TL Mafia XLIII
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
Vigis, because there are probably a lot of you in here: Do not shoot unless it is at confirmed scum. If you feel you must shoot anyway, take out lurkers and liars. This sort of common sense is all too often ignored, and results in dead town. Even take DT claims with a grain of salt. If analysis points to a player being town when a claimed check has shown red, proceed with caution. It could be a miller or a scum's fake claim in order to waste a vig shot, especially if the claimed DT player has been under suspicion. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 02 2011 09:22 Curu wrote: Fake claiming Medic acts like real Medic, because then Mafia can never hit the person they are told to protect without risking outing the fake claimer. Fake claiming Vig is terrible when we know Mafia KP, they can be caught ezpz. Good point about vig. Medic is a good claim for them, however, for just the reason you stated. It functions exactly like a real medic. i.e.) We have no way to distinguish between them. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 02 2011 09:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote: has nothing to do with fake claims in fact the fake mafia claims are the only part of the plan that i like that i think would be advantageous too bad the day vig will just get smoked night 1 and none of this will matter There's many things that have the potential to go wrong. Regardless, I agree with you. At it's heart, it's not a bad plan, there are just far too many things that can cause it to be detrimental, and I would be much more comfortable with our blues using their powers as they see fit as individuals. By all means, discuss with a town circle if you can get one going, but until that point, think for yourself. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 02 2011 09:33 Trotske wrote: I would be for this plan on like day 3 with a sniper using the second shot because by then we would have a lot more info to make a better choice on who to shoot and if we do kill a townie with it by accident it would give us even more info. I don't much care for this attitude. You're brushing off the potential of a town hitting town by stating that it will give us info. How exactly would it do that? The only information it gives us is that our sniper is a shitty scumhunter. Mafia hits are the only kills we gain information from. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 02 2011 19:35 Lucidity wrote: redFF, forever RED? I certainly hope you have a better reason for this than Drazerk did | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 02 2011 21:04 syllogism wrote: No one is confirmed scum until they flip. You even go on to say red checks can be millers or the DT fake claiming; vigs should be shooting at people they believe are likely scum. Overall I'm not a huge fan of this post as you joined the anti-sandroba plan wagon quite late, you cover all the angles without really taking a strong position and the part about DTs fake claiming feels a bit forced. I came in late because that's the first time I had available to post, as I had just got home from work. That will be when I post every day from monday-saturday, not because I lurk. What I said are my thoughts and opinions. I couldn't care less whether you're a fan of that or not, because the only way things get done in this game is by sharing them. I stand behind that post still, as I don't think that sandroba's plan will benefit us. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 03 2011 06:28 youngminii wrote: nah i was just kidding Anyway, I'd rather Mig die than Lucidity/Varpulis. I dunno, the latter two just seem so.. Normal? While Mig is screaming "I'M SCUM". Maybe it's just me. What is Mig doing? He is scumhunting. I would not be okay with a lynch on Mig unless he makes some sort of blatantly obvious scum slip. Lucidity and Varpulis are being far more scummy than Mig is. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 03 2011 07:21 Munk-E wrote: Below is some analysis of varpulis' posts i'll do more people later. Don't forget about this. I really hate when players say they will and then fail to contribute, because then I have to get them lynched. They're usually scum though, so it works out well in the end. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 03 2011 11:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote: At the moment I am not feeling either Varp lynch or the lucidity lynch. Factor in both at the moment are being more active than most players in the game, I would be more inclined to at least let them live another cycle. I however don't like when players come in to hop on bandwagons or attempt to start them then vanish. It irks me completely. As such, until Drazerk comes back into the thread to at least play / explain his inactivity I suggest we move our lynch to him. I would rather lynch someone appearing scummy / useless than someone who is being linked as scummy and is active. Their activity will help clear / damn them whereas inactivity doesn't give us dick all to work with. I support this statement, with a slight exception. I don't like the way Varpulis is looking so far, and I would be okay with voting/lynching him. Drazerk is interesting though, and I'll consider placing my vote on him instead of Varp. Lurking is extremely scummy, especially after attempting to instigate a bandwagon on someone. I don't like the Lucidity wagon at all. Something about it just feels off to me, and I feel that Lucid has been playing pro-town, sharing thoughts and developing logical reads. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 02 2011 08:41 Drazerk wrote: ##Vote RedFF Opposing sand's plan with no real reasons while defending himself like a mad man in IRC when he has no real reason to defend himself yet. This is the post in which he initially accused redFF. Note the complete lack of actual evidence. It was until his suspect actually encouraged him to post the irc log that he did so, and that arrived almost 20 minutes after this quoted post. Then, as you all know, he completely disappeared while posting actively elsewhere on the site. Let's lynch ourselves a scum day 1. ##Vote: Drazerk | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 03 2011 21:09 youngminii wrote: I'm sticking to Varp. If he flips scum then BC/JeeJee should be looked at for a weird chainsaw defence. The attack on Drazerk was a bit unnecessary and looks as if they wanted to shift attention away from Varp without attacking Lucidity. Mentioned this on IRC already but might as well post it here too. Nothing is concrete though. This is quite possible, and Varp is looking really really bad right about now. On a scum scale I would put Varp and Drazerk at the same level, but there is one difference: Varp is relatively active, whereas Drazerk has managed to come across as scum in 4 posts and then vanished completely. Varp tomorrow, or maybe a vig hit on him tonight. Today I feel better voting for Draz | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I'm not a fan of Munk-E either. Remember earlier when he promised to post some analysis on more players? Still haven't seen it. If we had more time I would make a case against him for today, but there is no point bringing in another suspect this late in the day. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 04 2011 10:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If I don't get any PM's from invited players to the game i'm going to start the game at 8 PST (in an hour and a half) ??? wrong thread? | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 05 2011 02:52 ghrur wrote: Make him seem really fish. He said he was going to go with Varp, but he never did. He also seems really hesitant about voting varp. "Hope I'm not hiding a mistake." Townies shouldn't feel that careful about making a mistake, especially since everything was pretty much decided by then. He also calls him out for being wishy-washy, against meta, and scummy. Meanwhile, he says Drazerk's meta doesn't fit his scum. Idk why a vote wasn't placed on Varp by him unless he is scum. I voted for Varp... | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
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chaos13
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On August 05 2011 07:07 syllogism wrote: Mass claim to mig All too easy for scum to claim vet. Yeah, I have a town read on him, but by no means is he 100% confirmed town. | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 05 2011 22:56 Mig wrote: Don't disappear on me lucid! I would also really like to hear who chaos intends on voting for today. I was going to make a case against/vote for Munk-E until I read what Mig had to say about 3 medic claims, all from vet players. With that in mind, I'm voting JeeJee. I won't rehash the same arguments that everyone else has said, but take a look at this defense On August 06 2011 05:40 JeeJee wrote: everyone thinks i'm scum, arguing against a person everyone thinks is town. you're right, where did i see the parallel This time I'll let my flip be my argument. I don't balance or host games, how do you expect me to argue that 3 docs is impossible given two roleblockers (maybe more) and two kp? I don't even agree with that. Before the claims you said that me/cobbs were suspects primarily because you don't think the roles were RNG'd, how do you want me to respond to that? Neither is a tunnel I want to go down, since my views are fundamentally different from yours. So, see you on the flip side. (c wat i did thar?) There's literally no defense, no explanation of his actions. This is a fear tactic, trying to make people nervous of lynching a doc. If town, he would be reasonable, explain why he has been playing in the manner he has (lurking like a mofo, not giving opinions), and in the end would not be too worried about being lynched, since it would mean that we are that much closer to nailing a scum out of DrH and BC. I'll write up a case on Munk-E later tonight once I've had supper since I still think he's scum, but JJ here is a better lynch today. I'd also like to apologize for my lack of activity. I've been really busy at work, and today was an especially long day. ##Vote: JeeJee | ||
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
Post #1 + Show Spoiler + On August 02 2011 11:07 Munk-E wrote: But player x is protected in this case, and they wouldn't shoot player Y! They'd shoot player Z because shooting Y would give away the role and if x was the obvious one to protect, they'd assume he was protected. That being said I highly doubt there are 2 medics anyways so if this situation does arise, I would be VERY suspicious of both of them. As for the plan, I'm quite worried about it. We would have a confirmed townie, which could be nice IF he could manage to efficiently manage the entire game. It seems a bit risky if they're not very good, they might screw it up and reveal roles. Also, the medic would be tied to defending this one person the entire time no matter what. If someone shows they are DT or vigi, then the mafia will just shoot both if we haven't killed 2 by then. In the mean time, the mafia could just kill him outright, or pick 2 people they KNOW won't be protected, and it's entirely up to them. If they do kill him, then we have (likely) 2 dead townies, and be back to square 1! No confirmed townie, just a dead guy, and the guy he killed.I kind of think that people are hoping he does hit a Mafia, but I really don't see the logic in this plan. It's more likely he'll hit someone important on our team than a mafia. In the end, i suppose it's entirely up to the dayvigi if the plan goes through, but it just seems highly illogical to me. This post is, obviously, addressing sandroba's plan. The majority of it is logical, makes sense, and doesn't seem to push a mafia agenda really. One thing doesn't sit will with me, however, and that is where he casts suspicion on multiple medic claims. At this point, he shouldn't have a clue as to the setup. It's as if he is setting town up for something that will come later, which would most likely be the mafia GF (JeeJee, anyone?) claiming medic. The mafia team can then push for a lynch on the real medic with support from town, if this seed planted by Munk-E grew at all. Post #2 + Show Spoiler + On August 03 2011 07:21 Munk-E wrote: Below is some analysis of varpulis' posts i'll do more people later. Here he says to not shoot day 1, unless you want to that is, then just reveal your plan forcing you to shoot anyways because you're gonna die, because you revealed your role. I don't see his opinion, because he keeps changing it in this post. at the beginning he says to not shoot, as always and it is especially important in this game, followed by him saying it's okay for dayvigs to shoot. Furthermore he tells them to claim before shooting! Claiming is a death sentence, and it means they'd have to shoot to take people down with them, because they're gonna die anyway. As an aside, does anyone know what his favorite role is? So, here he fully supports the plan again despite his own extra important rule of not shooting day 1. He first says no shooting, then says maybe IF you make sure your going to get yourself killed, and finally now he's all for it! Here he will eat his hat if his plan that he loves so much which goes against his extra important rule actually works... this is after being asked why he likes the plan after he gave his own piece of evidence against it (above)! He gives no answer. Instead, he reverts to a compromise of his beloved plan. and no varpulis, it's a 20% chance. I'm not willing to take that risk, especially because it's roughly the same odds we'll hit a blue. Here his is accusing redff for taking the position of the argument HE'S taking! (Maybe he lost track by now!) It seems like he's just trying to accuse someone for the sake of accusing! Wishy-washy doesn't even begin to explain this. He just won't make up his mind! While I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum, it is VERY suspicious. Unfortunately however, I don't think it's possible to brand him as scum from JUST this. but he's certainly quite possibly scum. Note that here he promises more analysis later. I would like to bring everyone's attention to the very last paragraph of this. Paraphrased: "Varp is scum because he's wishy washy. This doesn't make him scum for sure, but it's really suspicious. However, I can't call him scum from this, but he's possible scum." This is a clear bus on a teammate, and he's labeling varp scum for the same behavior he is displaying. Post #3 + Show Spoiler + On August 04 2011 03:53 Munk-E wrote: K here's mig's portfolio analyzed. Killing for "Information" is just plain stupid. That's saying a random lynch is a good idea! 1 night of well organized night actions is not worth it at all. I have stated my ideas on this plan before, and to me it seems the only people for it would be scum, or, frankly, dumb people. The mafia would all claim scout, because it would be to risky to claim anything else. and after night 1, no one knows each other's roles again. He can't pm them to all the other blues, just IN CASE one of the mafia did claim a blue role. Enough about that though. He also says then to shoot at the smaller batch because there would be about 16 people which is less. So great, we take a 20% chance of hitting a mafia followed immediately by a MAXIMUM of a 25% chance. by the end of night 1 we'd be likely 4 townies down depending on our lynch. Here mig votes for varp for being wishy washy. That might be fine except he's against him for saying the plan where we take a random shot without knowing is bad. obviously this is bad, and he uses this quote to accuse him? I don't see why he would unless he's trying to put pressure on him for being against this plan! It doesn't make sense to me, and frankly seems scummy. He seems VERY eager to get everyone's opinion on everyone, he PMed me asking my opinion on chaos and varp, to which i responded blandly and generically. It seems to me like he is trying to find out who's most likely to be lynched in the future so he can defend them if necessary. I don't see why a townie would need to know everyone's opinion on everyone. He seems to be trying to pressure G.G. here. Not to accuse him of potentially being scum, but to try to get his opinion on people. He seems like his only here to find out our opinions on each other! The only reasons I can think of for this would be to start a civil war between townies or try to manipulate votes. Both seem very scummy. Maybe this I didn't read the rules, but I'm pretty sure high post count =/= town. This is your only defense so far and it's not legitimate at all. I don't see why activity is a "town" thing to do. and why lurking is a mafia thing really, especially if being a lurker makes them suspected as being mafia. (Meta, huh?) Anyway, i might vote for him depending on if i think lucidity is more scummy or not. (P.S. Saying "If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me." is more of an invitation than a defense.) This analysis came almost a full 24 hours after he promised it. Takes time to figure out how to call a town player scum, doesn't it? To begin with, this is an aggressive analysis against a player who has arguably been one of the most pro-town voices in the thread. After all, Mig called varp out before anyone else and was the driving force behind his lynch. Take a look at the second paragraph of this analysis. He calls Mig out for voting Varp on the reason that he thought he was scum for being wishy washy. Remember that analysis of Varp? Main point was that he was wishy washy. Contradiction! Hypocrisy! Scum! Next, he blames varp for PM'ing people and discussing stuff with them. lol. Then he says he responded blandly and generically. LOL. Then he says he doesn't see how being active is a town trait. LMAO This is so scummy it's almost funny. Post #4 On August 04 2011 05:42 Munk-E wrote: He was before I went to bed yesterday, when I started. All I can really say is +1 to BC. Makes absolutely no sense. Post #5 + Show Spoiler + On August 04 2011 06:01 Munk-E wrote: Yeah this is pretty important. Why on earth does he want soldiers to claim? It would FORCE them to sacrifice themselves for a random shot? He's so all over the plan, it makes me think that at first his scum buddies tried to endorse the plan, but when it was seen as bad, they backed off. He tried to make it continue in a way that couldn't POSSIBLY be beneficial and would help mafia a LOT. For some reason he seems to think activity is a reason that you're not scum! I never have and likely never will see the logic behind this. It seems like a scum's way of not having to post anything of value, yet still be considered a townie. For these reasons, i would like to ##vote Varpulis Took a while to actually get around to a vote, especially after that big analysis on him that was done before. Reluctant to bus your scumbuddy, eh? Post #6 + Show Spoiler + On August 04 2011 06:33 Munk-E wrote: -____- you're voting for varp as well. The reason I quoted lucid was because he mentioned how I forgot that post. Which I did. It's an important post. My analysis of him before I mention his wishy washyness and how he tried this once. The fact that he tried it again is big! It says that he really wants them to claim and it wasn't a stupid idea he had for a minute. TBH, It would have been a toss up between varp and lucid for me, but I haven't done proper analysis of lucid, so voting for him would look VERY suspicious. I think both are scum anyway. You think both are scum, and yet you think it would look suspicious to vote for lucid? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Post #7 + Show Spoiler + On August 05 2011 07:58 Munk-E wrote: Lucidity analysis! this first post is very VERY for the plan to the point that he immediately calls scum on people for it. They both later attacked him for this, and Redff even voted to lynch him. I think he is WAY to for the plan here without even considering the consequences. It seems scummy to me to pressure people that disagree with you. Here DH is defending himself from lucidity's aggressiveness quite well, however he just continues to press the issue. He is still calling scum for having a different opinion here. He would give an arm and a leg for this plan it seems at this point. Here he votes for redFF (But doesn't actually vote for him). I find it strange that he's THIS passionate this early on in the game! I mean seriously WTF? He is given A LOT of reasons why the plan is dumb, but he refuses to hear it! He just keeps accusing! By this point, most people were against the plan. Yeah... I'm not sure how much I buy that defense of "Oops, klutzy me! I thought there'd be more medics!" as an excuse to completely change his mind from "This plan is so good that everyone against it is obviously scum" to. "This plan is stupid!" This is the scummiest post I think he's made. I mean it would be hard to make that transition, and it losing popularity requires you to if your against it so hard and you want to be in the majority. and why would you want to be in the majority so bad? If you're scum. This post astonished me. At first i thought since he voted for varp after it was the bandwagony thing to do. However, if you look at the time, at the time of this post Varp only had 2 votes for him from a while ago. This post sort of STARTS the bandwagon on varp! I don't know if this was intentional or not, but WTF! Up until now I was sure lucidity was scum, but this makes me wonder! Here he is completely against the plan now. He was so for it at first and now is completely against it. He even states that no one is for it anymore. His backing of the plan is directly proportional to it's overall popularity. He just wants to blend in, like a chameleon that works for the mafia. In the end, I just don't know! He's VERY scummy with his bandwagon hopping when it comes to the plan, and sure he only voted varp after the bandwagon was rolling, but he was in second and might have done that to avoid being lynched, not to seem inconspicuous.if varp had flipped town, i would think he'd definitely be mafia, but he started a bandwagon on varp, it may be accidental for all i know and he was just trying to distance himself, but it seems strange that he would do this. P.S. sorry about not talking at night i didn't know it was a rule. This analysis is relatively weak, and what do we get at the end of it? A complete inconclusive. A repeat of his "Yeah, could be, but I don't know". Serious scum right here. Conclusion: Munk-E is [b]Mafia We take him out tonight or tomorrow without hesitation. | ||
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