen =p, no? As long as BM didn't pick 20, there's a chance that L was unique. Else, he won the roll with Foolishness | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 04:25 Qatol wrote: Lots of stuff to comment about: Bill, why are you withholding your number? As I've already explained, your number cannot hurt the town or the SK. It can only hurt the mafia. If you're really green, you would rather that you have the role Inventor than anyone else have it. If you don't want your targets to have anything good, give them something like a gun without bullets. If you actually want to help the side you just claimed for, you will give out veteran vests or alignment check kits because they don't help the mafia but they help the town. Then it doesn't matter who you gave your inventions to. Nothing else helps the town as much as taking that role. Don't try to out think this, Bill. Just think through the logic of the stuff I have already presented. Easily compensated for. First of all, it hands us a mafia with one of these 3 roles. That is a big hit for the mafia. Second of all, just consider taking one of them yourself (preference for the earlier ones in the list of 3). Just leave the threat out there that the "best" roles may not fall down to the mafia where they want to take them. Do not tell us until after the roles are given out. In fact, consider rethinking your choice if you don't trust Bill, L's replacement, or Foolishness. That should account for your discrepancy. I'll post an updated list at the end of this post. Agreed. The numbers probably won't help us in the short run (unless the mafia lie and we catch them), but in the long run, it is a way to find mafia and innocents logically (meaning anyone can do it and the mafia can't argue their way out of it). Thanks for the vote of confidence. You had better pick roleblocker. Is there a good argument why we shouldn't? I haven't seen one so far. Not really. Compulsive Vigilante gets to hit every night. Jack gets 1 chance to use the Vigilante role. For the mafia, Investigate (gives alignment) is only useful for finding the SK, talk just isn't that strong except in the hands of very specific people, and Protect doesn't help the mafia much. Shoot is good. Remember, the Jack only gets 1 shot with each role. I'm honestly more worried about Day Vigilante (which can't be blocked). + Show Spoiler [Updated number list + 1. Bill Murray - high number (unique?) - hasn't completely claimed 2. L (or replacement when he/she gets access) - unique number or [1] [1] - hasn't claimed 3. Foolishness - [1] [1] 4. Korynne - [1] [5] 5. Falcynn [1] [5-20] or [4] [1] - hasn't claimed 6. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1] 7. ~Opz~ - [4] [1-14] - hasn't claimed 8. d3_crescentia - [4] [14] 9. Caller - [4] [14-20] or [6] [1] - hasn't claimed 10. sidesprang - [6] [1] 11. Qatol - [6] [1] 12. JeeJee - [6] [1-20] or [8] [1] - hasn't claimed 13. DarthThienAn - [8] [1] 14. johnnyspazz - [8] [4] 15. Amnesia [8] [4-20] or [10] [1] - hasn't claimed 16. Radfield - [10] [1] 17. Scamp - [10] [1-20] - hasn't claimed 18. Zona - [12] [1-3] - hasn't claimed 19. citi.zen - [12] [3] If you haven't claimed, you are a suspect. I expect the mafia to try and hold out as long as possible to give them flexibility about lying (just in case their number was tripled up). Claim your numbers! Ah, that does explain it. I looked at Ace's post backwards and took the wrong numbers as the right ones. @the argument against your plan, I haven't seen one, but I've seen a reluctance from BM / slight reluctance (or something) from Foolishness. Still nothing from L / his replacement. + Show Spoiler [ My updated number list:] + 1. Bill Murray - high number (unique?) - hasn't completely claimed 2. L/replacement - unique number or [1] [1] - hasn't claimed 3. Foolishness - [1] [1] 4. Korynne - [1] [5] 5. Falcynn [1] [5-20] or [4] [1] - hasn't claimed 6. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1] 7. ~Opz~ - [4] [1-14] - hasn't claimed 8. d3_crescentia - [4] [14] 9. Caller - [6] [1] 10. sidesprang - [6] [1] 11. Qatol - [6] [1] 12. JeeJee - [6] [1-20] or [8] [1] - hasn't claimed 13. DarthThienAn - [8] [1] 14. johnnyspazz - [8] [4] 15. Amnesia [8] [4-20] or [10] [1] - hasn't claimed 16. Radfield - [10] [1] 17. Scamp - [10] [1-20] - hasn't claimed 18. Zona - [12] [1-3] - hasn't claimed 19. citi.zen - [12] [3] On May 02 2010 04:40 Korynne wrote: I don't know. But if any of the first two are mafia we're pretty screwed with this plan. If I was mafia I'd rather let BM or L die, and then have double kill power for the rest of the nights. BM can only hide for 1 night if he isn't the inventor. L can hide for 2 since vigi can't kill first night. Then next night we go oh shi--- mafia killed two people at night. And we can't even prove anything for sure, like if L takes Jack of all Trades, he can hide for 3 nights, or if town votes for the vigi hit to be on a townie during the night there's no reason not to just go ahead and do it. And then if we get paranoid of his role, he might've picked meth man instead and we all go omg we gotta check him and boom, all our investigators are dead (so let's please at least coordinate the rolechecking guys). So I'd say BM's role is pretty safe, in terms of he's outed the second day if he's not inventor. L's is the one I'm worried about, if he is mafia then he can pick meth man or jack of all trades and then when he finally gets outed like 3rd or 4th day then they have already easily secured the double lynch. Foolishness' role is pretty safe for town too, in terms of well if he tries to roleblock he gets killed. Why did you choose to place the compulsive vigilante role as second, Qatol? Also what are your thoughts on having somebody closer to the back of the draft claim copy cat? This way we know if mafia decides to steal it, and if they do we offer them up some "useless" role. I would suggest someone taking the Floridian at the end, just so we can lynch that person if copy cat is taken. Floridian being useless This way if copy cat is not mafia, then mafia will have to kill someone less significant the first night. If copy cat was mafia, it would still be pretty hard for them to do anything since town is watching them. So if compulsive vigilante dies first night, then we just treat copy cat as him instead. So really I see no drawbacks to this idea. Now to pick a copy cat, and to pick the Floridian. I suggest the following format: We want them to be closer to the back of the line, since we're wasting ability to get good KP/investigative roles if we put them in the front. So I suggest picking from 16 onwards. So I select: 18. Zona to be the Floridian. 17. Scamp to be the copy cat. Since both these roles are heavily controlled by town (and the Floridian is pretty much "useless") it wouldn't make sense for me to give these roles to my partners if I was scum, since Floridian pretty much kills one of 4 mafia roles, and the copy cat is controlled by town like the first couple roles. Any issues with this? I don't like the idea of the copycat/Floridian trade... we're sacrificing a player to give a mafia a crappy role, and that's only if they go for copycat. It doesn't tell us who the mafia is =[. Doing this means we 1st day lynch whoever gets the Floridian power, so we'd already be down a player... which is bad, yes? | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 05:08 Zona wrote: I'm glad someone's stepping up with the first proposals for the town. Yet once again, in yet another game, I have to take issues with the blind spots in the plan, as well as the "I declare it, thus it must be so" tone and mindset. I think it's clear to everyone that Inventor and Compulsive Vigilante are by far the most powerful and influential roles in the game, so it's no surprise when you mention them, but I find it curious you lump the roleblocker with them. The roleblocker is a very weak role for town, and while it can be useful for mafia, there are far better picks for them. The only critical situation where I see mafia really wanting the roleblocker is to counter a vocal pro-town bulletproof player, as they will have no other way to get rid of them. It's true that the roleblocker can shut down a town power role, even perhaps the compulsive vig or inventor, but don't overestimate the importance of having such roles active for the town. A compulsive town vig will likely hit a lot of town anyways, and depending on which plan the town inventor follows (night-protect vests, investigate kits, etc), it's similar to a medic, or a cop. To be honest a town inventor might get more mileage out of more wild ideas than the ones presented so far. Still, this is just a relatively minor issue I have with your plan. More importantly is the lack of focus on town grabbing powers that are important to town success. Particularly, investigative roles (tracker, alignment cop) that are very important for town. Now you mention that these are "very important" in your post but then ask that those near the bottom try to get them? Shouldn't players in the middle or even higher up aim to snag these? Your proposal seems focused on denying powers to mafia, which is a good thing. But that's only HALF the story, and missing the important other half: grabbing essential powers for the town. Without investigative roles on the town's side, the town's chances of winning are very low. When I was digging through statistics of played games when trying to ensure that the balance in Micro-MAFIA was as best as it could be - I found something very striking. In the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was shown to be mafia favored. And it's striking how many games are lost for town when the cop dies early on. This showed me that investigative powers are core to a town's success. In fact, given the unknown sanity on the alignment cop - the tracker is likely the most powerful investigative role in the game. This is really why I don't like how you list roleblocker as the third thing for town to grab - when tracker and alignment cop are far more important for town members high up in the draft order to choose. It's all good to deny the mafia strong powers - I agree this is important. But if town gets denied the investigative powers, it will be very difficult to identify the right targets to lynch, unless you are banking on scum making mistakes. But I'll reiterate - in the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was found to be mafia favored. Town needs the investigative powers. Getting investigative powers is as important, if not moreso, than denying mafia killing powers. So focusing on the latter misses at least half of the picture. Finally, I really dislike how you make a declaration as if your proposal is the only one to be followed, and make statements as extreme as "we will immediately lynch you" if someone steps out of line - especially when your plan is flawed. As well, if the top draft order people actually do listen to you, then they've basically claimed their role day 1, making it a lot easier for the mafia to take steps to mitigate their power. A major part of the mafia's game plan is to identify which players have the power roles which are a threat to them - your plan does that for them. I'd rather players make their picks in secret, and only claim when necessary. This keeps the mafia guessing as to who has what power, and who is really a threat to them. Summary and a proposed alternative: Qatol's plan focuses mainly on denying mafia powers (the good part) and misses the boat on grabbing essential town powers, such as investigative roles (the bad part). While he does mention the "importance" of various roles to the town, the way he asks players to pick does not put any real emphasis on getting such roles. Also, he wants certain players to pick certain roles - so if his plan is followed, it's clear to the mafia who owns what powers. Alternative, better proposal: Follow Qatol's emphasis on the compulsive vig and inventor roles, but not the roleblocker. Include the tracker and alignment cop in the "group of important roles". Do not follow Qatol's plan of person x in the draft order picks role y. Instead, if you are a town player high in the draft order, go for one of these, but don't make it obvious which one you have, so it's harder for mafia to arrange their plans on how to deal with these powers. While it's a risk that certain players in the draft order won't get their pick if not all the picks are laid out beforehand, that risk applies to mafia too. If town members DID in fact follow the plan and picked the role that they were told to, mafia can also pick roles without fear of being bumped into vanilla. A few good points in here - but Roleblocker is still relatively important. The goal of getting Roleblocker early is to deny it from the mafia so that they can't roleblock our doctors, our cops, etc. Tracker is an interesting role since I've never seen it before - it does have a lot of potential though, as the chance of tailing a mafia is pretty high. So if the tracker's targets visits the dead person the next day, then we know who the mafia is. Could we arrange the first 4 to choose between these 4 roles then maybe? I had another role in mind that would be good but can't remember which one it was t.t | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 05:58 Korynne wrote: Darth: We're sacrificing 1 person out of 15 to make 1 person out of 4 useless for mafia. Sounds pretty good to me I don't know about you... We only lynch the Floridian if whoever was supposed to get copy cat didn't manage to get it due to mafia. (Town should not be retarded and take the role of copy cat if you're not designated to take it. If mafia steals it then they're automatically turned into a Floridian, which is very easily under the town's eyes because all we have to do is remember it requires n-1 to lynch) I already said, if copy cat isn't claimed by mafia, then we proceed as usual. We're probably not going to lynch someone the first day, so THIS DETERS THE MAFIA FROM SHOOTING IMPORTANT ROLES FIRST NIGHT because the copy cat will just get the same role and listen to town and continue the work. The copy cat is essentially having two "lives" for a role, to prevent mafia from offing the compulsive vigilant and inventor on the first nights, because then we're just going to have another one. Someone at the end of the list isn't likely to get a good role anyway, so picking Floridian is more useful than being townie, because it's the first power role kill that applies to the copy cat. Mafia would be retarded to pick Floridian so we don't have to be worried about mafia trying to do this. There's only 4 mafia, with vigilant and cops and whatever missing a townie isn't all that important if that means making one of the mafia useless in terms of roles. So can we please consolidate our plans? Right now we're ambiguous on how many people in the front should consolidate roles. Also people I've mentioned haven't confirmed whether they will take Floridian and Copy Cat. If they don't post in this thread to by like 1 hour before roles are due, will you take Copy Cat Qatol? Everyone: Can you post your input on both of these points in a post? This way we can finalize the plans for the front and the copy cat/floridian. I think this one is very important. I guess that makes sense... I feel like outside the inventor and compulsive vig, none of these roles are drastically game changing, so that's why I wanted to play it more like a normal mafia game, but having ONE solid plan is better than disagreement. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 06:14 Korynne wrote: I think we should have Jack claim too perhaps? I just realized my most recent plan doesn't work because Jack could screw things up. That seems too complicated, scratch my last idea probably. xD How does the Jack screw things up? | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 07:48 Radfield wrote: This is a great discussion everyone, but I feel like we need to narrow down our focus for now. I think that by far the most important thing we need to be able to do is keep tabs on the compulsive vig and the inventor. Both of these roles double the mafia KP. We need to ensure that regardless of whether they fall into mafia or town hands, we know who has them, and we control them. For this reason I think the first two people NEED to take them. First inventor, then Compulsive Vig(or vice versa, but it was already mentioned this way). That means BM and L's replacement, or foolishness if L is not replaced. What we cannot have happen is that the mafia land either of these roles, and we don't know who they are. Bill Murray, regardless if you ever even use the inventor role, you need to take it simply to keep it out of mafia hands. To do otherwise would be very anti-town. We will likely have two docs, so they can protect you from a mafia hit while you invent pro-town equipment and dole it out. But even if you get killed, you STILL keep the inventor role out of mafia hands, which is a huge boost for the town. If anyone has any argument against this please speak up. Just to be clear, to have either of those high KP roles in unknown mafia hands would be very painful for the town. Agree with this. Priority should be those two... and our first two on the draft should confirm their acceptance of this plan? | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
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DarthThienAn
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I wish BM was more straightforward about things, but I guess this is his playing style... Is there anyone who went for inventor or day vigi, but also, do we WANT to figure out who got what roles? Especially with the copycat potentially in mafia hands, we might want to leave the roles out of this, at least until day 2 or something. Hopefully the mafia pick up something bad during the night. Medics should obviously cover people from the top 4 or 5, people who might have good roles. Role/Alignment Checks should go up on suspicious people. Hopefully we'll have a better idea of who to lynch tomorrow. In response to Qatol's analysis: All of those players are pretty inactive so far, but to me Amnesia sticks out because he hasn't posted ANYTHING relevant to the game "Let us begin!" which is pretty bad in my opinion, although that could be the infamous TL inactivity bug going around. Inactivity is not scummy, but it's definitely not pro-town t.t. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
This game, we have variants of our Cop/Doctors, which means we might not be able to rely on them as much. Maybe the JOAT should consider using his alignment check tonight? The earlier we get information, the better. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 03 2010 01:17 Scamp wrote: I, for one, am not afraid of a mafia copycat. If we get a mafia with a day 1 lynch then they had the role anyway. And even if we lose an exceptionally powerful role we'll still know where it is. I think it might be best to push for BM or Foolish right away, the only problem is whether or not I trust Korynne. Right now I'm not sure. That's a pretty big if imo. This is only my second game on TL, but we were pretty bad at taking out mafia last game, especially with no information to go on. How do you propose we get a mafia on a day 1 lynch? Also, if the mafia copycat picks up a good role, we don't know who the copycat is - how does that mean that we'll know where it is? I think if I were SK I might just shoot myself a few times just for fun. +1 on this though ^^ | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
If you're mafia and comp vigi, how is killing you bad? Killing you immediately might be bad, but by day 2, presuming a power role has been either lynched or hit at night, killing you would be win/win. Assuming Qatol isn't lying, yes, we should wait on lynching BM/Foolishness. You're in the same boat as them atm. Since this all banks on whether you + Qatol are lying or not, I have an idea for our role cop + alignment cop: Both check out Qatol tonight - Role cop's check will tell us his alignment (he wouldn't lie about having no role if he was a townie), and at the same time, it should narrow down the Alignment cop's sanity to either paranoid or insane. 1) He gets guilty back, role cop gets "innocent" back - either paranoid or insane. Next day, gets a guilty back - could still be either, but as soon as he hits one innocent, he'll be able to confirm that he's insane. If he keeps getting guiltys... well either everyone's mafia (unlikely) or he's a paranoid cop =[. 2) He gets innocent back; role cop gets "innocent" - he's sane (sweet) role cop gets guilty (a role) - he's insane (still sweet) This plan might be bad... I'm just throwing my ideas out there in hopes that the town will have SOME plan today/tonight. The major problem I see with it right now is the role claim, so we can't actually use any of this information until later on, when our town roles claim. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 03 2010 05:32 Bill Murray wrote: the fact you all are talking about lynching the person who picked first means: 1) you are mafia, have the copycat, and are scratching your nuts for my role 2) you are the copycat, and you expect me to have a good role 3) you are a terrible town player I think what Korynne and I have been saying is that we need to get the copycat role out of the way before we even consider lynching you o.O. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
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DarthThienAn
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So lynching someone to figure that out is bad imo. | ||
DarthThienAn
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