On May 19 2012 13:29 Qatol wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:
On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote:
This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position.
I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play.
Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote:
On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:
On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread.
Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet
hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet.
And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town.
Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying.
Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively:
1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd
2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd
3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla
4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla
5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla
Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor.
1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him?
I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further:
1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.)
2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened:
2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars.
2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars).
3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him.
So which situation is the one you think is the most likely?
By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early?
Meanwhile,
if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying.
If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated:
We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason.
Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target?
I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates.
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