Flash's PvT problem

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On March 20 2012 22:39 buldermar wrote:
Thank you OP for the entertaining meme!

Firstly, one should be cautious about comparing games - in particular games just prior to the surgery with the ones in this SPL. I recall flash saying something that implicitly suggested a lack of motivation/desire of winning against JangBi in an interview by TossGirl (e.g. he wanted to get the surgery done asap). I don't think it's absurd to suggest that choice of strategies in some of his last games before the surgery could have been influenced by the recurrent physical pain in his wrist.

Speaking of only postsurgery games, 3 consecutive losses against protoss players are not enough to be statistically significant. This means that the simplest explanation "coincidence" also easily could be the most accurate one. Keeping this in mind, we can now look into each of the games he lost.

Versus Dear
Flash vc Dear

Flash opens with 1rax CC, Dear opens with 1gate core w/ range into nexus. These are to my knowledge fairly balanced openings giving no player a significant BO advantage.

6:12 Flash manages to scout a robotics facility with a hidden scv in Dear's main.

7:10 The observer shows a hidden robotics supportbay placed at the back of Dear's natural near the nexus, and an observatory at the front of the natural.

7:46 Flash starts constructing an engineering bay around the time his academy is up so that he can scan for information around the time the engineering bay is up. With this information, he can decide on whether or not he should make turrets.

8:12 The first scan is placed in the middle of Dear's main. Since Dear smartly placed his shuttle at his natural instead of having it hanging over the robotics facility, Flash a) does not scout a robotics supportbay, b) sees no shuttle waiting for a reaver.

8:26 Flash scans top left of Dear's base looking for hidden tech, but only sees a pylon.

8:48 Shortly after having cancelled the building turrets, having seen no signs of a reaverbuild, Flash uses 4 vultures to scout Dear's newly built 3rd, contributing to Flash's conclusion: Dear is apperently going for an economical opening.

9:05 To Flash's surprise, a shuttle shows up. Seing this, Flash immediately starts turrets again.

9:08 Dear gets off a nice shot in the scv line.

9:17 Another nice shot.

9:33 Perhaps the most deciding shot of the game, killing a lot of scvs.

10:40 Flash tries to secure 3rd, knowing that Dear already got his 3rd up. Dear hits just before a defensive turret is up with 2 shuttles and his army (argueably, not much would have changed had the turret finished before). Flash loses his army and essentially the game.


Summary:
1) Dear kept shuttle at natural, hoping for scan in main (happened)
2) Dear kept robotics supportbay at natural, hoping for lack of scan/scout here (happened)
3) Dear took a 3rd at what would be the normal timing for a normal non-reaver opening, hoping for flash to scout this (happened)
4) Not a single reavershot missed/bugged.

Based on obtained information, it "could" be correct to cancel the turrets. A delayed or quicker scan, or a scan at a different location, would possibly have provided different information. It remains unknown if locations for scan and timings for scan were arbitrary/intentionally randomized, or if Dear accounted for this. On that same token, it remains unknown if Flash scouted suboptimally (aside from the perhaps just unfortunate timings and locations for scans). Thus, it remains unknown whether Flash actually made any noticeable mistakes (let me know if I missed any) aside from the mistake of being unlucky.

I think it is fair to claim that Dear was at least a bit lucky this game, as is claiming that he played it smartly. He had huge hits with his reaver shots, Flash scouted and scanned at the ideal time and place from Dear's perspective. Reversibly, it would be unfair to claim that Flash had much luck. Consequently, the distribution of fortune this game favored Dear, which, in conjunction with the tricky plays, won him the game.

Versus StarDust
Flash vs StarDust

Flash opens with a proxy rax, StarDust opens with a gateway.

4:19 StarDust sees two marines with his scouting probe, allowing him to expect a hidden bunker.

4:30 Expecting (correctly) the hidden bunker, StarDust pull probes to his natural to prevent it from finishing. Losing 4 probes and mining time, he manages to kill a finished bunker. Flash brought 3 scv's of his own to support his marines.

5:20 Upon seing the first dragoon, Flash opts to return to his main. The game settles at what looks to be a normal one with both players taking their natural expansion.

8:00 Flash scouts a building nexus at StarDust's natural with a floating rax.

9:00 StarDust decides to cheese, proxying a robotics facility and 3 gateways instead of taking 3rd, whilst Flash takes his inbase mineral only 3rd. Since Flash opted to skip academy and just get turrets blindly, he has no way of scouting the lack of buildings in StarDust's main. Furthermore, he flew his rax to the north, scouting no proxied buildings in the process. Using the a shuttle to transport units to Flash's 3rd and later for a reaver, StarDust wins the game with his 2 base play.

Summary:
1) StarDust (perhaps intentionally) scouted marines in time to stop the bunkerrush without losing anything aside from miningtime and 4 probes.
2) Flash skips academy, lacking scans that could potentially have revealed a lack of gateways in the main of StarDust.
3) StarDust proxied his buildings before scouting the 3rd of Flash, blindly hoping for Flash to opt for a quick 3rd instead of a 2base timing push. (happened)
4) Contrary to the game against Dear, Flash opted to do a 1fact into 3rd instead of 2fact into 3rd, lacking vultures to scout with as a result.
5) Flash scouted no proxied buildings with his floating rax in the middle of the map, decreasing the odds of StarDust having proxied any (from Flash's perspective).

Similar to the game against Dear, Flash scouted all the wrong things and thus made unfortunate decisions. For instance, had the floating rax scouted main instead of natural, Flash would have scouted the lack of gateways. Or had he opted for 2fact into 3rd, vultures might have scouted the proxied buildings and Flash would have had more units to defend with. I say this merely to point to the fact that StarDust was having a best case scenario with his proxied buildings, presumeably making them without any certainty of Flash not doing one or more of: a 2base push, going 2fact into 3rd, scouting them with the floating rax, scouting lack of gateways in main with the floating rax, getting academy for scans.

Versus Horang2
Flash vs Horang2

Flash does a conservative and safe 1rax gas 1fact opening while scouting whilst Horang2 skips any probescouting, doing a normal 1gate core opening, relying on his dragoon to scout. Maybe the map is bad for proxy rax or perhaps Horang2 had a bit of luck having Flash do a conservative opening.

8:35 Perhaps in hopes of Horang2 having taken an early 3rd or having teched to something beside observers, Flash decides to push with a handful of marines, a few vultures with mines and 3 tanks. However, Horang2 went for a standard 3 gate and thus managed to defend without too many losses.

15:35 Horang2 goes for a huge 13gate arbiter push, hitting Flash just before vessels are out. Flash loses his entire army, but eventually manages to push Horang2 back.

18:40 Horang2 goes for another big push. This time, Flash has 2 vessels out. In anticipation of recalls in main or natural, Flash has one vessel at each of these locations. However, unfortunately for flash, Horang2 uses his arbiter to support his army, making a huge recall on top of the army of Flash as a result hereof. It should be noted, though, that Flash was behind at this point and most likely would have lost the game either way.

Summary:
1) Flash takes a slight BO disadvantage, doing a 1fact into CC opening while scouting against a blind core opening.
2) Flash opts to do a push from 2 bases in hopes of Horang2 doing something nonstandard.

This seems like the most interresting game of the 3 games to me. In this game, it Horang2 did not seem to win mostly by virtue of luck. Obviously, he had a slight lead neglecting to scout with a probe while being up against the conservative opening of Flash, but is that really significant enough to explain the outcome of the game? Flash did do an unsuccesful 2base push, but did it really put him behind that much? Horang2 also did stay on 1 forge, which is suboptimal had his 13gate push not worked, but it doesn't seem that decisive either. Finally, he did push just before the first vessel of Flash, but nothing prevents Flash from scanning arbiter timing and prepare accordingly, getting the vessel out in time. Did Flash make any significant mistakes or was he really unlucky at any point in this game?

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