SC2 Ladder Analysis: Division Tiers

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Excalibur_Z United States. November 18 2010 05:22. Posts 10283

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Previous SC2 Ladder Analysis threads:
SC2 Ladder Analysis Part 1, an overview of the system: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=118212
SC2 Ladder Analysis Part 2, greater depth about matchmaking and promotion: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=142211
SC2 Ladder Misconceptions FAQ: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=150367

This week's Top 200 also included the win-loss records of each player at the time of the snapshot, which means we can use their match histories on Battle.net to work backwards and determine their points. Here are the results. The bolded lines are verified entries, meaning I was able to confirm that their current point values properly matched up to their match history. The unbolded lines are entries that could not be verified because they've either played too many non-1v1s or more than 25 1v1 games such that I couldn't go far enough back in their history.

What We Know:
We know that divisions are not equal, confirmed at Blizzcon.
We know that the Top 200 is generated by points without factoring in "the skill of your division."
We know that the Top 200 is not based on MMR or any other factor except points (including bonus used), confirmed at Blizzcon.
We know that the only difference between SC2Ranks' point rankings and the weekly Top 200 snapshot is interspersed divisions.

Season 2 data:
We are still determining Season 2 division tiers. We know that division tiers still exist because on the first day of Season 2, multiple divisions within a league are being generated and populated at the same time.

Division names in Season 2 have all been re-randomized, so "Medivac Alamo" when it reappears in Season 2 may not necessarily be an S-Rank Diamond division.

Season 1 data:
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Jan 24 (snapshot taken Jan 24, 9:30 AM PST):
This week's Top 200 mirrored SC2Ranks perfectly. No division tiers exist for Master league. Some Diamond players were interspersed with the Master players in the Top 200, establishing a Master league offset of -150 (e.g., InflowMini was tied with a Master league player and had exactly 465 more points, +315 from his division and +150 from Diamond as compared to Master).

Week of Jan 17 (snapshot taken Jan 20, 1:22 PM PST):
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Jan 3 (snapshot taken Jan 3, 10:45 AM PST):
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Dec 20 (snapshot taken Dec 21, between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM PST):
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Dec 13 (snapshot taken 1:00 PM PST):
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Dec 6 (snapshot taken 6:00 AM PST):
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Nov 29:
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Nov 22:
+ Show Spoiler +

Week of Nov 15:
+ Show Spoiler +

Keeping in mind that the Top 200 is by points before division modifiers are applied (because divisions are not equal), this tells us a few things:

* Kelerchian X-Ray and Medic Mu are equal in rank.
- Medivac Alamo and Akilae Omicron are probably equal in rank to Kelerchian X-Ray and Medic Mu
* Ehlna Bravo is a rank below Kelerchian X-Ray
* Urun Charlie is a rank below Ehlna Bravo
* and so forth according to various data points, including the following:

+ Show Spoiler +

Based on these findings we can create a kind of division hierarchy:

Master (modifier: -150)

S-Rank: (modifier: 0 *note that this only means that no divisions with a lower modifier were found, so we'll use 0 until a higher-level division emerges)
Medic Mu
Medivac Alamo
Kelerchian X-Ray
Akilae Omicron
Hartley Quest
Talematros Eta
Horner Chi
Immortal Yankee
Turaxis Yankee
Observer Mars
Pylon Kappa
Medic Pepper
Overmind Victor
Nagglfar Zed
Selendis Quest
Uraj Dixie
Medivac Juliet
Uraj Omega
Zekrath Sigma
Phash Kappa
Tassadar Charlie
Victory Bravo
Moratun Sierra
Raven Zed
Lenassa Dixie
Zergling Quest
Shuttle Nu
Dominion Beta
Tychus Theta
Artika Pepper
Kelerchian Upsilon
Tal'darim Theta

A-Rank: (modifier: +63)
Argo Echo
Executor Phi
Rimes Tau
Torrasque Eta
Kaloth Psi
Immortal Phi
Augustgrad Sigma
Drone Whiskey
Nagglfar Delta
Halcyon Gravity
Medivac Charlie
Forge Sigma
Mohandar Xi

B-Rank: (modifier: +126)
Feld Lima
Infestor Pepper
Corsair Uncle
Void Ray Tango
Spectre Zed
Typhon Whiskey
Dropship November

C-Rank: (modifier: +189)
Ehlna Bravo
Halcyon November
Hartley Nu
Phash Bravo
Shakuras Uncle
Ursa Lambda
Drone Echo
Agria Echo
Void Ray Pi
Nexus Hawk

D-Rank: (modifier: +252)
Boros Uncle
Urun Charlie
Feld Delta
Shuttle Foxtrot
Augustgrad Psi
Arcturus Mars
Void Ray Tau
Praetor Indigo
Shakuras Iota
Queen Uncle
Boros Iota
Raven Victor

E-Rank: (modifier: +315)
Scout Kilo
Dragoon Sierra
Valerian Uncle
Mohandar Romeo
Medic Whiskey
Raven Chi
Taarim Gamma
Muadun Pepper
Roach Iota
Adun Pi
Goliath Beta
Augustgrad X-Ray
Samiku Pi
Uraj Yankee
Sentry Pi
Firebat Bravo
Azimar Charlie
Azimar Romeo
Zerus Romeo
Reaver Gamma

Not Sure of Rank:
Lenassa Phi (maybe A?)

EU Known Division Tiers:
+ Show Spoiler +

SEA Known Division Tiers:
+ Show Spoiler +

LA Known Division Tiers:
+ Show Spoiler +

KR Known Division Tiers:
+ Show Spoiler +

Conclusions:
Offsets:

Master: -150
Diamond S-Rank: 0
Diamond A-Rank: +63
Diamond B-Rank: +126
Diamond C-Rank: +189
Diamond D-Rank: +252
Diamond E-Rank: +315
Diamond F-Rank: +378

Because the point modifiers that can be observed from this list are all multiples of 63, (+63, 126, 189, 252, 315) we can conclude that each tier below S-Rank will have a modifier that is a multiple of +63.

Live Masters Ranking: (deprecated)
+ Show Spoiler +

FAQ
Q: Why is it this way?
A: The answer is twofold. Blizzard's intent is for players to focus on their assigned division. To that end, divisions cover a relatively narrow range of skill. The objective is that players who are both active and skilled will reach the top of their division.

The tier to which you are assigned contains a rating offset in order to normalize ratings. If tiers didn't exist, it would be immediately evident that certain divisions are worse than others. While a top player's division may have many players around 2000 rating, a weaker player's division may have their average closer to 1500. However, after normalization, it may turn out that the weaker player's division has an average closer to 1815, which is much more competitive. This creates incentive for the lower-tier players to continue playing because the gap appears to be more manageable. Wargizmo has a solid analysis of the system in place:

On November 18 2010 18:12 Wargizmo wrote:
I was thinking about this today, and I think I understand why Blizzard do it the way they do.

Firstly it's obvious that they want divisions to have all players of roughly equal skill right? That's why some divisions have stronger players and some weaker, but why would that be? surely for accuracy's sake it would be better to have a sample of good players, mediocre players and weaker players in each division so that I could see my division rank and have an accurate idea of how good I am... maybe, but this is not Blizzard's goal and never has been.

Look at the players in your division, check out the players near the top and then the ones at the middle and then the ones at the bottom, notice a pattern? it's almost universal in every division that there is a direct relationship between games played and division rank.

If everyone in the division is of the same skill level, then the only way people are going to have more points than others is by playing more games. Your almost NEVER see a guy with 100 games ranked higher than someone with 200 games in the same division. Why? because if the guy with 100 games was significantly better he would be put in a higher tier of division to begin with.

Why would they do this? It's really ingenious. Basically anyone in the entire world can be #1 (or at least top 10) in their division if they just play enough games (with the possible exception of the very highest tier), the system has made sure that people who may not be that good are put in a division with others who aren't that good and can still feel that they are actually good.

The points modification is just the icing on the cake, people would kind of feel something was up if they were top of their division on only 1500 points... it would be really obvious about the weaker divisions, but if that gets inflated to 1815 points then it doesn't seem so bad, and certainly the guy who played 1000 games to get to the top of his E-class division can look at his point total and consider himself among the best in the world.

End result - people have a reason to keep playing, people are constantly rising in their division as long as they play enough games, and points totals remain roughly consistent with people who play more games = have more points.

Q: If I'm in a crappy division that turns out to have a large modifier, am I never going to appear in the Top 200?
A: You can still appear in the Top 200, your points just have to be that much higher than other players. For example, if you have 2000 points but your modifier is +315, then your adjusted score is actually 1685. That means in order to rank evenly with 2000-point players in a division with a modifier of 0, you would have to have 2315 points.

Q: Will I ever have an opportunity to change divisions?
A: No, unless you get promoted or demoted into a different league.

Q: Why can't we change divisions?
A: Presumably, you are placed in a division when you are promoted into a new league according to your skill level. For example, we see that the Top 200 is consistently dominated by top-tier divisions. If it were possible to move laterally in a league from one division to another, it's likely that players would hop around from division to division extremely frequently, which would defeat the purpose of the design, which is to make players focus on their division.

Q: Oh dear! My division isn't listed, what does that mean?!
A: Only divisions that have representatives in the Top 200 can be tracked, and right now that's only about 50 divisions out of the 500+ that exist on the NA server, so there's a good chance your division isn't among them. If your division isn't listed, then it just means there isn't enough information to determine its tier.

Q: How did you arrive at these numbers? What methods did you use?
A: You'll notice that the list of players is numbered in Blizz's Top 200. Some players are tied for the same rank. Because it's been explained that the Top 200 is based on points but without division modifiers applied, that means that all players who are tied for the same rank in the Top 200 all had the same unmodified point totals. The Top 200 doesn't list points, only player records, so you have to work backwards along their match history to determine what their point total was at the time of the snapshot.

For example, if Player A is #100 and his Top 200 record was 50-50, but now it's 53-52, you would look at his current rating, go back in his match history, and start adding back points for losses and subtracting points for wins for his last 5 games. Let's say the result is a rating of 1000 and he's in Division A. If Player B is also tied for #100 and you determine his rating is 800 in Division B, then you know that 800 in Division B is equal to 1000 in Division A. Once enough of these data points surface (and I was jotting them down in that "data points" spoiler section as I found them), patterns begin to emerge.

At first, I found the +126 modifier. Then, I found the +252. Then I found the +315. Then the +63. Then I inferred the +189 (between +170 and 200, and 189 fit the +63 per tier pattern).

Q: How do these tiers impact matchmaking and points received per game?
A: They don't. Matchmaking is determined by your MMR versus your opponent's MMR, and the point values per game is determined by your opponent's MMR versus your adjusted (division modifiers excluded) rating.

Q: Is it true that newer divisions will have larger modifiers than older ones?
A: NO! This is not the case. New divisions of all tiers are created all the time.

Q: Does this information help me find out my hidden matchmaking rating (MMR)?
A: No. MMR is hidden and it will remain hidden. You cannot know what your MMR is, you can only get very broad estimates based on the quality of opponents you face.

Unanswered Questions:
- How does the system determine which division tier a player should be placed? Obviously by MMR, but to what extent?

- How many tiers of divisions exist within each league? Blizzard had mentioned that additional divisions would be added to Bronze to solve the Bronze Zero phenomenon, but have divisions (or, extra layers of granularity) been added to other leagues previously?

- The tiers defined in my post could only be determined due to the Top 200 listing, but how would an average player manage to determine his division's tier without a global reference point like the Top 200? Furthermore, if the Top 200 goes away once the Grandmaster league is added, will we be able to determine tiers in any capacity?

Last edit: 2011-03-29 12:00:15

megagoten Canada. November 18 2010 05:34. Posts 318

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i still don't get why divisions matter

DooMDash United States. November 18 2010 05:36. Posts 840

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I thought divisions were just made by the date you got into it, and nothing more. I don't think there is any different ways to rank divisions like you are.

S1 3500+ Master T. S2 1600+ Master T.

Excalibur_Z United States. November 18 2010 05:41. Posts 10283

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On November 18 2010 05:36 DooMDash wrote:
I thought divisions were just made by the date you got into it, and nothing more. I don't think there is any different ways to rank divisions like you are.

Obviously new divisions are created all the time, but it's the strength of those divisions that is unclear. For example, Hartley Quest is a relatively new division but it has top-level players. Scout Kilo is an old division but it has relatively weaker players with the exception of David Kim.

DooMDash United States. November 18 2010 05:42. Posts 840

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IDK man I'm in one of S-ranked divisions and it must be coincidence.

S1 3500+ Master T. S2 1600+ Master T.

Cel.erity United States. November 18 2010 05:42. Posts 3584

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I thought you were just placed into a division with other people who got promoted at the same time as you. There's nothing special about being #1 or #100 in your division.

Edit: Ok, if you think there's more to it, carry on.

Last edit: 2010-11-18 05:44:21

We found Dove in a soapless place.

zzaaxxsscd United States. November 18 2010 05:42. Posts 626

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nice work sir - finally we can assign some meaning to the divisions

why don't you use negative modifiers?
(like Boyardee's true "point rating" is his displayed points - 252)

to the doubters, read up on Excalibur_Z's other threads and come back when your eyes are open

Last edit: 2010-11-18 05:46:31

heishe Germany. November 18 2010 05:46. Posts 2127

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are there different divisions on different servers? I've quickly gone through my friend list and none of the names of their leagues appear in your list, mine doesn't either (mar sara sigma).

If you value your soul, never look into the eye of a horse. Your soul will forever be lost in the void of the horse.

DooMDash United States. November 18 2010 05:47. Posts 840

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On November 18 2010 05:42 zzaaxxsscd wrote:
nice work sir - finally we can assign some meaning to the divisions

why don't you use negative modifiers?
(like Boyardee's true "point rating" is his displayed points - 252)

to the doubters, read up on Excalibur_Z's other threads and come back when your eyes are open

Ah I didn't realize he was the same guy who made all those nice MMR threads.

I guess it's just kind of hard to imagine any meaning beyond date joined when thinking of divisions.

S1 3500+ Master T. S2 1600+ Master T.

Excalibur_Z United States. November 18 2010 05:47. Posts 10283

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On November 18 2010 05:46 heishe wrote:
are there different divisions on different servers? I've quickly gone through my friend list and none of the names of their leagues appear in your list, mine doesn't either (mar sara sigma).

This is only for NA, sorry heishe =( Yeah division names are different per region.

heishe Germany. November 18 2010 05:49. Posts 2127

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On November 18 2010 05:47 Excalibur_Z wrote:

Show nested quote +

This is only for NA, sorry heishe =( Yeah division names are different per region.

no worries, I was just worried for a second that I'm in some kind of "fart against the wind" (meaning crappy) division :D

another excellent thread by Excalibur_Z

Last edit: 2010-11-18 05:50:01

If you value your soul, never look into the eye of a horse. Your soul will forever be lost in the void of the horse.

Lightspeed November 18 2010 05:58. Posts 130

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I'm not sure I understand correctly. If you were promoted to Scout Kilo you would end up with 315 more ladderpoints than if you were promoted to Medic Mu? Where's the sense in this, what would be the reasoning?

We have one cup here, but really only two girls

link0 United States. November 18 2010 06:05. Posts 1071

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On November 18 2010 05:58 Lightspeed wrote:
I'm not sure I understand correctly. If you were promoted to Scout Kilo you would end up with 315 more ladderpoints than if you were promoted to Medic Mu? Where's the sense in this, what would be the reasoning?

I believe this is correct.

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DooMDash United States. November 18 2010 06:07. Posts 840

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On November 18 2010 06:05 link0 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I believe this is correct.

Where would you get/receive those 315 more points?

Last edit: 2010-11-18 06:08:08

S1 3500+ Master T. S2 1600+ Master T.

Excalibur_Z United States. November 18 2010 06:10. Posts 10283

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Great question. Obfuscation, maybe? Blizzard's intent behind separate divisions is apparently to ensure that your focus remains on your own division. When we asked about this at Blizzcon, and in particular why SC2Ranks couldn't be considered an accurate resource, they said that it wasn't their goal to invalidate sites like SC2Ranks, the system they put into place merely had that side effect.

ROOTMinigun November 18 2010 06:21. Posts 577

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does this mean I suck

“Quiet people have the loudest minds.” ― Stephen Hawking

silencesc United States. November 18 2010 06:24. Posts 464

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kinda off topic, but does anyone else with Skype think this list is really funny? The numbers show up as callable..

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Excalibur_Z United States. November 18 2010 06:26. Posts 10283

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On November 18 2010 06:24 silencesc wrote:
kinda off topic, but does anyone else with Skype think this list is really funny? The numbers show up as callable..

I had to disable the Skype plug-in because of this post. It's too bad there's no easy way to format things =(

MockHamill Sweden. November 18 2010 06:33. Posts 569

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So are the Division Ranks based on the average MMR of its members, or something else? If it is MMR then a division could change its rank over time.

Excalibur_Z United States. November 18 2010 06:42. Posts 10283

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On November 18 2010 06:33 MockHamill wrote:
So are the Division Ranks based on the average MMR of its members, or something else? If it is MMR then a division could change its rank over time.

I think it only matters for initial placement. For example, maybe one division has an MMR range of 1000-1100, another is 1100-1200, and so forth. If you get placed in that 1000-1100 one, that would just mean your MMR was between 1000 and 1100 when you got placed. The MMR ranges for the division wouldn't change even if the average MMR of the members changed. That would be my estimation.