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Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 9

Forum Index > TL Mafia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
 
 Xatalos   Finland. April 12 2012 21:03. Posts 890
Profile # 

On April 12 2012 20:11 KharadBanar wrote:
So now enough with the defense, and onto some actual play. I actually have a (slight) suspicion of Xatalos, believe it or not. I have nothing to say against his case on ArcticFox, but I don't see "70-80% Mafia" in there just because Xatalos played the same way as mafia. Please remember that it is entirely possible to make this play as town if you're new.
This is by no means defending ArcticFox but if I had to evaluate his chances of being Mafia right now, I would put them lower, at like 40-50% which is still quite suspicious. But the thing I really don't like in there is this quote:

Show nested quote +

Please remember that 2-3 votes is more than enough to cause scumslips even in town players, especially new ones. This is something I learned from VI, where Kohbee got into a fight with the entire town and looked scummy for defending himself when in actuality he was the cop desperately trying to wind himself out of the mess he's gotten into.
I am not against pressuring ArcticFox at this point because we need more posts from him, but I won't use my vote for it because I think 3 votes is enough pressure to make anyone's defense look scummy, be it actual scum or just town.


Your defense was reasonable, I guess, but your case on me is pretty weak. First you say my case on ArcticFox is solid, but then you say I'm suspicious because I think he is very likely Mafia. Isn't that normal after making a strong case against someone? Your logic doesn't honestly make much sense there. Also, your point about putting heavy pressure being lethal for noob townies is pretty weird... By that logic, you can never put pressure on anyone, because they might be just noob townies and accidentally make Mafia tells. You HAVE to put the pressure on and trust in your own skills to separate noob townies from Mafia or you never get anywhere. I'm not really sure what to make of your case. It's pretty bad logic, and considering you were praised from your last game, it makes me suspicious of your intentions. On the other hand, why would Mafia go after the most contributive player instead of an easier target? Maybe all the easier targets actually ARE Mafia? In any case, I'm keeping my eye on your following posts.
Old Post

 
 trumpetarn   Sweden. April 12 2012 21:07. Posts 31
Profile # 
Let's get cooking

I do feel that this early in the game pressure with 2-3 votes against players probably will get anyone of us to get a bit stressed and maybe make us slip no matter if we're scum or not.

About Xatalos I feel some suspicion since he shows up so very eager point people out and so but still it what this game is about so its not much to go on just had some hinch when I read his post...

About KharadBanar and Acrofales I think it was pretty useless with the pressure vote and the discussion around everything have given some flavour to everything but I cant really say that KharadBanar is a scum based on it. And the defense from KharadBanar feels ok, it does at least explain the second post IMO pretty well.

Still I would love to here from Dittert and also the rest of you being not so active.



Old Post

 
 trumpetarn   Sweden. April 12 2012 21:13. Posts 31
Profile # 
EDWOP: On the votes I also think that this is a game based on Voes so I also think the votes is needed to get pressure on people, we just should be aware of the fact that it might bring out reactions in townies aswell as scum and thats something to take into count. I still think it is a good way to get people to talk.
Old Post

 
 KharadBanar   Austria. April 12 2012 21:17. Posts 429
Profile # 
I still think Day 1 pressure is pretty worthless in most games. I looked at Newbie VI (Kohbee and Therapist.) and TL Mafia LI (Janaan, sputnik.theory and Tunkeg), and I noticed the utter failure to catch scum on the first Day by pressure. I realize that this is a small data sample to go by, but I don't think strong pressure is the right tool to find scum in a newbie game.

And yes, my case against you was weak and I had no doubt about that. Your argumentation against ArcticFox is sound, I just don't think that makes him as scummy as you depicted it.
There's no such thing as a free lynch.
Old Post

 
 KharadBanar   Austria. April 12 2012 21:18. Posts 429
Profile # 
EBWOP the above as a reply to Xatalos
There's no such thing as a free lynch.
Old Post

 
 KharadBanar   Austria. April 12 2012 21:27. Posts 429
Profile # 

On April 12 2012 21:07 trumpetarn wrote:
About Xatalos I feel some suspicion since he shows up so very eager point people out and so but still it what this game is about so its not much to go on just had some hinch when I read his post...


I think that aggression and being open about one's suspicions is not really big of a scum tell. In fact, you can help town immensely by doing so while nobody else has any reads.
Later in Day 1 town needs to focus on their stronger reads however, and get people to consolidate their suspicions. This is not as important in a newbie game with plurality lynch, but in a "real" game where you need a majority to vote this is the only way for town to get anything done. I would therefore like to propose a procedure like this for our game too, because this is very much a learning experience and I want to prepare for the serious games to come.
There's no such thing as a free lynch.
Old Post

 
 vonKlaust   Sweden. April 12 2012 21:36. Posts 156
Profile # 
Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.

+ Show Spoiler +

Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.


Some people have been critical towards Dittert and his RNG-talk. To me he comes across more as a nervous newbie(no offence, I'm pretty much a nervous newbie myself!) than scum. I think he's sincere about the claim that he was actually after sparking discussion rather than actually pushing for RNGing.
None.
Old Post

 
 Acrofales   Brazil. April 12 2012 22:05. Posts 5183
Profile # 
Quick update to steer this thread back to scumhunting and not repeating each others' opinions.

I like KharadBanar's response. It makes sense. I have not much else to say on this matter at the moment.

While I like the discussion around ArcticFox, I want him himself to respond himself. He's in a different timezone, which means he's probably waking up sometime around now and I look forward to his post. Personally I don't have a scumread on him, but we'll see what he says.

Now on to some more interesting stuff: Trumpetarn, I don't really like your posting style. You are parroting other people's opinions without adding anything to the discussion. This is a really easy trick for mafia to get on a bandwagon, without ever stepping into the spotlight. Another thing I don't like is this bit of your post:


I do feel that this early in the game pressure with 2-3 votes against players probably will get anyone of us to get a bit stressed and maybe make us slip no matter if we're scum or not.

This seems like a very easy way for you to pave the way for you covering any potential scumslips you make. Now I tend to think that scumslips are vastly overrated (and I have played two mafia games in which I hugely trumped up people's scumslips... as mafia), but that is not what you're saying. You're saying that we should not pressure too much, because it will make townies look like mafia. I vehemently disagree: pressure is a great tool for distinguishing the townie from the scum... just not by scumslips.

So... I want to hear your opinion. In fact, I want you to tell me what you think about Xatalos, his playstyle and his case on Arcticfox. So far your vague suspicion of Xatalos has been your only real contribution so far, and I find it rather meagre. Tell us more about why you don't like his playstyle.

@Kharad: I think that at the moment we have an excellent opportunity to get people to post content and get some reads. At some point we will have to focus on who should be lynched, but we still have over 30 hours of day left: plenty of time to just gather information. If people post (meaningful content), that allows us to get reads and have an informed lynch, rather than a mindless bandwagon.
Old Post

 
 ArcticFox   United States. April 12 2012 22:17. Posts 654
Profile # 
@KB -- Read Xatalos' Post. THAT'S how you do a pressure vote.

I mentioned policy a bunch of times last night because there wasn't really a lot to discuss at the time. My primary goal was to get a bunch of people talking, which is working. As of right now, everyone has at least something in their filter to work with, even if it's not much, and we're barely 14 hours into a 48 hour day. Good start.

I read through my filter to try to see what you saw. I think you're focusing too hard on the exact wording rather than my motivation behind it. You can see I shot down the RNG mmediately and called out the WIFOM -- I was taking hard stances on the things that actually came up to take stances on.

Just as I'm going to do now.

I poked Dittert a little bit last night to see how he would respond, but I can't get a clear read on him *just* yet. The RNG thing was pretty nuts, but it sounded more like clueless townie than scum to me. I've got my eye on him to see how his play progresses, but not enough to vote him D1 yet. He needs to come on and form an opinion on something concrete.

Last night I was also feeling KB was playing particularly scummy. Then I read his filter from Newbie VI (found here) and realized that for Day 1 it sounds almost exactly the same. I would have labelled him scum that game too D1 (he was not), so I'm going to wait until I see how much more solid his reads become first. Specifically, I would like you to answer Acrofales' question: Who do you think is scum and why?

HiroPro is lurking pretty hard right now. A confirm, and a bunch of fluff. You need to be more active. I'm calling you out right now. Start posting or you're my #1 choice for a vote right now.

Until HiroPro gives me something to work with though, my suspicions for now though goes to someone nobody has mentioned, vonKlaust.

The case against vonKlaust:
+ Show Spoiler +

He's done a really good job blending in so far. Which is exactly why I'm suspicious of him. Care to weigh in vonKlaust? Actually, I'll just ask you the same question: who do you think is scum, and why?

@Xatalos -- It's too early for me to actually vote, but these are my current suspicions. When I am reasonably sure that I have a scum instead of just suspecting, I'll actually set my vote. Actually setting a vote this early tends to allow an easy bandwagon, which is something I don't want the scum to have.
Old Post

 
 Mattchew   United States. April 12 2012 22:29. Posts 5120
Profile Blog # 
Hey guys I am around all day if anyone wants general game advice. Don't hesitate to send me a PM.
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Old Post

 
 ArcticFox   United States. April 12 2012 22:44. Posts 654
Profile # 
EBWOP (or: "I've had a shower now so I'm more awake.")

Before you latch onto me saying the word "motivation" and go all WIFOM on me, I want to clarify. My activity level and my direct statements point to me being town. The only thing pointing me toward being scum are the amount of times I've mentioned the words "policy" and "blue," which I believe I've explained as well as I can. I'd really like to end this distraction, so I posted my thoughts on the relevant discussions and my red reads so far. (Posting green reads just tends to give scum a list of targets to choose from. They should have to do a little work.)

Anything else you'd like me to answer to, send it my way.
Old Post

 
 vonKlaust   Sweden. April 12 2012 23:24. Posts 156
Profile # 

On April 12 2012 22:17 ArcticFox wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

He's done a really good job blending in so far. Which is exactly why I'm suspicious of him. Care to weigh in vonKlaust? Actually, I'll just ask you the same question: who do you think is scum, and why?

@Xatalos -- It's too early for me to actually vote, but these are my current suspicions. When I am reasonably sure that I have a scum instead of just suspecting, I'll actually set my vote. Actually setting a vote this early tends to allow an easy bandwagon, which is something I don't want the scum to have.


Oh yes, I care to weigh in.


His filter is full of useless junk such as this. It doesn't clutter the thread as much as KB's spam, but it's still just enough to look like you're contributing without actually saying much of anything.


First off, yes I wrote two meaningless oneliners right in the beginning of the game.
+ Show Spoiler +
Sure, those comments were not necessery or helpfull but I wouldn't really call my filter "Full of useless junk" because of that.


The bolded part is pretty damning. It's not part of the game to freak out and kill town. We're here to kill scum.


I think it's pretty clear that I meant that it's inevitable that innocents get lynched, and that there will be people who makes bad reads, and people bandwagoning those. At least that has been the case in the games which I have participated in.



Acts confused about what's going on and doesn't take a solid stance on anything.


Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works.


Again, no thought of his own added here, but simply piggy-backing into what willz has already said.


If you actually read what I wrote the post before:
+ Show Spoiler +
You might notice that this is pretty much what Willz wrote. He posted when I was writing, and thus, I didn't see his post until after I was done. When I read it I thought that he put it much better than I did, and therefore I added:
+ Show Spoiler +
In case I did a bad job making myself understandable.

Please note that in the post I made just after Willz' post, I was elaborating what I wrote in an even earlier post. I was not just copying what Willz were saying.


He's done a really good job blending in so far. Which is exactly why I'm suspicious of him.


What does this even mean? He doesn't seem suspicious, and that's why he is suspicious?

I don't think my filter looks as bad as you're saying. It is true that I haven't accused anyone, or said something like "This is definitley what we should do". But that is simply because I don't really know what to look for in scumhunting(escpecially this early), and I have no idea what to do day 1. Hell, if everyone hadn't trashed Ditters RNG-idea, I might aswell have concidered it. I have just been trying to keep the discussion going.

On the topic of scum, I'll repeat what I said in my last post. I don't really know and I'm definitley not ready to set my vote, but if I had to go for anyone right now, it probably would be you.




None.
Old Post

 
 Xatalos   Finland. April 12 2012 23:45. Posts 890
Profile # 
yomi, Dittert and HiroPro: your contributions so far are non-existent. ArcticFox posted something useful at last, so I'm almost willing to vote for someone else in his place, but you three need to post something before I can get a clear town/Mafia read on you. For the time being, I'm going to keep my vote on ArcticFox, since he's the only one I can make a strong case against at the moment. But you three are next in the line unless you convince me otherwise.
Old Post

 
 Xatalos   Finland. April 12 2012 23:48. Posts 890
Profile # 
Acrofales, what do you think about ArcticFox now? What about his Mafia reads? I find it odd how you think he is innocent, considering he has made the most obvious Mafia tells so far. But his latest post isn't as bad, at least it contributed a bit.
Old Post

 
 Dittert   United States. April 12 2012 23:53. Posts 97
Profile Blog # 
@Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now).

That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First,


On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote:
Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that..


How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say.

Second, we have this gem:


On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum.


Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible.

I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF).
Old Post

 
 yomi   United States. April 12 2012 23:56. Posts 772
Profile Blog # 
I'm ready to commit to a vote for dittert right now. not locked in but that's where I stand.
##vote: dittert

did I do that right?

I really don't know what to make of Xatalos. I find him suspicious but he himself pointed to dittert and arctic (and me....)

Can someone do a list of where all the votes stand currently? Super busy today.

@xatalos:

yomi even had a strange OMGUS reaction to BroodKingEXE after being suspected, without ANYTHING to back up his counter-suspicion

re-read my post. maybe it's not clear, but I accused HIM first. I said brood, kharad, dittert are leading a pointless discussion aka suspicious. willz and arctic I have confidence in aka confident they are town. I no longer think this of arctic.
brood never actually accuses me btw. he, like many, won't take a concrete enough stance.


@brood

On April 12 2012 15:12 BroodKingEXE wrote:
@yomi What about Hiro? KB put his vote on him, and here is his response:
+ Show Spoiler +

It doesn't make sense. If KB can see a difference in tone helps the town figure out if he is scum.
I want to Hiro to tell us why he isn't scum. Until then I'm going to continue to think he is scum.


I found this whole exchange bizarre and didn't really know what to make of it one way or another honestly. Hiro doesn't post a lot so I guess that's suspicious but I don't post that much either.
Old Post

 
 Xatalos   Finland. April 13 2012 00:31. Posts 890
Profile # 
I have a hard time figuring out the 3 Mafia from this back-and-forth action, but if we manage to find even one today, it should make it easy to figure out the rest tomorrow. ArcticFox, I want you to post more. Right now the majority seem to be in favor of your lynch, and unless you share your opinions and prove us your innocence, I'm pretty sure you will be lynched at this rate. If you are town, you have nothing to lose by being more active and useful. If you are Mafia, you of course have the right to be silent, but it will probably lead to your lynch. Also Acrofales and yomi, I want to hear why you disregard my case against ArcticFox and actually even have a town read on him! I can understand not being very suspicious of him, but if you're not suspicious AT ALL, I don't know what to say...

I'm also calling it now: likely either yomi or Dittert is Mafia. Why? It just seems way too convenient that they lurked all game and SUDDENLY appeared to post RIGHT after I called them out. My suspicion? Could very well be Mafia lurking the thread and only posting when required...
Old Post

 
 ArcticFox   United States. April 13 2012 00:36. Posts 654
Profile # 
Forgive spelling and formatting errors for the next few hours as I'm posting from my phone.

@vonKlaust -- thanks for the response. I still want you to take some time and read through the filters to come up with some conclusions of your own. Show some evidence. Just going along with the first strong case is exactly the kind of bandwagoning you're worried about in your post. If you're still convinced I'm scum, explain why.

@HiroPro -- still waiting for you to show up and contribute.

I'll likely place my vote this evening, as 24 hours should be sufficient time for anyone not intentionally lurking to post something relevant.
Old Post

 
 yomi   United States. April 13 2012 00:47. Posts 772
Profile Blog # 
jesus christ


I find him suspicious but he himself pointed to dittert and arctic (and me....)

Implying that I agree with your case against arctic.

notice my logic here that when you suspect someone I also suspect, that makes you less suspicious, as the two reads are mutually exclusive. I was the first person in the thread to attack dittert. I was the first person in this thread to make a concrete attack on anyone. You are now suspicious of him yourself. Therefore .... I'm also suspicious?


how am I lurking? how am I not being constructive? I was the first person to post a solid list of suspicious/not suspicious. arctic is off my not suspicious list and has been for some time.


It just seems way too convenient that they lurked all game and SUDDENLY appeared to post RIGHT after I called them out

I posted in this thread before you. So did dittert. You were one of the last entrants into the thread.

I think xatalos is a dunce. A town dunce, but a dunce nonetheless.



also BTW i still don't like brood.
Old Post

 
 yomi   United States. April 13 2012 00:48. Posts 772
Profile Blog # 
just to clarify since apparently my posts are incomprehensible, when I say "don't like brood" I mean I think he may be mafia.
Old Post

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