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Newbie Mini XIV - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 All
 
 sciberbia   United States. May 24 2012 19:34. Posts 784
Profile # 
@skware
Welcome to the game

@Release
I don't think my actions require a lot of explaining. If you read over the posts, you'll see I was working hard to promote objectives of the town: decide who we think as a group is the most scummy and lynch them. I focused the conversation on hegeo and milton, the 2 most likely lynch candidates. If hegeo had made his giant post 15 minutes earlier, I probably would have pushed milton, but with 5 minutes left? I don't see how you can hold it against me for helping to organize a lynch on someone who we all (especially you) thought was suspicious.

@Release
@Golden
I didn't appreciate that you guys were unavailable around the deadline. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you had important things to do, but a townie would have strong interest to make sure we get a good lynch. Being absent during voting is more consistent with mafia objectives: not caring who gets lynch as long as its not mafia. And if its a no-lynch, even better. Does anyone else see this as suspicious?
Old Post

 
 s0Lstice   United States. May 24 2012 22:02. Posts 925
Profile # 
skware: welcome to the game. I'm a little terrified that if you are mafia, you had a free day of lurking ;D

It's going to be a busy day at work for me so I'll be out of action until late afternoon/early evening. My plan for then is to have a long look at hegeo's final accusation post and the corresponding defense posts.
how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 00:14. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
@Sciberia
MEntioned it twice now. Busy with RL. Don't turn this into WIFOM.

We had a majority, did we not? (5/9)
WHy would you ask for the others to join us as well? If they didn't and we suddenly had a nolynch, we instantly know who is scum. THere is just no point for doing this considering how far away we are from LYLO.
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 00:17. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
EBWOP:+ Show Spoiler +
Old Post

 
 skware   United States. May 25 2012 00:56. Posts 6
Profile # 

On May 25 2012 00:14 Release wrote:
@Sciberia
MEntioned it twice now. Busy with RL. Don't turn this into WIFOM.

We had a majority, did we not? (5/9)
WHy would you ask for the others to join us as well? If they didn't and we suddenly had a nolynch, we instantly know who is scum. THere is just no point for doing this considering how far away we are from LYLO.


Nolynch is preferable to lynching a blue. The fact that you disagree with that is pretty scummy.
Old Post

 
 sciberbia   United States. May 25 2012 01:03. Posts 784
Profile # 
@Release
I guess the question is: if somebody had jumped off the bandwagon, does that help town? Obviously it does if he is blue, but we of course didn't know that at the time. I don't think the answer is so clear-cut. If you disagree, that's fine. I'm just explaining what I was thinking at the time. It was a little hectic and I had one clear goal in mind: get a lynch on hegeo/milton by 7:30.

I still fail to see how my actions implicate me as mafia. Will you please either rescind your accusation against me or tell me what mafia motive you think I have for getting a 6th vote on hegeo?

@skware
Are you talking to me or release? I don't see where either of us claimed that lynching a blue is better than no-lynch. Please explain.
Old Post

 
 skware   United States. May 25 2012 01:34. Posts 6
Profile # 
@sciberia i was refering to this back and forth


If hegeo had made his giant post 15 minutes earlier, I probably would have pushed milton, but with 5 minutes left? I don't see how you can hold it against me for helping to organize a lynch on someone who we all (especially you) thought was suspicious.


and

We had a majority, did we not? (5/9)
WHy would you ask for the others to join us as well? If they didn't and we suddenly had a nolynch, we instantly know who is scum. THere is just no point for doing this considering how far away we are from LYLO.



Where release says he wouldnt have been for changing his vote even if hegeo's post had come out earlier.
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 02:13. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 

On May 25 2012 00:56 skware wrote:

Show nested quote +



Nolynch is preferable to lynching a blue. The fact that you disagree with that is pretty scummy.

where did i mention i wanted to lynch a blue? You aren't contributing by posting random shit.
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 02:15. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
EBWOP: I wouldn't change my vote because hegeo was suspected scum. Why would i change my vote based on what scum says?
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 02:22. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
@sciberia


On May 24 2012 08:05 ShiaoPi wrote:
So with all the switches we are now at

Milton: Me
Hegeo: Release, Mordanis, sciberbia, solstice, milton
Mufaa: hegeo

Not-voting: Golden, Mufaa

I do admit Hegeo's absence is highly suspicious although it may be timezonerelated it is 1:00AM right now in CEST. But he had plenty of time beforehand.

so let's say ShiaoPi is townie (for this case) and switches to hegeo. hegeo 6. Then milton switches and hegeo 5. Milton could claim that he is just screwing around because the majority is still there. Then ShiaoPi (or whoever else) has a change of heart and switches back to whom he has suspected all along and continued to suspect. That would leave ShiaoPi with a lot of suspicion and Miilton with less.
I haven't acused you yet. Merely pointing suspicion.


+ Show Spoiler +

I still say we look at milton because he still has a substantial case against him.
Old Post

 
 Miltonkram   United States. May 25 2012 06:12. Posts 310
Profile # 
I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances.

Mafia + Mafia
Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely.

Townie + Townie
If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M.

Townie + Mafia
Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation.

That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone?
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 08:13. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 

On May 25 2012 06:12 Miltonkram wrote:
I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances.

Mafia + Mafia
Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely.

Townie + Townie
If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M.

Townie + Mafia
Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation.

That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good.
Thoughts on this anyone?

Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch?
Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched.
This is so full of shit and scum.

Mafia + Mafia: No. I have already posted on what the Mafia were actually doing when i was roasting hegeo:
The Mafia were trying to split our attention between two cases (Hegeo vs Milton/ShiaoPi/Solstice). Then you post some WIFOM filler (not a big deal since you actually posted some analysis)
Townie + Townie: Who's been playing scummy since hegeo's reveal? Mordanis knee-jerked, not me.
I posted an analytical response to hegeo's post and why the new guy was playing rather poorly. Also, i was the only one to point out that Hegeo's post mysteriously did not have a #5.
Townie + Mafia: Mordanis and i both had our own separate cases against Hegeo. There was a small overlap, but we had our own ideas, just against the same person. When that happens, it tends to look bad for that person.

Note that i am not refuting either of TT or TM yet, just pointing out the misinformation you are posting.

And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you?

Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself.

##FOS: Milton
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 08:17. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 

On May 24 2012 00:45 Release wrote:
So right from the start, Milton acts like a Mafia:
+ Show Spoiler +
Makes a post to exclude himself from the lurkers when he doesn't provide anything useful.

+ Show Spoiler +
Repeats ideas already mentioned and seems perfectly content to let Sciberia take some heat. This is very early so this post probably helped generate discussion but again, it wasn't anything new to us.

+ Show Spoiler +
The 10% they don't know is the roles which townie/scum reads doesn't give them. You appear to be trying to trick us into stopping the townies from spreading useful information.

+ Show Spoiler +
seems kind of like an excuse for a scum slip to me. This is very vague and you don't seem to have a goal with this post.

+ Show Spoiler +
This post is interesting because Solstice does look inconsistent with his play. Milton calls him out but he doesn't

posting this now cause ran out of time. Will continue.


On May 24 2012 00:56 Release wrote:
EBWOP: ... Calls him out but he doesn't apply any REAL pressure. Not asking for a response of any kind. The FOS appears to be for courtesy rather than pressure.

At this point, SOlstice's defense appears to be much more solid than your accusations, which is saying something because accusations are typed without pressure whereas defenses are typed under pressure.

+ Show Spoiler +
Plucking at straws. He realizes that his arguement against solstice is fruitless so he points the torch at ShaoPi. He concerns over defense when SHaoPi aims towards pointing out scum. In Mafia, pointing out scum is more valuable than hugging fellow townies. Why wouldn't you want him to point out scum? If he has a stronger case than your case against him, the town will lynch for his case, rather than yours, thus providing a strong defense. Your post is illogical.
The rest of the post is useless filler.

+ Show Spoiler +
pure crap. Voting for the lurker on D1 is never a good idea when there are obvious scum targets at hand. Very wishy-washy with his constant change in thought. Trying to confuse the town?

i'll stop here because i ran out of time for real this time, but if i had to switch away from Hegeo, you would be my next target.

Milton, you scumbag, respond to these. From long time ago and you still haven't responded.
Too bad i was still focussed on Hegeo after i posted this... But that's what you wanted isn't it? You split the town's attention so that there would be two cases and i wouldn't focus as closely on one as i would the other.
Old Post

 
 sciberbia   United States. May 25 2012 08:29. Posts 784
Profile # 
One of s0lstice's posts really caught my attention. I just want to point it out now in case I'm dead in 10 minutes. In the minutes leading up to the deadline yesterday, hegeo made his final post: a giant, well-formed accusation of Release and Mordanis. At the time, me, milton, mordanis, shiaopi, and solstice were online. Everybody but solstice seemed a bit taken aback at the situation. Hegeo's post made him look town, but none of us were really sure what to think. Here are our reactions:

me: + Show Spoiler +

Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +

Mordanis: + Show Spoiler +

ShiaoPi: + Show Spoiler +

s0sltice: + Show Spoiler +

I find it suspicious that s0sltice was so sure hegeo is town, and had a quick explanation for hegeo's behavior. Only the mafia actually knew for a fact the he was town.

I looked through solstice's filter and didn't find anything else I had an issue with, so I'm not prepared to say he is definitely scum, but it really strikes me as something suspcious. Again, just wanted to put it out there in case I die.
Old Post

 
 VisceraEyes   United States. May 25 2012 08:32. Posts 9718
Profile Blog # 
Day 2
[image loading]


Twas the night before Friday and all through the house, not a creature was stirring…except for the two scummy bastards killing people. After a quick glance, you realize one of your member has indeed not joined you.

sciberbia the Vanilla Townie has been…taken care of.

You have ~48 hours from this post to decide who you wish to destroy next.
Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET****
Old Post

 
 sciberbia   United States. May 25 2012 08:33. Posts 784
Profile # 
Thanks all for playing. gg
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 08:35. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
GG
Old Post

 
 Miltonkram   United States. May 25 2012 09:04. Posts 310
Profile # 
gg sciberbia
Old Post

 
 Miltonkram   United States. May 25 2012 10:20. Posts 310
Profile # 
@ Release- Misinformation? Where? All I'm trying to do is explain the assumption that I'll be working from as I analyze you and Mordanis's posts. In my post I was stating all the possibilities so that I could begin eliminating those possibilities that are less likely. From this point on, I am assuming that between the two of you (Release, Mordanis), I'm pretty sure one of you is scum and one of you is town.

Let me restate this plainly: I don't think both of you are mafia. I don't think both of you are town. I think one of you is mafia and one of you is town.

I believe this for the reasons I stated in my last long post.



On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote:
---snip
Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch?
Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched.
This is so full of shit and scum.

No, of course I don't think lynching is completely random. I was shortening my reasoning because it wasn't the main thrust of my post. If we did just flip a coin deciding to lynch you or Mordanis, I say we'd have a 50/50 chance to hit mafia. We can do better than that though, with good analysis we'll find out which one of you is scum.



On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote:
---snip
And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you?

Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself.

##FOS: Milton

Holy crap, stop playing so defensively. I'm not even sure if you're the half of the duo that's scum. I'm just laying the groundwork for my analysis of your (you and Mordanis's) posting. Also stop labeling any analysis you disagree with as WIFOM. I think you may be the one who doesn't understand its definition.

Since Release seems impervious to reason, I'll put this out to the rest of the town. I don't care if you think I'm scum or not, the points I made in my post were good ones. Do you disagree with the assumptions I'm making? If you do it's best to speak up now, because I plan on basing my later analysis on these assumptions.
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. May 25 2012 10:28. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later.

The mafia wouldn't do this. It's too obvious and scummy. Oh, so they might do this to trick us. But maybe they think that they will trick us so they just stick to the original plan, and what if the town thought of that? Shit, let's switch...
WIFOM
Old Post

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