[OSL] Dual Tournament Preview

Swarm Season
Zergs everywhere! For the third OSL in a row, there are more Zerg players qualified than either of the other two races. In fact, in Bacchus '10 there were 10 ZvZ played, and only one of each of PvP and TvT. In Jin Air OSL, 15 ZvZ were played, compared to only one TvT and zero PvP. The trend continues this season as there are as many Zergs qualified than Protoss and Terran combined.

Even though more Zergs have been qualifying for OSL recently, there hasn't been a Zerg champion since EffOrt defeated God over two years ago. Maybe it's because there are so many ZvZ that all the Zergs are knocking each other out. Thankfully, this ODT has Zergs spread out so each group has at least two Zergs. That means we might see 12 Zergs make it to the round of 16!

As hilarious horrible as that would be, the racial distribution should balance out by the round of 8. There might not be as many Terrans or Protoss, but I don't see players like RorO, Alone, hyvaa, or Hyuk getting farther than players like BaBy, Flash, JangBi, or Stork.

Endangered Species
2011-2012 has been hard times for Protoss players, with only two of them making it to the round of 16 in Jin Air. This season looks equally grim with only five Protoss in the Dual Tournament. But it's too early to lose hope! Jangbi showed us last season that you can never count the warriors of Aiur out, no matter how few of them there may be. If Jangbi or Stork can manage to avoid strong ZvP players, I can see either of them taking this OSL. It's way to early to make any significant predictions, but I definitely wouldn't count the Protoss out just yet!

Upsets!
The number one reason for the lack of Protoss in the ODT is probably because most upsets were against them. Bisu fans worldwide cried when he fell to RorO's hydra bust in game 3 just like he did against Shine in EVER 2009... and in Bacchus 2010... and in SWL 2010. Seriously, why doesn't Bisu just play more safely against players that he knows he can beat? He was ahead 8-1 head-to-head against RorO. If he had just played more safely and built another cannon or two, maybe he would finally have been able to break his OSL curse.

Likewise, Stats fell to Rush, BeSt lost to Action, Movie to Juni, and Brave to herO[jOin]. Other upsets were Leta losing to Alone, and Crazy-Hydra and EffOrt losing to mini. Although I wish all these great players had made it to the OSL, I'm glad there are new players making a name for themselves. Without new players rising and taking the older generation's place, the scene would stagnate. I'm looking forward to seeing if any of these rookies will be able to go deep into the tournament!

Starleague groups Flash has been in have historically been very easy to predict. Despite seeing in the post-season that God can indeed bleed, I highly doubt Flash will fail to 2-0 his group given the opponents and maps. Neither Alone (Princess) nor Grape has the aura or track record to make me believe he can take down Flash, and I haven't seen any recent indication from Calm demonstrating that his ZvT is up to par with Flash's proven TvZ.

As with all the other Flash-based Starleague groups over the years, the main question boils down to "who besides Flash advances?" In this case, Calm is the favorite to make it out of ODT group A. Coupling his good ZvP with Grape's poor PvZ, I envisage Calm winning his first match before falling to Flash in the winners'. Afterwards though, will he play Grape again, or will he have a coin flip showdown with Princess? In either scenario, I give Calm the advantage--though it wouldn't shock me to see the Brain Zerg leaving this OSL at the hands of one of the rookies.


Any group with Flash contains an element of certainty. Contrast that to any group with Hyuk...

Given that I haven't seen Hyuk play since January, I have no clue what sort of form he's wielding. On the other hand, Mini is one of those rookies that just makes me say "meh". I don't see either of the two beating the winner of BaBy versus Action; likewise, I doubt the loser of Hyuk vs mini will prevail in the losers' match. All in all, either BaBy or Action will go 2-0, and the other will go 2-1. I'd put money on Action walking away with the 2-0.

Things aren't as simple as they seem though. Despite Action demonstrating some semblance of solidarity in his play recently, I still question his ability to handle ZvZ and early game TvZ. BaBy is and always will be streaky, mini hasn't played enough for me to get a grasp of his form, and Hyuk is Hyuk. If I'm completely wrong for this set of predictions, don't indemnify me.


In terms of players, this group is fairly even and should be fun to watch. Stork's been having a good season, and Killer and Bogus have proven that they have extraordinary highs they can pull out if needed. herO[jOin] is the odd man out, and when pitted against the other three, I give him a very minimal chance of making it out. Killer versus Bogus should be a fun match to watch, and I'd give a slight advantage to Bogus based on SPL performances. For me, Bogus and Stork winning their first matches would be ideal, since I'd really enjoy to see a Stork versus Bogus winners' match. Bogus' TvP has produced some of my favorite games of the SPL 2011-2012 season, and Stork's PvT needs no introduction. If it comes down to this, I think Stork will be victorious (though the game should preferably be long and drawn-out), thus advancing 2-0. In the losers', it's again a coin flip: I've learned not to try to call ZvZ games. Regardless, I think Bogus will take the 2-1 slot for advancement. I just haven't seen enough from Killer this season to inspire confidence. Suck it Harem.


This group is so hard to pick favorites from, and equally as hard to predict. I don't like Modesty but for some reason he always manages to make it through to the later rounds of OSL tournaments. Horang2 has been looking great recently, ZerO is cute, and you can't cheer against the Hollywood Fishyking. I'd prefer the three of Horang2, HiyA, and ZerO to all advance, but alas, 'tis not possible.

Insofar as Horang2 versus Modesty goes, Horang2 has been doing well while Modesty has not; I expect the Tiger to triumph. The other match is much, much harder to call. ZerO's ZvT this season has been rife with poor decision-making and execution, but HiyA hasn't played a competitive match in over half a year. Arbitrarily, I'm going to say HiyA wins, especially since I hope he does well enough in this OSL in order to have teams look at him. For the winners' match, I'd give Horang2 the edge over both HiyA and ZerO (can't believe I'm saying this) due to recent performance. For the second slot, it's a toss-up... but again, I'd prefer HiyA advance. 'Tis better for him to make a 2-0 sweep, but realistically that isn't very probabilistic.


Two years ago, we'd all say something like "Jaedong EZ". I still want to think that Jaedong is the master of ZvZ (and most recently he's starting to inspire confidence again in the match-up), but let's not forget it was hyvaa who knocked Jaedong out of the last OSL.

Jaedong will crush Rush. If this does not occur, I'll eat a sockjellybean (jellybeans kick ass). RorO will probably lose to hyvaa because he's lost all his ZvZ games this season. In the next set of games, I believe Jaedong will have his revenge on hyvaa and RorO will beat Rush. Again, hyvaa will triumph over RorO in the final set.


This group is also hard to call due to match-up differentials. For example, if Last goes up against Sea I'd give him a slight advantage due to recent performances. Yet against either Soulkey or Shine, Last is majorly disadvantaged. Most likely, Neo.G_Soulkey will 2-0 this group; he's been having a very good season and has given us some great games. As for the second slot, I really want to say Sea will take it, but I can't do that in good faith. It's truly a toss-up for the second slot: Shine hasn't played enough, Last skill-wise is very lopsided, and Sea, while historically a solid player, has been shoddy in the past season. random.org says Shine will advance, most likely by utilizing zerglings.