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| alypse Vietnam. May 26 2012 14:25. Posts 2519 | Profile # |
On May 25 2012 16:08 Caihead wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Christ Alypse is still going at this?
On May 25 2012 14:37 baubo wrote:
I'm pretty sure alypse is just trolling now. The fact that he has a KT icon and disagree with Flash's decision, a decision Flash made knowing exactly Jangbi's build, pretty much tells you all you need to know.
It has nothing to do with it being flash and Alypse being a KT fan. Any legitimate progamer who's good at TvP wouldn't make that decision to tech switch, nor would any fan regardless of team say that a tech switch is better than trying to break the protoss' natural with a bio mech force. If you want to fault flash fault him for trying a difficult to pull off build to break a 2 gate transition, when the barracks were placed down and he cut scvs and jangbi went for templar archive and saw flash's build it was already over. Flash was pretty much banking on jangbi doing a double expand or transition into bull dog after the 2 gate pressure for his build to work, and jangbi was banking on flash not making academy (flash isn't likely to at that time unless he did a weird bio mech build which he did) or engineering bay (flash isn't likely to at that time unless he assumes templar archives). It's not even that flash got meta gamed by jangbi, templar follow up is a possible follow up out of 2 gate, it's just that he guessed wrong and it was beyond recovery once jangbi saw the barracks. Can I just point to a different recent game where a player placed at a disadvantage due to "bad" early decisions played well after and it simply didn't matter and couldn't transition because the disadvantage was too big? http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/games/115835_Action_vs_firebathero/vodIn this case Action was planning a lurker contain / break on FBH and unfortunately for him FBH went blind mech with speed vultures and it completely raped his drone count starting at the 8:00 minute mark. At the 10 minute mark it finally got cleaned up and Action tries to lurker contain FBH, but FBH was ahead on econ and had a mech army going. At this point Action starts taking his third, and numerous people were saying in the forums "why doesn't action tech to hive, he needs to tech to hive to win". Completely ignoring the fact that at this point action has vision of FBH and knows the tech timings. It takes 60+120 seconds for queen's nest and hive to finish, another 60 seconds for defiler mound and 100 seconds for consume. And as you can see at the 13 minute mark FBH was already trying to siege up to the 9 o'clock, threatening action's potential third, any potential third at the corners, and his natural. Action had no options but to hold a push and make something happen because the timing simply doesn't allow him to tech up to defilers, and he had no gas to support defiler / lurker. Same reason why he didn't take the gas after the 3rd went up because he understands his only chance is to hit the terran's natural / third with drop play and pray he gets enough kills to come back in the game. Because he can't turtle up on 3 bases since the terran has complete map control and would just deny him additional bases, as well as him having no ability to deny the terran taking extra bases. Unfortunately for him FBH took the 3 o'clock expansion instead of the 5 o'clock (you can clearly see he meant for the 3 o'clock drop to go to the natural) and had adequate drop defense. His only possible attempt to win was doing some miraculous drop play to wipe the mineral lines but it got stopped, the advantage was just too big and FBH won. What you are suggesting sounds exactly like what people were suggesting action to do to tech up to hive, any player who understands the player's vision as well as what they know from timings knows that Action can't simply tech to hive, it would have taken him a whole 340 seconds (i.e. 5 minutes and 40 seconds) from minute 10 to get swarms out and FBH would have either expanded uncontrollably or just killed him during that absence of gas units. Exactly the same with Flash vs Jangbi, Flash's build got hard countered, he lost workers, and he can't transition out of it at all because of the timings. And in this case Flash didn't even have the gas income to support a possible switch because of the build, at least you could have argued that Action had the gas income to support the transition to hive. Yea, action could have teched to hive, and by some miracle stall FBH with distractions, back stabs, pimp stop lurkers like he did, zergling run bys, and then defended with swarms past the 16 minute mark. But again FBH could have just expanded at will during the time and Action had no vision of what FBH was doing, much like flash had no way of knowing what Jangbi was doing. And Flash would have had no way of taking another base if Jangbi was paying atttention at all since Jangbi had map hax (dt's) to see if Flash was going to expand / turtle with mines like you suggested / move out for a push; just like Action had no way to take another base even with defiler tech because FBH had map control. The matter of the fact is what Flash / Action did, though sub-optimal and bad by themselves as prepared strategies, was the best that they could do. Flash / Action weren't / physically couldn't have known about the strategies of the opponent and got hard countered, and all they could have done was continue with the build, other options would have just lead to them losing any ways. Pro-gamers all-in for specific reasons, and some times they work, some times a progamer does try a tech transition and makes it work, I'm not saying that it's IMPOSSIBLE to win with a tech switch like you suggested. Hell maybe Jangbi got a power outage and because Flash dragged the game out he got a regame or something, maybe Flash's mouse stopped working (lol), maybe Jangbi went rapid expand after he saw mine turtle and flash miraculously defended his third and ended the game with perfect micro out of a 3 base doom push with delayed upgrades and tech. But there's a higher chance of Flash winning with his given build, even though it's a bad one if you just judge it by itself. If your options are to do something with 20% success rate and 10% success rate, even if the 20% is a F- grade you still have to try it because it's still better than a 10%.
Thanks for spending time to analyze that game. However isn't it a bit irrelevant since we all know that Zerg is the race always has to be on the offensive side, they simply cannot turtle, at least in pro level? And most importantly that's still TvZ, there are simply too many different factors that make the two situations incomparable.
Still, thanks for your effort, I appreciate that.
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| | KT Violet 1988 - 2012 |  |
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| Baddieko Singapore. May 27 2012 00:00. Posts 842 | Profile # |
On May 25 2012 13:29 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 25 2012 13:20 Scarecrow wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On May 25 2012 12:25 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 25 2012 09:12 Scarecrow wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On May 25 2012 07:35 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 25 2012 03:03 Caihead wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 22:42 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 22:25 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 19:40 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 19:28 Caihead wrote:
On May 23 2012 19:14 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 19:07 Caihead wrote:
On May 23 2012 19:04 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 18:55 Caihead wrote:
On May 23 2012 18:45 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 18:15 Caihead wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 18:08 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 18:01 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 17:57 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 17:53 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 17:18 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 17:10 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 16:53 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 15:39 Scarecrow wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 14:09 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 09:31 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 00:12 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 22:23 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:26 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:17 Caihead wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:11 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:07 Caihead wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:05 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:01 Caihead wrote:
[quote]
From in-game logic, if you were presented with these facts, this is what you would think is happening. It's not about what we the observers can see but rather flash's decision based on limited information is a logical one with a high probability of being correct. If flash could predict everything correctly then he really would be god
Well of course I don't think he's that godly or expect that he would absolutely win that game. I'm saying instead of keep going for a sure-fire way to lose (bio against DTs/templars), he could've done something else that had a much higher chance for winning.
He had a higher chance of losing if he opted for barracks / research cancels and put scvs back on gas and started making 3 more factories and upgrading mines / speed out of the 1 machine shop. If you can suggest something be my guest?
How come he had a higher chance of losing? I already said this a few pages back, and now you're going back to where you began. Jangbi opted for DTs opening AND expanded before DTs attack. So?
Because Flash can't check if Jangbi expanded because he can't spare scans due to DT's, so he has to play in the blind, and the higher probability is that jangbi continued production out of the >=2 gates he has for a break at Flash's natural. Stopping production of marines and going factories would mean a huge gap in how many units he has on the field vs Jangbi's in that hypothetical situation. He would lose almost certainly. In the event that Jangbi did expand, flash still had a chance with the bio mech build he had to break jangbi's natural. He tried to, but jangbi delayed him enough. If someone asked you "I saw no natural and fast dragoons so I responded with Marine / medic / tank, then I saw DT's", would you tell him "cancel your marine / medic / research / barracks and make factories/ start mines and vulture speed research even though your timing with those are incredibly behind"?
Flash can't check? How about using your units to scout instead of relying on early precious scans? And to confirm it, Jangbi DID expand and as 2 gates at that time. And about your hypothetical chance of breaking P's nat, we all see how good that chance was. "He tried to, but jangbi delayed him enough" - Of course your opponent would not just sit there letting you do whatever you want. Isn't this the point of it - if the tactics is not very viable, your should choose another way? In the end you still can't prove that going bio is the best way for Flash. Like I said, and I hope don't have to repeat this again, bio is the worst possible choice for Flash at that situation.
Seriously how are you this dense? Bio was the only viable option after the dt's arrived. There is no transition from where flash was (he'd already built 3 medics to build up energy with only 5 marines) and you'd know this if you had any grasp of the mu. He basically had to scan his way across the map and kill the toss before storm research finished. Any sort of transition back to mech would've resulted in ridiculously late mines, a cripplingly low tank/vulture count vs a high calibre toss that's 2 buildings off arbiters with total map control, no immediate need for obs, a citadel already up for speedlots and the freedom to expand at will.
Do you know how stupid and ignorant you are saying that "Bio was the only viable option after the dt's arrived"? If you look closely at the situation, as I said before, Jangbi was building up his nat, has 2 gates and was producing DTs non-stop. All Flash had to do was to prevent Jangbi from getting intelligence about his base. And with the DT rush, Jangbi's not so much ahead of Flash, so it would not be a ridiculously big gap in the two's armies. Also, there's a big chance that Jangbi thinks Flash will go for a bio-mech push, and will prepare to defend instead of attacking (which he actually did). And since he won't produce obs for a while, mines will do very well in defending Flash's nat.
I don't know how you can call Caihead and I ignorant when you're spewing forth this fantasy theorycraft. You simply can't cancel 2 rax at 90% (he can't cancel until the dt in the main is dead) THEN start building factories after going 3 medics and expect to have any sort of timing window to push or take a third. Sure you can survive longer but with 0 chance of winning vs someone like Jangbi. Time is the third resource in bw and you can't delay your 2nd+ production facilities by that much for no advantage (tech/third). The templar tech doesn't hurt jangbi at all, it's exactly what he needs for arbiters, storm or zealot speed. Once he'd scouted the first vulture of a switch back to mech with his dt's he would've been rofl'ing in his booth. From Jangbi's interview: "You had a big advantage during the game. ▶ Our openings were all very aggressive (?), but this was good for me. When I saw him going for a bionic build, I knew I won."
You are really ignorant because the only thing you think to be true is your own theorycraft. You sound very certain "you simply can't" "0 chance of winning"... but you have no evidence at all when you're spewing forth this fantasy of your own. Go to Iccup, play a game with a situation like that and send me the replay to prove it's the best possible choice. Oh wait, your opponent is not Jangbi, and you're not Flash. And now you're going from "you're can't because Flash already had all the raxs up" to "you can't cancel the 2rax", and that Citadel "doesn't hurt Jangbi at all". Well I already said it, with DTs continuously produced and his nat being built up (and the possibility that he doesn't know what happens on Flash side), it would be a better choice for Flash to go the other way instead of the suicidal method - bio-mech against Dts and storms.
My evidence: Flash, the best RTS'er in the world and Terran revolutionist thought it was the best move to stick with bio even when scouted. Jangbi, one of the best PvT'ers on the planet said he knew it was over as soon as he saw the medics. My own experience of playing tons of games on ICCUP (including bio tvp's) & watching pretty much every pro TvP in the last 5 years outside of prelims. Everyone else who's replied also thinks you have nfi. Basically you don't understand the mu and how terribad a switch back to factory tech would've been at that point. Your theorycrafting ends at, get mines, defend 2 base and survive a bit longer. So tell me at what point in this game does Flash have a timing to push/take a third without getting steamrolled? Your evidence: personal theorycrafting
On May 23 2012 14:53 baubo wrote:
If you watch any decent number of PvTs, that is an insurmountable lead for protoss, who could expand with impunity knowing that the terran army can't possibly push out for ages. By the time Flash could take his 3rd, Jangbi would simply crush him with 1a2a3a. And this isn't even counting arbiters that would be out.
You should listen to this guy
Don't tell me the decision to go dropship play vs Fantasy wraith-valks and not using vultures vs Bisu is what the top Terran of the world should make.
I assumed you'd be one of those clueless theorycrafters blaming that loss on flash being stupid and not massing vultures off his 2 factories when he was vs'ing dragoon reaver. Even if he somehow holds the zealots he has a tank count of 1-2 vs a 3 base toss and a grand total of 2 factories (i.e. dead). I'm done with this thread anyway, there's clearly no convincing you as you seem to have only the most basic understanding of how the game works.
I'm afraid the clueless theorycrafter here is you, since that's not the purpose of using vultures in that game. Just 2 or 3 vultures lay mines in front of his nat would most probably prevent the fatal zealot stream into his base, causing the GG. The thing he needs is some mines, he doesn't need to mass vultures. But let's just stop at that. I also want to end the argument here, since you keep ignoring every facts I present and this will lead to nowhere.
Your answer to everything seems to be get really behind, get vultures, mine up the nat and hope your opponent is D-
And yours seems to be ignoring everything else other than your opinion. Not to mention the one playing here is Flash.
You're the one saying what Flash did was wrong. Also I'm listening to everyone else's opinion (Turbovolver, Caihead, Endy and others), the only one in disagreement is yours.
.... What I meant was it's Flash defending if he did choose not to commit to bio. And I have seen several times in this forum alone when not everybody has the same opinion; when few disagree with the majority.
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 18:00 Caihead wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 17:57 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 17:53 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 17:18 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 17:10 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 16:53 alypse wrote:
On May 23 2012 15:39 Scarecrow wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 14:09 alypse wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 09:31 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 23 2012 00:12 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 22:23 Scarecrow wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:26 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:17 Caihead wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:11 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:07 Caihead wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:05 alypse wrote:
On May 22 2012 21:01 Caihead wrote:
[quote]
From in-game logic, if you were presented with these facts, this is what you would think is happening. It's not about what we the observers can see but rather flash's decision based on limited information is a logical one with a high probability of being correct. If flash could predict everything correctly then he really would be god
Well of course I don't think he's that godly or expect that he would absolutely win that game. I'm saying instead of keep going for a sure-fire way to lose (bio against DTs/templars), he could've done something else that had a much higher chance for winning.
He had a higher chance of losing if he opted for barracks / research cancels and put scvs back on gas and started making 3 more factories and upgrading mines / speed out of the 1 machine shop. If you can suggest something be my guest?
How come he had a higher chance of losing? I already said this a few pages back, and now you're going back to where you began. Jangbi opted for DTs opening AND expanded before DTs attack. So?
Because Flash can't check if Jangbi expanded because he can't spare scans due to DT's, so he has to play in the blind, and the higher probability is that jangbi continued production out of the >=2 gates he has for a break at Flash's natural. Stopping production of marines and going factories would mean a huge gap in how many units he has on the field vs Jangbi's in that hypothetical situation. He would lose almost certainly. In the event that Jangbi did expand, flash still had a chance with the bio mech build he had to break jangbi's natural. He tried to, but jangbi delayed him enough. If someone asked you "I saw no natural and fast dragoons so I responded with Marine / medic / tank, then I saw DT's", would you tell him "cancel your marine / medic / research / barracks and make factories/ start mines and vulture speed research even though your timing with those are incredibly behind"?
Flash can't check? How about using your units to scout instead of relying on early precious scans? And to confirm it, Jangbi DID expand and as 2 gates at that time. And about your hypothetical chance of breaking P's nat, we all see how good that chance was. "He tried to, but jangbi delayed him enough" - Of course your opponent would not just sit there letting you do whatever you want. Isn't this the point of it - if the tactics is not very viable, your should choose another way? In the end you still can't prove that going bio is the best way for Flash. Like I said, and I hope don't have to repeat this again, bio is the worst possible choice for Flash at that situation.
Seriously how are you this dense? Bio was the only viable option after the dt's arrived. There is no transition from where flash was (he'd already built 3 medics to build up energy with only 5 marines) and you'd know this if you had any grasp of the mu. He basically had to scan his way across the map and kill the toss before storm research finished. Any sort of transition back to mech would've resulted in ridiculously late mines, a cripplingly low tank/vulture count vs a high calibre toss that's 2 buildings off arbiters with total map control, no immediate need for obs, a citadel already up for speedlots and the freedom to expand at will.
Do you know how stupid and ignorant you are saying that "Bio was the only viable option after the dt's arrived"? If you look closely at the situation, as I said before, Jangbi was building up his nat, has 2 gates and was producing DTs non-stop. All Flash had to do was to prevent Jangbi from getting intelligence about his base. And with the DT rush, Jangbi's not so much ahead of Flash, so it would not be a ridiculously big gap in the two's armies. Also, there's a big chance that Jangbi thinks Flash will go for a bio-mech push, and will prepare to defend instead of attacking (which he actually did). And since he won't produce obs for a while, mines will do very well in defending Flash's nat.
I don't know how you can call Caihead and I ignorant when you're spewing forth this fantasy theorycraft. You simply can't cancel 2 rax at 90% (he can't cancel until the dt in the main is dead) THEN start building factories after going 3 medics and expect to have any sort of timing window to push or take a third. Sure you can survive longer but with 0 chance of winning vs someone like Jangbi. Time is the third resource in bw and you can't delay your 2nd+ production facilities by that much for no advantage (tech/third). The templar tech doesn't hurt jangbi at all, it's exactly what he needs for arbiters, storm or zealot speed. Once he'd scouted the first vulture of a switch back to mech with his dt's he would've been rofl'ing in his booth. From Jangbi's interview: "You had a big advantage during the game. ▶ Our openings were all very aggressive (?), but this was good for me. When I saw him going for a bionic build, I knew I won."
You are really ignorant because the only thing you think to be true is your own theorycraft. You sound very certain "you simply can't" "0 chance of winning"... but you have no evidence at all when you're spewing forth this fantasy of your own. Go to Iccup, play a game with a situation like that and send me the replay to prove it's the best possible choice. Oh wait, your opponent is not Jangbi, and you're not Flash. And now you're going from "you're can't because Flash already had all the raxs up" to "you can't cancel the 2rax", and that Citadel "doesn't hurt Jangbi at all". Well I already said it, with DTs continuously produced and his nat being built up (and the possibility that he doesn't know what happens on Flash side), it would be a better choice for Flash to go the other way instead of the suicidal method - bio-mech against Dts and storms.
My evidence: Flash, the best RTS'er in the world and Terran revolutionist thought it was the best move to stick with bio even when scouted. Jangbi, one of the best PvT'ers on the planet said he knew it was over as soon as he saw the medics. My own experience of playing tons of games on ICCUP (including bio tvp's) & watching pretty much every pro TvP in the last 5 years outside of prelims. Everyone else who's replied also thinks you have nfi. Basically you don't understand the mu and how terribad a switch back to factory tech would've been at that point. Your theorycrafting ends at, get mines, defend 2 base and survive a bit longer. So tell me at what point in this game does Flash have a timing to push/take a third without getting steamrolled? Your evidence: personal theorycrafting
On May 23 2012 14:53 baubo wrote:
If you watch any decent number of PvTs, that is an insurmountable lead for protoss, who could expand with impunity knowing that the terran army can't possibly push out for ages. By the time Flash could take his 3rd, Jangbi would simply crush him with 1a2a3a. And this isn't even counting arbiters that would be out.
You should listen to this guy
Don't tell me the decision to go dropship play vs Fantasy wraith-valks and not using vultures vs Bisu is what the top Terran of the world should make.
I assumed you'd be one of those clueless theorycrafters blaming that loss on flash being stupid and not massing vultures off his 2 factories when he was vs'ing dragoon reaver. Even if he somehow holds the zealots he has a tank count of 1-2 vs a 3 base toss and a grand total of 2 factories (i.e. dead). I'm done with this thread anyway, there's clearly no convincing you as you seem to have only the most basic understanding of how the game works.
I'm afraid the clueless theorycrafter here is you, since that's not the purpose of using vultures in that game. Just 2 or 3 vultures lay mines in front of his nat would most probably prevent the fatal zealot stream into his base, causing the GG. The thing he needs is some mines, he doesn't need to mass vultures. But let's just stop at that. I also want to end the argument here, since you keep ignoring every facts I present and this will lead to nowhere.
Your answer to everything seems to be get really behind, get vultures, mine up the nat and hope your opponent is D-
And yours seems to be ignoring everything else other than your opinion. Not to mention the one playing here is Flash.
... and your ignoring the opinions of two progamers, flash and jangbi.
I don't even know what to say about this. You're just arguing for the sake of argue, not to get to the point....
I'm arguing because Jangbi was right, and that his opinion is proven by logical induction (his experience and logical thought process concluded that he already won when he saw the barracks because he understands PvT from the protoss perspective and knows the terran can't beat his build or transition out of it) as well as empirical evidence (he won). Flash's opinion also matters because he's consistently been the top 1-2 terran in the world as well as having top 1-3 TvP as well as having personal stake in winning the match. Flash's opinion isn't wrong just because he lost a game where he had nothing but bad luck (scouting jangbi last resulting in it being denied, going bio to counter mass dragoons and having jangbi go templar tech) and disadvantages (losing scvs with an econ build, having no time or resources to transition out of his build). I'm trying to invoke professional (and it is professional, these people are professional gamers at the top of the food chain) credibility to add to my argument. What is your point? I'm backing my opinion up with facts, statistics, build analysis, and showing why from the player's perspective these choices make sense. What you've done is insist on a build switch which is completely illogical. How about this Alypse. Can you try to find an instance where any player, any player at all, canceled his production / tech structures entirely to start another build at a much delayed timing? Because there are hundreds of instances where players have WON with a weaker or non optimal build that they kept going even after being scouted / countered because they can't transition out of it. Show me something in the contrary.
Of course Jangbi could just say anything once he's won. All your facts, stats, analysis... make as much sense as mine do to me. The point is (I don't know how many times I have said this), there's nothing to prove that committing to bio is not the worst way for Flash. and I am suggesting that going for the other strategy would probably result in a higher chance of winning. Why? I explained it before, don't wanna waste my time write it down again. I don't think I can find a situation like this when a T intends to do a switch the moment he saw the DTs.. But I remember a game between Kal and a T, where T went for bio right from the beginning, got a big advantage but still in the end got mauled by storms and DTs. The only scenario where bio works vs P is when T can deal the fatal blow to P right in the first time, and that goal can only be done when P has no knowledge of the strategy. (Turn vs Stats for example.)
Yea, except you are ignoring something. Factual evidence and game mechanics. This is ridiculous. Flash can't just make any build work, neither can any player, it has to be planned and calculated. It's a calculated decision to continue with the bio mech push. No terran progamer would chose to cancel his barracks unless he was hoping for the protoss to just drop out of the game because he knows that the protoss would either out expand him while he defends for a push that never comes since the protoss has vision of his side of the field via DT's, or the protoss would just outright kill him while there is an absence of units. You can't just use the defense that your opinion makes sense to you when there's already an established answer to the problem because Broodwar is a game with defined mechanics and numeric values. Flash's highest chance of winning was with the bio mech push before storm finishes, he couldn't pull it off.
No it's not, Flash has the lowest chance of winning when commiting to the bio push. It just couldn't works when the opponent already had the knowledge of his intention and had several DTs on guard, plus you don't know is his storms are ready or not. I'm not even talking about the possibility that he will run out of scans even before reaching Jangbi's nat. Anyway it's suicidal for Flash to do so. About the potential all-in, I already discussed it before, and I won't say it again since it looks like you're in a loop.
So you don't think progamers study furiously the timing windows for unit production / research? Storms take a definite amount of time to research and HT's take a definite amount of time to produce and save up enough energy to cast storm. It's even more suicidal to go for a mech switch. Show me one game where a terran does what you are suggesting.
It's all known too well that they practice a lot, but as many have also said, they are not perfect and quite frequently they make mistakes or false judgments or have bad timings. You said it yourself several pages ago, and now you're contradicting yourself. That aside, against DTs and storms AND limited scans, bio is surely a suicide.
It's still the only shot he has,trying to wait and turtle on 2 bases with mines is an even worse option because the protoss can just choose to macro and expand more instead of attacking when he sees that there are vultures instead of a bio attack. It's still the better choice. It's a bad decision on its own but Flash can't escape the position he was already so he needs to make do, same with trying to hold a 9 pool with a 12 hatch. You've already done the build, you can't transition out of it into a more optimal build.
He's definitely not too deep within it and can turn his way back. Why not choose the better tactics when the one you're doing is suicidal, and the other tactics is viable?
You just answered your own question. Flash knew exactly what he was up against and if he thought he could've transitioned to something better he would have. He still chose to go with his bio timing vs templar tech despite it being an uphill battle (maybe 5% or less win rate with their respective builds). Flash still chose biomech as the best tactic because your idiotic mech transition is completely non-viable in that situation. Just because you don't understand why it's not viable doesn't mean it is (multiple people have posted explaining the many ways in which toss destroys a mech transition in the context of that game). Like Caihead I challenge you to find ONE game in the history of bw where multiple production structures and tech are cancelled that late by a progamer to transition into something completely different. Now assuming you can't, your thinking either revolutionizes a 10 year old game or is fundamentally flawed. I'm going with the latter.
And what is it that you just said? Theorycrafting based on nothing at all? Like I said, as much as I can't find a game with such a situation, you have absolutely nothing to prove that the commitment Flash made is the best way possible and instead just ignorantly and mindlessly repeating about your "understanding of the matchup".
I used build analysis, I stated building times for units and buildings, I stated flash's lack of gas mining at the time because of the bio mech build and how it wouldn't be possible to produce a mech army not to mention his lack of mech upgrades, I stated why flash can't use units to scout nor can he use scans to scout and why his scout was denied, I stated research times for key researches like mines / speed / storm, I stated what Flash was able to see at what time and why he would choose to continue the build. I made note of the fact that flash lost scvs with an economical build so jangbi and flash are pretty even on economy especially since flash cut scvs for his build. And I stated what possible transitions the protoss could have gone with at the time based on what flash knows, and how the game would play out if a transition like you said would happen, namely protoss expand at will, crush flash while he has an absence of units, ability to scout and deny aggression or macro instead of aggression if he sees mines with the dt's, deny flash's third indefinitely due to army size. You can see all of that if you just go back a few pages or hell, look in this conversation in spoilers. And then you tell me it's all based on nothing. *throws hands up in the air* w/e not worth my time
If it's not worth your time why bother replying in the first place? I've seen way too many times in this thread alone when you contradict yourself. As I have said over 9000 times, as much as my suggested strategy is theorycrafting, you've got nothing more than that. All your analysis aims to one scenario where Flash would get demolished if he decided not to stick to bio. Mine is to get to the point that not going bio can result in a better situation for him. Yeah, I have read what you wrote many pages back, but you can also see my arguments back there too. I too have analyzed the situation and the build, the timings of units and buildings and pushes and attacks, the fact that T can still cancel the 2 unfinished raxes, that Jangbi opted for non-stop DTs right off the bat, that he was busing building up his expansion even before he used his DTs, that stim research still not done yet, that an all-in from P can be even less likely if Flash can stop P from getting intelligence, since with that build P would not get obs for a while. And most importantly I've said countless times that going bio versus DT-storms combo is the suicidal method for T, especially when P already knew it. And what you did was throwing all the above aside and like "Hell no, my way is the only way that's possible and acceptable."
The main problem is your theorycrafting seems to be based on a very superficial understanding of the matchup whereas Caihead's actually makes sense. It's not even resources that are the main issue (though 3 medics + the scv cut and losses + the rax cancels are substantial setbacks), it's timing. Such late factories just don't give flash options to punish the toss third or take one of his own. You might as well just forfeit. You can keep calling us ignorant and stating your opinion is just as valid as much as you like but it's just not. You can't find a single game as an example. You wouldn't be able to find a pro or high level amateur player that thinks your idea isn't retarded. Your thinking just isn't viable in an actual game of BW, especially one against the best current PvT on the planet or just about any P that knows what they're doing. Noone in this thread has thought your idea was a good one. What's your highest ICCUP rank, and with what race? Do you actually play this game? How are you this stubborn and ignorant... I thought you might be trolling but I guess you've somehow deluded yourself into thinking you know what you're talking about...
Again, you yourself can't find a game where the situation doesn't work so you are in no position to criticize me. I on the other hand think your concept of "just stick with it no matter how suicidal it is" is no less idiotic than how you think mine is. It also shows how ignorant you are.
The burden of proof is on you to show how your proposed strategy actually works. Flash was actually close to pulling the bio off, jangbi was gas stretched and only had the 1 templar out cause he needed enough dt's. Flash wasn't scanning directly on the dt's to kill them but just catching them on the edge to try and get a two for one which would've swung the game. 1 misstep from jangbi and he becomes vulnerable, storm comes 15 seconds later and he's in trouble. Then maybe flash can transition if he kills enough probes at the nat or the nexus. Jangbi played it pretty much perfectly but if he didnt Flash would've at least had a shot. The reason we can't show you a game where the transition doesn't work is because no pro has done something as bad as what you're suggesting in a live game. Considering the amount of practice games played by pro's and b-teamers I'm pretty sure they would've figured out the viability of cancelling production and tech that late. You're basically saying Flash was idiotic in his play and that both Flash and Jangbi didn't understand how that situation plays out in a cancel tech scenario. I noticed you dodged my question and I'm getting the impression you're an armchair theorycrafter. Again, do you actually play this game?
Do you realize that you just prove the reason I said you're ignorant? Look back at what you just wrote and tell me what part of it isn't theorycrafting? And you're telling me how bad my "theorycrafting" is. Yeah, that makes sense. And yes, I actually do play this game, from 2002, but not anymore since last year.
Hi, its pretty much decided when they start a BO in a high level game. Trust Jangbi's interview. Cancelling buildings or not spending minerals only put them more behind. Flash can only go full attack at that point and hope Jangbi commit amateur mistakes of missing 4 storms/losing all HTs for nothing etc..
At the point of time when Flash lost like 5 SCVs he already have 80% chance losing the game regardless. Thats how the margin for pros are. Jangbi can still play standard and pump goons and win or pick a tech. Flash cut SCVs to all in immediately when he lost 5 SCVs.Last edit: 2012-05-27 00:23:15 |
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| Baddieko Singapore. May 27 2012 00:27. Posts 842 | Profile # |
On May 25 2012 12:26 BreakerD wrote:
Flash should've canceled his 2 barricks, gone for factories, and hard turtle. He's won game where everyone thought he lost by just turtling.
Turtling wouldn't have worked too. The moment 5 SCVs lost for nothing he'd lost. |
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