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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 21:38. Posts 11825 | Profile # |
On May 23 2012 21:33 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 21:27 zelblade wrote:
Okay marv lets go slowly.
First you claim that snarfs took politician and didnt get it, and we assume that the SK took politician.
Qatol proceeds to ask any town politician to claim if they got the role for obvious reasons. I see 0 reason for a townie politician to not claim at this point because it isnt even a strong role.
Which means that a politician is in the game, and if he didnt claim, that would mean that the politician isnt town (unless he isnt very smart). The primary purpose of this entire roleclaim was to flush out the politician in the first place.
Which is why we are auto-lynching the politician, because it is extremely likely whoever has the politician role is the SK.
Thank you zel <3 it appears I may be being stupid. I thought Zephirdd's comment came at an earlier time. I will go back and check to confirm I fucked up the order of things
Alright, yep, Zephirdd's comment came after. Oops. |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| Mattchew United States. May 23 2012 22:14. Posts 5120 | Profile Blog # | |
| | There is always tomorrow nshs.seal. |
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| sandroba Brazil. May 23 2012 23:20. Posts 3116 | Profile # |
We could abuse this situation I think.
Tell me what you think of this plan:
We no lynch today.
Hiro protects Sloosh
Barundar protects Qatol
Misder does not role block into them
Qatol does not protect into them
Sloosh goes ahead and happily confirms more players (hiro first as he can be mafia, but not sk). If any of the four dies we get a confirmed anti town. There are 14 players alive, 2 anti town. If we mislynch the doctor we lose parity/jailer and we are probably looking at 9(1) 2 days from now, with most of the good roles dead. If we no lynch we might lose 2 people tonight if qatol doesn't pull of a save, but we confirm one more, or if the mafia/sk opts to out the other we lose one of sloosh/qatol/doctor, but never 2 of them. 2 days from now we will probably be 10(1). The only problem I see with this is if Hiro (or the last mafia) took GF at low position. Not sure how likely that is though. |
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| sandroba Brazil. May 23 2012 23:26. Posts 3116 | Profile # |
| The down side to this is that if we hit today obviously it's better. But there is yet another dumb play if barundar is SK as everyone including myself seems to believe. Why would he claim doctor if it means at best death 2 days from now? That's playing against your wincondition. If we opt to lynch someone today it probably makes more sense that we lynch hiro. I'm kinda torn though I thought barundar was the sk for sure. Maybe it's zephird/toad. Oh well. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 23:27. Posts 11825 | Profile # |
| Doesn't it hinge on slOosh definitely telling the truth? |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 23 2012 23:34. Posts 6117 | Profile # |
yeah and we assume that the SK is a politician, we don't know what role the last mafia has do we?
Could be a framer or a godfather as well. |
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| sandroba Brazil. May 23 2012 23:46. Posts 3116 | Profile # |
| Framer doesn't matter. It doesn't hinge on sloosh not being scum, because as long as he is alive he has to confirm other players anyway. It hinges only on GF. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 23 2012 23:51. Posts 11825 | Profile # |
But slOosh could lie. Why doesn't framer matter? And the GF could blow it apart.
Too many holes when we've already narrowed down the lynch targets so much. |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 23 2012 23:56. Posts 6117 | Profile # |
On May 23 2012 23:46 sandroba wrote:
Framer doesn't matter. It doesn't hinge on sloosh not being scum, because as long as he is alive he has to confirm other players anyway. It hinges only on GF.
well framer could frame someone else red making us lynch into that guy first and secondly probably lynch sloosh even if he tells the truth because everyone will be like "woooah, you lied, LYNCH HIM" after seeing a red check flip green.
Which would be a NL followed by 2 mislynches.
Yeah that's pretty much a worst case scenario but given that mafia has a good idea on who to frame it's like a coinflip if there really is a framer.
And yes it is thinking about what could go wrong and not about what could go right but I think with out course of action we have right now we're fine because we're going to find a mafia/SK in either hiro or barundar. Pretty much no matter what.
So it has some downsides (somewhat unlikely but totally scarry ones) but very little advantages imo.
If hiro / Barundar is the SK we can't even shoot him that night and there's plenty of targets that could be shot right now, like risk, marv, snarfs, Qatol and so on. |
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| hiro protagonist May 24 2012 00:07. Posts 1031 | Profile # |
LOL.
##Vote: Barundar
Looks like the SKs been caught.
@sandroba, I thought about that but Ive come to the conclusion there is no reliable way for me (or any medic) to prove my role at this point due to the KP. It matters not, ether we lynch the SK today, whether its me or Barundar, or we roleblock and shoot tonight the sk after lynching the medic. So only the last scum remains by day 3 
Im just heading of to work, Ill be back in the thread this afternoon.
also, why would we have chose the exact same prods lol. |
| | "I guess if you climb enough off-widths, one of these days, your gonna get your knee stuck and shit your pants. Its just an odds thing really" -Jason Kruk |
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| Barundar Denmark. May 24 2012 00:33. Posts 1564 | Profile # |
| Didn't expect me to have picked doctor eh hiro? As I said it's smarter to kill Hiro first, since he is obviously lying to anyone who doesnt go by hear say but who actually reads the thread, but at least you are dead the moment I flip |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 24 2012 00:38. Posts 6117 | Profile # |
On May 24 2012 00:33 Barundar wrote:Didn't expect me to have picked doctor eh hiro? As I said it's smarter to kill Hiro first, since he is obviously lying to anyone who doesnt go by hear say but who actually reads the thread, but at least you are dead the moment I flip
yeah I'd usually say you can't be mafia / SK but the same was already pointed out about hiro.
On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote:
I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic at position 16 due to the fact that its rather likely that someone above them in the draft could have taken it, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade.
Which means if we go by the assumption that hiro isnt making a (really bad) gambit barundar is the SK.
and here's what can be said about barundar:
On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote:
I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic after someone else claimed medic already, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade.
Which means if we go by the assumption that Barundar isnt making a (really bad) gambit hiro is the remaining mafia.
Both make equally no sense.
I think IF hiro tells the truth barundar is going to flip SK and we still have the mafia left who claimed something else.
I think IF barundar tells the truth hiro is going to flip mafia and we still have the SK left who claimed something else.
Both stories make equally no sense and one of you is aiming for the "hey this makes no sense from mafia / SK point of view, it's got to be the other guy!", especially after sents flip. |
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| Snarfs Canada. May 24 2012 01:06. Posts 764 | Profile # |
I'm switching my vote to hiro.
As others have pointed out, it makes little sense for either of them to claim the way they did. However, it makes less sense for Barundar to claim that role second.
The only goal Barundar could have is to get the doctor lynched so that he has a free shot at Qatol tonight, but then he still dies tomorrow and mafia lose. If Barundar is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had given his team a ZERO percent chance at winning.
At least hiro, with his earlier claim, could have been hoping that Barundar did not pick doctor, in addition to knowing that if he causes a mislynch of a doctor he can shoot Qatol. If Hiro is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had a GREATER THAN ZERO percent chance of winning.
In addition to this, hiro makes the most sense for mafia. I agreed with much of what Qatol said in his case and had come to similar conclusions before the whole roleclaim. Especially notice how he just says that he does not think we should lynch Sentinel without any reasoning. [Link] Now, knowing that he is in the mess of things, I think that he is a more viable target than Barundar.
Think about it from Barundar's and hiro's perspectives. Barundar just threw the game if he's either mafia or SK. This would be the last explanation I would give for anyone's play on TL. hiro at least had a chance that Barundar would not claim doctor.
I suggest everyone switch to hiro as it makes more sense logically for him to be mafia.
##Unvote Barundar
##Vote hiro protagonist |
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| Snarfs Canada. May 24 2012 01:07. Posts 764 | Profile # |
| The only other option is that Barundar is SK and he is counting his entire game on the fact that hiro is mafia. Either way, we have scum, but it makes more sense to lynch hiro today. |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 24 2012 01:15. Posts 6117 | Profile # |
Snarfs I would usually totally agree with you. But this isn't a normal game anymore after the sent flip.
I just don't think there is a way to figure this out based on the role claims AT ALL. Both are equally mafia-esque.
Barundars action makes a little less sense than hiros action from a not-town perspective but he could do that on purpose.
I doubt getting the medic (if there is one) is a goal. I'd say the one who is not town out of those 2 gave up the game and wants to be lynched which makes it incredible hard to judge wether something makes sense or not from a mafia point of view.
We should see to it that one of those 2 is lynched today, It makes no difference who get's lynched first except for the lucky factor if we hit mafia or town but there's just no reasonable way to figure this out. |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 24 2012 01:15. Posts 11825 | Profile # |
Snarfs just clearly wrote out the result of my babbled thoughts to him in PM. So
##Vote: hiro protagonist |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| marvellosity United Kingdom. May 24 2012 01:16. Posts 11825 | Profile # |
| Toad, I disagree. Snarfs comment explains why hiro is the superior lynch. |
| | I disagree with myself - kushm4sta |
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| Snarfs Canada. May 24 2012 01:18. Posts 764 | Profile # |
On May 23 2012 16:02 Qatol wrote:2. Snarfs, you being the mason townie makes me sad, and not just because it means we have a bigger list of players to sort through to find the SK. You were my strongest townie read by far and I was hoping to confirm someone else I wasn't quite so sure of.  I think you're mostly on the right track. The only thing I'm unsure of is voting for Barundar and assuming that everyone else is telling the truth about their picks (I know others are doing more of this than you are). Do you think we are better served by going for the people who are likely to be SK or the people who are likely to be mafia? Or maybe the one player who stands a decent chance of being either one (Zephirdd)?
I think that we given the current information, we should be lynching hiro protagonist as he has a 1/2 random chance of being scum, and a much greater chance than that based on actions we've both identified in the thread.
I think that we should wait and see what happens after the lynch today, then help the other role players in the game decide how best to use their actions. People like zephirdd will need to be confirmed somehow, and I agree that he does stand a decent chance of being SK, though maybe not mafia.
About the vote on Barundar: We can discuss this after the game  |
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| Mattchew United States. May 24 2012 01:20. Posts 5120 | Profile Blog # |
On May 24 2012 01:06 Snarfs wrote:I'm switching my vote to hiro. As others have pointed out, it makes little sense for either of them to claim the way they did. However, it makes less sense for Barundar to claim that role second. The only goal Barundar could have is to get the doctor lynched so that he has a free shot at Qatol tonight, but then he still dies tomorrow and mafia lose. If Barundar is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had given his team a ZERO percent chance at winning.At least hiro, with his earlier claim, could have been hoping that Barundar did not pick doctor, in addition to knowing that if he causes a mislynch of a doctor he can shoot Qatol. If Hiro is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had a GREATER THAN ZERO percent chance of winning.In addition to this, hiro makes the most sense for mafia. I agreed with much of what Qatol said in his case and had come to similar conclusions before the whole roleclaim. Especially notice how he just says that he does not think we should lynch Sentinel without any reasoning. [ Link] Now, knowing that he is in the mess of things, I think that he is a more viable target than Barundar. Think about it from Barundar's and hiro's perspectives. Barundar just threw the game if he's either mafia or SK. This would be the last explanation I would give for anyone's play on TL. hiro at least had a chance that Barundar would not claim doctor. I suggest everyone switch to hiro as it makes more sense logically for him to be mafia. ##Unvote Barundar
##Vote hiro protagonist
you were right the first time
##Unvote Barundar
##Vote hiro protagonist |
| | There is always tomorrow nshs.seal. |
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| Snarfs Canada. May 24 2012 01:24. Posts 764 | Profile # |
On May 24 2012 01:15 Toadesstern wrote:
Snarfs I would usually totally agree with you. But this isn't a normal game anymore after the sent flip.
I just don't think there is a way to figure this out based on the role claims AT ALL. Both are equally mafia-esque.
Barundars action makes a little less sense than hiros action from a not-town perspective but he could do that on purpose.
I doubt getting the medic (if there is one) is a goal. I'd say the one who is not town out of those 2 gave up the game and wants to be lynched which makes it incredible hard to judge wether something makes sense or not from a mafia point of view.
We should see to it that one of those 2 is lynched today, It makes no difference who get's lynched first except for the lucky factor if we hit mafia or town but there's just no reasonable way to figure this out.
I do not think that we should play as though they gave up.
Even so, I believe that based on actions in the thread, hiro is likely mafia. If you haven't already, you should reread Qatol's analysis I linked in that post.
Finally, if nothing else convinces you and you are down to a coinflip between the two, you it might as well sheep Qatol.
Conclusion: Before the roleclaim, both Qatol and I thought hiro was a good mafia candidate. After the roleclaim, hiro is one of two people caught in a 1:1 trade. I believe that hiro should be lynched. |
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