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It’s that magical time of the year where nerds the world over look at a list of Starcraft players and decide who they think is most likely to succeed in the coming season. I set out to help y’all make your choices so you can sleep soundly with visions of sugar plums dancing in your head microing their units as hard as they can. Sugar plums of course meaning Horang2.
Anyway, like everything else that I’ve ever written, I did it the night before it’s “due.” As such, I only did players who are worth 6 points or more. I’d love to slam out some more but it took a fair bit of time to do the ones I have. Here you go! :
Bisu - 10 - Along with the other 10-pointers, it’s almost impossible for Bisu to turn out to be a bad choice. He’s sure to get plenty of play time and, let’s face it, he’s going to win most of those games. So the real question is not whether Bisu is worth 10 points, but rather, could those 10 points be spent better? To be frank, its a personal judgment. But hopefully reading this will help you make that judgment. : )
Flash - 10 - Similar to Bisu, though arguably even stronger. One important point to make is the lack of an ace match in the coming Proleague season. I feel like that really hurts the value of these top players (aces of their respective teams) tremendously. Yes, you can count on Flash probably getting his win. But he will no longer be able to get two.
Jaedong - 10 - Rounding out the trio of legendary birds top dogs is Jaedong. Personally I feel like he’s a pretty shady pick right now. Of the trio, he’s had the least enviable results in the closing stages of last year’s proleague. He went through the last two months of the season with a record of 9-7, including two nice wins over Flash but also some losses to the likes of Ggaemo and Hero[join]. Given, those were ZvZs, but there was a time where that wouldn’t matter. Still, 9-7 is above average and after all, he is Jaedong. Another note is that he’s on a new team. He has better practice partners now than he did in Oz, but he may still need readjusting. Altogether, I would say he’s a very risky pick, but one that can certainly pay off dividends.
Jaedong doesnt approve of my assessment. Picture taken from Milkis’ translation here.
Fantasy - 8 - Probably the second best Terran, a fan favourite, one of few players who boasts a 60%+ overall winrate, and a recent OSL and Proleague finalist, Fantasy is certainly an enticing pick. But there are some problems here. For one, 8 points is a lot. Yes, Fantasy is really good, but he’s also really inconsistent. Let’s take a look at his Proleague performance from the beginning of last May.
“Shit” - Fantasy
Yes, that’s Fantasy with a 41% winrate and a 6 game loss streak that included losses to the likes of Where and Reality. On the other hand, if we look at his first 16 games of the season, we instead get this:
“Ye, up yours, son !” - Fantasy
Suddenly we’re looking at close to a 70% winrate and a 10 game winstreak. Now he’s looking pretty good, eh? Overall he’s very similar to Jaedong with the amount of risk versus potential reward.
Hydra - 8 - Now, I’m probably one of the bigger Hydra fans out there so take this with a grain of salt. The guy is freaking good. He did not drop a single Proleague match from December of 2010 straight through the end of April the following year. A 12 game win streak that included Jaedong, Killer, Kal, and Light. Later, in May and June, he picked up 8 more straight wins, including one over Flash.
The only thing I fear is the CJ Zerg Curse. Once upon a time there was a man called Lord Voldemort Savior, who we’re all familiar with. When he started to fade away, Effort suddenly showed up and, though his first official appearance was a narrow 2-1 win over Tossgirl in the GomTV Classic, went on to become one of the greatest zergs in the universe. Then, when Effort retired, suddenly Hydra stepped up his game and established himself in the footsteps of Effort. But that creates a problem. Can CJ have only one amazing zerg at a time? And if so, now that Effort is back, which one of them will it be? Only time will tell.
On the whole, though, I personally feel like if you’re going to pick up an 8-pointer, Hydra is your best bet.
Stork - 8 - I’m going to be very up-front with this one. I dont think you should get Stork. Yes he’s really good, but 8 points is a ton. Especially for a man who finished last PL season with a kind of mediocre record of 24-19. Even less appealing, in his last 20 games of the season, he went 9-11. Granted, one of those wins was over PvP savant Horang2, but that’s matched by more depressing losses than I can bear to name. Frankly, I’d advise you to stay away from him, though banishing him to your anti-team might be a bit over the top.
ZerO - 8 - Since I was honest about my love of Hydra, it’s only fair that I concede I haven’t seen many of Zero’s games. But I do know how to operate TLPD and can tell when some numbers are bigger than others ! /brag
In Proleague, Zero is a certifiable monster. Starting from the beginning of May, he won 75% of him games with his 18-6 record. Among those trampled beneath him were none other than Flash (though if we’re being fair, he lost an MSL finals to him 0-3 just a month prior), Bisu, and Fantasy. Finishing the season on such a tear, coupled with being mostly unaffected by the off-season drama, Zero is looking good to have a solid 2011-2012.
Bogus - 7 - Unfortunately, STX isn’t looking too hot this year. If there’s one beacon of light, however, it’s Bogus. Take a look at his match history, specifically at his losses:
First, notice that there aren’t too many of them. Secondly, take a look at who they’re to! Flash, Jaedong, Soulkey, Best, Hydra, Bisu, and Firebathero. Those are all among the best players in the world, at least in XvT. His proleague record was 25-13 and the most games he lost in a row at any point was two. Just trust that is absolutely insane and even most of the super players can’t claim that. Unfortunately, that also means that he doesn’t typically score a ton of consecutive wins relative to what other players of a similar winrate do, and you’ll note that you get extra points for win streaks. Still, he finished to Proleague seasons with 7 straight wins, and that has to count for something right?
I think Bogus is a really great choice !
Movie - 7 - This one’s hard for me. I really like him, and he’s been doing really good lately, but I feel like he’s one of the most off-and-on players around. He went 12-4 in PL matches since May but 6-7 before it. Another problem with him is that Proleague is back to a best of 5 format and CJ is incredibly stacked as it is. Specifically, their Protoss line also features Horang2 and Snow, making it incredibly competitive for play time. That could, however, be seen as an advantage. You’ll note that you lose points if your player loses. If Movie starts to lose a lot, he simply won’t get played any more and you’ll be just fine. : )
But whatever you do, do not put Movie on your anti-team for the same reasons I just stated. Either he does really good and you get destroyed, or he does really bad and he doesn’t get played anymore. It’s just a bad risk imo.
Sea - 7 - As you’re all aware, Sea has always been known as a Proleague beast and last year was no exception. He went 24-16 and finished well, with some shakiness in the middle. Unfortunately he’s not quite on that highest echelon right now, struggling to beat the best of the best, but he’s certainly far above average. And hey, who doesn’t struggle with the super players?
Still, there’s a bit of a problem here. Sea has been the ace of his team for a long time. He’s the one who always pulls everything together, the sturdy rock that his team leans on for support. With his recent move to Team 8, this may no longer be the case. Could this throw him off mentally? Only time will tell. Personally, I’m a bit wary of choosing Sea.
Stats - 7 - Ah, Flash’s sidekick. He’s about as close as you can be to that top tier of progamers without actually being there. Still, he’s absolutely instrumental to KT’s success and is often counted on to bring home a win. And he certainly is pretty reliable, going 27-20 last PL season. Just look at his results in the playoffs last year. He started off a bit shaky against STX in the first round but win all three games he played against Woongjin, both his games against CJ, and his grand final game against SKT’s Soo. So however you want to look at it, he’s super clutch.
To be honest, if he was 6 points’ I’d consider him an absolute steal. But I’m a bit hesitant to shell out 7 for him and would rather put those into Bogus.
BaBy - 6 - I really don’t know what to make out of this guy. Anybody who’s been following him the last couple of years knows that he’s really good. He’s capable of beating anyone in the world. But his last season was sketchy at best. Overall he finished with a mediocre 18-15 with a particularly disappointing closing couple of months. But how much of that can be attributed to the disbanding of WeMade and the questionable nature of his career in progaming looming over his young mind? Baby is certainly a risk, capable of flopping horribly, but it is a risk that can pay off massively. He may finally emerge as one of Korea’s very top players. At 6 points, he’s not a huge investment and is certainly worth considering.
Horang2 - 6 - Okay, Horang2 is my absolute favourite player in the universe. Go back up and re-read about Movie. A lot of those things apply to Horang2 as well. But he’s 1 point cheaper! And hes so much more baller! But its not just mindless fanboyism. He’s got the numbers to back it up! He went 21-11 last season, including 12-3 in PvP. Like wtf? Why so good, Horang2?!
As such, I feel like a lot of his value will come down to coach. If he’s frequently lined up against his fellow brotoss, he could easily become one of the most valuable players in the league. Also, with CJ’s deep lineup and Proleague’s return to a bo5 format, there is a chance only one protoss will emerge victorious and get the most playtime. I for one hope that it’s Horang2! : )
Jaehoon - 6 - Again, I just dont know what to think of this. For what seems like forever Jaehoon has, along with Hyuk, been the king of mediocrity. But then last year he puts up a 65% winrate with 23 wins and only 12 losses. The year before that? 6-12. What the hell happened? All I know is if he can keep up his results from last year, he’ll be a real threat.
And to save you the trouble of having to look it up: Yes, he’ll probably have a regular spot on Team 8’s lineup. Perhaps he’ll have some competition from Tyson for that 5th spot, but he’s looking good to get a lot of playtime.
JangBi - 6 - Claiming a recent OSL Gold after taking out Fantasy and Flash, among a host of others, Jangbi looked fantastic. But it’s been said that his entire team worked really hard and really specifically to get him as prepared as he could be. Still, he looked spectacular while doing it. If he can still play at the level he showed just a few months ago, he could be worth his weight in gold. He’s pretty cheap because of the 13-18 record he put up last PL season, but that of course doesn’t reflect his incredible OSL run. I have really high hopes for Jangbi and super genuinely feel he’s going to do great.
KiLLeR - 6 - It seems like only yesterday when Jaedong’s sidekick was the laughing stock of the scene. But he changed his ID, wiped off the nuclear waste and came back with a vengeance. Unfortunately, though he’s much better than he once was, he’s mediocre at best. I’m frankly not sure how he came to be valued at 6 points. He’s just off a pretty respectable OSL run and a pretty okay Proleague season with a record of 17-18 but I just can’t imagine him being a good pick. Unless you really like Killer, I’d steer away from him. Personally I’m kinda leaning towards him being a pretty solid Anti-team pick, even though he’s guaranteed a lot of playtime.
Edit: I'm not gonna change what I wrote because that would just make things confusing but I have seen the light. A number of people have chimed in on him being a lot better than I gave him credit for and a lot better than his record suggests. Hopefully soon I'll get to actually watch some games that show how great he is !
Leta - 6 - Leta is another consistent Proleague beast and I think this the cheapest I’ve ever seen him. I’ve heard him described as somewhat of an “S-Class Indicator.” That is, if you can consistently beat up Leta, you’re probably S-Class at least in XvT (I’m talking to you, Skyhigh). For example, he’s 6-12 against Flash, 1-8 against Jaedong, and 0-4 against Skyhigh. But overall, he’s still an amazing player, particularly in Proleague. Last season, he went 20-12 with a 10 game winstreak that included Stats, Soulkey, and Zero. Just to top it off, he rounded out the season with an amazing playoff win over Flash in one of the best TvT’s I’ve seen to date. I think Leta’s a great use of 6 points.
Light - 6 - If Flash, Bisu, and Jaedong are the three legendary birds, Light has to be Gengar. Firstly, he’s invisible of course. Secondly, he’s really damn good. You cant really go wrong with him since he’s super strong across all three matchups. He went 28-16, finished on a 5 game win streak that was largely beating up KT players in the playoffs, and served as a reliable ace for both MBC and Woongjin. Just to make it sweeter, since May of this year, he went 17-5! I feel like I’ve been saying this for a lot of the 6-pointers, but Light is certainly a good choice if you can find him.
Neo.G_Soulkey - 6 - This is one of those guys that people really started noticing in this last year. And for good reason. He served as the perfect accomplice for Zero, and later joined also by Light, to lead Woongjin to a remarkable playoff run that took the eventual champs to their limits. Although he didn’t have [i]a ton of wins against the top dogs, he did manage to take games off Stork, Fantasy, Sea, Jaedong, Leta, and Jangbi. Altogether, he went 28-15. Interestingly, in just one year of Proleague, he managed to hit Bogus four times, winning three of those encounters. As much as Soulkey is a great player, it seems like there are just so many other 6-pointers who could serve you better (just please for the love of christ dont get Jaehoon or Killer as a replacement T_T).
Snow - 6 - Completing the trio of CJ Protoss’ is Snow. Again, though I feel like picking up one of them is a good idea, Snow seems like weakest choice. He put up mediocre numbers last PL season, with 16 wins and 15 losses, and is the same price as Horang2 (1 point cheaper than Movie). The one advantage he has, and its up to you to decide how important this is, is that Snow is the best of the three at PvT, while Movie is great at PvZ and Horang2 is freaking unworldly amazing specializes in PvP. How relevant is that? I’m not too sure, but it’s something to consider.
Thanks for reading as far as you did! I wish I had more time (and more specifically, more patience to do this in one sitting) so that I could get to more people, but hopefully this will be helpful anyway. I find a lot of the time I have more trouble picking which high-value players to pick up than anything else, so maybe this can help with that. It certainly, helped me, if nothing else.
Bye !
Bibbit is a guy who has had mediocre FPL results at best and hopes that if he writes an article big enough, nobody will notice. You can stay updated whenever he writes something by following him at www.twitter.com/Bibbit_Mack
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Just realized that Each of the trio of protosses of CJ specialize in a different matchup.
Nice write-up. Should've chimed in on Effort imo, since you have a CJ flag~
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Nice analysis - though I never do fantasy proleague...
y u hatin on the aces?!
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On November 25 2011 13:06 Taekwon wrote: Nice analysis - though I never do fantasy proleague...
y u hatin on the aces?! Heh I wouldnt call it hate. Its just that they dont get to actually play an ace match anymore, so they have less opportunity to make up their huge cost.
Edit @ Gao Xi: Ye I never noticed that before I actually wrote it down just now either. ^_^
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Nice analysis :o
I am hoping too that Sea won't be affected mentally. But on the bright side, he has way better practice partners than last year.
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10387 Posts
Don't choose Roro for your anti
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This makes me wonder about picking Fantasy as my top investment...
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United States7639 Posts
I don't think that's a completely fair assessment of Stork T___T I know his last two rounds were unimpressive (12-12), but you tore him down a lot more than you did Fantasy, who did worse (8-11). They performed pretty much the same in R1&2 as well (fantasy 12-8, Stork 12-7).
To be honest, I'm not really sure what I'm trying to argue here anymore. I suppose that they're both equally unappealing buys lol. I guess I just find it mind-boggling that people think fantasy is a actually good 8 point investment when he barely made 50% over the season.
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On November 25 2011 13:15 Kiett wrote: I don't think that's a completely fair assessment of Stork T___T I know his last two rounds were unimpressive (12-12), but you tore him down a lot more than you did Fantasy, who did worse (8-11). They performed pretty much the same in R1&2 as well (fantasy 12-8, Stork 12-7).
To be honest, I'm not really sure what I'm trying to argue here anymore. I suppose that they're both equally unappealing buys lol. I guess I just find it mind-boggling that people think fantasy is a actually good 8 point investment when he barely made 50% over the season. Yeah you're probably right. Part of it is me not being able to repeat what I just said about Fantasy seconds earlier. So I had to take a bit of a different approach. T_T
But at least we agree on the gist of it. : )
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Stork can never be unappealing. Not to a true fan like me. I am slightly worried about his age (one of the oldest active players not on ACE) but he's always had his ups and downs and recovered. I see no reason he won't rock this SPL.
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You’ll note that you lose points if your player loses. If Movie starts to lose a lot, he simply won’t get played any more and you’ll be just fine. : )
That's not really true. You get +1 for lineup appearance and -1 for losing, hence it's the same as not being in the lineup at all.
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Ah good write up. I just realised I probably do the same thing as you, pouring endlessly over the stats of all the players. Part of me is selfish and would never want to do a close analysis as I don't want to lose an edge of over players. I don't even post my team for that reason.
I don't think any of the 10 pointers are worth it this year. I remember they were 8-10 points back 5 or 6 rounds of fpl ago, and that was when there were ace matches to bolster their wins. True, Bisu did insanely good last season but even so, there are so many really good 6 pointers. For example, Light or Soulkey (or any other 6 pointer you want to choose) + Best (a total steal at 4 points) is probably going to net you more wins than a single titan
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The fact there is no ace match makes TBLS much less valuable. Before, it could be worth spending twice as many points of them because there were extra point for game played, extra points for ace win. This is clearly not the case anymore. At best they'll get a 80% winrate, while most 5 or 6 points players will achieve a 60% winrate.
They may only be worth if they can get a huge win streak and earn a streak bonus, but that really depends on the schedule and is more luck based. I wouldn't take any of TBLS/Fantasy/ZerO.
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Jaedong is definitely the worst pick out of TLS, not because I doubt the Tyrant's abilities but because his team needs him the least. Even though KT will be deeper this year with the addition of Mind they will still need Flash in almost every single match. Team 8 and to a lesser extent SKT1 can still pull off 3-0's and 3-1's without their respective ace, thus increasing the chances of Jaedong and Bisu not even being played.
I'd exercise caution with CJ players. Their team is almost too deep. With their lineup being made up of matchup specialists rather than well-rounded players there will be very little consistency in who gets sent out.
If Flash, Bisu, and Jaedong are the three legendary birds, Light has to be Gengar. Firstly, he’s invisible of course.
Bwahahaha Light jokes just never get old.
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@ Endy: I actually couldnt possibly agree more. Wondering how many people are gonna fall for the ace player trap.
@ Red4ce I can't entirely agree about the CJ thing. What you said is certainly true for the Protoss trio, but Hydra and Leta are pretty damn good all around. And if Effort looks anything like he used to, I'd say the same of him. But I do think you're kinda right, a lot of the players are snipers for sure (dammit Skyhigh).
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While its true CJ has some snipers, like Bibbit said, CJ has some players that are good all around. As long as the staff/coaches are being proactive with their lineup picks with the addition of offensive weapons to snipe any matchup + good players all around (Hydra, Leta, EffOrt, Movie) CJ will surely be a very tough opponent. Also if sKyHigh unslumps that will boost the strength of CJ entirely, because gives CJ another terran option and a very powerful vT sniper.
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Neo.G_Soulkey - 6 - This is one of those guys that people really started noticing in this last year. And for good reason. He served as the perfect accomplice for Zero, and later joined also by Light, to lead Woongjin to a remarkable playoff run that took the eventual champs to their limits. Although he didn’t have [i]a ton of wins against the top dogs, he did manage to take games off Stork, Fantasy, Sea, Jaedong, Leta, and Jangbi. Altogether, he went 28-15. Interestingly, in just one year of Proleague, he managed to hit Bogus four times, winning three of those encounters. As much as Soulkey is a great player, it seems like there are just so many other 6-pointers who could serve you better (just please for the love of christ dont get Jaehoon or Killer as a replacement T_T).
Admittedly I am a fan but....I don't see many players on there that would serve one better.
First off, SK is mid 60% in both ZvP/ZvZ. There are a couple people who are snipers for a MU (H2, Light) that have better stats in a single MU than SK is in both. Even Leta, the second best option statistically, is weaker in his two strongest MU (60% and 61%). Like everyone else in the list of 6 point players they are either unproven in a MU (see Light TvP, Leta TvP (comparatively), Horang2 PvZ) or players who are generally decent/unproven (Jaehoon, Killer, BaBy). By unproven I mean they haven't had sustained seasons of really solid play.
SK's "slacker MU" is statistically ZvT. However, for those that have watched him SK is actually quite stong ZvT. Versus mech he is absolutely fantastic; certainly a top 3 zerg when it comes to playing against a meching terran. Moreover he has fantastic defense whether its pre lurker, pre defiler, or general drop/lategame defense (see BaBy v Soulkey Set3). Two things have held him back from winning more; one is that he just hasn't quite seemed to have perfected the art of closing out games sometimes playing hesitantly or over-defensively and the second is he has just played darn good opponents. Well over half of his last 40 games are against Flash, Fantasy, Light, Sea, Leta, BaBy, and Bogus. All of whom hover near or above 60% in TvZ. When your holding down a 50% win-rate against players of this caliber your doing something right.
Bottom line: SK is really good. 63-64% in two match-ups and 50% against top A/S class players in TvZ.
MTA: TLPD really screwed up right now. Lots of players have the vast majority of their matches missing.
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On November 25 2011 16:26 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +Neo.G_Soulkey - 6 - This is one of those guys that people really started noticing in this last year. And for good reason. He served as the perfect accomplice for Zero, and later joined also by Light, to lead Woongjin to a remarkable playoff run that took the eventual champs to their limits. Although he didn’t have [i]a ton of wins against the top dogs, he did manage to take games off Stork, Fantasy, Sea, Jaedong, Leta, and Jangbi. Altogether, he went 28-15. Interestingly, in just one year of Proleague, he managed to hit Bogus four times, winning three of those encounters. As much as Soulkey is a great player, it seems like there are just so many other 6-pointers who could serve you better (just please for the love of christ dont get Jaehoon or Killer as a replacement T_T). Admittedly I am a fan but....I don't see many players on their that would serve one better. First off, SK is mid 60% in both ZvP/ZvZ. There are a couple people who are snipers for a MU (H2, Light) that have better stats in a single MU than SK is in both. Even Leta, the second best option statistically, is weaker in his two strongest MU (60% and 61%). Like everyone else in the list of 6 point players they are either unproven in a MU (see Light TvP, Leta TvP (comparatively), Horang2 PvZ) or players who are generally decent/unproven (Jaehoon, Killer, BaBy). By unproven I mean they haven't had sustained seasons of really solid play. SK's "slacker MU" is statistically ZvT. However, for those that have watched him SK is actually quite stong ZvT. Versus mech he is absolutely fantastic; certainly a top 3 zerg when it comes to playing against a meching terran. Moreover he has fantastic defense whether its pre lurker, pre defiler, or general drop/lategame defense (see BaBy v Soulkey Set3). Two things have held him back from winning more; one is that he just hasn't quite seemed to have perfected the art of closing out games sometimes playing hesitantly or over-defensively and the second is he has just played darn good opponents. Well over half of his last 40 games are against Flash, Fantasy, Light, Sea, Leta, BaBy, and Bogus. All of whom hover near or above 60% in TvZ. When your holding down a 50% win-rate against players of this caliber your doing something right. Bottom line: SK is really good. 63-64% in two match-ups and 50% against top A/S class players in TvZ. Yeah I'm really inclined to agree. He went 18-6 after winners league. That is SO much better than most of the other 6 pointers. And his opponents weren't easy either. Plus he's on Stars, which only otherwise has Zero and Light as strong players. So he'll likely be fielded almost every single match. Great buy at 6 I think.
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God dammit, I was almost done tinkering with my lineup and now you've got me working on it again T.T It's really difficult to predict who's going to play, I feel any CJ player besides Hydra is a little risky simply because of their depth. Snow/movie/horang2 are going to be sharing spots. If hero[join] and Where get games alongside effort it will hurt even more. Leta feels a little risky as captain but he'll probably play the same as always.
Having trouble deciding on a team too, woonjin seem like they have great depth and value at 3 pts. STX are terrible and barely worth 1, ACE at 0 seems the better bet. Speaking of ACE Kal and Great should be good value and will get alot of game time. It seems that players always perform well after their move to ace, at least for a while. Just look at ggaemo and fbh. Kal is too good not to earn 4 pts worth of value. Probably the best pickup this time around alongside the 6 p'ters Leta/Light/Soulkey if one of them catches fire.
Jaehoon/baby/killer... i'm sure one's going to have a great season, just not willing to gamble on any of them. One of them will make a killer anti.
I agree the top 3 are too expensive considering the lack of ace matches. Some weeks they might not even play considering the depth of their teams. At best you might recoup equal value on them which doesnt make it a great investment.
Anti-team wise.... one of the SKT1 zergs will be great, just gotta pick between S2, Soo and Hyuk. I'm guessing Hyuk. Snow/Movie will be a good high pointer pick, I can only see one of them doing well, if that. A Samsung zerg/terran could also be a safe anti pick, they just have too much depth to get regular playing time.
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On November 25 2011 14:45 endy wrote: The fact there is no ace match makes TBLS much less valuable. Before, it could be worth spending twice as many points of them because there were extra point for game played, extra points for ace win. This is clearly not the case anymore. At best they'll get a 80% winrate, while most 5 or 6 points players will achieve a 60% winrate.
They may only be worth if they can get a huge win streak and earn a streak bonus, but that really depends on the schedule and is more luck based. I wouldn't take any of TBLS/Fantasy/ZerO.
I think so as well. At first i picked Bisu, but later i realized there are no Aces, and Winners League is still not announced (correct me if i am wrong). Was a hard choice but i had to replace Bisu and chose Leta / Killer instead.
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