| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 06:43. Posts 11382 | Profile # |
slOosh - don't forget the obvious conclusion - the claims lead to the fact that Barundar chose Politician.
So we need him to claim atm. |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| slOosh May 23 2012 06:46. Posts 1921 | Profile # |
| True, I just didn't want everyone to stay mum waiting for a claim that might not even happen, and we can still hunt for the final scum should Barundar be the SK. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 06:47. Posts 11382 | Profile # |
Barundar - SK
Zephirdd - last scum |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 06:48. Posts 11382 | Profile # |
On May 21 2012 22:13 Zephirdd wrote: i think that makes toad and barundar viable rolecop targets. Of course a confirming rolecop(on marv, for example) would be useful. IMO any politician should be insta lynched.also I got ninja'd because I am writting everything on phone 
To the bolded: awfully funny given how he tried for Politician, no?
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| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| slOosh May 23 2012 06:50. Posts 1921 | Profile # |
Hmm. Zephirdd claimed getting shot on N1. Do you think this was a lie to introduce confusion about KPs? That Zephirdd actually was not shot but he as scum shot Barundar, and seeing how Barundar did not claim found the need to claim himself?
Reminds me of that IRC mafia game where someone just forgot to check a PM they were shot, and scum got nervous and lied.
Was Zephirdd shot, or is he lying, and if he is why did he feel the need to do it? |
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| slOosh May 23 2012 07:04. Posts 1921 | Profile # |
Oh, and I agree that Zephirdd is looking like a good lynch for today. Beside his "reaction" to the day-vig, his filter does play along mafia agenda. For instance:
On May 16 2012 23:07 Zephirdd wrote:
I want to see Bullet Bill and Mason. BBill is a great kind of DT, which could be used to find suspicious players, ESPECIALLY in the event a suspicious player claims a non-bullet role. A BBill that finds powder in a non-bullet claim confirms the target as scum(if you assume there was no frame, ofc)
In hindsight we see that scum team picked predominantly KP roles (or at least aimed for roles with guns), giving them a perfect cover up for BB checks. His reasoning for voting risk is shaky ground, on the sole premise of risk playing to his own style, defends PaqMan, really pushes for risk, and even though he is aware of the possibility, it takes him 2 days to realize it was actually him who got shot.
On May 20 2012 23:46 Zephirdd wrote:
My guess is that the witch protected someone before dieing.
On May 22 2012 06:34 Zephirdd wrote:
by the way, just logged in. I was saved. I'm the last KP missing I guess lol.
Townies could be wrong. These could be honest townie mistakes. But when they start adding up, I'm more inclined to say that there is hidden agenda behind them.
Hiro, feel free to weigh in on the discussions if they are relevant to your current findings. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 07:07. Posts 11382 | Profile # |
Well I just can't get over how he said any Politician should be instalynched when that was his choice.
If he was town, surely he would understand what town motives there are for it as he went for it himself.
The only reason he wants to lynch the Politician is... what? because someone got it before him? |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 23 2012 07:12. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
On May 23 2012 06:43 marvellosity wrote:
slOosh - don't forget the obvious conclusion - the claims lead to the fact that Barundar chose Politician.
So we need him to claim atm.
I don't think that's necessarily the assumption to go with. I have a few problems with the assumption that mafia shot the SK last night 100 %. I came to that assumption myself and said so a couple of hours before someone else pointed it out as well but I realized that it's not the only explanation.
Same here. I find it hard to believe that someone would deny politician as town. I don't think that role is THAT strong except for the first lynch of the game. Ever after the first lynch the lynches tend to be pretty clearly in one direction.
Not to mention that it would be a perfect claim for the real politician as well. He makes everyone on top of him (I'm talking about the list you kids ) look bad while he knows that noone else got that role because he himself has it.
We don't have a role-Cop anymore to check that and there is no way to check it unless we lynch into something like 4 people to find out there never was a politician within the higher drafts the begin with.
That all sounds really convenient imo.
Not saying it's him. It just looks fishy imo. However we have to wait for barundars claim to figure this mess out, that way we at least know what happened with the missing night hit. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 07:18. Posts 11382 | Profile # |
On May 23 2012 07:12 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 06:43 marvellosity wrote:
slOosh - don't forget the obvious conclusion - the claims lead to the fact that Barundar chose Politician.
So we need him to claim atm.
I don't think that's necessarily the assumption to go with..
Toad, I just meant that if all the claims we have are true, then Barundar must be Politician.
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| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 23 2012 07:38. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
On May 23 2012 07:18 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 07:12 Toadesstern wrote:
On May 23 2012 06:43 marvellosity wrote:
slOosh - don't forget the obvious conclusion - the claims lead to the fact that Barundar chose Politician.
So we need him to claim atm.
I don't think that's necessarily the assumption to go with..
Toad, I just meant that if all the claims we have are true, then Barundar must be Politician.
I know, it's just not telling us anything. You're basicly saying "if all that was said so far is right the only guy who hasn't said a thing so far has to be the one not telling the truth" which is kinda obvious considering the fact that we're massclaiming and there's probably one guy who's a politician
If barundar is not talking with us we lynch him. If he claims as well we look at everything from a "complete" point of view rather than speculation what might or might not be confirmed under the assumption that X, Y or Z is probably right. |
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| Zephirdd Brazil. May 23 2012 07:38. Posts 4505 | Profile Blog # |
sloosh, our co-host confirmed that he delayed the PM about my shot. Yes, I was shot n1 and yes, chaoser took two days to tell me that.
On May 23 2012 07:07 marvellosity wrote:
Well I just can't get over how he said any Politician should be instalynched when that was his choice.
If he was town, surely he would understand what town motives there are for it as he went for it himself.
The only reason he wants to lynch the Politician is... what? because someone got it before him?
Because Politician had not claimed. A Town Politician HAS to claim; there is no use in being a hidden politician when you are town as it will only generate confusion. The same with Pardoner, for instance. Since the Politician didn't claim, I assumed he had to be SK(as scum would save sentinel day1).
Since I knew that a Politician existed(but hided the fact until an appropriate time ie. now) I said that. nothing wrong here.
Also, if you want to lynch someone, Lynch m*fucking Barundar. Y'know, the one guy who didn't claim. The one guy that can only be the Politician given the claims so far. The guy who had a case on him and the author of the case died. That guy. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 07:39. Posts 11382 | Profile # |
I didn't say he had to be not telling the truth. Gosh 
But yes, we really need to hear from Barundar. |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| risk.nuke Sweden. May 23 2012 07:43. Posts 2763 | Profile # | |
| | Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 |
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| chaoser United States. May 23 2012 11:29. Posts 5538 | Profile Blog # |
| I was going to do a vote count and then I noticed only two people have voted...Day Cycle ends in 24 hours, get your votes in by then. |
| | Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul. |
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| Snarfs Canada. May 23 2012 12:10. Posts 764 | Profile # |
| Gonna put my vote on Barundar for now, at least until he claims. Once we have all the information though, hopefully we can get a good discussion going on who people think is lying. |
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| Qatol United States. May 23 2012 16:02. Posts 3010 | Profile Blog # |
I've skimmed through the thread since my last post and I have a few sleep-deprived/exhausted thoughts:
1. Palmar, I realize now that my last post regarding you was extremely harsh. I apologize. That being said, it feels like your reads are completely different from mine even though I think you're town, and that is very frustrating to me. Maybe it's because you're trying to rely on behavior while I've been relying mostly on logic? Also, I think I'm still reacting poorly to the way you posted during the pre-day 1 phases. Regardless, I was out of line. You are clearly putting in an effort. That being said, I still don't think sandroba is mafia because I can't see mafia busing in that position.
2. Snarfs, you being the mason townie makes me sad, and not just because it means we have a bigger list of players to sort through to find the SK. You were my strongest townie read by far and I was hoping to confirm someone else I wasn't quite so sure of.  I think you're mostly on the right track. The only thing I'm unsure of is voting for Barundar and assuming that everyone else is telling the truth about their picks (I know others are doing more of this than you are). Do you think we are better served by going for the people who are likely to be SK or the people who are likely to be mafia? Or maybe the one player who stands a decent chance of being either one (Zephirdd)?
3. Hiro, I really hope you're telling the truth, if only because it will be the second and third time I've ever been protected by a medic and that makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Regardless, I don't think you're a good target for a lynch with a claim like that. I think both the mafia and the SK have to seriously consider hitting you very quickly or risk having you stop their hits (your role is the most dangerous one out there for them right now), so a claim like that is extremely dangerous for you, and that's good enough for me right now.
4. Misder, I thought Barundar was going to claim roleblocker. That doesn't seem as likely now that you've claimed it. |
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| Barundar Denmark. May 23 2012 17:37. Posts 1562 | Profile # |
On May 23 2012 03:15 hiro protagonist wrote:
Im the Doctor. I protected Qatol both nights.
Liar!
Still a few pages to go, but Hiro is lieing. |
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| Barundar Denmark. May 23 2012 17:46. Posts 1562 | Profile # |
I protected qatol both night 1 and night 2. I like that Hiro say he did as well if he was roleblocked as Misder claim?
I thought I was the most obvious doctor ever, why did you think I was a roleblocker? |
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| risk.nuke Sweden. May 23 2012 18:24. Posts 2763 | Profile # |
| This is fun. So needless to say today we focus between Barundar and Hiro Protagonist. I'm going to make a full analysis of both players today. Hiro what do you have to say about Barundars claim? |
| | Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 |
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| Palmar Iceland. May 23 2012 18:57. Posts 7597 | Profile Blog # |
@Qatol, I don't rely on behavior in the classic sense, I rely on emotion and meta, probably more than anyone else on the mafia forum. It works very well when I'm actively playing, but I've only rolled scum or been shot night 1 after an uneventful day since I came back to playing for 2 months, which means I'm out of touch with the general feeling. It's what has made me extremely successful in the past, but it's also a much more volatile way to scumhunt and requires me to be more in touch with the game than just using logic.
I would support a barundar lynch. My initial reservations about him may have been based on something solid. And given the fact we have several good candidates for being townies, I see no problem with starting to lynch into the other group.
Snarf/marv being kind of confirmed looks good.
Misder's claim actually makes him look very good. It's almost impossible scum would use their roleblock on me as a claimed pardoner, a claim they would have no reason to disbelieve. However assuming I might be scum or SK it's a good call to roleblock me.
risk/qatol are probably town.
Sloosh's performance around the lynch of sentinel makes him unlikely to be scum
Mattchew still gets all the leeway in the world for his shot on deconduo.
Zephirdd is a weird one. Go back and read this interaction: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14722661 It seems very unlikely Zephirdd is scum based on this, and for the moment I'm not too worried about an SK
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