| sandroba Brazil. March 23 2012 01:50. Posts 3116 | Profile # |
fuck it you guys know best. this game gives me headaches.
##Unvote
##Vote: Probulous |
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| VisceraEyes United States. March 23 2012 01:59. Posts 9768 | Profile Blog # |
That's the spirit sandroba. Don't get so emotional about it though - you could have been getting information YOU want, but you wanted us to do it without you. What gives you headaches about it?
Probulous is verbose, so if you think he's making sense as town, you have to assume he's capable of making sense as scum. Explain what's so frustrating about this game. |
| | Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET**** |
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| sandroba Brazil. March 23 2012 02:18. Posts 3116 | Profile # |
| I'm frustrated with myself because I'm not sure about anything =P |
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| Snarfs Canada. March 23 2012 02:21. Posts 764 | Profile # |
Yea... okay. I'm kinda seeing it now.
Another thing that I wish Probulous had time to respond to would be his reasoning for why johnnywup gets the confused noob treatment but Tobon is clearly scum day 1. Stupid timezones.
Then there is the gap between his last statement on day 1 and his case on slOosh, which doesn't make sense with the called into office thing because the last statement on day 1 would have been around 4:30pm his time. I don't like voting people just for reasons such as that because everybody gets busy and that's not a good reason to lynch, but adding it with everything that everyone else is mentioning it seems more suspicious.
I hope this isn't wrong.
##Unvote
##Vote Probulous |
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| Tobon United States. March 23 2012 02:22. Posts 322 | Profile # |
I think what it comes down to for me is that all through Day 1 I was reading TIPD as scummy, as was Sloosh. But his lynch vote on Jackal obviously makes a big difference, and then his post today quoting conversation between his two heads makes me think town. Either that or really incredibly masterful scum play to fake towny internal communication so well and so casually. ;-)
But Probulous never mentioned any of the seemingly scummy bits about TIPD on day 1. He only started pushing TIPD on day 2, after he was already a target himself, and after most of the decent reasons to suspect TIPD were already moot. I think he was trying to gin up a wagon, any wagon, by going back and looking at suspicions of the more newb easily convincible sorts (e.g. me) and trying to play on them. I also find Sloosh's argument convincing about how silly it would be for TIPD and Sloosh to have played things the way they've unfolded if they were both scum.
I also think it remains likeliest that we're in the simple scenario where our remaining 2 scum are in the Sloosh/Probulous/Nemesis set of non-Jackal voters. So I find Probulous completely ignoring Nemesis as a potential target to deflect attention from himself suspicious as well. At this point those two (Prob/Nem) look like best scum bets to me.
Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice.
##Unvote
##Vote: Probulous |
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| VisceraEyes United States. March 23 2012 02:31. Posts 9768 | Profile Blog # |
On March 23 2012 02:22 Tobon wrote:Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice.
I'm sure it doesn't feel that way to Probulous, regardless of his alignment.  |
| | Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET**** |
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| Dirkzor Denmark. March 23 2012 03:26. Posts 1351 | Profile Blog # |
I'm in a rush and have only skimmed the thread. I feel that sloosh is more scummy looking back. His defence have been decent with a tone of townie, but the double roleblock caught my attention. I'm more down with a sloosh lynch then Prob.
##Vote slOosh
I won't be back before lynch so this will be it. If you decide to lynch Probulous I see no problem. |
| | Getting all badges on Kongregate.com -> My blog to see progress! |
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| Snarfs Canada. March 23 2012 04:27. Posts 764 | Profile # |
| Can we get an updated vote count, please? Yes, partly because I'm too lazy to do it myself, but also partly because I don't want to screw it up. |
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| Toadesstern Germany. March 23 2012 04:28. Posts 6118 | Profile # | |
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| Snarfs Canada. March 23 2012 04:30. Posts 764 | Profile # |
Thank you  |
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| wherebugsgo United States. March 23 2012 04:37. Posts 7967 | Profile Blog # |
Sorry about the lack of votecount guys; I'm on my phone so it's difficult.
I'll be getting one up shortly.
Oh wtf I got ninjaed |
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| Toadesstern Germany. March 23 2012 04:41. Posts 6118 | Profile # |
Day 2 Votecount so far
Probulous (6): SlOosh, VisceralEyes, VisceralEyes, Sandroba, Snarfs, Tobon, TIPD
sloOsh (5): Nemisis, Sandroba, xsksc, Probulous, Snarfs, TIPD, VisceralEyes, Tobon, Johnnywup, VisceralEyes, Dirkzor
Should be correct. If you see your name somewhere wrong please tell me. I just searched for bolded text real quick so if you voted without bolding your text I probably missed it. Or I'm just stupid and missed it because I was trying to make this real quick.
Edit: Oh and with 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch
Edit: fixed  , TIPD on sloOsh as well Last edit: 2012-03-23 05:10:23 |
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| johnnywup United States. March 23 2012 04:45. Posts 2743 | Profile Blog # |
| rereading some filters before i decide completely on a vote |
| | Infinity Seven #1 Favorite Team~ | Startale #2 favorite~ |
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| Toad_in_Pink_Dress United States. March 23 2012 04:48. Posts 50 | Profile # |
If Probulous believed in his case against slo0sh why has he spent so much time trying not pushing slo0sh?
I can assure you that i too am waiting on this
On March 22 2012 23:47 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote:
I have my own defense to Probulous's case but I am still making it into a post.
We are willing to switch and so we shall.
##unvote
##vote Probulous |
| | all glory to the hypnotoad! |
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| wherebugsgo United States. March 23 2012 04:56. Posts 7967 | Profile Blog # |
Day 2 Vote Count
6 to lynch
roughly 2 hours remain in the day
slOosh (5)
Nemesis
sandroba
xsksc
Probulous
Snarfs
Toad_In_Pink_Dress
VisceraEyes
Tobon
johnnywup
VisceraEyes
Dirkzor
Probulous (6)
slOosh
VisceraEyes
VisceraEyes
sandroba
Snarfs
Tobon
Toad_In_Pink_Dress
Last edit: 2012-03-23 04:57:57 |
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| Snarfs Canada. March 23 2012 04:58. Posts 764 | Profile # |
| The discrepency in vote counts is that Toad has Dirkzor on Probulous in stead of slOosh where he should be |
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| johnnywup United States. March 23 2012 04:59. Posts 2743 | Profile Blog # |
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 22 2012 08:19 Probulous wrote:
VE I don't understand your case. I am scum because I didn't think you were mafia after you voted for Jackal?
What is wrong with my reasoning because it still makes sense to me?Votes > words in my opinion. Explain this to me because I am completely at a loss as to why this makes me scum. I am town and have followed the same logic I use every game so if there is something fundamentally wrong in my thinking, point it out. Otherwise I am going to get mis-lynched again.
Does everyone else understand what VE is saying?
On March 22 2012 10:11 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 10:09 VisceraEyes wrote:
How's this for the rest of it. The meat of your case is his defense of Jackal.
I defended Jackal for a fair amount of D1. How is that any different? What makes TIPD scum rather than me?
You "Jackal is clearly town" TIPD "Jackal always lurks Day 1 and this is scummy" Big difference in my mind.
i thought votes>words? TIPD voted for jackal as well, so why doesnt that confirm him?
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 22 2012 10:30 Probulous wrote:Ok let me explain that quote nice and simply because obviously I am not making myself clear. here ( Klicky) they say this
Show nested quote +On March 20 2012 04:08 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote:
We both think Jackal looks about as scummy as he typically does
Which says what exactly? That Jackal typically looks scummy? How is that not a soft-defense? They are saying he looks scummy most of the time. His lurking is "typically" scummy so why should they vote for him. If they thought he was scummy they would have said "Jackal looks scummy", not that he typically looks scummy. That word changes the whole meaning of the sentence. Then four people vote for him and suddenly it becomes this ( Klicky)
Show nested quote +On March 20 2012 06:12 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote:Our reasons: He posts a little at the start but then He does very little to move discussion forward or even participate in it The closest thing to analysis he produced was this and he follows it with a vote after VE prods him. he pops back in to sheep the case on snarf with a vote, minutes after it was posted. This indicates to me that he is not looking for scum but rather a place to put his vote.
Which can be summed up as "Jackal has been useless". How is this not his "typically" scummy play? I'll tell you how, four other people have started a wagon that's how.
hm? i thought #5 was pretty early?
On March 22 2012 09:52 Probulous wrote:
The only thing going for TIPD right now is their vote on Jackal. It was pretty early (5th vote) and most people who voted for him seemed to bandwagon sandroba. I could easily see them being bussing Jackal to avoid suspicion today. I am more comfortable with a slOosh lynch because of his unvote, but if he is getting let off (why?) than TIPD is our lynch target today.
as well as what other people have brought up
##unvote slOosh
##vote Probulous |
| | Infinity Seven #1 Favorite Team~ | Startale #2 favorite~ |
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| wherebugsgo United States. March 23 2012 05:00. Posts 7967 | Profile Blog # |
Please ignore Toad's vote count; it's incorrect in at least one way.
Still on my phone, if there is a counting issue with my vote count please inform me immediately. |
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| johnnywup United States. March 23 2012 05:01. Posts 2743 | Profile Blog # |
| also tobon monty hall doesnt apply here because no persons role was revealed during a vote |
| | Infinity Seven #1 Favorite Team~ | Startale #2 favorite~ |
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| VisceraEyes United States. March 23 2012 05:03. Posts 9768 | Profile Blog # |
On March 23 2012 05:01 johnnywup wrote:
also tobon monty hall doesnt apply here because no persons role was revealed during a vote
There's also not guaranteed to be scum inside our lynch candidates, technically speaking. That is unless you know something we don't.
It's an interesting analogy though... |
| | Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET**** |
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