Pick Your Power: Redux

On May 26 2012 21:13 Zephirdd wrote:
Toad, there is a reason when you know politician cant be below you on the draft and hiro was below me while barundar is above.

so what? We're looking for 1 mafia and 1 traitor after Barundar flipps and once he flipps we know wether or not your claim is right.

If he flips politician you're good

If he's not we've got 2 mafias left that may or may not have something to with politicians AT ALL. So far I don't know if I can trust your claim therefore leaving it as an option, although it might seem unlikely but after Barundars action and hiros flip I'm not taking anything for granted anymore.

chaoser United States. May 26 2012 22:01. Posts 5538

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Do you guys need me to post an updated list of links to the other day/night posts?

Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.

sandroba Brazil. May 26 2012 22:57. Posts 3115

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Let me tell you why you are scum and your trap is retarded. Toad uses trap to see if sandroba is mafia based on mason role -> it fails, sandroba really went for mason -> toad concludes sandroba is still mafia anyway -> ??? -> more nonsense and ignoring everything else.

sandroba Brazil. May 26 2012 23:34. Posts 3115

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Now that I look at the draft positions I think it's unlikely misder is scum after all. paqman got Vanilla. Roles that he could have gone for are Vigilante/DayVigi/RoleBlocker. Given his drafting position the most likely role he went after is Role Blocker and such a high concentration of mafia on the top picks is highly unlikely.

And let me adress toad's bullshit sprouting one more time, you guys can ignore this shit if you want, but I feel like typing it:
+ Show Spoiler +

You thought denial of CPR was a smart thing and I was being dumb not wanting to "deny" CPR. Guess what? Mafia still got CPR and would have most likely killed a fair bit of townies before being uncovered because we have no way of knowing where the kp is coming from early on. Arbitrary vigi save our asses, but the way he did it could have been a townie killed just for being CPR and mattchew knowing where the role is so there goes a good role to waste. So putting CPR on the top spot turns out to be a not so good idea for value after all? Could be a point of discussion, but it's not proven for a fact that "denying CPR" when it doesn't even accomplish that is a good plan.
Now to the next thing. You thought I had an anti-town mindset by going for no lynch in that situation, while you wanted to lynch risk. I couldn't figure out at the time which one was mafia because no explanation made sense. Then I though more about it and came up with the marv explanation. I was the first one to ask for role claims to sort it out. Turns out I was wrong on marv, when he claimed mason, I ditched my case and went for the other only reasonable explanation I thought of at the time which was sentinel was traitor and voted him before I left home. Mean while you thought all 3 can be town when we have a PROVEN liar between them and no possible townie explanation to be lying. LOL. Who is the anti town here? Me that want to sort things out or you that rushes on to want to lynch #2 position of the draft with no thought whatsoever on the matter or trying to uncover things?
Then again I did the most pro-town suggestion yesterday and you still ignore it. I suggested no lynch yet again to preserve 2 out of 3 from jailer/parity/doctor. Guess what people didn't feel like wasting time so we ended up with dead doctor and dead parity and still have to lynch the sk today. Yet you ignore everything that is happening, pulls a number out of your ass "sandroba has 50-80% of fipping mafia". Good statistics bro, where the fuck does it come from? My conclusion is death to scum Toadestern.

Toadesstern Germany. May 27 2012 00:28. Posts 6103

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On May 26 2012 22:57 sandroba wrote:
Let me tell you why you are scum and your trap is retarded. Toad uses trap to see if sandroba is mafia based on mason role -> it fails, sandroba really went for mason -> toad concludes sandroba is still mafia anyway -> ??? -> more nonsense and ignoring everything else.

never said it was a good trap

If you would have told me you were a mason you would have been confirmed mafia yeah.
Telling me you ended up being VT is a nullread and doesn't change it because you could be smart enough to figure out the "trap" (and again, it wasn't really that good after announce I'd pick mason myself lol) or you just told the truth. I can't tell the difference, how am I supposed to?

And I already adressed everything in your spoiler when answering Snarfs, so I don't really feel like copy & pasting stuff

Qatol United States. May 27 2012 03:26. Posts 3010

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On May 26 2012 22:01 chaoser wrote:
Do you guys need me to post an updated list of links to the other day/night posts?

I think we're okay. We can just find your filter for now and GMarshal can update whenever he's feeling better.

Does the traitor take over the night kill if the entire mafia team is dead? Or is it possible that nobody has a night kill?

Guys, calm down and be a little nicer. Remember, we're all friends here.

Zephirdd, the only thing I can think of for why I'm still alive is because I was the medic target the first 2 nights (and mafia/SK saw this), and last night mafia thought that a parity cop would do more damage than I would. Who knows what SK thought (maybe that Snarfs was doing a good job of organizing the town and was thus a higher priority? maybe that slOosh was a potential mafia so the mafia might hit me?).

As far as lynch prospects go, and assuming Barundar is SK, there are a few things I think we need to resolve.
1. Is there a traitor?
If there is one, let's look at the players who could possibly have the role:
Toadesstern, Palmar, sandroba, and Zephirdd.
Toadesstern claimed his mason role only after sandroba and marvellosity claimed.
Palmar has an unverifiable role unless we ask him to pardon someone (if he doesn't simply get modkilled).
I'm unsure about sandroba. On the one hand, he claimed whiffing on mason very early. On the other hand, he was last in the draft order, so a whiff claim is much safer than it is at any other position. And he hasn't contributed much to the discussion until recently.
Zephirdd claimed he whiffed on a role which someone else had already claimed a whiff on. It's unverifiable without a lynch. He took a hit, but that's irrelevant if he's traitor.

If this is the case, the player I like the most as mafia is Zephirdd. He's the only player who really hasn't attempted to contribute much to the discussion while still being on the risk.nuke voting list. In fact, he could have even attempted to grab Politician as scum, so his claim of getting vanilla doesn't have to be unbelievable.

2. If there isn't a traitor, then either risk.nuke or Misder is mafia.
risk.nuke shot PaqMan when many expected a shot on Palmar instead. I think this rules him out.
Misder wasn't on the Sentinel voting list, so I don't like him either, but if there isn't a traitor, then I think he's probably our best bet between these two.

TL;DR: I think we should be looking at either Misder or Zephirdd as our last mafia. If the mafia member isn't Misder, then we have a traitor to hunt for as well.

Uff Da

Toadesstern Germany. May 27 2012 04:30. Posts 6103

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I'm not being mad or not-nice at all. It's just incredible hilarious that Sandroba has not done a thing until now, comes in here with basicly the same arguments snarfs has presented (and I already explained why they are simply not true) and tells people I'm 100% mafia.

I said a 1/3 lynch is not good because I'm not sure which of those 3 is mafia d1 once I realized one had to be mafia and suggest lynching Sandroba as an alternative instead because I felt like he had a better chance to flip mafia than 1/3 anyways.
Sandroba said he had no idea which one of those would flip mafia and proposed a NL while NOT even giving a read at all or an alternative. He simply got in here told people to NL, no reason why, nothing and settled with one of the 3 because he had to (frankly with the guy that was looking the most townish imo)

I hate no-lynches as town, especially if half the playerfield is within their first 10 games or something like that because I feel like NLs are hurting the less experienced more and only a handfull of players can really deal with a NL properly and I don't think I'm one of them. Therefore I pushed for my (imo way better) alternative and settled for one of the 3 once I realized a Sandro-lynch is not going to happen
Sandroba hates NL's and is a guy who says stuff like "I want to make d1 optimal every single game as town", yet he did nothing and proposed to NL without giving an alternative. That's optimal play? That's what snarfs is saying I'm doing and while it's totally wrong it is right about Sandroba.

I told people I think Sandroba is at least a 50% chance to hit mafia d1 and I still think so. My strongest mafiareads on d1 have in general an incredible goot chance to hit mafia d1, proof here + Show Spoiler [d1 reads from my last 5 games] +

L: Erandorr, turned out red.
Next one: Sandroba, turned out red
AC: Schworz My one big failure, but that guy fakeclaimed DT and told people he got a red check on my mod-confirmed bodyguard in a game without framers as a townie, lol. Ever since that happened I just completly lost myself and derped the game.
Storm: RoL, WBG, VE RoL was the strongest read but he basicly claimed mafia in the thread so that doesn't count. WBG flipped mafia, VE flipped SK, pick one of those
C9++ #2: VE, guy flipped mafia

So thats a 4 in 5 chance to hit mafia. Yeah I'd consider my d1 reads pretty good although I don't always know why I think someone is mafia, which makes it kinda hard to explain it to other people lol
and I'd consider the read I had (and still have) on d1 stronger than average compared to those 5 reads.
And not to mention that I have given a SHITLOAD of explanations why Sandroba is mafia
Sandroba on the other hand does nothing, gets in the thread telling people "lulz toad is 100% mafia" while telling me I've got some arbitrary number on how likely he is to flip (the pun is Sandroba saying "100% mafia") without giving a reason for something like 7 days in a row (when did this game start?. And now he gets in here and repeats what snarfs said about me which doesn't make it any right.

So basicly everything he said about me is completly wrong and he labels me as a 100% mafia while everything he "pointed out" about me perfectly fits his own play this game. This guy is ridiculous and no way is he going to flip town.
I'd say he picked traitor to be in a good position either way once he realized he's dead last in the draft:
You either confirm there's a traitor for town while being town (which would be awesome) or you get to be a traitor in a game where 1/3 of all people are anti-town.

Just take into consideration we're dealing with Sandroba here. That guy is probably top3 or top5 of the best town players ON TL. Does this Sandroba you see in this game feel like a "holy shit that's BY FAR the best townie in the game and he already figured out 2 or 3 mafias by the end of d1"? Let's give him a bad day excuse just for the lulz: Does this guy feel like top 3 townies in this game?
Because that's what Sandroba usually does when getting town. He destroys mafia within 1 or 2 cycles tops, which is the reason mafia always shoots him n1. I'm not taking the "mafia shoot him n1" as an argument at all because if I'm really wrong and those something like 30% really happen and he's town he's entirely useless this game for whatever reason, but that's not town Sandroba. Town Sandroba is lazy as shit but still figures out mafia in a heartbeat without posting and giving a case on d1, n1 or d2 that is DEAD END correct on at least 2 mafias.

sandroba Brazil. May 27 2012 07:41. Posts 3115

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Thanks for all the praise but in this game scum hunting was not really needed. Day1 we had a dayvigi shoot into mafia then a mistake that lead us to lynch one more scum. Then paqman got shot and we had to deal with hiro/barundar. Now mafia + traitor are pretty much between 4 candidates with 2 being way more likely (you+zeph). Not like I need half a brain or even post in here to get what needs to be done done.

chaoser United States. May 27 2012 12:21. Posts 5538

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Day 4

Finally, the time had come for you. And though you were disappointed that your role in this game was coming to an end, at least now you could rest. No more running, no more lying, no more tricking others. You could finally be with...him.

You close your eyes slowly as your life drifted out of your body...

Barundar the Serial Killer Politician has been lynched

Night has begun, be sure to get in your actions to me! Ends tomorrow at 11 PM EST!

Last edit: 2012-05-27 22:44:09

Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.

Qatol United States. May 28 2012 01:40. Posts 3010

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Tough luck, Barundar. You really didn't have much of a chance this game other than the gamble you tried for in Day 3.

Anyways, with him flipping SK, we know for sure that we are looking for a mafia (Misder) or a mafia and a traitor (if Misder is not mafia). I think the latter case is more likely.

We have 10 townies and 1 mafia or 9 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 traitor left. This means we have 2 mislynches and 1 missed vigi hit (assuming the mafia doesn't hit the traitor) to burn. This is obviously changed if we kill the mafia sooner. risk.nuke, please tell us who you will be shooting tonight. I recommend Zephirdd, however, I'd like to hear Snarfs's opinion on Misder.

Who wins if we have 1 townie and 1 traitor remaining? Is it a draw?

Uff Da

Zephirdd Brazil. May 28 2012 02:05. Posts 4476

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Qatol, if its 1v1 I think scum(and traitor) wins.

Shooting me a is misfire btw.

♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥

marvellosity United Kingdom. May 28 2012 03:53. Posts 11103

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On May 28 2012 01:40 Qatol wrote:
Tough luck, Barundar. You really didn't have much of a chance this game other than the gamble you tried for in Day 3.

Anyways, with him flipping SK, we know for sure that we are looking for a mafia (Misder) or a mafia and a traitor (if Misder is not mafia). I think the latter case is more likely.

We have 10 townies and 1 mafia or 9 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 traitor left. This means we have 2 mislynches and 1 missed vigi hit (assuming the mafia doesn't hit the traitor) to burn. This is obviously changed if we kill the mafia sooner. risk.nuke, please tell us who you will be shooting tonight. I recommend Zephirdd, however, I'd like to hear Snarfs's opinion on Misder.

Who wins if we have 1 townie and 1 traitor remaining? Is it a draw?

I may have missed this, but why are you so set on Misder?

I disagree with myself - kushm4sta

Snarfs Canada. May 28 2012 06:56. Posts 764

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On May 28 2012 03:53 marvellosity wrote:
I may have missed this, but why are you so set on Misder?

Because risk.nuke is claiming to have been roleblocked and we know Misder is a roleblocker. If there is no traitor, then Misder must have roleblocked risk.nuke or risk.nuke is lying. That is why.

@Qatol: I would shoot zephirdd tonight. I see Toad as more of a Traitor role than a scum role. If neither of those two are scum, then I would definitely consider lynching Misder.

risk.nuke Sweden. May 28 2012 08:27. Posts 2763

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I find it ~~massivly unlikely~~ impossible that Misder would roleblock me to protect the SK.

Neo.G Soulkey, Best, firebathero. // http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31

Qatol United States. May 28 2012 10:32. Posts 3010

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On May 28 2012 08:27 risk.nuke wrote:
I find it ~~massivly unlikely~~ impossible that Misder would roleblock me to protect the SK.

It is unlikely. That being said, I'm trying to make sure that nothing can surprise us at this point. And it definitely is in the mafia's best interest to roleblock you to protect the SK.

Uff Da

marvellosity United Kingdom. May 28 2012 10:34. Posts 11103

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On May 28 2012 10:32 Qatol wrote:

Show nested quote +

It is unlikely. That being said, I'm trying to make sure that nothing can surprise us at this point. And it definitely is in the mafia's best interest to roleblock you to protect the SK.

I disagree, Barundar was getting lynched the next day if the shot didn't go through 100%.

Risking a roleblock in this situation as Misder would be insanity.

I disagree with myself - kushm4sta

Misder United States. May 28 2012 10:42. Posts 1017

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I will be roleblocking whoever I think is traitor. I think it would be better if I roleblock someone different from whoever risk is shooting.

Whaaaa?

Misder United States. May 28 2012 10:47. Posts 1017

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Also, is there any danger in risk or me claiming who we are targetting?

Whaaaa?

chaoser United States. May 28 2012 12:20. Posts 5538

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Night 4