Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII - Page 32

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On February 21 2012 02:40 DoYouHas wrote:


Right now I am pretty convinced that you all are going to lynch me regardless of what I say, so I'm just going to try and get all my analysis out there by the end of the day. You are holding to another mislynch, and I can't argue you off it. I've tried and tried, and I'm tired of trying. So instead I'm going to pour my brain out into the thread so you will have as much DoYouHas analysis to look back at as possible.

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On February 21 2012 03:19 ZBot wrote:
Day 2, with 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Current votes:

DoYouHas (8): slOosh, Mattchew, Janaan, gumshoe, MidnightGladius, EchelonTee, zelblade, trackd00r

MidnightGladius (1): gumshoe, -gumshoe, DoYouHas

Not voting: Alderan, rgTheSchworz, Steveling, TKHawkins

The Day deadline is at 2012-02-22 09:00:00. (That's approximately 1 day, 5:40:26 from now.)

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On February 21 2012 03:22 Steveling wrote:


Hmmm, what's wrong? I'm pretty sure I voted.

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On February 20 2012 12:10 EchelonTee wrote:


Hmm... I don't know, in L you were more vocal, and your Mason-Mayor plan was pretty flashy. In this game, with less intimidating/less people, it would be a lot easier for you to speak your mind clearly, without being all lurky and posting in a short way.

Are we allowed to discuss Mattchew's previous, on-going game, Werewolves II, since he has already died in that game, or is this against the rules?

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On February 21 2012 01:15 trackd00r wrote:
I just woke up.


I'm not expressing any thoughts you give a good reasoning behind. You should have a very good analysis to put 5 scum candidates in order to make that list. Explain why am I third at least...

Janaan, THK, what do you think about this?

Btw, night post is on tuesday, 09:00 forum time.

Regarding the DYH situation, I believe the best we can do is hold the vote to him. The only real and possibly working solution that scum can pull if DYH is red is to push other cases now. I agree with the points that Zelblade made. No one is going to jump into the spotlight and defend him.

Anyways, alderan please reply to my post. Becuase I'm switching DYH doesn't mean I'll let you off.

##Vote: DoYouHas

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On February 21 2012 04:03 Steveling wrote:
##Vote DoYouHas

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On February 21 2012 04:04 Janaan wrote:


I just woke up as well, and I need to leave for class soon. I'll post what I can in that time, I may have to cut it off short, though.

I'd really like to see exactly why Mattchew is thinking the way he is. This post gives absolutely no context for why the 5 players he mentioned were chosen for the list, and I really don't like that one bit. Until he gives a reason, it's no more than another fairly useless list of his own personal scum reads.

I do find it interesting that this post isn't directed to the town on who to lynch, but to a vig, when we have no guarantee that a vig is in the game. Is this a scumslip revealing information on the set-up? I'm not sure.

I think that's all that I can really say about that until Mattchew gives us more reasoning for his list.

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On February 21 2012 01:27 Mattchew wrote:


does anyone else find it really fucking weird that we went from 5 on ET to lynching DK in less than an hour?

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On February 21 2012 03:34 Mattchew wrote:
grey can we get an answer to this

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On February 20 2012 06:03 MidnightGladius wrote:
My next case will be on Alderan:

Alderan's behavior strikes me as strange for a few broad reasons, and there are some details that also don't fit. He is the first to nominate DimmuKlok as our lurker candidate of choice, but the fact that he actually went ahead and made a "case" - a point-by-point analysis of only three posts - is completely superfluous. PBPA is never helpful, as Alderan should know, considering that he's had two games of playing experience and has read through several others.

He soft-defends gumshoe, claiming that his play is too elaborate to be scum, and that the town's attention on him is "unnecessary." In addition, he says to look at those pressuring gumshoe (Steve and I), but he never follows through on that.

Then, after the lynch, he says that he's going to be doing vote analysis, which sounds like a great idea, but then that also never materializes. He has since provided a null read on DYH and nothing else.

In its totality, Alderan's posts are lacking in what I consider to be actual contributions to the town, and the way he pushed DimmuKlok seemed much too emphatic compared to the rest of his reads he's made so far. He hasn't followed up on several of his claims, and has instead provided several bits of fluff, like "stay active when accused."

Now would be a good time to take your own advice.

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On February 21 2012 04:21 Alderan wrote:
Sorry for the hiatus, but I'm back, lets rock.

Ok so here's some voting analysis I did about the Day 1 vote.

In the last 30 minutes of voting 7 people Switched to Dimmuklok in this order:

Trapd00r
MidnightGladius
Zelblade
Jaj22
Sloosh
TKHawkins
EchelonTree

This is a kind of switch that I have never seen before, and what it tells me is that mafia were extremely scared to no lynch or we were previously targeting a scum member. The leader prior to the lynch was EchelonTree who was coincidentally the lynch pin in the voting (pun definitely intended).

Situation 1. Fear of no lynch: Mafia feels confident they are not being targeted in the least, and thus starts pushing whomever they feel like they can get votes on to. The only concise and irrefutable case at the time was mine on Dimmuklok so it was a perfect fit.

The voting was in dissaray, so much so that MidnightGladius even makes the comment that the only people that are going to be able to be lynched are him and EchelonTree, so we need to decide something.
Then Trapd00r leads off with the "Oh hey, Alderan's case was pretty good, lets take it into consideration now". 20 minutes later, we have a misslynch.

Situation 2. EchelonTree is scum This situation hinges around the idea that ET was leading the voting prior to the end of the day, and managed a 20 minute shift of votes to, for better or worse, let him live another day. The idea is this then (this one get's a little WIFOMy but bear with me, it's logical), mafia are scrambling, looking for any case they can get a bandwagon on, identify mine, and jump on it using the town's fear of a no lynch as leverage to save their own and lynch a towny.

Those not voting for ET that switched to Dimmuklok-
- Sloosh
- Zelblade
- EchelonTree

Note about Situation 2: Trapd00r seems more town in this situation than in Situation 1 as he had a vote cast on ET and was one of the major ET critics. Can't rule him out completely, but definitely if Situation 2 is correct he is leaning town.

Well which do you think, Alderan? Well, I think situation 1 is the most logical in that everyone pretty much knew at the time of the vote that there going to be a no lynch unless a drastic change was made, so scum supporting ET would not have created a huge movement off of him, because that can only raise suspicions. This is WIFOM of course, which is why I listed both options instead of just Scenario 1.

My next post will be analysis of Trapd00r, which should give us a nudge in the right direction about which of these cases happened.

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