 heyoka Administrator June 20 2010 17:35. | Profile Blog # |
![[image loading]](/staff/heyoka/depth/flash0.jpg) It felt weird without a banner so I googled a pic of Flash. Look at him! So triumphant!
Stat pieces always begin with a question. When you're me its often triggered by beer, but usually they begin with a question. This time the question came to me while watching OSL finals. In the fifth game Flash opened with a fast command center, and as he was getting overrun with lings I thought this is silly, doesn't Flash always lose when he does this?
I specifically remember a time when there were a lot of posts to the effect of "Flash does silly nonstandard things too often in TvZ". Apparently that same sentiment was common in the KT house, because last fall he began to open 1 rax cc every game and it was the beginning of his prolonged streak of complete TvZ dominance.
Regardless, the game finished and I forgot about it, choosing to spend time searching the forums for angry fans instead of pondering life's great mysteries (why do hot dog buns come in packs of 8 while the hot dogs come in packs of 10?). The next day it hovered in the back of my mind while I underwent a multi-hour battle with Golden Tee. I toyed with the idea of hand collecting the stats of how often he won one of his TvZ games with a double cc opening, and like any good statistician, decided it was too much work.
Then that crazy little monster did it again, only a few days later. This time was different, as not only did he use it three times in a row, but he crushed his opponent every time. As if that wasn't enough, "his opponent" wasn't just some guy, but Jaedong. He crushed Jaedong on his way to fame, fortune, glory, a cool trophy, and the envy of a million 14 year old girls. How does it make you feel to know Justin Beiber shares a fanbase as the orchestrator of a zerg genocide?
Anyway, bricks were ready, mortor being laid. Destiny. My hand was forced. Five paragraphs later here I am, saying "I made a chart and here are some numbers". Its okay because the actual chart takes about 3 seconds to digest all the possible info you look for in a thread like this.
The first step was looking at Flash's games. He has 173 TvZs in our database, but 14 of those are unusable (mostly prelims, one or two games I couldn't dig up online) so effectively 159 total. I then watched all of them long enough see what his first non-depot building was, and made a note for the games that opened with a 14CC. Here are the charts. They are pie charts, and are damn fine.
![[image loading]](/staff/heyoka/depth/flash1.png) See that 3d effect? This is next gen tech.
This is the overall breakdown of how many times he used an early CC over other builds (22 instances found!). It would be pretty cool to actually break this down further into what percentage of play his 1 rax CC is vs 2 rax vs forward bunker type things, but I didn't think of it at the time. For those wondering, if you take out the MSL series vs Jaedong it drops to 12% which still seems like a signifigant chunk.
![[image loading]](/staff/heyoka/depth/flash2.png) Rumble, we hardly knew ye.
This is the breakdown of what players he did it against. Unsurprisingly he does it more against people he has played a lot, generally during a longer series. Interestingly, he is 0-3 against GGPlay using fast cc (all during the same Bo5). He is 6-3 against Jaedong, 2-1 against Savior, and 2-0 against Kwanro. Of the people he has tried it against once, he has beaten them all except EffOrt.
Another note to consider are the maps, if you look at the list of games (below) you see its far more common on 4 player maps, and as well his record is far better on bigger maps. Not surprising, but its nice to have actual data that backs the things people seem to "just know". This the most fascinating cross section of the data to me, and in retrospect I wish I had gotten the numbers for how often it happens using the maps as a constant instead of a player. It seems likely that they are the single biggest factor.
![[image loading]](/staff/heyoka/depth/flash4.png) This is also a chart of things that look like pacman
At 14 wins and 8 loses, he has a pretty solid history with the opener. Even if you choose to not include the series vs Jaedong, 11-8 is still pretty respectable with a build that carries more than just some risk.
In summary, Flash most certainly does not 'always lose when he does this'. My original question answered, now is the time to move on to more important things (why doesn't Donald Duck wear pants?).
Its awesome that the first super hyped TvZ finals ended in just a few minutes with 3 straight bunker rushes, and what will be remembered as one of the last super hyped starleague finishes ended with 3 fast command centers. That statement alone sums up a nearly a decade of serious Brood War strategy development.
+ Show Spoiler [Credits] +Last edit: 2010-06-20 17:43:44 |
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| Sadistx Zimbabwe. June 20 2010 17:38. Posts 5471 | Profile Blog # |
At 14 wins and 8 loses, he has a pretty solid history with the opener.
That's ~64% which is worse than his average (including 14CC), so it's a slightly worse history overall.
It's still a good winrate though, much better than any non-S-class player can hope to achieve in a lifetime on the scene. |
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 Carnivorous Sheep June 20 2010 17:54. Posts 8736 | Profile Blog # |
You watched like a minute of 173 TvZs haha...props to you, did you do it all in one go or did you have to do it in chunks?
I'd imagine I'd've died of boredom doing that  |
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| sob3k United States. June 20 2010 18:03. Posts 4674 | Profile Blog # |
On June 20 2010 17:38 Sadistx wrote:That's ~64% which is worse than his average (including 14CC), so it's a slightly worse history overall. It's still a good winrate though, much better than any non-S-class player can hope to achieve in a lifetime on the scene.
yeah, but you never know what the results would be without the 14cc, maybe he is picking the best opening in an otherwise tough situation.
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 Smix  United States. June 20 2010 18:08. Posts 4483 | Profile Blog # |
This was a really interesting read. Thanks heyoka  |
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| pvzvt Israel. June 20 2010 18:14. Posts 2097 | Profile # |
| now its time to check jaedong's 5 pool |
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| De4ngus United States. June 20 2010 18:14. Posts 4979 | Profile Blog # |
| Very interesting. I remember you talking about this on the goat show, lol. |
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| doktorLucifer United States. June 20 2010 18:14. Posts 793 | Profile Blog # |
| I think this goes back to what Idra said about the "calculated risks," it's also why I think Flash is so good now. He took a risky build, and went to see what kind of high pressure situations (PL, or singles tourneys) he could use it in and play well with. |
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| QibingZero June 20 2010 18:15. Posts 2560 | Profile Blog # |
15 of the 22 games were against zergs who Flash would have a decent chance to lose against in the late game and could use an eco advantage over (Jaedong, Savior, GGPlay), so it's really not a huge surprise. GGPlay was scary in Daum, it's not surprising Flash felt the need to 14cc.
The games vs Kwanro were of course just trying to get him to ling all-in once he saw it off a 12hatch. ^^Last edit: 2010-06-20 18:16:14 |
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| dukethegold Canada. June 20 2010 21:41. Posts 5573 | Profile Blog # |
so effectively 159 total. I then watched all of them long enough see what his first non-depot building was
That's dedication and a lot of free time. O.o
Nice read. What I would really like to know is if Flash ever decides to 14cc on the spot due to impulse.
Anybody know Flash's "general" record with 14cc in other matchups? I wasn't there during Flash's tragic period of 14cc love affair. |
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 Sfydjklm United States. June 20 2010 21:59. Posts 9207 | Profile Blog # |
| this should be front page^_^ |
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| Piste Finland. June 20 2010 22:12. Posts 4708 | Profile Blog # |
So the last ten games with 14cc is 9-1
It's a good build when used right |
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 swanized Canada. June 20 2010 22:23. Posts 2457 | Profile Blog # |
I actually LOVE 14CC and 3 hatch before pool and always defend players who do that
seriously... how often is your opponent not 12 hatching as T or not FE as Z |
| | GGPlay>Zero>Neo.G_Soulkey>Jaedong>killer>rest of woongjin>everyone else| Harem is gay as shit with DTs| stop eating so much and practice Hon_sin| <3 rainbow dash | |
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| Scaramanga Australia. June 20 2010 22:44. Posts 7620 | Profile Blog # |
Awesome article and an awesome read, thanks
And i love the picture of flash when he owned stork :DLast edit: 2010-06-20 22:44:20 |
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| Azrael1111 United States. June 20 2010 22:46. Posts 550 | Profile # |
On June 20 2010 22:23 swanized wrote:
I actually LOVE 14CC and 3 hatch before pool and always defend players who do that
seriously... how often is your opponent not 12 hatching as T or not FE as Z
The problem with 3 hatch before pool is if they scout you in a timely fashion they just get nexus first so it is about even either way. |
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 LosingID8 Harlem. June 20 2010 22:47. Posts 10380 | Profile Blog # |
lol nice writeup
i'm a fan of pie charts too! |
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| Taekwon United States. June 21 2010 02:19. Posts 7971 | Profile # |
| Yeah! Take that moletrap! (Usually critiques Flash's 14 CC) |
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| O-ops United States. June 21 2010 03:09. Posts 2497 | Profile # |
On June 20 2010 22:23 swanized wrote:
I actually LOVE 14CC and 3 hatch before pool and always defend players who do that
seriously... how often is your opponent not 12 hatching as T or not FE as Z
LOL?
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| hyst.eric.al United States. June 21 2010 03:13. Posts 2332 | Profile Blog # |
that was a great write-up.
thanks heyoka! |
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| Roffles Tuvalu. June 21 2010 03:27. Posts 14400 | Profile Blog # |
Pie Charts look like Pacman. =D
Great write up. Always can count on heyoka to deliver them stats. |
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![[image loading]](/staff/heyoka/depth/flash3.png)
