[TSL] Ladder Scenarios 2

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Ladder Scenarios

Rank	Player	Change	Points	Change
1.	TLAF-Liquid`TLO	--	151	--
2.	ieS-Ciara	--	140	--
2.	mouz.MorroW	19	140	+100
4.	Mill.Adelscott	1	126	--
4.	FnaticMSI.Fenix	1	126	--
6.	ESC.GoOdy	1	114	--
6.	ZeeRaX	1	114	+14
8.	mouz.Strelok	2	103	--
Qualifier Cutoff
9.	Mill.Stephano	1	79	--
10.	FXO.mOoNan	1	77	--
10.	Dignitas.SeleCT	1	77	--
12.	sixjax.NrG.dde	7	68	+26
13.	ROOT.KiWiKaKi	2	66	+14
14.	Empire.Beastyqt	3	65	--
14.	MYM.ClouD	3	65	--
14.	eSuba.PredY	3	65	--
14.	mouz.MaNa	3	65	--
14.	FnaticMSI.TT1	17	65	+51
19.	dignitas.SjoW	2	54	+14
20.	Mouz.Hasuobs	5	52	--
20.	aAa.Nerchio	5	52	--

The first thing you should notice about this table is that it's slightly longer than previous weeks. There is a good reason for that. I've listed the players who can get to at least a playoff position with a semifinal win and a bit of luck. I'll explain what that 'bit of luck' means shortly. There wasn't much movement this week. Morrow made a massive leap to second equal with his second place finish last week and TT1 made an impression with his semifinal appearance as well. One other thing you can read off immediately from the table is that unless one of the top 8 wins the next TSL Qualifier, coming second this week will not get you a place in the top 8. Meaning that if you haven't scored any points yet, your only hope for qualification is winning the whole tournament.


Is TLO safe yet?
Why yes he is! It is now mathematically impossible for TLO to be eliminated. He can drop a number of places, sure, but you will definitely see him in the main tournament in March.

Okay, but what about Morrow and Ciara?
Morrow and Ciara aren't quite safe. In an absolute worst case scenario for them we could have this happening:
- Adelscott and Fenix make the Ro8 (152 points)
- Goody and Zeerax make the Ro8 (142 points)
- Strelok makes a semifinal (154 points)
- Anyone with more than 40 points and less than 100 places second

This would force a playoff between Ciara and Morrow for the 8th spot on the ladder. Both of them can rest assured of at least a playoff spot. But let's look at this realistically, for them to be put into a playoff situation every single player below them has to perform tomorrow. As it stands, not all of them are even registered. And further, if the previous TSL Qualifiers have taught us anything it's that you can't rely on 7 players to perform on any given day. Thus, you may as well congratulate Morrow and Ciara for also making the TSL.

So Fenix and Adelscott aren't safe?
Well, they aren't mathematically safe. But the kind of scenarios where they are eliminated are incredibly unlikely - similar to Morrow and Ciara. Here is a worst case scenario for Fenix and Adel:
- Goody and Zeerax make the Ro16 (128 points)
- Strelok makes the Ro8 (129 points)
- Stephano or Select or Moonan make a semifinal (130 or 128 or 128 points)
- Anyone with more than 26 points and less than 79 places second

That would mean that Fenix and Adel are both eliminated. Now this is a lot more likely to happen than Morrow or Ciara being eliminated, but it again requires both at least two of Zeerax, Goody and Strelok to perform and requires one (or two) of the 70 point players to make a semifinal. Quite a specific scenario and one that is probably not going to happen. Still, I wouldn't quite say they are in the TSL just yet - just to be on the safe side.

Is 114 points going to be enough to cut it?
Maybe, but probably not. It's fairly likely that one of our semifinalists will be one of the players ranked 9th-14th from the table above. If any one of them is able to make it to the Ro4 then they will have more than 114 points. Also, if Strelok scores points this week then he will have more than 114 points. Given that the runner up this week has more than 14 points already, if Goody and Zeerax don't score any more points they might both be eliminated.

Let me make this clear. Let's assume the runner up this week has more than 14 points. If Strelok scores points, a tiebreaker will be forced between Goody and Zeerax. If someone from ranks 9-14 make a semifinal then a tiebreaker is forced. If both happen, they are eliminated. I would not like to be in their shoes this week since they are so close to qualifying. To not make it now would be incredibly disappointing for them.

The balance of power - Strelok
Unlike other players in the top 8, Strelok will be eliminated if he doesn't score points this week (assuming the second place finisher already has points). This means that this week is do or die for Strelok. But his performance is greatly going to affect Zeerax and Goody as previously discussed. In all likelihood, the fate of Zeerax-Goody-Strelok is going to come down to how well Strelok performs.


What about everyone else?
I have some bad news;
- If you haven't scored points, your only chance of qualifying is by winning the whole thing
- If you are outside of the top 8, making it to the Ro8 isn't going to get you qualified.

Yes, if you aren't in that top bunch this week your life is going to be very difficult. There are two groups of players really - those who can definitely qualify off of a semifinal and those who need a second place. The first group of players are the players ranked 9 through 14. They include the likes of Stephano, Select, KiwiKaki, Cloud, Mana and TT1. If they are able to make it to the Ro4 this week then they should qualify (unless Goody, Zeerax and Strelok all score points this week). So their fate is in their own hands - perform, or miss out on the TSL.

For the second group of players is defined by everyone who has less than or equal to 51 points. They cannot possibly qualify off of a semifinal finish (since they will be below Strelok) and so their only option is to make it to the final. There are a lot of notable players in this group - but in particular Namaa, Darkforce, Insolence and Socke. This just goes to show how brutal the TSL really is.

There are three players which are unique in that a semifinal finish *might* be just enough to make it. They are Sjow, Hasuobs and Nerchio. If someone from the top 8 wins the TSL Qualifier this week and nothing else in the Top 8 change (except for the second place finisher making it through) then a semifinal finish would be enough to Sjow to qualify, and Hasu and Nerchio to tie with Strelok and force a tiebreaker. Now this is pretty unlikely, but still worth mentioning since any glimmer of hope should be realised by everyone!

What incentive do TLO, Morrow, Ciara, Adel and Fenix have to play the TSL Qualifier?
Primarily for bracket position. While we won't reveal exactly how the bracket is being generated just yet, we can tell you that the better you perform in the TSL Qualifiers the stronger the position you will receive in the bracket. Thus finishing well is desirable, assuming they want an easier first round opponent!


O Canada!
Despite the lack of action on the ladder last week, there was one country determined to do it's best to break into the top 8! Three Canadian players made good runs last week and as a result TT1, Kiwikaki and dde are all within one semifinal of making the TSL. The USA already has 4 players in the TSL while Canada only has one (Huk) - it's time for Canada to squeeze one or two more guys into the TSL and even things up a bit.

Speaking of the USA....
Where are the USA players at? So far the only expected qualifier from the states is qxc. Cruncher came from no where and Idra/Tyler were invited. It's not like there aren't a lot of good players in the USA either; but players like Incontrol and Axslav are yet to score points! Select and Moonan (both of South Korean origin) are the only players living in the USA who have a realistic shot at making it into the TSL. While players like Sheth have no choice but to make the final or go home. All in all, I think it's safe to say everyone has been a bit taken back by the lack of top NA games making it into the TSL.