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JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
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JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
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JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
DrH, is there anymore to that PM chain? Did your mysterious person ever respond? Still though I dno't really feel like that's that safe to trust, especially since I'm confused as to how you could have a confirmed person so easily? It would really come down to all that you 'feel' about that person. Your reasoning kind of seems like you're WiFOMing yourself too... | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On November 27 2010 12:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote: So lets call WIFOM on all analysis of behavior/psychology and not analyse this game at all? Insofar the medic gamble makes no sense to me as a mafia play, it was instant and it was something that was clearly not discussed/planned by a group as a whole. I trust this person insofar as I believe them personally to be town aligned but I do not trust them enough to reveal information to them YET. The mafia can "fake" medic perfectly by sacrificing one KP per night which is a winning situation for town as long as we restrict the flow of roleclaims/information to one person who was confirmed by a DT. A DT could confirm me since I've already begun something of a circle, I guess (i'm pming a lot) but mafia will inevitably twist it and make believe that I am surely the godfather. I think it is the best course of action to choose a relatively inexperienced/bad player to be confirmed. Someone like coagulation, georgeclooney, protactinium, or w/e there are a slew of newbies in this game Well I'm not saying that all analysis should be thought of as WiFOM. But right now with absolutely limited information it seems weird. Though I kind of do kind of agree it's risky for Mafia to try such things, so it does make your story more valid. Even so I think it's not a good idea for people to roleclaim (in general) yet since we have nothing to go off of :/ I agree with kitaman when he says we should be focusing on the lynch, since we have a day left now and not much to work off of. Te problem here is that there are many people who haven't posted yet, so one of them should be the target. For instance annul knows the game has started (he posted some spam post a few pages back?) but hasn't posted anything since. And off the top of my head looking at the player list I think these people haven't really posted: Annul and Scaramanga both have posted Harry Potter-related stuff while not actually saying anything else? Kenpachi just has one line and Amber doesn't really have any game-relevant posts either. Neither does youngminii. Rocco, Georgeclooney, Pandain, node haven't posted at all. I think I'm just gonna randomly pick a person to vote in a bit maybe... It's a lot harder to keep track of people online than it is in real life There are more of course and I'm guilty of not posting much myself But I've got some time since it's the weekend now and can post more, so let's get the show on the road | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
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JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On November 28 2010 01:31 Amber[LighT] wrote: A lot of people are going to try and lay traps during the first day. I'd rather just know that we're not going to lynch a mafia and vote for somebody than try and create this elaborate claim as to why we should lynch somebody. We've never been so lucky as to get a mafia lynched on Day 1, and I wouldn't expect any different. There won't even be a lot of information on who could be mafia because of the lynch. It's going to create a big opportunity for the mafia to manipulate play-style. I'm probably going to just abstain for my Day 1 vote. No pressure, no harm Hmm looking back, I think Amber summarizes the game quite well in this post. We've been discussing the DH issue for pages now, and haven't gotten anywhere. I don't think we'll reach any conclusion about this without some fresh information, so we might as well ignore it for now and see what happens later. As Amber says, people have been laying a lot of traps, all behind the scenes I suppose. And from what I've seen from DoctorHelvetica, these attempts are pretty bad. Unless the mafia are active behind the scenes, I don't think they're really posting in the thread as we're already not getting anywhere. The thing is, mafia are going to be active in PMs in a different way than town. They want to fish, and are not interested in analysis. I propose that we implement a policy to publicly announce people who are talking blue roles in PMs, and agree to only use PMs for analyzing/discussing who is suspicious. Other than that, talk about blue roles should be avoided. That way, it'll be easy to catch mafia trying to get blue information. I really don't like the way DH is handling PMs right now. The fishing is getting us nowhere and is just confusing us. Its bad that people are lying in PMs, even if its purposeful and joking. This is getting us way off topic. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On November 28 2010 10:17 annul wrote: i heavily defend attacks against me no matter what, green blue or red. make a note of this. i claimed this in haunted (red), followed it up in insane (blue), and continued the trend in sengoku (blue, though i guess that isn't "proven" yet). why stop now? I haven't played with you before, but it seems as if you did not "heavily defend attacks against" yourself in this game after Pandain posted one. Instead, you waited until Kenpachi brought it up again in order to defend? This sudden outburst makes me suspicious considering how it is contradictory. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
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JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
Jimboslivers – BB DrH -- BB KtheZ--KP Kenpachi -- BB Pandain -- BB Node -- KP EsbenPM -- BB Youngmini -- KP Southrawrea -- BB Deconduo -- KP(test) Darth -- KP(test) It is now 8 for KP, 7 for BB Aeres -- switch from KP to BB ghrur – BB Ghrur flipping mafia definitely makes me think mafia were intervening here. If you look closely at the vote list, Ghrur already has a vote down for Pandain early in the game. He’s not under pressure for modkills. Yet he changes votes at the last minute. Why would he need to do this if he was mafia? I don’t think there’s no reason to do this if Kenpachi is town, because this puts more pressure on him for being the deciding and final vote for BrownBear. I don’t feel like Ghrur’s behavior fits if Kenpachi is town. Way too risky and for no reward. Furthermore, if mafia were involved, youngminii and node are all on the right side of things. But… On November 29 2010 11:10 Amber[LighT] wrote: This I received from Ghrur... I don't know if he was trying to keep me away from others, but he did provide a "list" he was suspicious of: Thanks for not killing me though, Ghrur. ^____^ First off, I think its suspicious that Ghrur wants us to focus on the Kenpachi vote list. Ghrur suggests that we should assume mafia knew BB was mafia. But its clear BB was afk the whole game, so theres no reason for mafia to think BB is the CE. Ghrur’s statement makes no sense, so I think its safe to assume mafia did not know BB was traitor. Ghrur’s plea for us to look at Kenpachi’s votelist is nonsensical. If Node and Youngminii are mafia, it doesn’t make sense for the vote to be that close, given that we know Ghrur is mafia. Ghrur’s deciding vote doesn’t make sense if mafia are on both sides of the vote and the vote is that close. I think this PM is just a red herring. Unless Kenpachi flips green, theres no indication why Node and Youngminii are mafia even if they’re lurking. A lot of people have been lurking this game, and one has already flipped blue. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On November 30 2010 22:30 Radfield wrote: Dr H, you seem almost surely town at this point, as you continue to brazenly spotlight yourself. In fact, it seems to me like you are screaming out to be hit right now, which makes me hope you are a vet/hatter. Looking at what you've said so far, presumably you have a hatter+ Show Spoiler + "The second mad hatter should claim to me. It's possible there are three mad hatters in this game, but it seems unlikely" "A town circle is growing" Really I don't see how this helps us. DH is almost surely town because of the spotlight? Lets assume DH is mafia. If we lynch him, where does it lead us? Quite possibly nowhere, since at this point it seems like people actually are blindly claiming to him. If anyone wants to enlighten us as to why DH's being mafia will lead to a town victory, I'll listen. But as of now, I don't think there's any reason to believe DH's spotlighting makes him almost confirmed innocent. All I hear is bits an pieces of information that do nothing to help inform me of what to think because everything is going on behind the scenes. Furthremore, DH is making way too many unconditional and unsupported statements like "if the second medic claims to me, 2 mafia die". More unconditional orders that in no way holds DH accountable. I have received a message (from DH ) stating that DTA has been "scummy" in PMs, but this doesn't tell me anything. Then he asks for my thoughts. All I do know is that DTA answered my first PM coldly and didn't answer my second which I sent a few days ago. Does this make DTA scummy? I don't know. I don't have enough information to make a good decision. I'm sorry DH, but you can't ask for something in exchange for nothing. This is supposed to be town v. mafia, not you v. mafia. Asking for my opinion when all the information is hidden in PMs isn't exactly going to help me or you make informed decisions. All I know is that the Kenpachi deal is awfully scummy. I can't see how mafia has a reason to jump ship to BB at the last minute if Kenpachi is clean. Unless theres more reason than some WIFOM "feeling" or equally unsupported targets, Kenpachi seems like the best target to me. Reasons like "oh mafia are letting this go too easily" are just WIFOM here. And from what I hear going on behind the scenes, it seems like quite a few people don't like the Kenpachi lynch at this point. As for Pandain's statement: Instead, there's quiet disagreements, but no outright attempt. This makes me think mafia is at least content to let him be lynched, as for some reason people have decided to lynch for really no reason. I don't think mafia would want to make an outright attempt. Given the strong momentum against Kenpachi, I would think outright defense would be suicide. Subtle manipulation or sacrificing Kenpachi seems like better options for mafia. Also this statement: by assuming ghrur's vote implies that he was saving him, you're implying he's mafia. So your evidence that kenpachi is "mafia" relies on the assumption that he IS mafia. Which is not very sound logic, btw . doesn't match with this statement: Also he voted for kenpachi which is something mafia would love to take the opportunity to bandwagon on. Really both are the same type of argument. So I don't see why you endorse the second but not the first. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
He's been present throughout the thread, and has said nothing of interest except bashing DH's play in a game that is supposedly for learning. But what strikes me as odd is his reaction to Kenpachi reposting Pandain's analysis. While I'm not sold on Pandain's actual analysis, the reaction is interesting. He blows up in thread, and further states that he "heavily defends attacks" against him no matter what his role is. Yet he ignored Pandain's original accusation while voting Pandain. And now he's acting like he has nothing to say and doesn't want to contribute to the town. I would like to hear what annul has to say about this unless he's just going to repeat that he doesn't find anything meaningful to say (doubtful). | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
From: DoctorHelvetica [ 9657 posts | Profile | Buddy ] Subject: alright enough BS Date: 12/1/10 20:03 Ignore my BS pm's. I've been under pressure from the rest of the town circle. I've analysed your posts and I'm very very very convinced you're scum. Nearly 100%. I'm the chaos ensuant. And I have 15 roleclaims, the DT, the medics, everything. This is obviously information of value to you if you are mafia. Mafia is obviously playing a shitty game and I've decided it's now or never. If you're not mafia I just kicked the bucket, but I feel confident making my move now. For now we'll wait for the roleclaims to come in, when the time is right I can reveal what I know. You're the only player I feel sure of. Mafia have done a good job of being pretty confusing but I have some experience as a red under my belt and I know someone who isn't helping town when I see it. BrownBear was an unfortunate lynch but it gave me a little bit of credibility. I honestly thought he was town and just inactive, as he usually is. Imagine my surprise. So I'm ready to carry you guys to victory. Like I've said over and over, if I'm mafia town is fucked. It's only a "matter of time" Surprised none of you picked up on the hint. From: DoctorHelvetica [ 9663 posts | Profile | Buddy ] Subject: unless Date: 12/1/10 20:48 you'd rather not kill both medics and the last remaining DT Someone's got some explaining to do. From the tone it sounds like hes fishing, but I think he might actually be CE. If anyone else got this PM post now. If I'm the only one who got this then DH is probably CE. But if I'm wrong then we're pretty much doomed. The other possibility is that he's just fishing. Evidence to support this would be that he doesn't blurt out the blue roles immediately. But if nobody else can reproduce a PM like this I find it very likely that DH is really CE. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On December 02 2010 10:33 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If SouthRawrea is mafia then you would have already known before hand I wasn't really the chaos ensuant, that's a possibility that is POSSIBLE but I feel unlikely. I figure by your UBER late response (I sent that last night) that you needed time to show it to your mafia friends and decide I'm most likely bluffing and you should twist it to try and get me lynched. Uhm lol not everyone has time to spend 24-7 on this thread like you do. But that's ok, keep attacking. You look pretty frantic right now. And if Chaos is your goal you've sure achieved it. Because sadly even after you die town has gotten nowhere. On December 02 2010 10:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote: glasse you're a terrible scumhunter and your opinion is of zero value until you provide real reasons and analysis remember when in insane mafia when you just said "drh is mafia" over and over again and never explained it and were wrong? and you wonder why people say you contribute nothing... analysis of jimbosilvers + Show Spoiler + JimboSilvers "Hey guys, sorry it seems I'm late to the party DrH, is there anymore to that PM chain? Did your mysterious person ever respond? Still though I dno't really feel like that's that safe to trust, especially since I'm confused as to how you could have a confirmed person so easily? It would really come down to all that you 'feel' about that person. Your reasoning kind of seems like you're WiFOMing yourself too..." Discrediting PM circles/post analysis reasoning kinda early on. Townies will make posts like this as well, but it's important to note the goal of this post. "Well I'm not saying that all analysis should be thought of as WiFOM. But right now with absolutely limited information it seems weird. Though I kind of do kind of agree it's risky for Mafia to try such things, so it does make your story more valid. Even so I think it's not a good idea for people to roleclaim (in general) yet since we have nothing to go off of :/ I agree with kitaman when he says we should be focusing on the lynch, since we have a day left now and not much to work off of. Te problem here is that there are many people who haven't posted yet, so one of them should be the target. For instance annul knows the game has started (he posted some spam post a few pages back?) but hasn't posted anything since. And off the top of my head looking at the player list I think these people haven't really posted: Annul and Scaramanga both have posted Harry Potter-related stuff while not actually saying anything else? Kenpachi just has one line and Amber doesn't really have any game-relevant posts either. Neither does youngminii. Rocco, Georgeclooney, Pandain, node haven't posted at all. I think I'm just gonna randomly pick a person to vote in a bit maybe... It's a lot harder to keep track of people online than it is in real life There are more of course and I'm guilty of not posting much myself But I've got some time since it's the weekend now and can post more, so let's get the show on the road " Hey look, a big fucking post saing nothing at all. This is what people do, they come in say "hey everybody contribute, focus on the lynch, roleclaiming is bad, obvious point, obvious point, obvious point. This isn't a game relevant post. He puts a minor attack on annul. mafia want to distance themselves from other mafia. I know for certain that one of annul's favorite scum strategies is faking disagreements and orchestrating fake accusations and disagreements among scum. I'm not convinced by this attack or future attacks. On November 28 2010 06:08 JimboSilvers wrote: I'm going to go vote for BrownBear, seeing as how he steps in, accuses somebody of inactivity, and then promptly absconds again. Hopefully I'll be back before deadline to see if he is posting, as to perhaps remove this inactivity vote. Inconclusive. BB was the bandwagon the mafia chose however. "Hmm looking back, I think Amber summarizes the game quite well in this post. We've been discussing the DH issue for pages now, and haven't gotten anywhere. I don't think we'll reach any conclusion about this without some fresh information, so we might as well ignore it for now and see what happens later. As Amber says, people have been laying a lot of traps, all behind the scenes I suppose. And from what I've seen from DoctorHelvetica, these attempts are pretty bad. Unless the mafia are active behind the scenes, I don't think they're really posting in the thread as we're already not getting anywhere. The thing is, mafia are going to be active in PMs in a different way than town. They want to fish, and are not interested in analysis. I propose that we implement a policy to publicly announce people who are talking blue roles in PMs, and agree to only use PMs for analyzing/discussing who is suspicious. Other than that, talk about blue roles should be avoided. That way, it'll be easy to catch mafia trying to get blue information. I really don't like the way DH is handling PMs right now. The fishing is getting us nowhere and is just confusing us. Its bad that people are lying in PMs, even if its purposeful and joking. This is getting us way off topic. " "I don't think mafia are really posting in the thread" assuming he is scum he is trying to really press the idea of an inactive mafia to make people focus on inactives. Focusing on inactives is bad because the mafia will choose which inactives get focused down. You can't choose someones analysis of your posting. "Talk about blue roles should be avoided" Hoo boy, I don't like the way he's phrasing this. "Publicly announce people who are talking blue roles", is a great way for mafia to push bandwagons onto innocent townies who are fishing for people to protect/investigate or simply trying to lead town like I am. There isn't a lot positive about this post but there is a lot of negative. I haven't played with you before, but it seems as if you did not "heavily defend attacks against" yourself in this game after Pandain posted one. Instead, you waited until Kenpachi brought it up again in order to defend? This sudden outburst makes me suspicious considering how it is contradictory. This attack isn't very strong but I find it strange that JimboSilvers focuses so hard on annul in the thread yet never brings annul up when we're talking about mafia suspects in PM. He never mentioned annul once in PM and kept the focus on players like youngminii (who would be a clear blue suspect from his low-key play) It doesn't make me think annul is scum. It makes me think jimbosilvers isn't actually committed to the idea that annul is scum. If JS was a townie interested in scumhunting and getting annul lynched, he would DEFINITELY mention it in our PMs which I will publish in a .txt file "Hmm I was thinking Kenpachi was innocent at that point, but this makes me wonder again...I'll go through the vote list again to see what I can find." Indecisiveness is normal for a townie and for a mafia. Inconclusive. mafia have a vested interest in qualification though. Jimboslivers – BB DrH -- BB KtheZ--KP Kenpachi -- BB Pandain -- BB Node -- KP EsbenPM -- BB Youngmini -- KP Southrawrea -- BB Deconduo -- KP(test) Darth -- KP(test) It is now 8 for KP, 7 for BB Aeres -- switch from KP to BB ghrur – BB Ghrur flipping mafia definitely makes me think mafia were intervening here. If you look closely at the vote list, Ghrur already has a vote down for Pandain early in the game. He’s not under pressure for modkills. Yet he changes votes at the last minute. Why would he need to do this if he was mafia? I don’t think there’s no reason to do this if Kenpachi is town, because this puts more pressure on him for being the deciding and final vote for BrownBear. I don’t feel like Ghrur’s behavior fits if Kenpachi is town. Way too risky and for no reward. Furthermore, if mafia were involved, youngminii and node are all on the right side of things. But… On November 29 2010 11:10 Amber[LighT] wrote: This I received from Ghrur... I don't know if he was trying to keep me away from others, but he did provide a "list" he was suspicious of: Show nested quote + Hey, nights about to end, and we're about to get some new information, but before that happens, can I ask you what you think about Town's reasoning on who's mafia? I understand that I draw suspicion because I basically cemented Brownbear's lynch, and if we look at him as a townie, it's like, yeah durrr people who voted BB. But the thing is, I don't think that's actually a totally fair assumption to make. I mean, did you see Protact's way of "fishing?" I think it's the scum's way of getting in touch with the chaos ensuant. Then, guess what, Protact just happened to vote FOR Kenpachi to maybe help save Brownbear? Anyway, I think it makes sense that mafia DID get in contact with BB, and in that case, we shouldn't be focusing on who voted BB, but who voted Kenpachi. This includes: Barunder Protactinium Node KtheZ Youngminii I'd say Node and Youngminii are fairly quiet, which both makes me think they could be lurking mafia. However, I'd like to get your opinion on this because while it makes sense, the rest of the town seemed to have just glossed over it. =/ Thanks for not killing me though, Ghrur. ^____^ First off, I think its suspicious that Ghrur wants us to focus on the Kenpachi vote list. Ghrur suggests that we should assume mafia knew BB was mafia. But its clear BB was afk the whole game, so theres no reason for mafia to think BB is the CE. Ghrur’s statement makes no sense, so I think its safe to assume mafia did not know BB was traitor. Ghrur’s plea for us to look at Kenpachi’s votelist is nonsensical. If Node and Youngminii are mafia, it doesn’t make sense for the vote to be that close, given that we know Ghrur is mafia. Ghrur’s deciding vote doesn’t make sense if mafia are on both sides of the vote and the vote is that close. I think this PM is just a red herring. Unless Kenpachi flips green, theres no indication why Node and Youngminii are mafia even if they’re lurking. A lot of people have been lurking this game, and one has already flipped blue. So I doubt the mafia changed their bandwagon to "save" Kenpachi. This is an idea that would be supported by mafia in the case that Kenpachi is innocent which I feel is likely. His conclusion is: there is no conclusion. So another big post that looks like he's making a huge contribution but isn't saying anything. "Mafia don't know BB was CE" OH SHIT RLY TELL ME MORE I'm trying to find the point here. See if you can. " Really I don't see how this helps us. DH is almost surely town because of the spotlight? Lets assume DH is mafia. If we lynch him, where does it lead us? Quite possibly nowhere, since at this point it seems like people actually are blindly claiming to him. If anyone wants to enlighten us as to why DH's being mafia will lead to a town victory, I'll listen. But as of now, I don't think there's any reason to believe DH's spotlighting makes him almost confirmed innocent. All I hear is bits an pieces of information that do nothing to help inform me of what to think because everything is going on behind the scenes. Furthremore, DH is making way too many unconditional and unsupported statements like "if the second medic claims to me, 2 mafia die". More unconditional orders that in no way holds DH accountable. It's obvious that explanations that sort of thing is being withheld to protect the town. "Everything is going on behind the scenes." Then get involved? If I'm mafia, the mafia have already won. If I'm mafia the mafia won on night 1. In the case that I'm godfather, it's really just a case of how long I'm willing to wait before I drop the bomb and kill all the blues. I have received a message (from DH ) stating that DTA has been "scummy" in PMs, but this doesn't tell me anything. Then he asks for my thoughts. All I do know is that DTA answered my first PM coldly and didn't answer my second which I sent a few days ago. Does this make DTA scummy? I don't know. I don't have enough information to make a good decision. I'm sorry DH, but you can't ask for something in exchange for nothing. This is supposed to be town v. mafia, not you v. mafia. Asking for my opinion when all the information is hidden in PMs isn't exactly going to help me or you make informed decisions. Ask for what you're thinking? Yes asking for your opinion is helpful, sharing your opinion is helpful. So far you've had zero opinions except: people should be active we don't know anything drh is mafia maybe or maybe not dta is scum maybe or maybe not All I know is that the Kenpachi deal is awfully scummy. I can't see how mafia has a reason to jump ship to BB at the last minute if Kenpachi is clean. Unless theres more reason than some WIFOM "feeling" or equally unsupported targets, Kenpachi seems like the best target to me. Reasons like "oh mafia are letting this go too easily" are just WIFOM here. And from what I hear going on behind the scenes, it seems like quite a few people don't like the Kenpachi lynch at this point. As for Pandain's statement: Supporting the kenpachi switch = mafia idea, a notion that at least 1 mafia is vocally supporting guaranteed. Instead, there's quiet disagreements, but no outright attempt. This makes me think mafia is at least content to let him be lynched, as for some reason people have decided to lynch for really no reason. I don't think mafia would want to make an outright attempt. Given the strong momentum against Kenpachi, I would think outright defense would be suicide. Subtle manipulation or sacrificing Kenpachi seems like better options for mafia. Notice he repeats the original theme of "mafia are probably being quiet". Also this statement: by assuming ghrur's vote implies that he was saving him, you're implying he's mafia. So your evidence that kenpachi is "mafia" relies on the assumption that he IS mafia. Which is not very sound logic, btw . doesn't match with this statement: Also he voted for kenpachi which is something mafia would love to take the opportunity to bandwagon on. Really both are the same type of argument. So I don't see why you endorse the second but not the first. " Why did we let him get away with this shitty argument? they match up just fine. "Call kenpachi mafia because he IS mafia then vote for him" is something mafia WOULD love to do. He doesn't see this from a town perspective, his logic is wrong. Sloppy defense. On December 01 2010 09:08 JimboSilvers wrote: Besides the slew of inactives and semi-inactives, (georgecloony, protactinium, cubedin, etc.) and PM dodgers (Glasse, DTA, Pandain, etc.), my top suspect is annul. He's been present throughout the thread, and has said nothing of interest except bashing DH's play in a game that is supposedly for learning. But what strikes me as odd is his reaction to Kenpachi reposting Pandain's analysis. While I'm not sold on Pandain's actual analysis, the reaction is interesting. He blows up in thread, and further states that he "heavily defends attacks" against him no matter what his role is. Yet he ignored Pandain's original accusation while voting Pandain. And now he's acting like he has nothing to say and doesn't want to contribute to the town. I would like to hear what annul has to say about this unless he's just going to repeat that he doesn't find anything meaningful to say (doubtful). Bad attack on Annul. None of the attacks on him were worth defending honestly. Annul: what better way to teach the game than to show them precisely what the "non-learning" games are all about? but okay, sure. real analysis? the only thing we need now is pandain to attempt to get people to claim to him in PMs and to start a circle and we have a standard TL mafia game. drh is already vying for day 1 leader so we are certainly off to the normal start. thing of note is that the OP explicitly says not all roles may exist in the game. dont do analysis assuming all these roles are there, especially when trying to reverse engineer rolecounts through the guise of "well, THIS is balanced!" etc. also if this is a "learning game" then i guess we should stick to the bread and butter playstyles and not go all out with crazy trickeries and gambits and stuff pointless post of nothing, no one cares ps i voted for darth because a random vote on drh is pretty frowntown given the daily circumstances I agree :3 haunted and insane actually had a lot of content to discuss on day 1, surprisingly enough because of elections and clues wifom baby yeah <3 shut up drh PMed me before day post even came up... - Hide Spoiler - From: DoctorHelvetica [ 9498 posts | Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: sup witch buddy Date: 11/26/10 12:13 and by everybody i mean like 5 people becuase im too lazy to pm everyone ghrur is dumb and thinks i am actually mafia who didn't get the pm with my teammates SIGH ----------------------------------------- Original Message From annul: what? if youre claiming witch then i think you just broke the game, cuz i did not get sent a witch role =\ ----------------------------------------- Original Message From DoctorHelvetica: lol so who else in our team? so i mean drh seems to be messaging everybody with garbage like this; its not really surprising in a newbie game that maybe 1 person is going to bite. so of course i dont believe any PM claims. i do think though that you can look at what is said in PM as evidence for day 1 lynches, but not in a "well he claimed so we believe him" way Criticism on me, slight downtalk on the use of PMs Original Message From DoctorHelvetica: maybe i didnt like his response to my pm Hide nested quote - despite his defense of you, i like coagulation of this list. he has said a LOT of stuff and yet almost nothing at all at the same time. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From DoctorHelvetica: pandain, coagulation, georgecloony, kitaman27, youngminii, and node you have to pick 1 to lynch, who would it be? I remember this PM. Already annul is talking as though he doesn't trust me, yet he says "even though he defended you" as though he's "sure" I'm town. This is a common mafia slip because they know everyones alignment (except CE's) RIGHT? Wrong. Thinking about this more deeply it's hardly a mafia slip. Here is the more likely scenario. He's FoSing the guy who defended me the most, of course he'd point that out ot me since it would be in my direct interest to have someone survive that is on my side whether I'm mafia or not. It's completely inconclusive. Later jimbosilvers comes out and says "oh thats scummy and suspicious" without explaining why. BS. i heavily defend attacks against me no matter what, green blue or red. make a note of this. i claimed this in haunted (red), followed it up in insane (blue), and continued the trend in sengoku (blue, though i guess that isn't "proven" yet). why stop now? You didn't do that against the one pandain posted not too long ago before this one. And you didn't do it for anything else in this game annul. i think he should random a green and give him the DT =\ DECISIVELY pro-town idea dunno why'd a mafia suggest this unless to make themselves look more like a townie. ;D ... ;D that said, the other, more probable alternative way this could fuck town over (other than him being godfather i mean) is that he is actually mafia and his "DT" is either another mafia player and/or doesnt exist. in a game like this with only 1 mafia team, sacrificing 1 member for completely fucking the town circle is a good play, especially if he can get a few other blues out of the deal. this was bad in haunted because the red teams wanted to kill the other red team and NOT the town, but here with only 1 red team and their target the town, those blues will fall pretty quickly to a play like that. That's actually a fair point. The more I read this the less convinced I am annul is mafia. Repetition can make you suspicious of somebody. Keep saying "hey annul is suspicious" and people will believe it eventually. Even I voted for him. tbh this game is prematurely fucked for the town due to a DT suiciding so like i really have stopped paying much attention since then if im still alive later on in the game im sure i will pay more attention to the stuff (and, specifically, look at individual posts of the ones still alive), but in the meanwhile ill give cursory skims and vote my gut and/or what people i think are town are voting. for some reason i just do not "feel" this game =( id almost say "go and kill me" but i mean you really are better off just finding scum, not lynching a townie for not caring so much on day 2 not that i think i am in any danger whatsoever, mind you Now this is suspicious. DT for a Mafia is a fair trade PLUS we got CE. Why would you be depressed about this? Night 1 was an overwhelming victory for town and town is still in the advantageous position. I have mafia by the balls (any action they make will be scrutinized heavily within both the inner and outer town circles which have multiple layers of confirmation (i feel smart for doing this just let me pat myself on the backand credit goes to the DT too) and mafia can now be pinpoined by their hit choices by so many people there is no way they can see it coming) I can explain the layered town circle thing after the game ends, I think this is the best way to do town circles, I'll work on improving it for my next game as town. He did martyr himself which is a shitty move but NOT a mafia one. No mafia says "lynch me im sick of this game", especially not a conscientous and careful mafia player such as annul. btw, it goes against my mafia DNA to "give up" - i am only explaining why i am not so active in this one right now when it gets deeper in the game if i am still here i will do my part, for sure. Yeah, my point exactly. jcarl the reason for that is because i feel it is usually better to say nothing if you have nothing to say. when i have stuff to say believe me i say it. this goes for whatever color i happen to be. notice in haunted i pretty much said nothing of significance for the first two days and then when i felt i had a chance to affect the game, i started making noise... not claiming red by any stretch, but that is just how i play no matter what. and right now if i were to speak up on something or FOS someone, it wouldnt be strong. i dont feel it right now. when i do, i will, thats all im saying. I think everyone has felt the same way. Why force a player to post when they have nothing to say? My conclusion from this is that annul isn't mafia at all. That jimbosilvers is part of a mafia conspiracy to incriminate annul based on nothing but pure bullshit. Annul isn't playing like mafia he is playing like someone who has little to no town experience and doesn't know what to do. Fact: people who are in a mafia team make LESS mistakes but more SIGNIFICANT mistakes Townies: make many mistakes as they are unsure of their convictions and recieve information constantly from both sides of alignment, mafia have tunnel vision. You have to exploit the fact that mafia have tunnel vision and have information town doesn't to find them. I think this is what I've done. Anyone else feel free to contribute their analysis of my analysis. And don't go analysing everybody, that's a common mafia scam. Keep it focused. jimbosilvers and annul. "I don't like how his play has been nothingness and critical of DH" Really? How critical? Those 2 half assed warnings everyone made about roleclaiming and how I'm fishing? Yeah, very scathing. Here are your PMs with me: http://www.mediafire.com/?mt2bit41xhb1pzm I'll be focusing on JimboSilvers. but I have posts ready on Aeres and Radfield as well. Well at least FINALLY you decide to post some analysis. But sorry, there's a lot of things wrong with your post. "I don't think mafia are really posting in the thread" assuming he is scum he is trying to really press the idea of an inactive mafia to make people focus on inactives. Focusing on inactives is bad because the mafia will choose which inactives get focused down. You can't choose someones analysis of your posting. "Talk about blue roles should be avoided" Hoo boy, I don't like the way he's phrasing this. "Publicly announce people who are talking blue roles", is a great way for mafia to push bandwagons onto innocent townies who are fishing for people to protect/investigate or simply trying to lead town like I am. For one, you can't assume I'm scum in order to prove that I'm scummy. If focusing on inactives means making inactives talk. Which hey! hasn't been done this game. "Talk about blue roles should be avoided"...hey, look where that has got us huh? "great way for mafia to push bandwagons onto innocent townies who are fishing for people to protect/investigate or simply trying to lead town like I am". No. From the games I've read, every town circle idea has combusted into flames. And yet you continue to insist this is pro-town. Notice how you also try to make yourself seem so innocent here when you're clearly not. This attack isn't very strong but I find it strange that JimboSilvers focuses so hard on annul in the thread yet never brings annul up when we're talking about mafia suspects in PM. He never mentioned annul once in PM and kept the focus on players like youngminii (who would be a clear blue suspect from his low-key play) It doesn't make me think annul is scum. It makes me think jimbosilvers isn't actually committed to the idea that annul is scum. If JS was a townie interested in scumhunting and getting annul lynched, he would DEFINITELY mention it in our PMs which I will publish in a .txt file I don't watch this thread 24-7. Besides, you know what I've said in thread. Why do I have to repeat myself in PMs? Contradicting myself would be awfully suspicious, don't you think? I also never "focused" on players like youngminii. The person who was focusing on DTA/Node/YM and those people was YOU. I suppose when you post that pm bundle in your .txt file everyone can see for themselves. And like I said, you are giving me no information by spouting all this "XX is scummy in PMs" and so forth. I don't have your PMs and I can't read your mind. I was never "set" on annul. He was the scummiest in my mind (after Kenpachi), but nothing conclusive. It certainly doesn't help when you're being anti-town and refusing to show concrete reasoning on other people. If I don't have enough information to go off, I can't do anything. So I doubt the mafia changed their bandwagon to "save" Kenpachi. This is an idea that would be supported by mafia in the case that Kenpachi is innocent which I feel is likely. His conclusion is: there is no conclusion. So another big post that looks like he's making a huge contribution but isn't saying anything. "Mafia don't know BB was CE" OH SHIT RLY TELL ME MORE I'm trying to find the point here. See if you can. Well yes, now that we know that Kenpachi is town, of course mafia didn't switch the bandwagon to save him. Hindsight is perfect huh? In the context of what information we had back then, it was perfectly reasonable to think Kenpachi was saved by the mafia. And of course my post has a conclusion. My point was that Ghrur's accusation of Node/YM didn't make sense. The context is that people were debating whether there was any deception going on with that Ghrur PM. And when Ghrur is saying "well we should assume mafia was in contact with BB", I'm pointing out that that is nonsensical. You're nitpicking and trying to isolate my words out of context. It's obvious that explanations that sort of thing is being withheld to protect the town. "Everything is going on behind the scenes." Then get involved? If I'm mafia, the mafia have already won. If I'm mafia the mafia won on night 1. In the case that I'm godfather, it's really just a case of how long I'm willing to wait before I drop the bomb and kill all the blues. You've got it totally wrong here. In IRL mafia games I'm used to, town benefits from discussion in thread. Town doesn't need to be "protected" from information. Unless you're handling dangerous information like the information you've been receiving which never should have gotten to you. Look where its got us now? "Then get involved?" Mafia is a forum game, not a secret alliance game. Regardless, I did try to PM people. Like Glasse, KtheZ, Pandain, DTA, you, jcarls, Kenpachi, South. Guess what? Only 3 people responded to me. This is not a problem on my end, its a sort of snobish elitism on your end. Town needs information. In the thread. Because even when I try, you guys don't seem interested in acknowledging me. Ask for what you're thinking? Yes asking for your opinion is helpful, sharing your opinion is helpful. So far you've had zero opinions except: people should be active we don't know anything drh is mafia maybe or maybe not dta is scum maybe or maybe not I can't make opinions when I have no information to analyze. All I know was stuff on Kenpachi and annul. Asking me about something I have no knowledge about is unfair, especially when you give me nothing to analyze. And if you refuse to do so like you have done, I have no option but to go with the targets I have information on. Of course I'd love to hear what you have to offer, but you keep refusing to give them. You just keep asking me opinions on people who won't respond to my PMs and aren't saying anything meaningful in thread. Why did we let him get away with this shitty argument? they match up just fine. "Call kenpachi mafia because he IS mafia then vote for him" is something mafia WOULD love to do. He doesn't see this from a town perspective, his logic is wrong. Sloppy defense. A misinterpretation. Pandain's point is that you cant assume someone is mafia in order to make them fit your reasoning for what scum does. Yet he contradicts himself by making that same assumption to vote DTA. Hypocrisy here. Bad attack on Annul. None of the attacks on him were worth defending honestly. How is this a bad attack? You seem to be the fan of the "poke people and make them react" style. Annul reacted poorly. And yet you dismiss this as a bad argument? Please, the hypocrisy is killing me here. I remember this PM. Already annul is talking as though he doesn't trust me, yet he says "even though he defended you" as though he's "sure" I'm town. This is a common mafia slip because they know everyones alignment (except CE's) RIGHT? Wrong. Thinking about this more deeply it's hardly a mafia slip. Here is the more likely scenario. He's FoSing the guy who defended me the most, of course he'd point that out ot me since it would be in my direct interest to have someone survive that is on my side whether I'm mafia or not. It's completely inconclusive. Later jimbosilvers comes out and says "oh thats scummy and suspicious" without explaining why. BS. I never used this PM in my analysis. I used this post: On November 28 2010 10:13 annul wrote: you quote pandain and add absolutely nothing to the conversation, its like "HEY DID YOU GUYS NOT SEE THAT POST??!?!?!?!" yeah they did. Stop twisting my arguments. Maybe you didn't even actually read it. Anyway, the rest of your argument makes no sense. (Well none of it does actually). Either way, sure, go ahead and focus on me. You won't get anywhere. The person who is obviously scum (or CE) right now is DH. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
jimbosilvers defense was ridiculous, he's so obvious I'd just like to vig hit him but we can lynch him if everyone is uncomfortable about radfield. i'm very comfortable lynching rad though. Yup. I'm apparently so obvious that you don't even have to bother with responding to my defense. Nice avoidance tactics there. Anyway, a bunch of people are running around supporting the terrible argument that "oh noes if DH is mafia we doomed anyway so we might as well keep trusting him!" You've been sheeped by him the whole game. And you continue to want to sheep him. Way to go. Either way, the logic for this argument is atrocious. Nobody has given any good reasons for us to go flock to DH. They're all based on an idea that just isnt true. Yeah, we just have to accept that if Doc is mafia, the game has already been lost for town. Which is why I'm putting my faith in him. Assuming this game is balanced most of the other normal games I've read, we're now at 15 town to 5 mafia. Which is not unwinnable at all. And looking at the dead blues, there are probably no more blues left besides South's "DT", and maybe a veteran or two. Town doesn't really benefit from knowing who the veterans are, only the DTs. And there's probably only one left. Given that this "DT" is already in DH's inner circle, the reasons for "keeping DH because we're doomed anyway" is bad. DH said he shared everything with his circle. This means that DH isn't really crucial to the town's information library. There are 3-4? other people who share this information. DH as town is no more important than anyone else in the circle. He is not as crucial as he wants you to think. This idea that we need to trust DH is blatantly false. Nobody has told us why the game is already lost if DH is mafia. I've just shown how eliminating DH won't destroy all of our information and how there are likely few blue roles that would benefit from DH. Using "he knows everything" as an excuse to keep him alive is terrible. If we're going to win this game, we need to kill the elder. And as stated before by many people, if DH is mafia, hes the elder. We need to kill him right now to lower mafia KP. DH's play this game has been fantastic. He has used propaganda to make himself appear "critical" to the town's survival. Futhermore, he's been constantly saying that "since he already has so many blue roles, the rest might as well claim to him" along with "if I'm mafia you're all screwed". The fact is that there is no real reason why town is screwed if DH knows the blue roles. Is it a major blow to the town? Yes. Can town overcome infiltration of the blue circle? Yes, but its difficult. Don't dismiss the idea that he's mafia just because he knows things. Vote based on who is mafia, don't excuse someone just because they appear valuable. DH wants you to think he's valuable. This is a pretty blatant fraud. Even his circle seems to believe him. But in the event that you prefer to follow someone who has been completely shady since the beginning of the game and want to lynch me, then go ahead. Town doesn't deserve a win if you keep sheeping and using bad logic. This DH situation is not logical. Think it over hard if you really care about this game. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On December 03 2010 10:27 Kavdragon wrote: I'm not saying that he's town because he HAS to be town for us to win. Again, I agree with that reasoning, but it's not the reason I think he is town. I think you misinterpreted my post. That is the exact reasoning I'm trying to counter. DH does NOT have to be town for us to win. Even if he's mafia, we can still win if we lynch him And we'd have to because he would be elder. The critical question here is whether or not DH is mafia. If he is mafia, we MUST lynch him. What I'm trying to counter is the flawed idea that he has to be town for us to win. Why is DH mafia? He had a scummy beginning. His "fishing" is not pro-town at all. He has been using other peoples (joking) reactions to argue weak cases. Things like a "special townie" claim doesn't mean anything when you yourself are lying in PMs. DH has also been trying to form a town circle from day 1. While he claims he initially didn't ask people to claim to him, halfway into the day he is already asking for roleclaims "from those who trust him" and uses the reasoning that he already has a bunch of blues in order to justify getting the rest of the roleclaims. He keeps wanting roleclaims even though he isn't confirmed in any way. DH has been driving town in circles and controlled the Day 2 lynch behind our backs. He has been claiming all sorts of information such as "If medic claims to me 2 mafia die" without any justification. He hasn't been reasonable when we ask for information to make a decision even though he demands that we give our inputs. Most importantly, like I've already stated, DH wants to make us think he is important. The facts are that even if DH is mafia, we can still win. But DH is wanting us to think that we're doomed anyway if he is mafia, so we might as well not kill him. This is a myth. DH coming up with magic analysis on day 3 doesn't sway me. Especially after the Night 2 kills. Which btw he's just tried to shrug off as normal. But I highly doubt that the mafia assumed that both medics would be unprotected. DH is in panic mode now. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
jimbosilvers has post like scum and now he defends like scum we lynch him like scum Nice mantra there. Care to explain any of that? You've kept saying the same lines over and over again and yet you haven't responded to my defense except saying "its scummy". Where is the substance? I was not fishing in the beginning and I never asked for role PM's repeating this does not make it true I agree. Repeating that you were not fishing in PMs does not make it true. Repeating that you were not fishing in PMs does not make it true. I think we can all agree with that. For example: the Kenpachi PMs. You were so fishing early game. You may not have explicitly asked for role PMs, but you did implicitly ask for roleclaims halfway into day 1. On November 28 2010 12:01 DoctorHelvetica wrote: again, not asking for roleclaims. it would make my job easier but dont do anything you dont feel safe doing. What you state is: "I'm not asking for roleclaims". But in the sentence immediately following, you strongly imply "roleclaim to me!" if you trust me. Anyone should be able to see that this is an implicit request for roleclaims. Conveniently, you don't explicitly state it so that you can deny it later. On December 03 2010 13:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If your concern is that I was fishing early or asked everyone to RC to me in the beginning of the game that's a lie and it never happened. Before I even suggested a mass roleclaim to the town I already knew about 12-13 roles. The best thing for the town is to claim so I can narrow down mafia suspects by unlikely role numbers (3 medics, 3 mh, 2 vet, 2-3 vig, 3 dt, etc.) All of the specific counterclaims I asked for were for this reason. That I already had people in that role and wanted to see if any of them were lying as mafia can't risk counterclaiming knowing that I am probably in contact with the real ones. IE: mafia would know what I'm doing and never counterclaim to make me lynch a town aligned medic because the 1:1 trade that occurs in that scenario benefits town and not mafia, but a real town aligned player would counterclaim thus it's designed to catch someone that had already lied to me. as this never happened I hereby trust all of the blueclaimers except for youngminii because I never had any reason to trust it in the first place. Notice how you don't respond to the good man's concern and bypass my defense post yet again. He quotes your statement where you say you're going to destroy my arguments line by line and asks you to do so for all the people who don't see what is so "obvious" to you...but you haven't done so. In fact, all you've done since my defense post yesterday is say that its scummy. Care to dismantle my oh so scummy defense? Or do you realize you have nothing on me? You don't truly even mean to be a town leader. Otherwise you'd respond to people's concerns instead of spouting all of your dogmatic and empty statements. You're not convincing at all. You have nothing on me. I'm tired of arguing with your obstinate nonsense. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On December 03 2010 15:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote: did u not read the part where i went through your post line by line apparently you do not consider this responding to your defense but I will respond to literally every single one of your posts. I read the part where you went through my posts line by line. Your analysis is flawed everywhere and i defended myself. The post is here. Strangely, you decide to ignore that post yet post your own defense. And no, I do not consider this post responding to my defense. I consider it as YOU DEFENDING against my attacks. Your mantra is an attempt to lynch me without justification. If you were truly town you'd be trying to win support and convince the town, not run around yelling the same empty statements over and over again. You're not ignoring everything I say, you're just ignoring the things that don't fit your argument. Town should reflect and analyze. Not rush on forward following someone who can't respond to a defense. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
On December 03 2010 15:19 DoctorHelvetica wrote: nope.avi.exe.rtf.tiff.jpg This is not a response, it is a hand waving motion which states "I don't need to actually respond to your content. Presumably, because you can't. You're looking really strange now responding line by line to all my posts except this one. don't tell me and the town what my words mean, I'll do that thanks. Oh wow this is the boldest statement yet. It says: "If I'm mafia, please allow me to twist my words so they appear to be protown. Lol. Town, please do not ignore DH's statements. They're so absurd they make me laugh. | ||
JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
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JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
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