Pick Your Power Mafia 3!

I just updated the OP with the Sign Up list. It's not final - players with more games under their belt have priority over newer players in this setup. Active players will also be prioritized over other players. You can still sign up and if you don't get in you'll be put on the Waiting List.

Also the OP will be updated with available roles soon and will be finalized by tomorrow afternoon. I'm just tweaking some stuff to see what new roles I'm rolling with.

Last edit: 2011-01-02 04:32:10

No sir I fully get it, however unless I can unlaunch my nuke there is not much we can do about it. I also wasn't posting as much because I didn't fully read the rules yet LOL! - RebirthofLegend in WaW Mafia

Qatol United States. January 02 2011 06:31. Posts 3010

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On January 02 2011 01:51 LSB wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Number selection portion
I don't believe this area is enforceable. My first post in this game will probably be announcing I chose the numbers [5][1]

The thing that is able to be controlled is revealing the plan after the numbers were selected. This way, mafia maneuvers won't really matter.
Now, this is placing a significant amount of trust on one person. However, the Egyptian Pyramid Builder method works well here. All we do is kill me day one and see if I'm red or blue.

Role Selection Portion
Rastaban's plan was clearly superior in this field. Yes he probably placed importance on the wrong areas, but this can be fixed

When we look at PYP 2 we see that there actually wasn't that much clash
+ Show Spoiler +
We take out Hesmyrr, who intentionally clashed with someone else, and then we see that 3 people clashed.
This is a 3/18 rate. 17%

In PYP1, there was less roles, so yes there should be less clash. But the amount of people who actually choose roles was much less.
+ Show Spoiler +
We take out everyone who didn't chose a role, and see that there are 4 clashes
4/13 is a 31% rate.

The main issue with your plan Qatol is that it left a lot of townies to choose their roles up for themselves. And when this happened, it was left up to the dice. A lot of townies quickly tried to grab important roles, bumping into each other.

Radfield's plan was nice because it had significantly more roles. 9 roles Vrs. 16.
In reality. There were enough blues that the town didn't really need to scumhunt.

I assume you mean your vanilla role, otherwise you are wasting a significant amount of time.

I'm just warning you that I believe announcing your numbers before the drafting order is revealed is suboptimal because it reduces the odds of a conflict in numbers. Also most good plans don't need to get the formulator killed - the whole point of them is they make logical sense to everyone. Killing yourself to earn trust is a weakness to almost any plan because people won't follow it unless it makes sense to them regardless of whether or not they trust your intentions.

As for clashing, you mischaracterize the facts somewhat. First of all, the mafia disrupted the role selection/assignment more in PYP1 than they did in PYP2 (partially because role assignment hadn't been accepted as the proper course of action) - 2 of those clashes were because mafia selected the role 1 spot higher than the town person assigned to select said role. Out of the 4 clashes you identify, 3 of the players who ended up with vanilla roles from clashing were assigned a selection or small group of selections, so it wasn't really because the townies were left to select roles on their own. Second of all, why did you discount Hesmyrr but not OpZ when he was also likely to clash with someone with their pick based on his assignment (he was told to either take CompVig, Inventor, or JOAT even though 2 of those had already been assigned)?

I agree that the organization of the PYP2 method was better, but I still think that PYP1 had it beat in some areas (number selection in particular).

On January 02 2011 04:12 Fishball wrote:

Show nested quote +

On January 01 2011 12:22 Qatol wrote:

On December 30 2010 23:46 Fishball wrote:

On December 30 2010 16:32 Qatol wrote:
Wasn't Radfield's plan the one where the town assigned roles to certain spots and then the players picked an order so they wouldn't overlap? If so, why would you ever try to reproduce that? It lets the mafia control what their members pick, which is the worst thing that could happen to the town. The town wants overlaps so the mafia are either forced into early positions/ roles they cannot use effectively without becoming suspicious or positions later in the draft where the mafia cannot be sure their desired roles will be available. If I remember correctly, I thought Radfield was mafia for most of PYP2 because his plan was so anti-town.

Edit: I just realized that this came out really harsh, especially considering the town won PYP2. What I really meant was just as long as the town prevents the mafia from controlling the draft, they are in good shape. I don't think Radfield's method for doing so was as effective as it could have been, but it was certainly sufficient and he should be commended for coming forward and making sure the town tried to do something to take control of the drafting phase.

Huh?
What are you smoking?

Did I stutter or something?

On December 31 2010 00:29 LSB wrote:

Firstly, the mafia wasn't really able to control the draft, Radfield was the one.

When the plan was put in action, I'm pretty sure that people didn't RNG and just chose the best role for them.
So basically his plan was telling everyone what number to pick.

Now, there was no consideration for where mafia could be. So possibly this would be a change for the plan this game

The main weakness I see with his plan was
1) There were some green players due to role overlap. Maximal amount of blues would have been extreamly good for the town.
2) It should have been pretty obvious where the DT was. In fact mafia went after DT the first round. Given, they knew where the DT was because they attempted to take the DT spot but failed. And also the hit failed because the DT was the SK

Now, the good stuff with the plan
1) It got rid of the pretty dangerous roles quick. (This could be accomplished by assigning the copy-cat role earlier or later). One trouble in PYP1 was that the comp vig got lost.
2) Medics would have their jobs cut out for them. They know around where the mafia would hit. So possibly obvious blue roles isn't a bad thing.
3) It got an obscene amount of roles out, each incredibly useful.

Of course, I immediately see some irreparable weakness with both plans. Chiefly, the traitor messed things up real quick for a while, but then all was good. I'll try working on it, once I see the role list.

I think I said things in a slightly confusing manner. I'm not criticizing his plan for the role selection part of the draft phase, only for the number selection portion. If I'm not confused, the role assignment for the first few roles + the probabilities was already mostly figured out before the number selection phase was over. In addition, the way the town did the number selection was by publicly announcing their picks in an attempt to avoid conflicts. This allows the mafia to figure out what role they want to pick, and then make sure they are in the right position to get their desired roles. Just because they didn't do things that way doesn't mean the potential for abuse wasn't there.

Weaknesses:
1. I don't think this was too much of a problem. Overlaps will happen, and his decision to allow people to pick a role based on probabilities was a good way to try and make sure the important roles got selected and the number of blues was maximized.
2. With his kind of setup this is hard to avoid. I agree that this is a definite weakness to be improved upon.

Strengths:
1. This happened in PYP1 as well. And the comp-vig didn't get lost in PYP1. It was pretty much resolved by day 2 that Foolishness had that role. The major mistake we made with respect to that role was we didn't lynch him on day 2 to give the town more time.
2. Medics always have their jobs cut out for them. At least this way they had a short list of players who probably had the roles they wanted to protect. It makes the medic list much smaller. However, the medics are also easier to find which can be problematic.
3. I think both methods give a lot of blues. Remember that 1/3 of PYP1 didn't select a role at all, which was why there were so many greens.

The town was silly to even be looking for the traitor that early. If I recall correctly, they had the traitor down to something like 1 in 5 when the mafia : town ratio was 1 in 4. Let the mafia clear out the power roles before you look for the traitor like that.

Also, Radfield's list of role priorities was pretty bad. He had Veteran really really high and I think he had an important role ridiculously low.

I try not to remember much from this game, because this was the most frustrating game I've ever played. One man Mafia team with 1 KP against entire town? Yeah.

I thought Radfield's plan was alright. It limited our options, but we were somewhat ready for it (Somewhat due to our minimal coordination).

As for the other details you're trying to debate with LSB; Sure, the plan has it's weakness, but I have no comment here since I don't really want to stick my nose in. Just keep in mind it was almost a unanimous decision for the players to go with Radfield's plan. There were people that disagreed, but no one else were able to throw out a better plan. Definitely not from the Mafia at the very least.

I wouldn't go as far to call his plan anti-town at all (from your first post).

I saw it as a misdirection attempt which looked good on paper but resulted in the town picking the wrong roles and giving the mafia extremely favorable roles

Uff Da

Fishball Canada. January 02 2011 06:57. Posts 4702

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I don't exactly know what you mean by "extremely favorable roles" were given to the Mafia. Basically the top picks were all pretty much forced to role claim, and under surveillance due to the plan. Besides the lol-traitor, there really were no surprises, and it didn't matter if you were town or not for the respective roles.

靈魂交響曲

Qatol United States. January 02 2011 07:01. Posts 3010

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On January 02 2011 06:57 Fishball wrote:
I don't exactly know what you mean by "extremely favorable roles" were given to the Mafia. Basically the top picks were all pretty much forced to role claim, and under surveillance due to the plan. Besides the lol-traitor, there really were no surprises, and it didn't matter if you were town or not for the respective roles.

Roleblocker and JOAT slipped past the screening entirely. How is veteran a higher priority pick than JOAT?

Uff Da

Fishball Canada. January 02 2011 07:53. Posts 4702

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Like I said, I don't remember the exact details, nor do I really care. Was there a veteran in the top? I don't remember, at, all. That is not my point. All I'm saying is, the plan had his merits and applied constraints to the Mafia, and is by no means bad by general consensus, which is what you are trying to say.

If you want to pick on every single detail for debate, I'll leave LSB with you to do that.

靈魂交響曲

LSB United States. January 02 2011 08:11. Posts 3792

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On January 02 2011 06:31 Qatol wrote:
I'm just warning you that I believe announcing your numbers before the drafting order is revealed is suboptimal because it reduces the odds of a conflict in numbers. Also most good plans don't need to get the formulator killed - the whole point of them is they make logical sense to everyone. Killing yourself to earn trust is a weakness to almost any plan because people won't follow it unless it makes sense to them regardless of whether or not they trust your intentions.

Although conflict in numbers can be used to generate a list of who is probably mafia, it can be beat. All mafia has to do is assigning two people. [1][1] and [1][2], and your plan falls to shambles.

By me publically announcing that I will be taking [5][1] at the beginning of the game. We know if anyone intentionally tries to take a [5][X], something is up with that person.

Probably what's going to happen is we'll try to get most of the plan before the number selection occurs, so people are on board.

As for clashing, you mischaracterize the facts somewhat. First of all, the mafia disrupted the role selection/assignment more in PYP1 than they did in PYP2 (partially because role assignment hadn't been accepted as the proper course of action) - 2 of those clashes were because mafia selected the role 1 spot higher than the town person assigned to select said role. Out of the 4 clashes you identify, 3 of the players who ended up with vanilla roles from clashing were assigned a selection or small group of selections, so it wasn't really because the townies were left to select roles on their own. Second of all, why did you discount Hesmyrr but not OpZ when he was also likely to clash with someone with their pick based on his assignment (he was told to either take CompVig, Inventor, or JOAT even though 2 of those had already been assigned)?

I agree that the organization of the PYP2 method was better, but I still think that PYP1 had it beat in some areas (number selection in particular).

Indeed, the same happened with PYP2, the people who had clashes were assigned as part of a group of selections.

The thing was, the reason why it was far less was because it was generally organized. Immediately the plan guaranteed the first 3 roles be picked. And also the Bullet Bill / DT be picked.
But remember, the more roles the better. Although the mafia can get it's hands on a few good roles. What won the game last time was the mass of imbalanced town roles.

iirc, the purpose of not selecting the JOAT, was so that we'd know anyone with a gun was mafia. That way the bullet bill became a 100% scumdar

Now, I have in mind a plan, but as always, I don't want to screw myself over if I turn out to be mafia.

Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry

Qatol United States. January 02 2011 08:58. Posts 3010

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On January 02 2011 08:11 LSB wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't think you're understanding me with the numbers. Here's the thing: conflicts favor the town. This has nothing to do with the number thing from PYP1 (which even then I said would only work for that game). The difference is the scum selections are coordinated. They are aiming to get their members into certain parts of the draft. If players pick the same numbers as them, they have to change their plans and may have to make suboptimal role selections. This is in the town's favor.

Also, if someone else selects [5][X], it doesn't mean they are scum or even suspicious. It means they think that you should not be drafting early, probably because they do not trust you.

Uff Da

LSB United States. January 02 2011 09:09. Posts 3792

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Indeed, even with select people claiming their numbers, there was still plenty of conflict. It's nearly impossible for the mafia to attempt to pick their numbers perfectly. In addition, there will be areas where the mafia will not be able to manipulate.

For example, say 1,2,3,4,5 are publically claimed.
Sure, the mafia could pick six, however, they will always be behind the people who picked the first five numbers.

Fishball, how successful were you at getting the people into the right spots?

Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry

Ace United States. January 02 2011 09:39. Posts 13502

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It is in general a very bad idea for the town to claim numbers before picking. If the Mafia is actually trying to win they'll let the town have their way and just get the roles they want. The Mafia lost PYP2 due to inactivity, not because of Town roles.

Like Qatol said, clashing favors town. Look at how dangerous things got in PYP1. When players clash you know for a fact that there is a good chance they both can't be scum. The more clashing you have, the faster you can divide people into groups and start asking people to claim numbers. If you all call out your numbers early on the Mafia have nothing to fear. No one clashes, everyone "goes in order" and the Mafia pick as they please. Realize that Scum really don't need certain roles to win as much as the Town needs some of the big ones.

LSB United States. January 02 2011 09:47. Posts 3792

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Using blue font is unfair Ace. Throws tantrum

Although Inactivity played a part. The Mafia didn't lose PYP2 just because of inactivity, the chief reason was because over half the town was confirmed and we couldn't do anything about it, and no one anticipated how broken the bad santa role can be.

Yes I see you have a point about clashing. But remember, the mafia already knows that the town might use clashing as a scumtell. It would be incredibly easy for the mafia to pick 2 [1][X] slots and then simply redirect the town to clashing. The town would waste lots of time trying to fit things under the clashing theory, when all that would be accomplished is 'confirming' a mafia.

Just like how Mafia IV will probably not happen again, clashing is a theory that probably won't work

Last edit: 2011-01-02 09:48:14

Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry

Ace United States. January 02 2011 09:54. Posts 13502

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Yes I see you have a point about clashing. But remember, the mafia already knows that the town might use clashing as a scumtell.

Well see, that's the fun part ^_^. Bad Santa is going to be removed. I have a few other roles that I'll throw in. I'm just trying to decide which ones to put in at the moment.

HaploPaithan United States. January 02 2011 10:32. Posts 100

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Can't wait for this to start =]

Qatol United States. January 02 2011 11:14. Posts 3010

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On January 02 2011 09:47 LSB wrote:
Just like how Mafia IV will probably not happen again, clashing is a theory that probably won't work

Heh and clearly this is the real reason I don't play much any more. My plans all work once and then never again and I'd rather not be an average player! But at least games where my plans happened are legendary!

In all seriousness, clashing will work just fine. It still prevents the mafia from controlling the draft phase as much as they would like. The only thing that won't work again is the number theory because the mafia can always intentionally clash to beat it. And even though they probably won't, the possibility is still there.

Uff Da

LSB United States. January 02 2011 11:31. Posts 3792

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On January 02 2011 11:14 Qatol wrote:

Show nested quote +

It's all right. Teamwork is overrated. Gogo Kill everyone else in the game plan!!

Last edit: 2011-01-02 11:32:10

Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry

Fishball Canada. January 02 2011 11:33. Posts 4702

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On January 02 2011 09:47 LSB wrote:
Using blue font is unfair Ace. Throws tantrum

Although Inactivity played a part. The Mafia didn't lose PYP2 just because of inactivity, the chief reason was because over half the town was confirmed and we couldn't do anything about it, and no one anticipated how broken the bad santa role can be.

Yes I see you have a point about clashing. But remember, the mafia already knows that the town might use clashing as a scumtell. It would be incredibly easy for the mafia to pick 2 [1][X] slots and then simply redirect the town to clashing. The town would waste lots of time trying to fit things under the clashing theory, when all that would be accomplished is 'confirming' a mafia.

Just like how Mafia IV will probably not happen again, clashing is a theory that probably won't work

If I were to say it with numbers, the loss is due to 50% inactivity, 25% Mafia 1 KP, 15% Bad Santa List, 10% when rastaban pulled a wrong move at the end, and our last thin hope of victory vanished. The Bad Santa was an extremely unlucky break for the Mafia, but it was rastaban's kill that sealed the deal, though I don't really blame him, and we shouldn't have been in that position in the first place.

Yes, inactivity hurt us(me) a shit load. There were times I thought it just wasn't worth playing anymore, as I wasn't enjoying the game at all. Just ask Ace and the PM's I had with him.

I never made a post about it, but you have no idea how pissed off I was when DarthThienAn decided to host a game after PYP2, when he rather play SC2 and be inactive during PYP2. I have no respect for him whatsoever.

Last edit: 2011-01-02 14:26:07

靈魂交響曲

Ace United States. January 03 2011 05:07. Posts 13502

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Please note that PYP 3 is going to be somewhat radically different from the past 2 games in terms of types of roles you will see. OP is going to be updated very soon.

Ace United States. January 03 2011 07:15. Posts 13502

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The OP has been updated with the Player and Role list. This may change though. For now the game is set to start on Tuesday, January 4th at 9PM Eastern Time/11:00 KST. In the mean time:

Past game mods, if you see anyone currently on the list that is known for being inactive, barely avoiding mod-kill thresholds, or ruining games let me know via PM. Thank you.

Any one else can still sign-up. Experienced players have preference over new players for this setup.

LSB United States. January 03 2011 08:59. Posts 3792

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After a protect. Will the CPR doc be notified if

A) Successfully protects a hit
B) Kills someone
C) Is supppse to kill someone but that person is protected/bulletproof?

Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry

Kenpachi United States. January 03 2011 09:32. Posts 9005

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wow i hope this game is exciting cause unorthodoxed games are so awesome

I'm definitely in my zone.

kitaman27 United States. January 03 2011 09:40. Posts 4532

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Yikes, CPR Doctor in mafia hands sounds nasty.

Well, I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.