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| MidnightGladius China. January 29 2012 13:19. Posts 856 | Profile Blog # |
Since I haven't been able to follow the thread over the past 24 hours or so (top of page 15), I'm going to be reading through the past 3 pages and posting some thoughts as I go. At the end, I'll conclude with my updated reads.
Simberto, I like your theory, and I'm going to keep an eye open to what those four say in response. Their voting pattern does seem conspicuous, and from their posts I also get the feeling that they're trying not to move too openly as a bloc when in fact their votes heavily suggest it.
On January 28 2012 12:45 Adam4167 wrote:
I'm more inclined to think MidnightGladius is scum over CosmosXAM. This is WIFOM but it still generally applies, why would mafia highlight their own teammates inconsistencies?
MidnightGladius' pressure vote that stuck is far more suspicious to me.
What began as a pressure vote persisted, because FakePromise's play was so shady and unhelpful that I remained suspicious of him until he flipped as an innocent. While I do regret missing a mafia lynch, I would not hesitate to lynch a player in a similar position in a different game.
balt11t's filter has grown kind of disgusting. He still has not posted anything of value, and when prompted by Bromancipate, he just reiterated his previous excuses more extravagantly, including a promise that his contributions will "exponentially rise." That's all well and good, but the only player that he's even mentioned has been FakePromise. Considering that he has "been able to watch the game develop, just not post," why are the few posts that he makes so empty of content?
I'm getting a pretty strong town read from Adam4167. Not only because his predecessor was inactive (It seems that people with more supposedly involved roles would want to avoid being modkilled), but he consistently highlights errors in other players' reasoning, argues against confirmation bias from slOosh against zarepath, and has been rigorous in his activity overall. That said, I think that his view of zarepath might be rather misguided.
The case that DoYouHas posted on zarepath is rather convincing. I was suspicious of him from the start for his plan, but his actions afterwards reinforce my first impression. He didn't immediately back down from his plan, but rather waited until a large enough group of players had moved against FakePromise first. This segues neatly into DoYouHas' narrative. It let him back down gracefully and provided an easy mis-lynch in FakePromise. I wonder, though, what would have happened if he hadn't foolishly posted in support of the 30% lynch.
=========================================================================================
In summary, I'm getting scum reads on ballt11t and zarepath. Among them, I feel more strongly against zarepath, whom I will be voting against now. balt11t needs to start making posts, though, or I see no reason to keep him around much longer.
I agree with slOosh that it makes little sense for mafia to waste a shot to try and confirm DoYouHas, as they would be far closer to winning this game with an additional innocent dead (another mislynch and it's good game, as compared to giving us at least two more chances, with each subsequent lynch having better odds and more information available). This could be WIFOM, but when one option is just so much better, the mafia don't have as much to gain by choosing the alternative option. Thus, my innocent reads are on DoYouHas and Adam4167.
##Vote: zarepath |
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| DoYouHas United States. January 29 2012 13:30. Posts 682 | Profile # |
On January 29 2012 08:57 Adam4167 wrote:SlOosh, you are not being objective in your analysis. You start with your conclusion, that zarepath is scum and then work the details in around it to make it all fit. You even state you’re doing it here:
Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 08:01 slOosh wrote:
Here's an observation of day 1, with a focus on slOosh(me), DoYouHas and Zarepath. I will ignore other stuff.
Analysing night actions is an exercise in WIFOM. The only thing that can be taken from them is that they attempted to shoot at someone who was probably town. In this scenario we don’t even know for sure that that is the case, as no one died. I sincerely doubt both SacredSystem and zarepath are mafia. I find SacredSystem almost surely to be mafia, whereas I see things in zarepaths filter that I wouldn't expect from a scum player. I feel we should lynch the guy who has been evasive, non-contributal and overly defensive (ie SacredSystem).
You are quite right that trying to do in depth analysis of night action motivations is an exercise in WIFOM. I have bolded your own mistake. It is wrong to think that all of an active player's posts are going to fit neatly into a box labeled scum. Especially with a player who has been as inconsistent as zarepath.
Let me make a couple points on the SacredSystem vs zarepath debate. SacredSystem has at the very least been consistent. He is either very aggressive or very defensive. (Yes, I realize that this is a contradiction with 1 part of his first post, but it is silly to condemn people for the generalized statements we all made in our first posts after day1.) He has stuck to his guns that his initial read on FakePromise was all he needed to justify lynching him. He has even become predictable in his overreaction OMGUS defenses. In fact the only thing, so far as I can tell, that has changed his style of posting was my stating that I was giving him the benefit of the doubt. This consistent style, even in the face of being voted against, is just another reason I am starting to lean town for sacred. The counterpoint to this is zarepath. He has been all over the place with his style of posting. I have already pointed out a ton of inconsistencies in his play this game.
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| DoYouHas United States. January 29 2012 13:50. Posts 682 | Profile # |
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 29 2012 12:46 zarepath wrote:
I don't have a lot of time tonight (or much of tomorrow) to address everything individually, but one of the biggest scum reads people are making on me is my plea to be DT'd.
It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated. The only mislynch I could be 100% sure of is a lynch against myself. If I'm about to be voted off, of course I request that someone just wait and confirm I'm mafia before lynching me. I even noted that it would be a waste of an investigation, except that nobody seemed to believe me otherwise. It's a tool that could establish my innocence and save the town from a mislynch; it can also ascertain a mafia player, but as the guy up for vote, I'm going to selfishly suggest the one that keeps me in the game.
People are also WIFOMing that that request somehow suggests that I'm a Godfather, trying to set up a wasted investigation. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather.
Oh, and also this: no, I'm not a godfather, and not mafia, either.
I'll do a better case-by-case response tomorrow afternoon/evening -- I am actually busier on weekends than during weekdays. Meanwhile I suggest an interrogation of anyone who hasn't contributed post-Night-1, like sloosh did last night. This is another opportunity for people to fly below the radar, and considering the rest of my defense isn't coming until tomorrow evening, it'll give us another data-font.
"It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated." Actually it is absolutely right to say that a townie who thought it through would never ask to be rolechecked. The very possibility that a godfather is in the game means that an asked for rolecheck does not confirm innocence. It's a tool that would have failed to establish anything other than a wasted rolecheck.
As for my suggestions that you are the godfather, they are not WIFOM. I based these comments on your posting, not on speculation about the setup. Even if we are in a setup with no godfather, it does not change that you have acted as I think a godfather would.
Yet another defensive post with falsehoods. My case only grows stronger. |
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| slOosh January 29 2012 16:38. Posts 1946 | Profile # |
On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote:
As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia.
Then could I ask you to switch your vote onto Zarepath? We already have 5 on Zarepath and only 2 on Sacred, and we absolutely want to avoid splitting votes between two mafia. |
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| zelblade Singapore. January 29 2012 17:28. Posts 873 | Profile # |
On January 29 2012 16:38 slOosh wrote:
Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote:
As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia.
Then could I ask you to switch your vote onto Zarepath? We already have 5 on Zarepath and only 2 on Sacred, and we absolutely want to avoid splitting votes between two mafia.
Since it seems like Sacred isnt going to get lynched today I will change my vote for now i guess.
##Unvote: SacredSystem
##Vote: Zarepath |
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| DoYouHas United States. January 30 2012 01:24. Posts 682 | Profile # |
| Balt11t and Bromancipate have disappeared again. I would also like to be reading more from CosmosXAM. |
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| Simberto Germany. January 30 2012 02:04. Posts 2787 | Profile Blog # |
I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. |
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| dreamflower United States. January 30 2012 02:11. Posts 312 | Profile Blog # |
Voting Count Update
SacredSystem - 2
Adam4167
zelblade
zarepath
zelblade - 1
Simberto
zarepath - 6
DoYouHas
CosmosXAM
slOosh
SacredSystem
MidnightGladius
zelblade
Non-Voters - 3
Bromancipate
Chocolate
balt11t
Voting ends at 10 PM EST[local] today.
Currently, the number of votes needed to lynch is: 5 out of 9.Last edit: 2012-01-30 02:17:50 |
| | "When the gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers." -Oscar Wilde |
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| Chocolate United States. January 30 2012 02:19. Posts 1519 | Profile Blog # |
On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote:
I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes.
I'm voting for zarepath because he seems the most scummy out of everyone right now and because if we don't lynch today we'll be in a pretty bad position if mafia get a kill tonight. |
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| zelblade Singapore. January 30 2012 03:09. Posts 873 | Profile # |
On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote:
I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes.
I didnt attack SS because he was an "easy targert", but because he keeps contradicting himself, dodges many of adams questions, and his posts are also difficult to understand.
As for the coming out of lurking part, I really did have some IRL stuff come up, and I "came out of lurking" before the zarepath case appeared in the first place. Thus this point doesnt make sense and I really dont see what you mean by "stuff leading to me". |
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| zelblade Singapore. January 30 2012 03:21. Posts 873 | Profile # |
Another thing - going to sleep now. Will also have something on tomorrow, so i might be away from the thread for a period of time. Probably will wake up in time to go through the thread before leaving though.
Saying this so that I dont get called out for "lurking" again. |
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| Bromancipate Oman. January 30 2012 03:45. Posts 52 | Profile # |
You guys are unreal with this lurker thing. Go ahead and read my post from yesterday. There is a reason I am playing a hydra - because I don't have enough time myself to play by myself. If I wasn't asked to play a Hydra, I wouldn't be playing at all. Beyond that, I haven't heard from Probu since the game started. Damn.
Adam has jumped up to my second most town read at the moment. I've watched him play in other games, such as Student Mafia, and it seems very similar to his play then, with better reads.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 30 2012 03:09 zelblade wrote:
Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote:
I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes.
I didnt attack SS because he was an "easy targert", but because he keeps contradicting himself, dodges many of adams questions, and his posts are also difficult to understand. As for the coming out of lurking part, I really did have some IRL stuff come up, and I "came out of lurking" before the zarepath case appeared in the first place. Thus this point doesnt make sense and I really dont see what you mean by "stuff leading to me".
Does this sound like a mafia bus to anyone else? I'm curious to how you shed the suspicion that was onto you already into the second day of the game when there was a good majority of people starting to want to hang you. Why were you so reluctant to switch to Zarepath until you realized that there was no way he was going to get out of being killed? Just strikes me as odd since you seem to have absolutly no opinions on the current game at all.
He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town.
This really sounds like Chainsaw Defense to me, or, at least, the beginning of it. You're so reluctance to vote for Zarepath, until slOosh tells you directly to do it.
On January 29 2012 13:50 DoYouHas wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On January 29 2012 12:46 zarepath wrote:
I don't have a lot of time tonight (or much of tomorrow) to address everything individually, but one of the biggest scum reads people are making on me is my plea to be DT'd.
It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated. The only mislynch I could be 100% sure of is a lynch against myself. If I'm about to be voted off, of course I request that someone just wait and confirm I'm mafia before lynching me. I even noted that it would be a waste of an investigation, except that nobody seemed to believe me otherwise. It's a tool that could establish my innocence and save the town from a mislynch; it can also ascertain a mafia player, but as the guy up for vote, I'm going to selfishly suggest the one that keeps me in the game.
People are also WIFOMing that that request somehow suggests that I'm a Godfather, trying to set up a wasted investigation. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather.
Oh, and also this: no, I'm not a godfather, and not mafia, either.
I'll do a better case-by-case response tomorrow afternoon/evening -- I am actually busier on weekends than during weekdays. Meanwhile I suggest an interrogation of anyone who hasn't contributed post-Night-1, like sloosh did last night. This is another opportunity for people to fly below the radar, and considering the rest of my defense isn't coming until tomorrow evening, it'll give us another data-font.
"It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated." Actually it is absolutely right to say that a townie who thought it through would never ask to be rolechecked. The very possibility that a godfather is in the game means that an asked for rolecheck does not confirm innocence. It's a tool that would have failed to establish anything other than a wasted rolecheck. As for my suggestions that you are the godfather, they are not WIFOM. I based these comments on your posting, not on speculation about the setup. Even if we are in a setup with no godfather, it does not change that you have acted as I think a godfather would. Yet another defensive post with falsehoods. My case only grows stronger.
I like what you have to say, DoYou, and you make a good point here. Although, I think there is something else to draw from this. Townie play lends itself to being as transparent as possible to everyone else. Seeming to have hidden agenda's and making everyone have trouble actually reading you're posts are two signs to me that someone isn't a townie player.
So, this is the question I asked myself. Why would I want the Detective to waste his nightly check on a Town player? He gets a Townie check, which might also end up being the Godfather. Always a possibility. But beyond that, it also prevents the DT from finding a scum-player that night, because i'm asking the DT to confirm my role as a Townie. There really isn't any reason to do that. Good town play proves you're town in the thread. You don't need to verify with the DT.
However, from a mafia standpoint, it does a number of things. Firstly, since Zarepath was already starting to drown, he could have thrown it out to prevent his other scumbuddies from being detected. Secondly, he could be the Godfather, and was trying to pull in the DT check to waste it, and "confirm" himself as a Townie. However, I think the most important thing to look at is the fact he asked the DT to do it How would the DT reveal his information to the thread? Unless he breadcrumbed and died, he would need to reveal himself, which only benefits one faction so early...the Mafia.
Looking back on it with all the additional information that popped up, his desire to want to get checked keeps poking me in the arm. It's like putting a puzzle together and missing just two pieces...and BAM, there they are! They fell under the table!
##vote Zarepath
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| DoYouHas United States. January 30 2012 06:41. Posts 682 | Profile # |
On January 30 2012 03:45 Bromancipate wrote:
However, I think the most important thing to look at is the fact he asked the DT to do it How would the DT reveal his information to the thread? Unless he breadcrumbed and died, he would need to reveal himself, which only benefits one faction so early...the Mafia.
##vote Zarepath
Thank you for pointing out this facet of the analysis that I overlooked. As a reminder, please get your vote into the voting thread. |
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| Adam4167 Australia. January 30 2012 07:18. Posts 1235 | Profile # |
Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
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| Simberto Germany. January 30 2012 07:27. Posts 2787 | Profile Blog # |
At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia.
Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point.
##unvote zelblade
##vote zarepath |
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| slOosh January 30 2012 07:59. Posts 1946 | Profile # |
On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote:
Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
I think his team did abandon him.
And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis.
So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this).
If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. |
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| Adam4167 Australia. January 30 2012 08:37. Posts 1235 | Profile # |
Well, I hope you're right.
This is one time id be happy for my read to be wrong.
I have to take my PC offline for a couple of hours to re-install windows. I should be back before the lynch, but in case i am not, ill move my vote now.
##Unvote SacredSystem
##Vote zarepath |
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| Bromancipate Oman. January 30 2012 11:08. Posts 52 | Profile # |
Just so people know, I am back from a four day holiday. I was intending to check up everyday but it seems wine regions in this area don't do internet. This was always a possibility which was why I chose to use a hydra account.
My apologies to you all for making this more difficult than it had to be. I am reading the thread and will post something more concrete soon enough.
Finally my upmost apologies to Jitsu who has been a trooper about this. If you want to give our hydra crap for not posting, blame me. He has done the best he could with the time he had.
Thanks for listening.
/Probulous |
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| balt11t United States. January 30 2012 11:34. Posts 15 | Profile # |
After reading the posts that have occurred over the past 24 hours, and seeing that it seems zarepath is already dead, I too will be voting for zarepeth this day.
##Vote: zarepath
Posted from my Android device, internet being wonky, will return at 10 EST. (Please note, MidnightGladius, that I had to add one more disgusting post to my filter, but this is not an apology. I wanted to establish this BEFORE you go off on another tangent about something completely unrelated to the game.) |
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| dreamflower United States. January 30 2012 12:02. Posts 312 | Profile Blog # |
![[image loading]](http://www.theffleagues.com/football/league93336/images/Gates_of_Hell_by_ANARKYMAN.jpg) Start of Night 2
Zarepath was trapped. Encouraged by the lack of deaths the previous night, the citizens of Liquidville had almost universally turned their eyes toward him and voiced their suspicions that he was Mafia. It didn't take long for the manhunt to begin. Everywhere he went, the townspeople turned against him and started chasing after him, accusing him of being a killer and a criminal. He found himself taking refuge in alleyways behind buildings and in backyards. Running as fast as he could, he opened one, two, three, and finally four gates into people's gardens and backyards, but could never get from the angry, pitchfork-waving mob.
Finally, the justice-mad mob caught up to zarepath and killed him, spilling his bright red blood. For his terrible crimes, zarepath's soul was dragged through the four gates of hell before being sentenced to eternal damnation.
zarepath the Mafia Goon has been lynched.
Night 2 has begun! Please send your night actions to me and Qatol. Night ends in 24 hours, on Monday, Jan. 30 at 10 PM EST.
Last edit: 2012-01-30 12:46:21 |
| | "When the gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers." -Oscar Wilde |
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