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| michaelthe United States. March 27 2012 06:30. Posts 340 | Profile # |
ebwop:
##Unvote: Seviro
##Vote: Nova_Terra |
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| michaelthe United States. March 27 2012 06:33. Posts 340 | Profile # |
This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight. |
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| Gossemerr United States. March 27 2012 06:47. Posts 91 | Profile # |
On March 27 2012 06:33 michaelthe wrote:
This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
Why would a townie that is up for the chopping block just lurk? I would definitely not be lurking in their shoes, as that would look HELLA scummy. You sir, are becoming more and more suspicious in my book. |
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| Nova_Terra Switzerland. March 27 2012 06:48. Posts 1180 | Profile # |
On March 27 2012 06:29 michaelthe wrote:
I am changing my vote to Nova.
He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense.
I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself.
After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this).
Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me.
Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is).
##Vote: Nova_Terra
No, no, no, no nonono im not falling for this, you're trying to make mementoss not suspect you if seviro is green
and of course if sev was green its me and you and of course i would try to get you killed. but i would already if not seviro...
and why did he have to self vote |
| | Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla |
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| michaelthe United States. March 27 2012 06:56. Posts 340 | Profile # |
On March 27 2012 06:47 Gossemerr wrote:
Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 06:33 michaelthe wrote:
This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
Why would a townie that is up for the chopping block just lurk? I would definitely not be lurking in their shoes, as that would look HELLA scummy. You sir, are becoming more and more suspicious in my book.
I mean if we had 2 townies on the chopping block the mafia would just lurk. Not the townies lurk...
Instead we have a lot of activity, so at least one, if not both, are prolly scum |
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| BlueyD Canada. March 27 2012 06:59. Posts 257 | Profile # |
I don't know if we can see Seviro's voting on himself as town-favored, actually. We've already agreed that it's critical we lynch a mafia tonight, so if he's town the good move is certainly not to vote for his own lynching, especially since his take on Nova (our other target) is 'slightly leaning scum'. I would rather have seen a defense than this, or a "yeah, I haven't been great, but Nova is worse, lynch him and give me another chance".
I still stand by my idea that both might be red, and they're playing against each other so that the survivor won't be suspicious, given that it seems obvious one of the two is about to get lynched.
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I want to draw attention to michaelthe's voteswitch. Vote count at the moment of his switch:
Seviro (6): michaelthe, BlueyD, Nova_Terra, Artanis[Xp], Mementoss, Seviro
Nova_Terra (2): Ninja4ever, Gossemerr
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe. |
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| michaelthe United States. March 27 2012 07:07. Posts 340 | Profile # |
On March 27 2012 06:59 BlueyD wrote:
I still stand by my idea that both might be red
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Seviro (6): michaelthe, BlueyD, Nova_Terra, Artanis[Xp], Mementoss, Seviro
Nova_Terra (2): Ninja4ever, Gossemerr
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe.
IF they are both red, 2 of the votes on Seviro are now mafia on the chopping block. Both could swap, saving atleast 1 mafia for another night. We would have 4 votes on Seviro after they both swap. Seviro would even claim self preservation.
Thats the best explination for Seviro's swap to self.
I will state that I will be until deadline again, and swap if needed, but we would need A LOT of people to do that tonight if we have 2 mafia on the chopblock.
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| michaelthe United States. March 27 2012 07:11. Posts 340 | Profile # |
ebwop: In other words, anyone who thinks we might have 2 mafia on the chopblock should ignore both of their votes.
If BlueyD swaps to Nova, and Artanis we are set if none of the votes on Nova swap off. Mementoss should be active as well. |
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| BlueyD Canada. March 27 2012 07:13. Posts 257 | Profile # |
| Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before. |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. March 27 2012 07:24. Posts 3451 | Profile Blog # |
| We need to make sure we get one of them guys. Since Seviro is my main suspect, I'm asking all townies to put their votes on Seviro. Right or wrong, you can at least be sure I'm not scum. This way the vote won't be influenced by scum. |
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| michaelthe United States. March 27 2012 07:26. Posts 340 | Profile # |
On March 27 2012 07:13 BlueyD wrote:
Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before.
Look at who we have active as well:
Mementoss, Artanis, You, Seviro, Nova.
We can get the guaranteed kill on Nova easily. Goss and Ninja are both afk. |
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| michaelthe United States. March 27 2012 07:28. Posts 340 | Profile # |
| I am out for ~2 hours, but will be back after that until lynch time. |
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| Nova_Terra Switzerland. March 27 2012 07:32. Posts 1180 | Profile # |
| before i do something that i will regret because im to tired to think right im going to bed. leaving vote on sev.sure about michael being scum cause of this at least. sevrio and michael in a team or just michael tryint to solo this, has to be mafia. |
| | Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla |
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 Ninja4ever. France. March 27 2012 07:34. Posts 231 | Profile # |
Wow, loooot of things hapenning here it seems. I had exams to work on for tommorow, which explain why I was inactive (for those not believing me, you can check here http://edt.bde.assos.efrei.fr/?s=13&d=-1&p=3 I'm in L3 and on tuesday I have a "CE" which means exam in french)
Reading everything atm, looks like it basically is seviro vs nova as I suspected. |
| | "Live as if you were to die tomorrow, learn as if you were to live for ever." |
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| virtu United Kingdom. March 27 2012 07:53. Posts 143 | Profile # | |
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| Mementoss Canada. March 27 2012 08:04. Posts 2480 | Profile Blog # |
omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.
Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. However, if michael is scum, why would Seviro as scum put a case against him? So this makes Seviro look less scummy. But why would Michael vote Nova if Nova is scum? It looks like he's trying to create confusion and get a no-lynch, directly after I changed my vote to Seviro. Note he waits till after I do this to say anything. It seems like 2/3 of these guys are scum. Why would he go for the majority on Nova if nova was scum, it would be so hard to get a majority lynch... If he got a no-lynch it would save a scum, if not, he could say he voted a scum off, making him innocent. So a safe bet? Last minute bus?
Seviro's vote switch is really odd. But it isn't influenced by my vote switch as we both posted at the same time. Why would Seviro vote himself?
As mafia, trying to add confusion and get a no-lynch, would only want a no-lynch if both him and Nova were mafia, as it coulda went either way.
As town, he actually was looking out for the best of the towns interests and doesn't want a no-lynch to go through. Realizes this lynch will bring important information to the table.
If 2/3 of these guys are mafia, what is the most likely mafia duo?
Michael/Nova -> Most Likely
Nova/Seviro
Seviro/Michael -> Least Likely
IMO.
Keep the discussion up we need a solid choice. Artanis don't just shift to Seviro, we have enough activity that we can discuss this legit. |
| | http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw |
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| Mementoss Canada. March 27 2012 08:10. Posts 2480 | Profile Blog # |
| Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass. |
| | http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. March 27 2012 08:13. Posts 3451 | Profile Blog # |
On March 27 2012 08:10 Mementoss wrote:
Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass.
Or perhaps that's just exactly what Mafia wants us to think because they realize it's the only chance to save Seviro at this point. Too much WIFOM, and you're questioning it to the point that I'm starting to question your legitimacy. |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. March 27 2012 08:17. Posts 3451 | Profile Blog # |
| There's just been too many mafia tricks this day. They're definitely doing a good job throwing us off. The only reason I can imagine for this is because there's a mafia on the chopping block. Seviro was the likely candidate to get lynched and him voting for himself makes more sense for scum then town, since it's basically just another trick in the book. Tricks are things mafia uses a lot more often than town. Too many attempts at confusion lead me to believe we've got the right target. |
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| Mementoss Canada. March 27 2012 08:19. Posts 2480 | Profile Blog # |
On March 27 2012 08:13 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 08:10 Mementoss wrote:
Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass.
Or perhaps that's just exactly what Mafia wants us to think because they realize it's the only chance to save Seviro at this point. Too much WIFOM, and you're questioning it to the point that I'm starting to question your legitimacy.
Artanis I am just really confused by Michaels play, he can't be town. How can anyone be that terrible? My last two posts were a reaction to me just getting back and reading this garbage, unproductive mafia propghanda confusion. Right now you are the only person I trust in the game. I would like discussion on this recent matter cause I want to pressure this ridiculousness. But in the end I think either Nova or Seviro would be a good lynch at least for information, and if we are lucky. They are both scum. In the end I'm gunna leave the call to you, because a no lynch is unacceptable. I will vote the way you think the majority vote, should and is most likely to go. |
| | http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw |
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