Yes! I'm on time for the signups for once! (right?)
Newbie Mini Mafia II
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gonzaw
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Yes! I'm on time for the signups for once! (right?) | ||
gonzaw
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On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable. With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! This is my first game here, I think I said so before. I've played several games on UG though. I think there are two players from Election Mafia (one game I observed quite recently), Sheth and Jitsu I believe. I would suggest reread that game so we can know these guy's meta and stuff. Also I'd like to know if someone else played another game here, so we can reread those games too. On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Unless we are at MYLO, a miss-lynch gives you a lot of info. It gives you info on the players that interacted with that guy or voted for said guy. Obviously it gives you info of that guy (since he flipped). If you no-lynch, you basicly forfeit the day and let scum take the initiative at night. I think no-lynching should only be used if everybody derps a lot and the lynch of any player would give us no info whatsoever. | ||
gonzaw
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On January 04 2012 11:31 Probulous wrote: By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options. If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR | ||
gonzaw
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On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote: Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL? You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why? Also, I'm fairly good with statistics/probabilities myself (just ask Jackal58), and I use them fairly in mafia games. If the situation arises, it can be very helpful, as long as everything in the game is RNGed. I assume this setup is RNGed, right? On January 04 2012 11:50 Probulous wrote: Fair enough but this comes down to WIFOM. I still think we should cross this bridge when we get to it. We gain nothing from these discussions right now. I want to hear from Sheth, where you at bro? Well, to be honest, I think we should get all the WIFOM-inducing things out of the way as soon as possible. That way other players will know when something is WIFOM or not (for instance if I hadn't said what I said, and the situation rose, some townies could think that it isn't in fact WIFOM and it's fact, and scum could take advantage of this). Plus, it gets some discussion going, and you can see how other players react to it (or don't react at all). On January 04 2012 11:43 Probulous wrote: I am confused I thought MYLO meant mislynch and lose. If that is the case, a miss-lynch is the end of the game I guess that gives you a lot of information but certainly doesn't help town. Let me be clear, we are trying to lynch scum today and every day. That is our goal however lofty it may be. If we cannot get agreement then we can discuss a no-lynch. All I was stating is that a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch, but lets avoid this alltogether and lynch scum. That's the point, if we are at MYLO then misslynching is not better than no-lynching (it loses us the game). But at D1, and any other time it's better. Of course barring exceptional situations and stuff. On January 04 2012 12:06 Probulous wrote: That is a good point Jitsu. As I have stated, I am aiming for a mafia lynch. Only if I believe that we are headed for a miss-lynch will I advocate a no-lynch. Again, where are the other US guys? Sheth, Gretorp? You're asking for a vote. The day is 48 horus long, right? I would suggest pressure voting lurkers/inactives after 24 hours or so are past. Although I don't know if you guys do that here or not. | ||
gonzaw
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On January 04 2012 12:23 CookieMaker wrote: We get more information because SOMEONE still gets scum-killed. The hypothetical you in this conversation gets no additional information because they already knew who the town is. @Gonz I am going on the assumption that any inactives will be talking in a hurry before the 24hour mark is up. I'm very interested to see who pipe's up just before the noose gets tied What I gathered from the games I played is, there are always inactive players, and even if you threaten to pressure vote them, or actually pressure vote them, they remain inactive for a time. At least it will guarantee they will not remain inactive the whole day, since if they do they get lynched. Also, if an "inactive" player "talks in a hurry before the 24hour mark is up", why would he do that? That seems like a lurking scum not wanting any pressure on him whatsoever, and rushing in to not being voted, so even that gives us info. | ||
gonzaw
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On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote: Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. Interesting. If you are town, I really hope you are right about you being "good at mindgames". If you are scum I really hope you aren't. | ||
gonzaw
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Damn, something off topic though. How do you change the avatar thingy? I've seen some people change it to horses and stuff, but I get stuck with the starcraft one and don't know how to change it. | ||
gonzaw
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I doubt scum would want to start town discussion as badly as him at this point. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote: I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 13:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, more then one. But the one that worries me the most. You better come here soon and explain that. I hate it when some players just post "I'll give my thoughts in a second" and never show up, whether town or scum. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote: haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) Again, this is what I'm talking about. Also, your "joke" doesn't help us at all. If you are town, you just confused the hell out of every one of us, you appeared scummy as hell and we will waste time and effort analyzing this "joke" of yours. If you are scum, then you can just use it as a justification for making a super-scummy-OMGUS first post and get away with it. Or you can use it to confuse town. Doesn't help us at all. And with this "I will analyze more" but not doing anything makes me think you are the 2nd. For now I'll pressure vote Xeris to come here and post his thoughts, but if we have nothing to go on by the time the day ends I'll vote for you ##Vote: Xeris + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote: Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. Is it scummy enough for you to vote him? + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:13 CookieMaker wrote: Incorrect: We get more information, especially if we can get the participation level up a little bit. There's also going to be more posts from all players(god hopefully) before the day is through. Clearly the pool of prime lynch candidates is shallow at the moment. I will be voting for the player with the lowest vote total until I see a better option. I don't like how you are advocating the "no-lynch" here. You also say you will vote for "the player with the lowest vote total". Why would you do that? Are you trying to avoid voting anyone so no suspicions fall on you? The whole "no-lynch" discussions could be a way to justify yourself into doing this and just not having to deal with any votes or pressures whatsoever and have a free pass throughout the game. Also, I'd like to see your thoughts on Gretorp. | ||
gonzaw
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Shit, some people posted before I finished making my post. I'll deal with that in a moment | ||
gonzaw
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On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Hmm, I don't know if you can really make the "he hasn't come up with new opinions" and such argument on Day 1 of a newbie game where most of us haven't played a single game here yet. If this was a game with more experienced players, or at least ones that played here more than one game (like you, Jitsu, and stuff) then it would hold I think. Also, what do you think about Gretorp? + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:22 Xeris wrote: I can guarantee you guys that I am not mafia -- I'm a townie. Anyone who has played mafia with me knows how terrible I am at being a mafia. I am a really good townie though, so you should definitely keep me in the game! I don't vote in this thread right?? When are the votes due (i.e. what actual time)? ??? Why would you need to say that as your first post? If you are "a really good townie", then why did you feel the need to make this post if you were one? Also, I don't think editing posts is allowed here. Also, what are your thoughts on the game so far? (I'll keep my vote on you for now until you do) + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote: I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious . @Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts? Again, you said you are suspicious of him and you think he's scummy. But you didn't vote for him yet. Is there a reason for it? Are you just "waiting" to see what he does or something? Also I'd like to see Probulous (sp?) thoughts so far too. Also, just in case, what timezones are you guys in? That way we know when each of us is active and so we don't do stupid stuff like saying someone is lurking when they are sleeping or something. I live on -2 GMT (so it's almost 6 pm here). | ||
gonzaw
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On January 05 2012 04:42 Xeris wrote: I don't favor randomly lynching people in the first night -- unless there is some actual suspicion. Statistically, maybe it's better to random lynch, but I feel like the chances you might randomly kill a cop // medic make it not worth it. I prefer using the first day to try to get reads on people, then wait until Day 2 to use the information gained in Day 1, based on who ends up dying / etc to make a more reasoned/educated prediction about who might be mafia. Randomly lynching is a really stupid idea. Nobody mentioned RL yet, why did you? Anyways, just so we get the RNG lynch our of the way, this is what I think of it (feel free to ignore it if you want though, it doesn't really add anything new to the discussion): I think the point of random lynch is, first, to have EVERYBODY ABSOLUTELY AGREE to lynch whoever is chosen. Then, we somehow randomly choose someone (we can make everybody RNG someone, and the one that comes up the most is chosen). Although scum will surely choose themselves, and will surely not choose a fellow scum member for the lynch, so this gives us info too. Then, we decide to lynch the guy. If nobody objects and completely agrees, then we can be sure that player is town (scum would flip their shit if their team member is RLed on Day 1). If somebody objects, then maybe he's scum (and his scumbuddies are objecting), or it's just a townie changing his mind. In any case, you don't lynch anybody, you use it as a ruse to get information and get confirmed townies and stuff. The gist of it is not mentioning this to anyone though. Anyways, I don't know if this can work or not, so maybe in Post-Game (or now if you want) we can discuss it more thoroughly. | ||
gonzaw
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Shit nevermind, I just saw that your nationality is displayed next to your username, so no need for the timezone stuff >_> Although if people say at which GMT time zone they live in, it would be better though (USA has a lot of time zones for instance). | ||
gonzaw
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On January 05 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote: RNG is a bad idea. This is a game about limited information. No real information is gleaned from RNG a lynch. What happens if you nail a mafia member? Nice! What happens if you nail a townie. You just learn that that individual player was green. Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned. I'd still like to hear from CookieMaker and AnxiousHippo. For one who posted with a lot early activity, and the other who preached it, they surely have dropped off the radar. Yes, that's the point. You ACT like if you were going to make a lynch based on RNG, but in fact you don't. It's used to get info. If the guy chosen by the RNG is scum, I'm sure scum members will freak out. If the guy is townie, I'm sure nobody will freak out (except that guy obviously). After the guy to lynch is decided, and everybody voices their opinions, you just say "lol jk I wont' random lynch him" and just play normally. Of course I think this may be best suited for a Mayor for instance, since I think those choose the lynch on Day 1, or some similar role (it would be kind of impossible to pull this off in a normal setup). | ||
gonzaw
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+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 05:37 CatsnHats wrote: @gonzaw I haven't voted for Gretorp because I thought we weren't supposed to vote until near the end of D1. Throwing a vote out with so many hours left to use for reads isn't very smart. Plus I was waiting for his response, as well as the first posts of Xeris and the return of Blurry, who seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth. Votes can also be used for pressure, and to see the reactions of other players (and the one you voted obviously). Specially on Day 1. Although if you are certain the guy is scum, then vote for him with all your courage and try to convince other people of so. Although okay then, that's fine.I expect you to make some "reads" on Gretorp/Xeris/etc soon though. Also, yeah Blurry hasn't come here yet. He's from Switzerland though? What time is it there? Hell, this is why I wanted the whole timezone thing (maybe the timezones should be put next to each player's username just like the Nationality, although again maybe that's for Post-Game or another time). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 05:34 Xeris wrote: If there are legitimate concerns about someone on the first day, sure, I'd probably participate in a lynch. But I don't really see how you can determine that on the first day when you have basically NO information to go off. Further, because this is online mafia, you can't even read people the same way... I don't see how you can possibly get a good enough ready on someone in the first day, before any action has happened, enough to confidently lynch someone. Are you seriously telling me there's nothing to go on by now? Also you haven't responded to my posts, nor reacted to me voting you, you are basicly ignoring me. | ||
gonzaw
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On January 05 2012 05:52 Tunkeg wrote: @gonzaw I belive Blurry is on CET time just as I am, which no is 21:52. So thats KST -8 (KST is displayed up in your right corner)- So KST is how much in GMT? .. Wait nevermind, apparently is 1 hour behind me, so it must be KST= -3 GMT Anyways, that means Blurry wasn't asleep this whole time. Well, I guess he'll explain why he's inactive once he comes here. On January 05 2012 05:58 Jitsu wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 05:37 gonzaw wrote: Yes, that's the point. You ACT like if you were going to make a lynch based on RNG, but in fact you don't. It's used to get info. If the guy chosen by the RNG is scum, I'm sure scum members will freak out. If the guy is townie, I'm sure nobody will freak out (except that guy obviously). After the guy to lynch is decided, and everybody voices their opinions, you just say "lol jk I wont' random lynch him" and just play normally. Of course I think this may be best suited for a Mayor for instance, since I think those choose the lynch on Day 1, or some similar role (it would be kind of impossible to pull this off in a normal setup). RE: Gonzaw/RNG: I understand the idea of it, but in a newbie game, I think you are thinking to hard into it. Also, especially now, I think it would be too hard to effectively play that way, simply because scum now know that if one of them RNG's, that guy is dead weight and will probably be killed regardless. Alternatively, RNG'ing a blue might force a reveal, which might be equally as bad. I like the idea a little. I like backing up lynches with logically posts a lot. We have two days from the beginning of Day 1 to analyze enough posts to find something to go one. I said this RNG lynch discussion I was making had nothing to do with this game in particular, it was just a general thought on how to "Implement" RNG lynch in other games. I would only implement that in a game with a Mayor or some role that decides a lynch (so it can be done more smoothly), and only if there is absolutely no leads for a lynch. Basicly, I would want that as an alternative to no-lynch (if it were the case), since if you want to no-lynch because you have no information, faking a random lynch will give you the information you don't have (and hopefully will make you change your mind and actually have a lynch on Day 1). | ||
gonzaw
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On January 05 2012 06:25 Jitsu wrote: RE: Gonzaw/RNG: Ahhhh, I see what you are talking about. Well, let's focus on this game, than, eh? Gonzaw, give me you're opinion on three people: Myself (Jitsu), Cookie, and Cephiro. Hmm, for one, I agree with most of your posts. I agree with your points about having a lynch on Day 1. I agree with you that Cookie is acting strange. The only things he posted where the 50/50 chance of there being a DT thing, and him advocating no-lynch. Plus what I already stated about him, that he said he just wanted to vote the player with less votes, effectively ridding him of any responsability for the lynch. However, you only discussed those things and this whole RNG thing, and I'm not that content with that. You also pressured AnxiousHippo, and then you never came back to that. At the very least, you could have pressured vote him, so you know he will have to respond to you some time in the future. I'd like your response to why you didn't continue to pressure AnxiousHippo. Also I'd like you to contribute more regarding other players, like Liquidseth (sp?), Gretorp, Catshats, etc. Speaking of which, it might be a good time to actually pressure AnxiousHippo too. Regarding Cephiro: I think he's one of the 2 players contributing more here, with the other one being Probulous (although he's been fairly inactive for some hours, I'll just assume it's the time zone thing). I like his enthusiasm and activity, that seems fairly pro-town, but I don't like that he's "trusting" a lot of people and having too many "town reads" for the moment, and basicly no scum reads. I'm waiting for his response to my post too. | ||
gonzaw
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Also, it's 'your opinion' not'you're opinion' > . ..lol jk | ||
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On January 05 2012 06:54 Jitsu wrote: RE: Hippo Pressure I was giving him the benefit of the doubt when it came to time zones, seeing as how it's just becoming 7AM where he lives in Australia. If it's painfully obvious that he's blatantly ignoring my posts, than the heat comes on. I pressed him twice, third time is the charm. A lot of people pretend to be aggressive when they just make bullshit posts. I don't believe i'm one of them. RE: Cookie I see. I agree mostly with the thoughts on Cookie. Strange indeed. @Cephiro, what are your thoughts on CookieMaker? Ehmm Jitsu, when I said I wanted your thoughts on Liquid/Gretorp/Cats/etc I meant it lol. But really, what are your thoughts on these players? | ||
gonzaw
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On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMaker You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also Probulous, something I want to clear: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote: Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time). Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely I still stand by what I said. Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there? Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved? For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before. If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked. It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later. Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but + Show Spoiler + Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM? Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. | ||
gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
What? Didn't I quote and respond to Blurry? Did I delete that response? lol wut? I'll get to it again (if I remember the points I made) | ||
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