Another thing that I wish Probulous had time to respond to would be his reasoning for why johnnywup gets the confused noob treatment but Tobon is clearly scum day 1. Stupid timezones.
Then there is the gap between his last statement on day 1 and his case on slOosh, which doesn't make sense with the called into office thing because the last statement on day 1 would have been around 4:30pm his time. I don't like voting people just for reasons such as that because everybody gets busy and that's not a good reason to lynch, but adding it with everything that everyone else is mentioning it seems more suspicious.
I hope this isn't wrong.
##Unvote ##Vote Probulous
Tobon United States. March 23 2012 02:22. Posts 322
I think what it comes down to for me is that all through Day 1 I was reading TIPD as scummy, as was Sloosh. But his lynch vote on Jackal obviously makes a big difference, and then his post today quoting conversation between his two heads makes me think town. Either that or really incredibly masterful scum play to fake towny internal communication so well and so casually. ;-)
But Probulous never mentioned any of the seemingly scummy bits about TIPD on day 1. He only started pushing TIPD on day 2, after he was already a target himself, and after most of the decent reasons to suspect TIPD were already moot. I think he was trying to gin up a wagon, any wagon, by going back and looking at suspicions of the more newb easily convincible sorts (e.g. me) and trying to play on them. I also find Sloosh's argument convincing about how silly it would be for TIPD and Sloosh to have played things the way they've unfolded if they were both scum.
I also think it remains likeliest that we're in the simple scenario where our remaining 2 scum are in the Sloosh/Probulous/Nemesis set of non-Jackal voters. So I find Probulous completely ignoring Nemesis as a potential target to deflect attention from himself suspicious as well. At this point those two (Prob/Nem) look like best scum bets to me.
Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice.
##Unvote ##Vote: Probulous
VisceraEyes United States. March 23 2012 02:31. Posts 9768
On March 23 2012 02:22 Tobon wrote: Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice.
I'm sure it doesn't feel that way to Probulous, regardless of his alignment.
Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET****
I'm in a rush and have only skimmed the thread. I feel that sloosh is more scummy looking back. His defence have been decent with a tone of townie, but the double roleblock caught my attention. I'm more down with a sloosh lynch then Prob.
I won't be back before lynch so this will be it. If you decide to lynch Probulous I see no problem.
Getting all badges on Kongregate.com -> My blog to see progress!
Should be correct. If you see your name somewhere wrong please tell me. I just searched for bolded text real quick so if you voted without bolding your text I probably missed it. Or I'm just stupid and missed it because I was trying to make this real quick.
Edit: Oh and with 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch Edit: fixed , TIPD on sloOsh as well
Last edit: 2012-03-23 05:10:23
johnnywup United States. March 23 2012 04:45. Posts 2743
On March 22 2012 08:19 Probulous wrote: VE I don't understand your case. I am scum because I didn't think you were mafia after you voted for Jackal?
What is wrong with my reasoning because it still makes sense to me?Votes > words in my opinion. Explain this to me because I am completely at a loss as to why this makes me scum. I am town and have followed the same logic I use every game so if there is something fundamentally wrong in my thinking, point it out. Otherwise I am going to get mis-lynched again.
On March 20 2012 04:08 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote: We both think Jackal looks about as scummy as he typically does
Which says what exactly? That Jackal typically looks scummy? How is that not a soft-defense? They are saying he looks scummy most of the time. His lurking is "typically" scummy so why should they vote for him.
If they thought he was scummy they would have said "Jackal looks scummy", not that he typically looks scummy. That word changes the whole meaning of the sentence.
Then four people vote for him and suddenly it becomes this (Klicky)
On March 20 2012 06:12 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote: Our reasons: He posts a little at the start but then He does very little to move discussion forward or even participate in it The closest thing to analysis he produced was this and he follows it with a vote after VE prods him. he pops back in to sheep the case on snarf with a vote, minutes after it was posted. This indicates to me that he is not looking for scum but rather a place to put his vote.
Which can be summed up as "Jackal has been useless". How is this not his "typically" scummy play? I'll tell you how, four other people have started a wagon that's how.
hm? i thought #5 was pretty early?
On March 22 2012 09:52 Probulous wrote: The only thing going for TIPD right now is their vote on Jackal. It was pretty early (5th vote) and most people who voted for him seemed to bandwagon sandroba. I could easily see them being bussing Jackal to avoid suspicion today. I am more comfortable with a slOosh lynch because of his unvote, but if he is getting let off (why?) than TIPD is our lynch target today.