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| strongandbig United States. April 05 2012 23:18. Posts 3194 | Profile Blog # |
Ugh, just noticed a problem with my argument in my last post.
After KB, marvellosity was the second person to jump on the "lunch a lurker" bandwagon against solohan.
This could have been a distancing gambit, but it does throw a wrench into the analysis. What we have to decide is, would marvellosity have believed that there was a realistic chance for solohan to get lynched day 1 for lurking? (Assume for now that if solohan is scum, he was in communication with his buddy despite being afk. Maybe with a smartphone. I think that if one scum actually thought the other scum wasn't going to post that day, he probably wouldn't try to start a lurker lynch bandwagon on him.) Depending on how risky of a move it would have seemed, we can maybe figure out the chance that one scum would join that incipient bandwagon on another. |
| | [QUOTE][B]On March 20 2013 14:51 WaveofShadow wrote:[/B] I don't know much about Coag, but he doesn't seem like the type of guy who goes against the grain just for kicks. [/QUOTE] |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. April 06 2012 00:07. Posts 11296 | Profile # |
On April 05 2012 23:18 strongandbig wrote:
Ugh, just noticed a problem with my argument in my last post.
After KB, marvellosity was the second person to jump on the "lunch a lurker" bandwagon against solohan.
This could have been a distancing gambit, but it does throw a wrench into the analysis. What we have to decide is, would marvellosity have believed that there was a realistic chance for solohan to get lynched day 1 for lurking? (Assume for now that if solohan is scum, he was in communication with his buddy despite being afk. Maybe with a smartphone. I think that if one scum actually thought the other scum wasn't going to post that day, he probably wouldn't try to start a lurker lynch bandwagon on him.) Depending on how risky of a move it would have seemed, we can maybe figure out the chance that one scum would join that incipient bandwagon on another.
I smiled at the smartphone comment 
As you're probably aware, I could have brought up the fact I voted Solohan on any of the last few pages, but I didn't see much point in doing so due to the natural reaction of the bit I bolded.
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| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| omnomMuffins United States. April 06 2012 04:10. Posts 217 | Profile # |
I am not really comfortable making any reads until the night is over at this point.
We have no idea how anyone will interact without having the distractions in the game, and the way people react when forced to talk without them will be interesting.
I am not so sure that we can jump to the "lynch a lurker" as a mafia tactic, as the people that started it are now confirmed town, and on top of that, this is a newbie game making it so they could just have been like, okay that makes sense.
I am sad that Kohbee actually was the cop, especially since he played so belligerently that he couldn't get anyone to trust or believe him, including myself. But again, this is a newbie game so everyone is still learning how to act. |
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| HiroPro United States. April 06 2012 08:24. Posts 2150 | Profile # |
On April 05 2012 23:18 strongandbig wrote:
Ugh, just noticed a problem with my argument in my last post.
After KB, marvellosity was the second person to jump on the "lunch a lurker" bandwagon against solohan.
This could have been a distancing gambit, but it does throw a wrench into the analysis. What we have to decide is, would marvellosity have believed that there was a realistic chance for solohan to get lynched day 1 for lurking? (Assume for now that if solohan is scum, he was in communication with his buddy despite being afk. Maybe with a smartphone. I think that if one scum actually thought the other scum wasn't going to post that day, he probably wouldn't try to start a lurker lynch bandwagon on him.) Depending on how risky of a move it would have seemed, we can maybe figure out the chance that one scum would join that incipient bandwagon on another.
Looking at the votes from the first day, marvel withdraws his vote a little later before anyone else votes on solohan. I don't think this clears marvel in any way. |
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| KharadBanar Austria. April 06 2012 08:59. Posts 429 | Profile # |
A WILD ROLECLAIM APPEARS!
To preface the following epic wall of text, let me explain why I'm doing this.
I believe scum wants to kill me tonight because I'm so high on everyone's list of town reads, so I'll get out every bit of information I can before the day post, because I have secret thoughts that I left unbeknownst to town for my own good. HOWEVER, if they're not killing me right now they will be after reading this so I'm saving myself by posting this when they probably have no time left to respond (if I would leave them time to respond I could as well have committed ##Suicide).
I will be using the maximum amount of formatting available to me to get my point across in this post, because I have no reason to assume I'm going to live to explain myself any further. Also, if I live through this against all expectations, I think this post should confirm myself town because constructing a cover story that epic is an effort scum wouldn't be making at this point.
I will also be using parentheses in the mathematical sense to group my logical statements together sometimes.
+ Show Spoiler [For strongandbig] +
On April 05 2012 09:21 strongandbig wrote:
I insist that Kohbee's play made no sense to me.
However, it obviously made sense to other people, so maybe I'm wrong. Could be either way, and since he's not here to defend himself I'm gonna stop dissing on him.
This is the point where I'm explaining my town read on Kohbee that I promised earlier. It should also be immediately apparent why I was holding this back.
So without further ado, my claim:
+ Show Spoiler +
Things I did
Night 1: I jail Kohbee.
If Kohbee's claim is real: I protect him from any night kill scum might throw at him; the roleblock is unimportant because if scum don't kill him that night they roleblock him anyway. I knew of the very real possibility of scum targeting someone else, but at the time I deemed Kohbee the most probable target.
If Kohbee's claim is fake: I have now a 50% chance of roleblocking the Goon meaning no kill happening that night UNLESS I get roleblocked too (basically a 1 in 6 chance because scum doesn't know where to shoot) and 50% chance of roleblocking the Roleblocker, in which case Xzibit comes in and throws his catch phrase around but nothing else really happens. + Show Spoiler [For the meme impaired] +
Position after Night 1: FourFace died. Kohbee claims to be roleblocked.
This means I have confirmation that the Goon had indeed succeeded in killing his victim that night. To me, that means that Kohbee is less likely scum because if he were scum that means there's 50% chance of him being the Goon and then an 83% chance of the roleblocker not targeting me correctly and my block actually succeeding, meaning that by pure probabilistic analysis Kohbee has 50%*83%=42% less chance of being mafia than anyone else, which is a slight town tell. (If you don't believe that, triple check your math and then tell me, I'm pretty sure of that calculation being correct)
Knowing that Kohbee is 40% less probable to be scum than everyone else tells me to, I proceed to first make him stop his flame warring, then I concentrate on analysing Solohan50's behaviour which I do not feel the need of elaborating too much because I posted lengthily in the thread about it.
Kohbee saying that he's roleblocked makes no difference, he had to say it. Kohbee needed to say it because he otherwise had to come up with some detective result, Kohbee needed to say it because he was actually most likely double roleblocked, once by mafia and once by me while protecting him.
Night 2: This is where the fun part begins because I have no idea what the results of it will be: I am currently jailing Solohan50.
So here I am repeating the math and logic from above, but with different repercussions than last time:
If Solohan50 is scum: 50% that he is Roleblocker, 50% that he is Goon; of those 50% the Roleblocker has 3/4 or 75% chance of missing me and my roleblocking actually goes through, so overall 3/8 or 37,5% chance of me accomplishing something with my action. If I don't, nothing will happen and the kill will go through (most likely on me).
If Solohan50 is town: My action does nothing and we are royally screwed because we can't distinguish that from the case that he is the Roleblocker / that he is the Goon and the Roleblocker got me. The night kill goes through and I am again most likely dead.
Position after Night 2 (extrapolated):
Possibility 1: Nobody gets killed. This is the best situation for us because we know for sure that Solohan50 is the goon (or scum choose to nokill, but that doesn't make any sense whatsoever for them) and we can lynch him assuming you are trusting my claim (I'm hoping you are).
Possibility 2: I get killed. You have now absolute confirmation from my flip to trust what I have said about my role, reads and actions, so don't waste it; barring any other scumslips that might yet happen it's probably best to lynch Solohan50 in this situation.
Possibility 3: Someone else than me gets killed. I don't deem this scenario particularly likely but I'm listing it here anyway. In this case, I'm open for Day 3 discussion (Maybe not in full swing because I'm celebrating easter with my family, but I'll manage to participate in the game nonetheless).
My thoughts on other people
HiroPro
As I once said (+ Show Spoiler [another wall of text] +
On April 04 2012 09:50 KharadBanar wrote:
Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 08:53 Kohbee wrote:
Who I would like to hear from
KB - opinions on solohan, hiropro and marvel
Now that's getting somewhere. Nice to see you actually putting some effort into coordinating people My opinions for you, sir:I honestly haven't thought all that much about HiroPro yet, but after some reading he sounds like someone who puts a good amount of quality control into his posts and only contributes if there is something sensible/new to say, which I at times missed among other participants of this game, but his self-limitation goes not too far into the luking direction, so there's definitely some town vibes in there. Also appreciates some of my posting, but that's no towntell but a personal matter On marvellosity I have a null read overall, the reason for this being that he doesn't behave like obvious scum (obvious scum being lurking, posting bad reads etc.) but not like obvious town either. If he happens to be scum, my gut instinct would suspect his buddy to be you, because he basically saved you in the Great Voting Craze™ by putting Therapist up one vote. This doesn't make him scum automatically though because I had basically exactly the same thought processes up to this point, believing Therapist to be one of the most scummy persons around. (And I'm a townie, right? ) My view on Solohan50 has not changed since the last time I wrote about it. Reading his filter (which is easy, since it's the shortest of all) I found his case on you less than compelling to say the least (It centers on your vote cast in the very beginning of the game). Add to that the fact that he refused to take the vote off of you in the Great Voting Craze™ and it could well be that there's a scum member wanting to finish a blue somewhere in there. Either that, or he's a very zealous townie which could backfire in other lynch votes later on. The only case I'm really excluding from my considerations there is that you are both scum, because he could have easily changed his vote around during that mess and therefore made sure to get a townie with it. This was however worked out by FourFace before, I just now caught that while re-reading the thread.
Show nested quote +On April 02 2012 21:57 FourFace wrote:
7-10 minutes before the lynch my brain worked out this genuinely true piece of information judging by the constellation of the votes:
Kohbee&Solohan50
Kohbee&strongandbig
Kohbee&Therapist
.. can't possibly be THE scumpair.
This means that you actually have a slight town read in my book, believe it or not. However, nothing is confirmed just yet and all my opinions are subject to change if someone objects in an eloquent and non-scummy manner. tl;dr: ##Vote: Solohan50P.S.After finishing up this tremendous wall of text, I would invite omnomMuffins along to join our discussion as it finally has gotten the chance to get a little more civilised and the chance to get hit by randomly flying accusations has slightly lowered.
strongandbig
I never saw anything flawed within your argumentations, I have however sometimes disagreed with your priorities, e.g. lynching Kohbee on Day 2 over Solohan50. However, in that case you didn't have the information I had and it's completely understandable for me that you acted how you acted. Overall, quite town to me.
omnomMuffins
I never had an overly strong read on him, sometimes he didn't make as much sense as I would have hoped (the Eternal Flame Wars Extended Edition) but he did give an acceptable apology and getting upset on a forum isn't exactly what I would call scummy. Read evaluation: Town-ish.
marvellosity
My gut instinct was all over the place on him at different times. The only noteworthy "read" I'm getting is not from marvellosity's filter, but rather from Kohbee (+ Show Spoiler [here] +
On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote:Sleep over, Deep breath, Logic time. Let’s go. Strong and OmnomI would like for both of you to reconsider your vote on me instead of Solohan50. Strong, I read your case on me and responded to it. I will reiterate some key points that I believe refute what you think are scum tells. Me telling therapist that I wouldn't talk to him was not me stifling discussion, I simply wanted Hiropro to answer for himself. Also, you act like I wanted a bandwagon on Hiropro but I never told anyone to vote for him or even asked others opinions on him. I presented a 1 sentence case based on his 2 sentences in the thread and waited for a response. Your second point basically boils down to you believing that a cop would not play the way I have. I don't know how many games of forum mafia you have played, but you will quickly find out that you can never depend on people to play as you would (in any role) and you can almost never depend on them to play "right". Omnom, your vote on me is (imo) mostly based off the "fight" we had in the thread for a few hours/days. I think we both got emotionally heated and ended up voting for one another based off this. I ask you to not make the same mistake twice (I call it a mistake because I know I am town) by voting for 2 townies based off you being mad at them for being assholes. I know that you think I am annoying and abrasive, tbh I don't care that you think that. I will answer any direct questions from now on but I will no longer post as I have previously as I don't need reactions anymore, I have found the scum team. However, if you vote for solohan, regardless of outcome it will completely shut me up. If he flips town, I will take responsibility, post my apologies, and take my impending lynch. When he flips scum, I will high five myself, then vote marvel tomorrow without any argumentation.
I believe that you two and Hiropro and KB are our remaining town. If you do not see the logic in KB's and my own case against Solohan today I ask that you please believe me and him upon my flip. Solohan is scum. Marvel is scum. Omnom, I wanted to lynch you and I saw you townslip hard. This post + Show Spoiler +
On April 03 2012 09:47 omnomMuffins wrote:
EBWOP: Wait, we don't have the confirmed set? I thought it was 2 mafia, one godfather, the other role blocker, and a cop and a medic?
Time to read the OP more closely.
seems genuine. I overlooked this when I thought you were scum because I was being stupid and not as logical as I should have been. Strong has been open with everything he has done. He doesn't seem to have any hidden motive and is more than willing to share his opinions. He does this is a genuine manner and there doesn't seem to be any hesitation or contradiction in his play. If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical.
Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum?Well thats pretty simple. Marvel's day 1 was bad (as he admitted) but he covered it by saving a blue to lynch a townie. The funny thing about Marvel's play is that he is literally never willing to accept responsibility for anything he does. Every decision he makes is laced with an out for him + Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote:
EBWOP: I still think Therapist. is townie, but I think the chance he's mafia is a bit higher right now than Kohbee.
On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote:
If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast.
##Vote: Kohbee
In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote:
Bah.
Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment.
If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself.
So we should know at the end of the night what is what.
and then continues with the same WIFOM argument the next day. He also says that he has 2 scum reads, but only posts reads on me. + Show Spoiler +
On April 03 2012 23:24 marvellosity wrote:
At the moment, I have two possible scum reads, one expected, one perhaps not - but I'd like to start with Kohbee, the expected.
(if you read his filter you can see he has only posted about me since this post). This was almost 24 hours ago and still no second read. This is a HUGE scum tell to promise something and then not come through with it. He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is.
+ Show Spoiler +If I don't see either Strong or Omnom respond to this I will repost on the next page and so on until they do
On April 05 2012 10:25 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 09:50 KharadBanar wrote:
Which means I'm going to explain my town read on him later on (there's a reason for this, trust me guys :O)
If it has to do with your reads on other players who are still alive, then I may share the same interpretation, but be relating it to Kohbee's situation in a different way from you. I think I may know what you're referring to, though. Anyway, what I'd like to bring people's attention to are the following posts: From Marvellosity: + Show Spoiler +
On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote:
Sigh. You're so aggressive. You mentioned him in a couple of other posts too, looking at your filter.
You've pointed fingers at almost everybody in the game. Almost your whole filter reads to me as creating a bad town atmosphere (various OMGUS, attacks, etc). You've sown confusion where there didn't have to be any, pointed fingers, and with your arguments with Fourface and omnom totally derailed town discussion. You roleclaimed blue in a terrible fashion for town; this could be scummy play or bad townie play, but together with the rest of your posts clearly leans towards a desperate scum move.
The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me).
Of secondary consideration here is the large amount of information we get from a Kohbee lynch. As Fourface handily pointed out earlier, we can already eliminate several Kohbee + someone else combinations. If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast.
Kohbee is scum and people should vote for him.
##Vote: Kohbee
From solohan50: + Show Spoiler +
On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote:
KB, since you're the second person to say that my case against Kohbee doesn't make sense, I'll try rephrasing it to see if it helps get my point across. If not, then perhaps I'm incorrect and need to rethink my position. The reasons I think that Kohbee is the most logical Mafia pick are the following:
- He was the #1 suspect on Day 1 (he was up two votes, 4-2, until the roleclaim).
- One of his loud critics, Therapist, was mis-lynched because of the last minute roleclaim. Since Therapist was the second choice for the Day 1 lynch (behind Kohbee), the roleclaim was a good way to spread confusion and get the second choice lynched.
- Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more.
The reason I seem to focus on Kohbee so much is that he's the only read that I really have right now. I've posted what I've gleaned from other players, but mostly I've just been able to find people that I'm relatively certain are town (like KB). I'm also well aware that my single-mindedness may come around and bite me. If I was worried about that, I would've jumped on the Therapist bandwagon like everyone else, especially when it was clear that Kohbee was going to live. I even reaffirmed my choice despite the risk near the end of the vote, because I believe that Kohbee has the strongest chance of being Mafia.
Obviously my reads have been a bit screwy this game. I think that I was expecting other players to play in a certain style, and clearly they weren't. However, my strongest remaining read comes from my gut: it's no coincidence that these two posts both make the argument that fourface's death was because he was in a fight with Kohbee. (They're also pretty long posts by people who don't make very long posts very often). I know we can't vote at night, but if we could, I would be voting for solohan50. Maybe I'm posting this now in case I get killed; or maybe I don't believe what I'm saying at all, and I'm posting something I think is wrong to trick mafia into not killing me. You decide.
This post was written during the first four hours of Night 2, 2:30 AM to 5:30 AM local time. If you stayed with me through this, props to you.
This is me done for the night and chances are that I'm also done for the game with this. If so, give 'em hell town! |
| | There's no such thing as a free lynch. |
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Radfield  Canada. April 06 2012 09:01. Posts 2680 | Profile # |
Day 3![[image loading]](http://sprocketink.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/go_to_jail.jpg)
The hunched figure sat in his desk, contemplating the ruddy steel key in front of him. For some, this key had no significance, no meaning. But for him it was life. Working nights as 'security' for the zoo was only a cover, one which allowed him to follow his true path. Incapacitate, Transport, Jail, Interrogate, Release... Contact the authorities if necessary. Sometimes it was for their own protection, sometimes not. Some would call it unjust, some would call it insane, but it got results.
KharadBanar stood from his desk and pocketed the key. Tonight would be different. Tonight KharadBanar knew his target, and knew what it meant to jail him for the night. When no new dead body turned up on the morrow, his theory would be proven and the killer revealed. From there on out the authorities could deal with it.
Gravel crunched underfoot as he passed through the zoo, but a sudden faint whoosh, and a sharp pain in his neck made his head turn, tazer at the ready. A silhouetted figure stood there, backlit by the light of a distance security lamp.
"I figured you'd search me out eventually" He said, " So I felt it prudent to search you out first"
KharadBanar started to respond, but his tongue felt thick and heavy in his mouth. As his hand brushed the dart at his neck and tugged it out, his knees gave way. The last thing he felt was being dragged across the gravel, and finally *splash*.... darkness.
KharadBanar, the Jailkeeper has been eaten by Sharks!
With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.
Day ends in 48 hours, at 9PM ADT[local] Saturday Night.
This is LYLO! |
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| KharadBanar Austria. April 06 2012 09:02. Posts 429 | Profile # | |
| | There's no such thing as a free lynch. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. April 06 2012 09:06. Posts 11296 | Profile # |
| gg KB, thanks for the post |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. April 06 2012 09:10. Posts 11296 | Profile # |
| Lol, I know Radfield's post was written without seeing KB's, but in chronological order Radfield's post basically says Solohan is scum. |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| HiroPro United States. April 06 2012 09:41. Posts 2150 | Profile # |
Solohan is almost definitely scum. If you don't believe this, read Kharad's posts, read the post I made at night, read Kohbee's last alive post.
##Vote: Solohan50 |
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| omnomMuffins United States. April 06 2012 10:23. Posts 217 | Profile # |
Thank you KB for such an amazing will.
The only problem I have with voting for Solohan now is that we know that he was jailed last night. This means that if he is mafia, that means that he is not a killer, and not the biggest threat out there.
Which means it is one of the rest of us.
Marvel, S&B, myself and HiroPro are the ones to be looking at today.
The safe vote is for Solohan, but if we want to get the killer, he is not the man. |
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| omnomMuffins United States. April 06 2012 10:24. Posts 217 | Profile # |
| ##side note, heading into the strip in a few minutes, will be able to post short notes and read while at IPL parties, but please don't expect anything long because my phone has a sucky keyboard and it pisses me off. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. April 06 2012 10:33. Posts 11296 | Profile # |
On April 06 2012 10:23 omnomMuffins wrote:
Thank you KB for such an amazing will.
The only problem I have with voting for Solohan now is that we know that he was jailed last night. This means that if he is mafia, that means that he is not a killer, and not the biggest threat out there.
Which means it is one of the rest of us.
Marvel, S&B, myself and HiroPro are the ones to be looking at today.
The safe vote is for Solohan, but if we want to get the killer, he is not the man.
I read the Q&A on this earlier because KB's post confused me as I thought either mafia could hit, but it's only the goon.
I don't know if it's what you're getting at, but if the goon is killed then the Roleblocker performs mafia kills instead.
I would like to say - we are not after the mafia killer. We are simply after mafia.
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| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| strongandbig United States. April 06 2012 10:44. Posts 3194 | Profile Blog # |
Okay that took me totally by surprise. I thought KB was town but I actually thought someone else was the second blue.
That was some really fucking impressive foresight by KB. I did think he might get killed since people were saying he was town, but people have said that about myself, and hiropro as well.
So! I've had a few beers at the moment, so I won't be posting much analysis tonight. I also need to think some more about what this means for us as a town. |
| | [QUOTE][B]On March 20 2013 14:51 WaveofShadow wrote:[/B] I don't know much about Coag, but he doesn't seem like the type of guy who goes against the grain just for kicks. [/QUOTE] |
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| strongandbig United States. April 06 2012 22:37. Posts 3194 | Profile Blog # | |
| | [QUOTE][B]On March 20 2013 14:51 WaveofShadow wrote:[/B] I don't know much about Coag, but he doesn't seem like the type of guy who goes against the grain just for kicks. [/QUOTE] |
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| Radfield Canada. April 06 2012 23:43. Posts 2680 | Profile # |
Current Vote Count
Solohan50(2) : Hiropro, strongandbig
Not Voting: Solohan50, Marvellosity, omnommuffins
Voting Ends in apprx 33 hours. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. April 07 2012 00:37. Posts 11296 | Profile # |
Ok. So it seems fairly clear that Solohan is getting lynched this Day cycle unless something very odd happens. So we should try to make our time as productive as possible.
A wise man said to me - a scum's aim is simply to appear as town, whereas a townie's aim is to scumhunt. Which of these takes more effort? Scumhunting. Taking that in mind, I'm left with looking at s&b, Hiro, and omnom. I have fairly strong town reads on s&b (if you are mafia, well played sir). So that leaves Hiro and omnom. I've read both their filters multiple times this afternoon, and I'm ready to take some action. With that in mind, I would like to put forward a case against HiroPro.
The gist of this case will be that Hiro has not attempted to scumhunt, NOR taken any firm stances.
On April 02 2012 03:22 HiroPro wrote:
Of omnomMuffins and marvellosity, omnomMuffins has contributed almost nothing, while marvellosity has identified a possible scumslip by strongandbig.
##Vote: omnomMuffins
First we have the vote for omnom, based on the fact he's lurking. Even though we know omnom had a reason to be lurking (it was given). I'd also like to point out omnom's filter is in fact twice as long as Hiro's.
Hiro then goes on to vote for Solohan and Therapist. in succession. Fair enough, it's Day 1. Let's see Hiro bust out some firm stances and opinions shall we?
On April 03 2012 05:43 HiroPro wrote:
Fourface - I don't like the mass claim idea. Scum can find out jailer/doctor, while town gains absolutely nothing, especially considering that we are not even sure of what roles exist.
Marvelosity, you said that you had no idea who to vote for. 1)I don't believe that at all. If you didn't know, there was no way you would have switched votes right when it mattered the most. What are your reads?
2)Omnomnom is scummy as hell, but I think everyone knows that. And nothing that Kohbee and solohan have said today has made any sense. Kohbee ignores what other people say, while it doesn't look like solohan represented anything that happened the first day correctly. 3)Both of them are possible scum (obviously only one of them can be scum for the reason that FourFace posted).
1) is probably just lack of thread reading, but I was unvoted at the time, it wasn't a switch. 2 and 3 are more interesting though.
2) Everyone knows omnom is scummy as hell? Because at the start of the game he posted little with due explanation and he voted for a disruptive Fourface? So far you made a ONE LINE case against omnom "illogical vote on fourface" and that's it.
3) Excellent! Both are possible scum. Let's cast suspicion in various directions without making any sort of case or taking any sort of stance. What do you THINK?
On April 04 2012 09:28 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 08:50 marvellosity wrote:
Hiro, could you please outline your case on omnom a little more? I find he has less negative points than Kohbee does.
The biggest thing against omnom for me is that he seems to not care about actually looking for scum. The quotes are from omnom's posts arguing against FourFace and Kohbee.
Seems ironic. Looking at omnom's filter, at least he made a firm stance on Kohbee. He also made some sort of case on him (which Hiro has yet to do against anyone). Let's not forget guys, being WRONG on something is not a scumtrait. It's the motivation behind it we have to look at. Mafia have more information than town, remember, so it's easier for them not to be wrong.
None of Hiro's posts have had any real substance whatsoever.
Hiro has casted doubts upon almost everyone in the game, without ever making a case against someone or scumhunting.
Seems like scum.
Town? Discuss. |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| omnomMuffins United States. April 07 2012 01:40. Posts 217 | Profile # |
Marv, ty for clarification on if the roleblocker could kill. I had only really played RL mafia with cards, so no roleblockers involved. If that is the case then
##vote: solohan50
For some reason my phone won't let me make it bold. |
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| strongandbig United States. April 07 2012 07:30. Posts 3194 | Profile Blog # |
Let me post a few thoughts now.
First, we should lynch solohan. If it were just me, then I wouldn't be 100% confident in my read of him as scummy. However, since Kohbee did flip blue and was so confident in his read, and since there are some pretty good arguments other than just "he feels scummy" for him being scum, I'm going to stick with that vote.
We need to get a successful lynch. If we do that, then after the night kill tonight it will be LYLO again at 2 town 1 mafia, but at least the remaining town will have one more night's worth of data to identify the last mafia.
The only thing that worries me is the Monty Hall problem. We know that solohan is not the mafia goon. This means that from a purely statistical point of view, he has only a 25% chance of being mafia whereas for the rest of us there is a 40% chance of being mafia. (I know this sounds like a paradox, but it's not. It's a classic high school math team problem, google monty hall paradox for more.)
However, I still think we should lynch him. Mafia isn't a game of hoping to get lucky; it's a game of making reads and educated guesses. It seems like our collective best educated guess is that solohan is mafia.
So my current thinking for who is the second mafia.
First, we have the question of the day 1 lynch. As I said waay back in the thread (it was in my "if kohbee flips town" analysis post), I don't think that mafia could give up the chance for a completely free lynch of someone who just claimed a blue role, especially on day 1. However, in my opinion that chance was only open to FourFace and Hiropro. Either of those two could have kept their vote on kohbee and allowed him to die, then claimed they were afk for the hour between his last-minute claim and the voting deadline. So I don't think that hiro is scum.
Additionally, on day 2 hiro voted for solohan instead of kohbee, which made it a 4-3 vote instead of a 5-2 vote. If we believe solohan is actually mafia, then this makes no sense - it would allow one last-minute switch to lynch the other mafia member instead of the claimed cop. So I agree with kohbee's last post, if solohan is mafia it doesn't make sense for hiropro to be the other mafia.
That said, I actually thought up until the death of KB that hiro was the second blue role. His play on day 1 in response to the accusation from kohbee seemed more passive than I would have expected from a vanilla townie. His posting hasn't been all that town-ey, as pointed out by marvellosity - hiro hasn't done much to scum hunt. However, his voting record is enough to clear him, IMO. As I've said before, I'm more comfortable at the moment analyzing actions rather than words.
So that leaves omnommuffins and marvellosity.
omnom's posts were pretty aggressive towards kohbee. However, they were no more aggressive than mine, and IMO they could easily be explained as coming from someone who had just had a hard day and then had to deal with the kohbee vs fourface flame war of death.
However, I find it a bit suspicious that omnom tried to get us to find and lynch the "mafia killer" instead of solohan. I feel like someone who's played so much IRL mafia would know that the mafia always get a kill, even if they have other roles. (Unless she's claiming that in her irl mafia games the mafia doctor or cop don't get to kill anyone if they're the only person left, which I would think would be a really odd rule for a game of mafia.) And also, it should be super-obvious that we need to make the clearest lynch no matter what, since this is LYLO; so anyone saying we shouldn't lynch the most probable mafia is pretty suspicious.
Marvellosity, on the other hand, has a couple of major points against him imo: first, his flip-floppy voting on day 1, and second, the multiple times he's tried to tell us how we should interpret the mafia's night kills. (Specifically, I'm referring here to the posts of mine and Kohbee's that were quoted by KB in his last will and testament.)
So for now I think that the most likely candidate for second mafia, assuming we decide to lynch solohan (which I I think we should) and that he flips red (which I think he will), would be marvellosity.
However, I'm not confident enough in that read to feel like I have the thing sewn up. Marvellosity posted his case against hiropro just above; I'd like to see a response to it from hiropro.
I'd also like to hear what everyone else thinks about who the mafia might be, and about what everyone has said so far.
Basically, we could just gamble on what we have and go for it, but more information would be better! Let's get our posting on, people! |
| | [QUOTE][B]On March 20 2013 14:51 WaveofShadow wrote:[/B] I don't know much about Coag, but he doesn't seem like the type of guy who goes against the grain just for kicks. [/QUOTE] |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. April 07 2012 07:53. Posts 11296 | Profile # |
On April 07 2012 07:30 strongandbig wrote:
First, we have the question of the day 1 lynch. As I said waay back in the thread (it was in my "if kohbee flips town" analysis post), I don't think that mafia could give up the chance for a completely free lynch of someone who just claimed a blue role, especially on day 1. However, in my opinion that chance was only open to FourFace and Hiropro. Either of those two could have kept their vote on kohbee and allowed him to die, then claimed they were afk for the hour between his last-minute claim and the voting deadline. So I don't think that hiro is scum.
You could at least be consistent with your argument. Kohbee was leading 4-2 when hiro moved his vote from solohan (who you agree is scum) to therapist - 4-3.
Then I, yes, me, cast my vote on therapist to make the vote equal at 4-4, before Fourface removed his kohbee vote to cast his vote on me to leave it at 4-3 to therapist.
So it was 4-3 to Kohbee with 10 minutes to the lynch when I voted. And I would vote for Therapist?
How does that line up with your completely freeblue lynch that scum wouldn't pass up? |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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