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TL Mafia XXXVII
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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bumatlarge
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/out /in as replacement if need be. | ||
bumatlarge
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bumatlarge
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Give me a second to read through this disease again before I can actually say annul was bussed or not. (for once you might be right coagulation). Annul is not a bad player, I think there was some deliberate scumtells going on here. The chances of getting mafia who do not want to get caught are very slim. Instead of shouting warnings you should be clarifying exactly what is entailed by a certain outcome, which is annul being bussed. But I need to sleep because relaxing is hard. So give me a good gist on how the lynch went down please? The night seems pretty straightforward, they had 4 members and used the round-up thing to get to 3kp. that means they didn't spend it doing other stuff, which is important for when you get information during a night where the KP doesn't quite add up. | ||
bumatlarge
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Anyway, I think annul is probably the better catches for town to get early. I think town would be better served in pressuring the more reserved since that roster seems fairly slim in this game. I like icemac as a lynch target, and others like him that don't quite cut the bill. They are much easier to tell apart then good townie players that keep their mouths in check but speak when it is right, such as ohn. LSB is silly. | ||
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Since Barundar didn't note them as much, LSB's lists are mostly opinionated and way too general to be of any serious help to town. His priority list has broad spectrums of what people are classified as, but he doesn't go into detail about the individuals, he just provides his reads on every single person. It's not bad to do, but it really just puts in your mind that "Oh LSB, he posted a list and stuff, he's useful" Along with barundar's reasons, I think LSB is red as well. I'll be voting him for now. | ||
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I should know -_- | ||
bumatlarge
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As for the RBs, I'm not sold on them, as they are very easy to fake claim with the cumulative format. Especially since I think LSB has appeared red to myself and others. Not sure about jackal, but this format from my perspective gives mafia a lot of more exciting opportunities to be pro active. LSB is similar to me in that regard. I think he would take a chance bussing a teammate for the fun of the game which I would respect. But I don't have any other facts to go on to disprove these role blocks, other then that they can happen. I'm not going to tunnel LSB, when this could be legitimate and my guess off. I'd feel stupid if a vig claimed but I'm saying this is what I would do as scum. | ||
bumatlarge
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And cube, foolishness has medics too so vig won't work either | ||
bumatlarge
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On March 02 2011 01:53 deconduo wrote: Bum has so few posts in the game I'm surprised no one has picked up on it. If Foolishness is focusing on different playstyles, this should be pretty obvious yet he hasn't mentioned it at all. Considering all the games in the last few months where I survived past night 2 I've been scum, isn't this a good thing? ;D I like this post a lot though, I'll be using the voting pattern list you made. | ||
bumatlarge
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+ Show Spoiler + On February 27 2011 18:15 Barundar wrote: Case against LSB Part 1: Was annul a bus? From http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Bus bus on mafiascum: The indicators in my words: 1) The bussee is already under town suspecion 2) The lynch faces little resistance 3) The busser uses the lynch for town credit My arguments as to why annul was a bus: 1) First of all annul was already under what I believe to be town suspicion before LSB entered the scene. Deconduo had cast his vote on annul at least to pressure him, OriginalName had asked if we should start voting him, GMarshal had been analysing his post and found no contribution, Mr.Wiggles found his playstyle in mafia xxxvi to be indicative of a better player, that wasn’t showing in this game, and why argued that annul was suspicious. All of these people argued for annul being suspicious, but they weren’t sure. A number of them tried to scumhunt annul, asking him to explain why he was acting up, trying to gather more evidence. That’s standard pro town play. LSB wasn't as concerned with if annul was actually just a stupid townie, but more with getting him lynched. He didn't need convincing. I'll go more into detail with that in part 2. 2) A large amount of the votes on annul was for other reasons than him being red: Annul might have acted suspicious, but he was by no means guaranteed to get lynched that day. All he had to do to avoid getting lynched was to start giving better reasoning, and take an interest in the other lynch targets. Yet he chooses not to: It got to the point where he had to get asked to at least try in the thread: After this post annul does a few longer posts. Let me repeat this: He gets asked in the thread to at least try. It’s not his team mates being annoyed with him on irc, forcing him to stop screwing around, it’s in the goddamn thread. Despite relatively weak reasoning for voting annul, there was a lack of counter-bandwagons. Annul himself votes for gryffindor, so you would assume that if mafia had tried to save him, a bunch of votes would jump on Gryffindor. But this doesn’t happen, and annul didn’t try and bring a convincing case against Gryffindor himself. His reason was more just a justification of the vote, than an atttempt to convince others. Again, when asked in the thread: He still refuses to fight for himself. We know from mafia xxxv where he got LSB lynched, that annul can be convincing and lead a lynch. In this game he doesn’t even try, despite having access to a team of scumbuddies who can help his arguments or give his bandwagon weight. Here he doesn’t even try until asked to in the thread. He doesn’t role claim despite being asked to. He really only puts up a vote on a possible counter-bandwagon an hour before lynch time, and he doesn’t try to push the case. Yet he flips mafia. Mafia day 1 lynches are extremely rare, and games are balanced around town missing day 1 lynch. I haven’t seen it in any of my other games on TL. Yet we got one, where a majority of the votes was hardly because they thought he was red. The push for him was weak, and could have been easily diverted to a player like Gryffindor or icemac. If those 2 aren’t red, then annul was a bus. 3) As pointed out under 1), there was already a lot of suspicion against annul by the time LSB entered the scene. Yet LSB takes the full credit for the lynch: No credit to the players I mentioned under 1). Deconduo was the first to cast his vote, yet he doesn’t try to use it to prove his alignment to town. LSB on the other hand has no issue with drawing medic protection to himself alone. He initially offers it to Foolishness, who didn’t even have a vote on annul by the time he died, but quickly changes his mind. All LSB cares about is himself. This is pure anti town behavior. Medic protection is just as much the threat of a player being protected, as it is the actual protection. Beceause medics actually rarely saves a hit, it's the mentioning of the possibility that is the real strength, it makes scum target others. The day 1 pattern fits exactly step 1, 2 and 3 above. There is suspicion against a mafia player A when mafia player B enters the scene. Mafia player B pushes the lynch, and when mafia player A flips, player B tries to take full credit for the kill, not recognising other players initiated the lynch and uses the town cred to his advantage. Question is, is this too obvious? Would LSB really follow the most obvious signs of a bussing mafia player? First of all you have to remember LSB and annul have a history. When LSB enters the scene, annul has already gotten suspicion on him. It would be suspicious by itself, if LSB didn’t try to push annul. So say LSB and annul are on a team together, what do they do? They know they can’t suddenly appear to be friends. Since annul is already suspicious, why not make the best of it? Secondly LSB does not shy away from playing obvious when anti town: HPmafia: LSB runs for mayor day 1, despite being asked by his team not to. As a result, Dr.H calls for a mafia bus on him (LSB was snape in this game, so we suspected he might betray us). Day 1 proceeds to have the whole scumteam accuse LSB, yet he manages to get RoL to trust him, and gets the lynch diverted. He also fishes out RoL’s veteran role, so on night 1 mafia stack hits on RoL to take him out. By day 2 it was blatantly obvious that LSB wasn't town alligned. Diplomacy MiniMafia: In Qatol’s words: PYP3 (LSB was SK): LSB pushes a plan that is centered around confirming blue roles, giving SK all the information he could wish for to blue snipe. Busing his team mate to grant himself a town leader position, and direct medic protection on to himself only, is entirely the kind of power play LSB is known for. Part 2 and 3 coming up. On February 27 2011 19:04 Barundar wrote: Part 2: LSB’s bad logic and scumslips First of all, it’s difficult to pinpoint that exact moment in time, or post by annul, that convinces LSB that annul is mafia. In his first post: He is keeping annul’s play style in mind, so he is suspicious of him. In the next post LSB sound like he has already sorted annul as a lynch! Nothing happened between this post and the previous that should have raised his suspicion. But now it sounds like the lynch is already planned. While discussing with annul this post comes up. He is bad for town, but not necessarily mafia. His reason for voting. Doesn’t say annul is mafia. Note what a shit reason is, when was the last time you heard of someone who got persuaded to be modkilled? When LunarDestiny offered to get modkilled in mafia xxxvi, several mafia veterans felt the need to shout foul play in thread. Still isn’t mafia. Woops! Now not only is annul now mafia, he is also flipping red. Between the last posts annul hasn’t posted, there has been no new evidence. There is no smoking gun. Yet now annul is suddenly red. What’s even more interesting is this isn’t even brought up while talking about annul, it slips out when he is trying to connect others to annul. Now most people who has played mafia a few times will agree that there is no such thing as a proof of alignment, without either mod interference (like bumatlarge in mafia xxxvi) or stuff like DT checks after Godfather is dead. Even then a miller can mislead. In the end, the only sure thing is just a convincing analysis. For town there is always the possibility of being wrong. This result in a sliding indicator of suspicion against a player, that can get stronger or weaker depending on actions and arguments. Thus a vote for a townie is more a case of suspicion vs suspicion, where the guy with the highest amount of suspicion from the majority of the player gets voted off. LSB doesn’t go through a process of higher or lower suspicion. There is an obvious inconsistency between lynching annul for being obstructive to the town, to suddenly know he is red. This is not the only time LSB foregoes the suspicion state. For a lynch on Jackal, LSB demands “proof”: LSB is experienced enough to know there is no such thing as certainty, especially not on day 1. He dismisses the arguments I brought forward regarding Jackal, and while my arguments might be wrong, they should still raise suspicion. You can argue against the argument’s and disagree with the conclusions, but you can never get proof, since only mafia knows who’s red and who’s town. LSB doesn’t need convincing of Foolishness either: This argument has no behaviour support at this point in the game. It’s an arbitrary reason for placing trust in someone, and it lacks that distrust of others that is indicative of town behaviour. In part 1 I mentioned that a bunch of townies was already suspicious of annul before LSB enters the scene. They tried to reason with annul, and they asked him to explain his actions, also known as scumhunting. LSB is not actually concerned with scumhunting. He instead tries to find connections to other players: LSB doesn’t actually start scumhunting and asking questions before close to the deadline. In between his suspicious way of reaching the conclusion that annul was scum, he has a fight with annul, but not even here does he asks for explanations, or for better reasons. For him, it’s more important to find others to go after once annul flips red, than to actually get convinced of annul's allignment. On February 27 2011 19:08 Barundar wrote: Part 3: My response to his OMGUS I posted my analysis before you entered the picture, and before annul came back to spew nonsense. I doubt mafia was pressured at that point. They would be now though! How silly of them to initiate a fight with the guy who made sure he got the most town cred from yesterdays lynch. It’s day 1, there is limited information to pick from. Didn’t stop you from providing “proof” of annul of course. What’s interesting is you didn’t find Jackal’s post scummy at all. Other people did, and Darmousseh found it reasoned enough to vote for it. I still don’t know if Jackal is town or not, but you seem to do. Only mafia know’s whos innocent and whos guilty. The rest of us only have our arguments and assumptions. Nope, it’s an argument. I invoked past analysis on Jackal’s behaviour in my case against him. I might have be wrong, or I might have been right. Point is even the best analysis and most obvious reasons can be wrong. Your denial of this fact as a mafia vet is laughable. Lol yeah of course I used analysis in my analysis of Jackal. Now you are really trying hard. There is no contradiction. My argument was 1) of the 2 above, Jackal was posting unlike his past games. When he started posting more like he normally did my suspicion dropped a bit. Sadly that’s how suspicion works for us townies. Now let me show you a contradiction: if Jackal is such an awesome scumhunter, why don’t you place him as such on your list? You place him as an easy bus, yet I can’t recall jackal actually being lynched except as mafia. On the one hand you argue Jackal is a great scumhunter, on the other you argue he is an easy bus. So which one is it? I completely agree. See this post. You feel the need to green claim? Second time you claim townie. And wtf is up with you constantly sucking up to Foolishness, you scared of him? Even if he and I are dead wrong about LSB, there was intentionally bussing here. As for LSB, I think barundar said everything I could in the way of analysis. The only thing that really comes out as a defense for LSB is that he has been anti-town in so many of the past games, that he may have forgotten how to play townie but I'm not going to drone on that. I like facts, and whoop-de-doo I get some! On February 28 2011 01:04 bumatlarge wrote: Wow nice barundar, I didn't really look into LSB too hard, only that his ideas were presented in his typical and humorous way that makes it seem like a good-natured plan. His plans aren't, as far as I can tell, scummy, but they don't give a lot for town to use, and they don't inhibit mafia at all. Since Barundar didn't note them as much, LSB's lists are mostly opinionated and way too general to be of any serious help to town. His priority list has broad spectrums of what people are classified as, but he doesn't go into detail about the individuals, he just provides his reads on every single person. It's not bad to do, but it really just puts in your mind that "Oh LSB, he posted a list and stuff, he's useful" Along with barundar's reasons, I think LSB is red as well. I'll be voting him for now. I couldn't really do a full read on LSB's priority thing before, but I wish I had. I will do that here. + Show Spoiler + On February 27 2011 04:26 LSB wrote: There are three goals for night kills 1) Take out good players 2) Take out blues 3) Take out active players. Generally TL mafia shoots down all active players until the town kills itself with inactivity. Now, we can devide the people into 4 groups Btw, I define bus as mafia started lynch. Priority 1: Automatic night 1 snipes if possible These players are proven scumhunters LSB Foolishness Priority 2: Active vets These player have quiet a few games under their belt and are pretty active Barundar CubEdIn GMarshal Beneather seRapH chaoser LunarDestiny deconduo why Priority 3: Kill if you think they are blue These players are generally inactive, or easily to bus Coagulation Jackal58 Kenpachi gryffindor ohN Uncatagorized: Newish people, sort them into the three groups as they start playing icemac OriginalName JBright astroorion Gofarman MaxwellE Conversion kevconsim ICanFlyLow Ser Aspi LastArgument Please note, this isn't really indicative of skill. Someone like Jackal58 who is good at finding scum is increadibly easy to bus. On the other hand, people like DocH and Pandain (they aren't playing) are active, but aren't really good at finding scum. And this is all subjective some names I don't recognize, and I made it off of what I remember. Especially Priority 1 On February 27 2011 04:32 LSB wrote: How to use the list Firstly, the list should sort of establish a minimum threshold for a lynch. Basically if we are going to lynch a priority 1 person, the analysis must be far better than a priority 3 person, because if we're wrong, that would be far worse for the town. Secondly, we have to keep a watch of Priority 2 people. These people will start dropping like flies at night. At the same time there probably is 2-3 mafia in the list. This list may prove useful in the latter stages of the game, where there are lots of dead people. If Beneather and Barundar are the only ones left in Priority 2, and everyone else is a dead townie their, we can be 90% sure they are mafia. So this will be the Priority 2 watchlist. It won't be useful now, but day 4/5 it will be very useful as a place to start looking for scum Barundar CubEdIn GMarshal Beneather seRapH chaoser LunarDestiny deconduo why "But LSB", you ask, "does this work?" Yes! Look at Pokemafia. Infun is a priority 1 player. It was interesting how he didn't die. Well, that was because he was mafia. In addition, by publishing this list, mafia will probably be more warey of killing people who are priority two. It also gives an incentive for newer players to post lots, so they will get into priority two. If people have any suggestions for changes to the list, just post/pm me. First time I looked at this, I thought it was remarkably silly for LSB to put that much emphasis on his opinions on who should be protected and who should be looked out for. The fact that he is playing it off as a guideline for the entire town is a mistake, this list should be spoiler'd and labelled, "This is a guideline for only me, and to be used to explain my reasons." It's very general and late-game and to be used after a lot of people are dead. First off, priority 1. While foolishness is a great player, you are already putting him on the medic protection list based on his skill? I'd think that would be a little short-sighted to not say first "Well first we should assess his alignment as the game progresses" but the list hasn't changed tier-wise. Certainly, a person who a good number of people agree is town takes medical priority over a good player whose alignment is hard to tell. It forces me, in being suspicious of you, to also be suspicious of Foolishness without even looking at what he has done. First impulse makes me think both you and he are godfathers, and that the only people you need to convince are medics and vigis, if you can convince either then you can control the early part of the game. That's what I immediately draw from the list you made, without taking anything else. Next, I would like to go into the KP, it's format and it's possibilities. Facts: First night: Three kills - They all had to be mafia. Annul had dies, so it most likely left their KP at a X.5 variant. One godfather and 3 grunts would explain three kill-power as it is rounded-up. It could also be 2 GFs/1 grunt, or 3 GFs. Only possible role reversing would have been on a medic to kill someone, and in that case, medic should have claimed because they know his role. The KP could be higher Second night: Three kills - 2 claimed RBs and no claimed vig. 4KP. This involves a missing 1.0KP night 1 that isn't accounted for, or both the claims are lying. If only one claim is lying then KP yesterday was 3.5. If we assume only one Godfather, then mafia are either doing a ballsy double fakeclaim, or there is GF and still 5 grunts. That makes gryff right. LYLO is pretty close. Now, I can't say much on jackal, but LSB, one of the claims, is on my naughty list. This makes the claim veerrrry fishy. I think mafia will have more then 1 GF to at least give us time, and make correct lynches much more rewarding. There is 1 more grunt to even out annul as well. Would it be overwhelming for there to be 3 GFs? Not as much as 5 grunts and 1 GF I think. All in all, I don't think LSB is telling the truth. The only thing that is hard to wrap around is why LSB is claiming and not someone else, and why is there a need to claim. Most likely because LSB has a problem with needing to feel confirmed by town. It definitely hasn't done that for me. So LSB has been an ingredient for a lot of things I personally find rather scummy. 1) Annul's bus. 2) Barundar's analysis excluding annul. 3) LSB's lists and plans with his persona. 4) The mysterious KP. Big coincidences for LSB to be a part of everything. I'll be putting my vote on him again thank you. | ||
bumatlarge
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On March 03 2011 03:52 chaoser wrote: If that was the case then RoL would have written that in the OP. Yeah he was very specific on how KP was deduced. LSB flipping would shed an enormous amount of light on this game. | ||
bumatlarge
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On March 03 2011 05:30 LSB wrote: Hey guys? Why don't you be like gryffindor and think that Barundar is red and I'm bussing him again? Like I said, I don't care how its done, but I want Barundar to die. I'm sure he will die eventually. After you get lynched, mafia has no use of the WIFOM arguments that they thought they could put to use in explaining why he isn't dead or you aren't dead. Just come clean you godfather. | ||
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On March 03 2011 06:39 Foolishness wrote: That first PM convo was from the first day, when he was actually here and trying to post. According to my sources, he's been very inactive in PM land recently. I think we as teamliquid mafia players should all make a thread called "Lynching for information is stupid" in which we all post in it and say "lynching for information is stupid" and post examples from games that show "lynching for information is stupid". I hope I got my point across there -_- Are we solely lynching for information? Did barundar not just show his analysis of LSB and did I not give enough that disregards all information we would get out of the lynch? No. We are merely stating that in addition to an agreed concern of LSB's alignment shared by a lot of people, Bob Barker pops up and shows us all this neat stuff about people in this game and more. Maybe this is just an abstract warning, but no one is voting for LSB because "Oh I think he's town but I want to see anyway." Look guys, with the votes so spread out right now, a townie is sure to die. Some clever last minute mafia posting can easily lead to one or two people switching their votes onto a townspeople. At the very least we should pile onto two players would we think are the most suspicious (Seraph and Jbright in my opinion). I personally really liked your LD analysis, I'm not sure why you stopped. As for seraph and JBright, I don't know, and I don't care at the moment. If they are scum, they are weak and their defenses can be blown over with a sneeze. I think it's the oppostie direction. LSB is much easier to flesh out as mafia earlier rather then those two. I'm not going to grace them with a defense if they can't do it properly themselves. If the rest of the town thinks they are scum, then good we lynch one, I'm focusing on conclusions I've made on LSB for now. LSB has clearly shown that he is active enough to respond to posts against him. Thus he will definitely be 100% active tomorrow to answer posts against him. What about Seraph and JBright? Are they going to be active tomorrow to respond to our posts? Who knows. I know! This town will get on them. LSB will make some roundabout list about how some unrelated person deserves to get a bomb placed on them but not get vig'd and but maybe get protected. You should focus on one though. If you are going to argue for seraph and JBright, pick one and have everyone switch to that if mafia votes at the end concern you that greatly. We need to deal with our inactive scum suspects now. Yes, now. Not tomorrow or later. I don't care how much you think LSB is mafia, lynching him now is not in the best town's interest (I say this even though I am suspicious of him as well). How many mafia games have been played where town lynched all the active players who were "suspicious" and then lost because they couldn't figure out the inactive mafia players? Quite a lot, it happens almost every game the mafia win. Heartedly disagree. LSB is not just suspicious he has linked himself to every facet of this game you could want to find mafia in the middle of. LSB isn't a whim, I dont vote for whims. JBright and serpah seem like whims. I am not convinced LSB is mafia. Others have the same attitude I do. You want to convince me? Spend the rest of today, tonight, and tomorrow posting stuff against him. I guarantee you he's going to be here to respond (if he's not, that just makes it all the easier to convince the rest of us). Tomorrow I highly doubt we are going to have any new information on JBright or Seraph. Which is why we need to lynch one of them now and not later. PICK ONE PLEASE. If LSB is mafia, he'll slip up the more and more you guys pressure him (yeah you probably think he's slipped up 50 times already, but I'm not convinced). JBright and Seraph aren't going to slip up because they aren't going to ever post except to vote last minute. Do what's best for the town. btw did you guys know there is a player in this game by the name of "LastArgument"? Did you guys know that he's probably mafia? Just a friendly reminder. WHY BRING HIM UP NOW. You already are complaining about candidates being switched on and off, just make a nice case on one of them, tell everyone that's you're strongest inclination. Even if it's wrong it's much better then FoSing all these useless inactives that inevitably give mafia an out. I feel like you are trying very hard to take this off a single person, almost revving the chainsaw! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRWRWWWWWWWWWWRR! If LSB is town, foolishness is most definitely town in my eyes. I will submit my vote to him, vouch for protection on him every night and PM his inactive enemies with questions and discussions til they give up and ask RoL to let them surrender. | ||
bumatlarge
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There is no reason not to be on LSB/JB/Ser. I recommend you do that now so we make prepare for how the lynch will go down and eople can make dying post or identify vote switching clearly. Also, cube, you agree with foolishness and vote JB when he votes seraph i no understand. cubescumdin. | ||
bumatlarge
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Oh dear... :X ##Vote LSB lol... | ||
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IGMEOY: EVERYONE | ||
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