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| Xatalos Finland. April 17 2012 06:55. Posts 890 | Profile # |
I'm fine with lynching either HiroPro or Dittert. But I'm not fine with 50% votes on me, 25% on HiroPro and 25% on Dittert  |
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| funcmode Australia. April 17 2012 06:58. Posts 680 | Profile # |
OK this case against HiroPro and by extension Dittert and after that most likely imallinson definitely has some merit.
Here's another post from imallinson that seems to soft-defend both Hiro and Dittert -
Show nested quote +I might even be somewhat inclined to vote for HiroPro instead of Dittert or yomi, but with this current situation of me/Dittert stalemate, I'm still going to keep my vote on Dittert (he has an infinitely higher chance of being Mafia than myself, after all...).
##FOS: HiroPro
- I think Xatalos wrote the above quote - So we start with some good ol' OMGUS with absolutely no reasoning to back it up. Xatalos you might be 100% sure you are town but no one else is and you can't use it as reasoning in your arguments.
It also seems to strengthen my opinion on imallinson being quite suspicious.
However, the fact is, we've only flipped two townies so far, so while there's a general consensus of who's likely scum and who's likely town, we still don't really have anything truly solid to back it up. I'm really close to switching my vote to HiroPro, but I'm not going to do it just yet. I think Xatalos has done a good job defending himself given the circumstances, and Dittert has largely dropped off the radar since his name has been cleared some by Xatalos taking the heat.
I really hope Hiro can get a post in soon. I'd hate to lynch Xatalos and end up being wrong about it. Can anyone who's now voted for Hiro say anything that might convince me to do the same? If Hiro is scum, then Xatalos is most likely town, but what's your opinion, is he just noob-town that got too aggressive?
And no offence Xatalos, right now I still suspect you a fair bit so your own words might not have a huge amount of sway with me right now. You seem to be talking a lot of sense right now though, for what that's worth. |
| | @funcmode - TPW Mapmaking Team - theplanetaryworkshop.com |
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| yomi United States. April 17 2012 07:01. Posts 772 | Profile Blog # |
| I am pretty much exactly where you are func. Really want to head out and lift but I have to make a decision before I go. |
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| Xatalos Finland. April 17 2012 07:02. Posts 890 | Profile # |
Well, I hope Acrofales or KharadBanar can convince you.
Right now it looks like 2 more votes are needed to HiroPro. With my current theory, funcmode, yomi and vonKlaust are town. So 2 out of the 3 of you need to vote for HiroPro... (one hour left) |
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| Acrofales Brazil. April 17 2012 07:06. Posts 5188 | Profile # |
I think it's time for one of the now infamous Acrofales CASES.
It'll be brief, because HiroPro's filter is really really short. I have not been particularly impressed by his play all game, as you could have read here, here or here.
At this point I had settled on HiroPro probably just being bad town. However, the problem with bad town is that it can equally well be explained by mafia. I was willing to give Hiro the benefit of the doubt, because 1. it's a newbie game and 2. chances of being scum are smaller than those of being town. However, I am no longer so sure. All the behaviour I explained away as bad town can also be a mafia throwing blame around until it sticks somewhere. First he tries Xatalos, because of a bad case. Then he tries vonKlaust.
What really struck me in this case was the following discussion:
+ Show Spoiler [HiroPro-vonKlaust discussion] +
On April 13 2012 07:40 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 07:32 vonKlaust wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote:Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about: + Show Spoiler +
On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote:
Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.
Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.
This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts?
On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote:
Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works.
Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie?
On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote:
I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt.
I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it.
HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking.
I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect.
That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going?
##Vote: vonKlaust
I just made a post about me acting indecisive and unproductive in the beginning of the game. While I'm sure it won't give you much comfort, since I basically agree that was the case, but that is the plain truth. You can find it here: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14321898
This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts?
You're really for jumping to conclussions aren't you? What I meant was exactly what i said:
I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden.
To me, it seems more likely for a newbie mafia to write about blue roles than for a newbie blue. I wrote this to combat a possible argument against him being scum. How is this indecisive with what at the time were my suspicions? I basically agreed with what you were saying. Wouldn't that make you more of a scumslipper than me?
That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going?
The fact that I called Dittert out as a confused townie don't have anything to do with that I felt very confused in the beginning of the game, except for the fact that I can understand how he would feel as a confused townie. Ofc I can have you as my prime suspect even though I(probably wrongly) supported your case against ArticFox. I can't see how you think that is wierd. At the time I didn't have anything on you, and I thought your claims were reasonable. Now, I have something on you, and I no longer think your claims were reasonable. See? And as I wrote in my post about you being my prime suspect: No, you're not my only suspect. I also pointed out HiroPro as someone I think is playing in a way which is very negative for town, which makes me suspect him. And also, as you would see if you would actually read my posts, my suspicions against you have nothing to do with your actual case against ArticFox. It was the fact that you tried to justify your case on other grounds than it being a good case. Also, I think that I have actually started to be much more productive than earlier. I'm getting more used to this, and now there is more to go on. I am the first to agree with that I wasn't very productive before.
This is so contradictory. Why on earth would you support the case of the person who you most believe to be mafia???
On April 13 2012 07:57 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +
What actually happened:
1. Xatalos made a case.
2. I supported the case.
3. I no longer supported the case.
4. I started to susspect Xatalos.
Alright, I see this. But if Xatalos is your main suspect, I'm still wondering why you never voted for him.
Show nested quote +
And by the way:
First you voted Xatalos.
Later you wrote:
Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious).
Then, without ever writing anything about that you're starting to doubt your suspicions or anything along those lines:
##Unvote: Xatalos
##Vote: vonKlaust
Isn't this exactly what you're accusing me of?
1. Xatalos makes bad case. 2. I vote for Xatalos. 3. Broodking asks why I'm "bandwagoning Xatalos" (lololol) 4. I respond 5. Xatalos makes good case. 6. I trust Xatalos more and see similar suspicious behavior as Xatalos does in vonKaust. I vote for vonKlaust.
On April 13 2012 08:03 HiroPro wrote:
Because the reason for me suspecting him was his bad case.....
Obviously if he posts an actual good case, he doesn't appear as mafia to me.
And the case against you has merit. I would also still like to know why you never voted for Xatalos if he was your strongest mafia read.
And the bad logic coverup. It is really a shame vonKlaust didn't follow up very hard on this and it got lost in the willz caseHowever, we still have this gem:
On April 13 2012 08:24 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 08:19 vonKlaust wrote:
I voted for HiroPro because he started to switch around the casuality. And his inconcistancy on changing suspects. On the matter of casuality he claimed:
1. I suspected Xatalos
2. I supported his case.
What actually happened:
1. Xatalos made a case.
2. I supported the case.
3. I no longer supported the case.
4. I started to susspect Xatalos.
As I wrote before, I can agree with that what he wrote isn't totally inconcistant, it's still wierd.
I'm not trying to misrepresent what you said. I read your posts from the ones that Xatalos quoted (there was one post in which you said that you agreed with the case against ArticFox and another post that said that Xatalos was your biggest scum read) and assumed that they were all around the same time. That was my mistake.
On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote:HiroPro, you really need to post more. Right now you're just a huge question mark to me, which is worse than if I had at least a neutral read on you. Your case against me also seems pretty half-hearted at best... I can't say if you're serious or just making a weak fake pressure. In any case, your play so far has been anti-town and unproductive. I just need to see something more from you before coming to conclusions. I went through every player's filters and rearranged my preferences for lynching. At the moment I'm willing to unvote ArcticFox and see more from him before a lynch. There are a couple of reasons for this: A) His later posts have actually been useful and contributive. B) I must admit my original case on him wasn't as strong as I first thought it was... It lacked sufficient cold facts (except the policy lynch talk) and was more based on intuition than logic. Still, I don't regret voting for him, as this case pushed the discussion forward and revealed a lot of opinions. I'm not saying it was just a calculated pressure, but partly so. C) Some of the most pro-town players, in my opinion, have also defended him (such as Acrofales and Willz). So, who to vote for if not ArcticFox? I agree with BroodKing's case on vonKlaust and imallinson's case on trumpetarn. Either of them would be good lynches. Acrofales made a good case against Dittert and yomi, and I'd be willing to lynch either of them, but neither of them has posted much yet (same as HiroPro). Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about:
Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote:
Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.
Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.
This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts?
Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote:
Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works.
Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie?
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote:
I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt.
I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it.
HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking.
I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect.
That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? ##Unvote
##Vote: vonKlaustI also definitely want HiroPro, Dittert, yomi and trumpetarn to post more. If you are town, there is nothing to lose by being active, and everything to lose by being inactive.
There are 3 posts by vonKlaust quoted here. In none of these does vonKlaust actually mention the ArcticFox case, OR vonKlaust's suspicion of Xatalos. Xatalos's case was based on a completely different basis. This means that HiroPro DID dive into vonKlaust's filter. It is, once again, either exceptionally bad play or wilfull misrepresentation of vonKlaust. Misrepresentation is one of the worst scumtells in the game (or so I have been told by Bugs, who I trust on mafia matters).
Conclusion, Hiro is either playing negligently badly here, or he is willfully misrepresenting vonKlaust in the hope of making it stick. The reason I thought he could be town is because when his case had been destroyed, he was willing to kiss and make up. However, there's no reason a scumbag would want to be stuck tunneling on a case nobody believes. Especially when he realises that he has screwed it up pretty badly (as he clearly realised: we see that from the backpeddling and excusing himself).
He then lurks a bit until he can bandwagon on BroodKing. He NEVER takes a stance on Willz vs. Yomi, conveniently coming back from class after BroodKing has derped. Note the timing on the posts. He comes back from class in time to vote, but after it makes no difference anymore. It could of course be a complete coincidence, but it could also be a lurker coming out of hiding in order to vote and not get modkilled.
The only thing of use in his filter is the case on Xatalos, which I don't really have time to analyse right now. I need to post this in time to convince town that HiroPro is scum. Know at the very least, that even if the case is not misrepresenting Xatalos and is completely honest, the Dittert-HiroPro connection is pretty strong. Here are their mutual soft defenses:
+ Show Spoiler [Hiro-Dittert defenses] +
On April 13 2012 06:49 HiroPro wrote:Dittert's posting is not that of mafia. He made a silly suggestion and then backed off it, much more indicative of inexperienced town.
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote:
Please tell me who you think is scummy and why?
Read better.
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Hiro has offered nothing substantial as well, bandwagoning on the suspicions of Xatalos.
Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious).
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 06:47 BroodKingEXE wrote:
On April 13 2012 06:44 willz22912 wrote:
On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote:
We have to be careful about releasing scumlists though, as they give the mafia can use them to guide their KP.
What do you mean by this? The idea of sharing scumlists is to build a consensus among town to reach a majority to successfully lynch someone. If multiple people think someone is scummy, there is a reason, and should be shared, even if it's misguided or incorrect because it builds/causes discussion.
Mafia look at the scum lists and figure out who has the best sense of who they are. They then kill them
This is beyond dumb. Why would mafia kill people who appear scummy. That does not hurt town in any way. If anything it helps town, by narrowing down possible people to lynch.
On April 13 2012 06:54 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 06:49 Acrofales wrote:
I think all our scum lists are quite similar at the moment. I have dittert as a scumspect and am not as suspicious of trumpetarm: I find dittert's few posts more suspect than trumpetarm's, who seems to at least be trying to contribute.
Why do you say that trumpetarm's post contribute more than dittert's? All he's said was that the pressure votes were useless and that Xatalos may be town or sneaky mafia.
On April 13 2012 08:20 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 08:09 BroodKingEXE wrote:
On April 13 2012 07:57 HiroPro wrote:
What actually happened:
1. Xatalos made a case.
2. I supported the case.
3. I no longer supported the case.
4. I started to susspect Xatalos.
Alright, I see this. But if Xatalos is your main suspect, I'm still wondering why you never voted for him.
And by the way:
First you voted Xatalos.
Later you wrote:
Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious).
Then, without ever writing anything about that you're starting to doubt your suspicions or anything along those lines:
##Unvote: Xatalos
##Vote: vonKlaust
Isn't this exactly what you're accusing me of?
1. Xatalos makes bad case. 2. I vote for Xatalos. 3. Broodking asks why I'm "bandwagoning Xatalos" (lololol) 4. I respond 5. Xatalos makes good case. 6. I trust Xatalos more and see similar suspicious behavior as Xatalos does in vonKaust. I vote for vonKlaust.
The problem I have with your case against Xatalos was that Xatalos never had the bandwagon to begin with. People saw it as pretty useless information after they reread it, and it was pretty much dead from there. I viewed it as pure misguided case, I am wondering what made it different for you? What makes you think that Xatalos is more scummy than Dittert per say?
Obviously I don't still view Xatalos as a mafia read. The reason why I first thought that Xatalos was more scummy in comparison to people like Dittert, was that Xatalos was an experienced player; it seemed unlikely that he would make a bad case like that. This is Dittert's first game; I would expect him to say something silly early on (RNG voting). Since then he hasn't yet posted much; so I can't really give much of a view on Dittert.
On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote:
Willz - I agree with his logic about trumpetarm/dittert having similar posting early on, silly to differentiate between them. Seemed very logical about the dispute between myself and vonKlaust. kind of defensive about dittert's vote on him (seems overly bothered that someone might tunnel him), (especially considering that no one else seems to agree with Dittert's general reads/ideas). I like the fact that he was against broodking's idea of concealing scum reads. When it looked like he was going to be lynched though instead of seeming defensive, he was much more helpful for town (posting his general reads and talking about targets after he flips green)
Overall, I have a null read on willz; I don't like how he was so defensive about Dittert's vote on him (and the general weird interaction with him saying I'm just trying to help Dittert out), but at the same time he does post his opinions on other people and he has a general town demeanor by focusing on making/responding to cases.
BroodKingEXE - Early on spent a lot of time discussing policy - not much to read into him from that portion of the day. Makes a vote on Dittert without much of a case (based on Dittert voting for lurkers, not really something that is overly scummy). Argument about hiding scum reads very anti-town in my opinion; without sharing those reads, town cannot make good votes. Don't really understand why he wanted to consolidate voting so early. Unvotes Dittert when Dittert starts posting again. Votes for willz saying that he is trying to shoot down other people's posts and is denying open discussion (very strange in my opinion because BroodKing himself posted something similar saying that people should not give out scum reads because mafia might kill them). Voting for yomi because he says he doesn't want mafia to switch and swing the vote (even though he says that he believes willz is more likely to be scum).
Scum read on BroodKing overall - I don't like the posts where he says not to share scum reads. The vote and case on willz is very strange, since a lot of the things he accusses willz of are similar to what BroodKing himself has been doing, and I don't really understand the vote switch onto yomi - to me it seems more like BroodKing was worried that willz was looking townie to other people and thus switched to a new target.
yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion.
##Vote: BroodKingEXE
Yeah, I know the last one is stretching it, but included for the sake of completeness
On April 16 2012 15:17 Dittert wrote:Acro - Like I said before, I don't really have too much of an idea about who is the 3rd mafia. My best guess right now is Xatalos, mostly because of this lie/misdirect:
Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 07:12 Xatalos wrote:
I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia.
ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? He's also in here now completely shitting up the thread, drowning out what seems to be us on the right track. I'm curious to see why you're so suspicious of him as well. That being said, I could see it being one of these other people who are just not posting very much. I don't post that much, but I think by now most people can see my clear thought pattern since day one (okay, even if you don't think I'm thinking clearly, I'm at least being hyper-consistent). I read a lot of other people's filters and just kind of shrug.
My interpretation of ArcticFox's reads: shot at night, so maybe look into Yomi, Willz, imallison, Xatalos. Slight suspicion of HiroPro as a lurker. The last is also a pretty soft defense, but it could be Dittert trying to avoid suspicion of HiroPro
PS. On a completely unrelated sidenote, I am getting pretty damned good at BBCode. |
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| yomi United States. April 17 2012 07:07. Posts 772 | Profile Blog # |
It is really down to intuition at this point. Everyone thinks they are super logical and have great cases etc but even the BEST cases of the whole thread are still by an "academic" standpoint really weak. So in my experience playing the sc2 mod mafia are almost ALWAYS quiet. xat talks a lot. hiro is quiet
##Unvote
##vote: Hiropro
bye gg gl I hope when I come back we are winning |
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| willz22912 United States. April 17 2012 07:07. Posts 247 | Profile # |
I just got back from class, took a read through the thread. I'm willing to change my vote off Xatalos, I never really had a good reason to lynch him today other than fishing for information from his flip.
I've said before that I saw HiroPro as a little suspicious, he hasn't really contributed nearly as much as other people and seems to fly under the radar, the first time I took note of him was the case he posted against Xatalos D2 that got that bandwagon started.
I'm willing to admit that my read of Dittert as newb town can really be called into question now and that I may have been blinded by my willingness to see what I wanted to see based on the actions so far. I can see the connection between HiroPro and Dittert, and I'm beginning to question how townie a person would be for consistently tunneling one person all game.
However, since we can only lynch one person today, which is it going to be? Dittert or HiroPro seems to be the split. If Hiro flips red it gives a lot of weight to the assumptions that Dittert is red as well. I'm still hesitant to write off Dittert(I don't know, I've held onto this opinion all game of him being newbie town, I'd be really sad to be proven wrong) so I'd prefer to vote Hiro for now and let his flip decide what I think about Dittert. So accordingly:
##Unvote: Xatalos
##Vote: HiroPro
Finally, the main thing I think we need is information to either ferret out remaining scum or help clear suspicious town, this was the main reason I voted Xatalos, I felt like his flip would at least give a lot more information than a Dittert one. However with Acrofales connection reasoning, it could be possible Hiro/Dittert are both scum, but we need to lynch one of them to confirm, and Hiro flipping scum would incriminate Dittert more so than the other way around imo. |
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| Xatalos Finland. April 17 2012 07:07. Posts 890 | Profile # |
Actually Willz too. So 2/4 of you need to vote for HiroPro. Also, consider this:
- I flip Mafia: no connections (nobody has been defending me really)
- I flip town: stronger suspicions of HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson
- HiroPro flips Mafia: Dittert is almost certainly Mafia, imallinson too probably
- HiroPro flips town: uhh... well... whole theory crushed? |
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| KharadBanar Austria. April 17 2012 07:09. Posts 429 | Profile # |
Why I'm voting HiroPro
Well, first of all I want to emphasise that I was mainly "sheeping" Acrofales with that vote, because of his three-part analysis that seemed sound to me and proposed HiroPro as one of the possible lynch targets (but not Xatalos, whom I was voting at the time).
This is what Acrofales wrote about HiroPro's filter:
Acrofales wrote:
Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos.
Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection?
Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not.
Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks?
Soft defense of Dittert?
Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument.
Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy.
Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town.
Could still be very noob town.
Townometer: i
Scumometer: iiii
Also, IF Hiro should flip town, we then have a real suspect in Xatalos whom Hiro crusaded against today so vehemently.
And this is, in a relatively short explanation, why I am voting HiroPro. |
| | There's no such thing as a free lynch. |
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| KharadBanar Austria. April 17 2012 07:09. Posts 429 | Profile # |
| EBWOP: ROFL ninja'd by two guys voting HiroPro |
| | There's no such thing as a free lynch. |
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| KharadBanar Austria. April 17 2012 07:11. Posts 429 | Profile # |
| 2nd order EBWOP: The first post was referring to the post Xatalos made ("maybe I can convince yomi") |
| | There's no such thing as a free lynch. |
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| imallinson United Kingdom. April 17 2012 07:12. Posts 2054 | Profile Blog # |
I will start with Xatalos' defence / Hiro attack post.
Why Am I Town?
I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these:
- Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action)
- Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with)
- Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all)
- Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general)
Firstly he isn't the first to admit his faults, he continued them long after he was criticized for doing them. Most of this is set-up for the next part but I would like to add one more point. Spamming: He posted a lot of unnecessary and pointless rubbish which obfuscated any point he was trying to make and made him much harder to read.
But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation?
- Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie
- Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth
- Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention
- Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait
In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia).
There is an awful lot of WIFOMy reasoning here, assuming what mafia will do. His points about the tunnel vision and paranoia are reasonable. Add in the spamming which is definitely a scum trait because it serves as a distraction. So were half and half on scum town traits.
Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults?
- Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category
- Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end
- Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players
All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective?
This is where I think you start to redeem yourself. I still maintain that a lot of your activity has been helpful with a decent amount being downright unhelpful. However I can't argue with the fact that you have been transparent (maybe a bit too transparent) and you have been focussed very heavily on scum hunting which makes much more sense for you as town.
Onto your argument for Hiro.
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 08:17 HiroPro wrote:
I voted for Xatalos because the case he made was bad. The case he made after that was good and showed me that he was reading and thinking things through.
First of all, why would making a bad case be lynch-worthy? It's actually more likely for townies than Mafia to make bad cases, since Mafia have more information available (they know who are town and more easily see the townie perspective for posting things). So, HiroPro's case is actually pretty bad, which is hypocritical since he accuses me of posting a bad case. However, it doesn't look like he believed in his own case even himself, since when I posted a slightly better case he just unvoted immediately and jumped on the next possible bandwagon I had created. Funny, considering he later accused me of "throwing blame around and seeing where it sticks". Another hypocritical comment from him, seeing as he was himself searching for a bandwagon with enough support and not searching for Mafia. When it looked like the vonKlaust case wasn't getting support either, he quickly stepped off of it.
I thought at the time that Hiro's case against you was bad. But I figured it was just a bad argument early day 1 when there weren't any good arguments around. I also agree his voting Day 1 was quite bandwaggony. Especially in the case of jumping on super late to the BroodWaggon.
Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote:
yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion.
HiroPro defends Dittert and attacks yomi. Considering the possibility that HiroPro & Dittert are Mafia, this would make a lot of sense - diverting suspicion to yomi of the two "most suspicious players" at the time. HiroPro's hypocrisy comes through again: he claims yomi is scummy for "calling out people as Mafia without solid reasoning", yet he himself calls yomi out as Mafia without much of any reasoning (except yomi's lack of solid reasoning).
The Dittert / Hiro link does make a lot of sense to me, more so from the Day 2 events. It's also interesting that this is the second time he has called someone out for something he is doing at the time.
Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote:
The Blue Shift
Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell.
The Distraction Factor
When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch.
##Vote: Xatalos
This is actually HiroPro's most pro-town post in the game, although it isn't without issues either. "The Blue Shift" is a valid point (at least to some extent), but "The Distraction Factor" is again hypocritical. HiroPro claims I "want to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that I think town would be willing to follow through on". This is exactly what HiroPro has been doing: throwing accusations without much basis, creating and jumping on bandwagons eagerly but without conviction (backing off fast if it doesn't take fire), focusing on finding a good bandwagon instead of searching for Mafia. Another suspicious thing about this post is the timing: if HiroPro and Dittert are a Mafia team, it would make a lot of sense to divert the vote from Dittert to me like this. If Dittert is town, however, the timing of this post would make HiroPro less suspicious (why risk switching the vote off of a townie who has already pretty much given up?). The logical conclusion is that most likely HiroPro and Dittert are both Mafia or both town. Both Mafia seems more likely considering HiroPro's weird trust in Dittert (whom most of the town find suspicious).
While the "Blue Shift" part of his argument is valid and the "Distraction Factor" is certainly accurate for Xatalos, it also has some merit for Hiro himself. It seems a lot of Xatalos' argument weighs on Hiro being hypocritical, which while valid I don't think is enough to lynch him for.
However I think Acrofales' argument against Hiro is much stronger. I agree that Hiro going after Xatalos is strange especially given the timing. I did have an idea of why this could mean he was town but it would require circumstances that haven't occurred so I am scrapping this theory. This leaves only the option I can think of as Hiro being scum and Dittert is his team mate. At this point I can see no other reason for Hiro to suddenly jump on Xatalos apart from to defend Dittert.
After his post accusing Xatalos the is one more calling out Xatalos' case against Dittert, which strengthens my feeling they are both scum. The fact that Xatalos changed his vote later to Hiro when there were barely any votes for him makes me think he might actually be town as I can't see a scum reason for this that isn't a huge heap of WIFOM. The silence after defending Dittert is fairly damning I think because this is when the pressure eases of Dittert and onto Xataalos. At this point I think Hiro thinks he has succeeded in saving Dittert and getting Xatalos lynched.
While I am still suspicious of Xatalos because he has done some fairly anti-town things so far. He has stepped up his posting recently and his and Acrofales' cases against Hiro hold up better than Hiro's against Xatalos.
##Unvote
##Vote: HiroPro
The end of this ended up |
| | The night is dark and full of Terrans | |
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| imallinson United Kingdom. April 17 2012 07:16. Posts 2054 | Profile Blog # |
EBWOP:
I was going to say that the end of my post was a bit rushed because I wanted to get it out in a decent time before the deadline. because the votes were so close. However Yomi and Willz both jumped on while I was typing so that kind of invalidates that concern. |
| | The night is dark and full of Terrans | |
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| willz22912 United States. April 17 2012 07:17. Posts 247 | Profile # |
| So now we have a super bandwagon on HiroPro again, but at least for better reasons than Brood's herpderp moment. Definitely going to have to analyze voting behavior for this day's vote. Here's hoping we nail scum, we could use the morale boost. |
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| funcmode Australia. April 17 2012 07:19. Posts 680 | Profile # |
Having read vonK's post on the previous page, I was thinking I'm ready to switch my vote to HiroPro. Just before posting, I refreshed the last page and wow, now I think I'm 100% convinced.
##Unvote
##Vote: HiroPro
I wonder though, is vonK's point regarding Dittert still being the stronger scum read over HiroPro at this point worth following through on this particular vote? I guess it goes without saying if we vote either and they come up scum, then whoever doesn't get voted will either be lynched the next day or vig'd during the night. But just in case, if Hiro/Dittert end up being town, are there worse consequences for voting Dittert or HiroPro now if that's the case?
HiroPro certainly hasn't contributed much, especially in D2, so right now I'm willing to give him the vote, but I was just wondering if people think it might still be better to lynch Dittert tonight or if it just doesn't matter. |
| | @funcmode - TPW Mapmaking Team - theplanetaryworkshop.com |
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| vonKlaust Sweden. April 17 2012 07:21. Posts 156 | Profile # |
@Acrofales
Mind you, but in Xatalos' quotes of me I actually did mention both the ArticFox-case and my suspicions against Xatalos.
I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.
Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.
I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it.
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| vonKlaust Sweden. April 17 2012 07:23. Posts 156 | Profile # |
EBWOWOW:
I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect.
Was in the end of that last one too. |
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| vonKlaust Sweden. April 17 2012 07:24. Posts 156 | Profile # |
| Actually I get a bad feeling from this. You're accusing Hiro if misrepresentating me(which he did), but you seem to do the same thing. |
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| Acrofales Brazil. April 17 2012 07:25. Posts 5188 | Profile # |
| Ouch. I was too hasty in writing that case :/ Still, the timestamps were there as well... |
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| Snarfs Canada. April 17 2012 07:30. Posts 764 | Profile # |
Day 2 Vote Count!
HiroPro (7): Acrofales, KharadBanar, Xatalos, Yomi, willz22912, imallinson, funcmode
Dittert (1): vonKlaust
Xatalos (1): HiroPro
willz22912 (1): Dittert
The Day ends in 30 minutes with HiroPro set to be lynched! |
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