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| Toadesstern Germany. May 31 2012 07:07. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
Day post incomming, just a sec  |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 31 2012 07:17. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
Day 1
It was a fine morning for the village of Liquidia. No clouds in the sky, a warm day and the fisher came back with boats full fish.
It was always that way in Liquidia when the summer started. The Mayor of the city Toadesster and his assistant zelblade went with the biggest ship the little village had on the first day of summer, although they both hated the stench of dead fish and those fisherboats. They had to go, that's what the villagers want to see: their mayor being involved in the daily life and afterwards the village is going to have a huge feast to celebrate this fine day.
That's how it's done in Liquidia, it has been tradition.
A couple of hours later the ship was comming back to the harbor and people were screaming in joy, until they realised that something was wrong. The ship did not stop and crashed right into the old harbor destroying everything in it's way until it came to a rest.
People were still screaming although no longer of joy. Quickly a few men tried to get on the ship, trying to figure out what was going on. From the looks of it the ship seemed deserted.
A couple of minutes later the men came back carrieng the bodies of some poor sailors, the mayor Toadesstern and his assistant zelblade.
The men put the bodies of
Toadesstern the Mayor of Liquidia
zelblade the Assistant of the Mayor
Radfield the Captain
on the floor next to the shore.
Only now people realized that on the side of the ship there was a message writting in capital, red letters:
YOU WILL ALL PAY
Day 1 has started. You have a little less than 48 hours left to vote. Deadline is 07:00KST[local] in roughly 48 hours. |
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| sciberbia United States. May 31 2012 07:20. Posts 781 | Profile # |
Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.
about me+ Show Spoiler +
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
what you can expect from me+ Show Spoiler +
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
what i ask of you guys+ Show Spoiler +
1) make reading the thread a priority
2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion
3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
to lynch or not to lynch?+ Show Spoiler +
Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's
Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's
Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's
Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
what I think we should focus on right now+ Show Spoiler +
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL?
2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 31 2012 07:30. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
Oh I forgot to add the wincons to the role-PMs LOL.
Town-Wincon: You win when all threats to town are eliminated
Mafia-Wincon: You win when you outnumber town or have an equal amount of mafias alive as there are townies alive.
Feel free to "add" that to your Role-PMs. Sorry about the mistake
I will add it to the op and hope I don't need to send 12 new pms
Edit: Also keep in mind I added those two rules to the OP (way before forgetting the wincons, so it has nothing to do with that):
11. Comparing / posting the phrasing of host-PMs including the Role-PM to figure out alignments
12. No talk about wincons!
So if there are mistakes about your role-PM like typos please don't post them to confirm yourself or something like that!
I hope they're right but you never know, that's whyLast edit: 2012-05-31 07:34:31 |
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| O.Golden_ne Australia. May 31 2012 07:31. Posts 204 | Profile # |
I disagree sciberbia, i've learnt from the past that it's stupid too not lynch day one. You should realise that yourself with the last games fiasco with Mufaa being AFK all. I'm strongly against not lynching, either we knock a lurker or we knock someone who appears scummy and see how they flip. Mafia is a game of information, and with no information on day 2 we loss. Standard stuff. I understand you don't want to hit blue again D1 like last game, but its the responsibility of the blue role to defend himself from a mislynch rather than town being to scared to lynch for hitting blue.
About Me: This is my 3rd game, so last game before the big leagues. I'm ready to be super active and lynch some mafia scum!
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| | Like a baneling in a mineral line |
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| s0Lstice United States. May 31 2012 07:38. Posts 892 | Profile # |
Hello there sciberbia. Let's hope we both learned a lot from last game. You start tying the nooses and I'll rig up the gallows. Let's kill some scummers, and avenge Toad and Zelblade...Radfield too I guess though I have no idea who he is.
Apropos to learning from last game, I can't help but feel that we should strongly consider lynching lurkers if any do appear. Of course it's a question of degrees...I just don't want to see another Mufaa/skware.
As far as whether or not to lynch, do you think you are putting the wagon before the horse here? What are your thoughts on putting this decision off until we see what cases develop, and how strong they are?
Also, just food for thought, you list two out of the four scenarios as being no-lynch optimal; this of course leaves the other two as undecided/potentially good day 1 lynch setups. These being close to equal, wouldn't you rather lynch in the event we get lucky and hit scum? |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| s0Lstice United States. May 31 2012 07:39. Posts 892 | Profile # |
| EBWOP: the implication was I'm for a lynch, but I didn't say it, so I will now. I am FOR a lynch. |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| Ange777 Germany. May 31 2012 07:45. Posts 655 | Profile Blog # |
| I can't think of any good reason for a no lynch. We might get scum today and without day 1 lynch the night 1 kill will be even more diffficult to analyse. |
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| Vivax Italy. May 31 2012 07:48. Posts 3782 | Profile Blog # |
Giovanni Falcone reporting in.
Pro lynch, any information better than no information.
Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods.
Let's see who's active, i also remember a guy announcing exams, anyone silent will hang from the towns' tree. |
| | Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81 |
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| s0Lstice United States. May 31 2012 07:51. Posts 892 | Profile # |
| sciberbia, I think judging from the reactions you might want to post your full reasoning. |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| Vivax Italy. May 31 2012 07:58. Posts 3782 | Profile Blog # |
On May 31 2012 07:51 s0Lstice wrote:
sciberbia, I think judging from the reactions you might want to post your full reasoning.
Sounds like he thought that a medic setup could save a townie from being lynched, but what for?
As far as i know the alignment isn't revealed unless the target dies, in this case it won't. |
| | Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81 |
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| Miltonkram United States. May 31 2012 07:59. Posts 310 | Profile # |
Hey all, just checking in before I go to work. There are a few issues that I've seen derail newbie games in the several threads that I've read through. I'll do my best to cover those now.
1. Lynch vs. No-Lynch: Always go for the lynch. Lynching is the only game mechanic, especially in a game w/out vigis, that allows town to get rid of scum. Mislynches happen, and they are unfortunate, but the town gains more information from a mislynch than a no-lynch (eg. who bandwagoned when, how players on the chopping block respond pressure, etc.) In short, lynches have to happen. Anyone advocating a no-lynch will immediately have my suspicions.
2. Roleclaims: These are tricky because they all come down to timing. They can be the sign of a desperate scum player, or a blue role actively trying to help. If you are a blue role here are a few things to think about. When will claiming most actively help town? Do the mafia have a read on you? If so, what is the best way to present the information you have that vanilla townies do not? Whatever you do, don't roleclaim with your first post Day 1. I think I read a game where someone did that, needless to say townies lost.
3. Be active: The best possible way for you to help the town is by actively posting in the thread. If we have even one player lurking, any information gained from a lynch of that player is lessened greatly. Mafia have a reason to lurk, they want to blend in. Townies that lurk give mafia that place to blend in. In that sense, the townies are actively hurting the goal (to lynch scum) of the town.
Hopefully this is all the discussion we need on questions of policy. If the town spends too much time discussing policy they spend less time actively scumhunting.
---snip
to lynch or not to lynch?- Hide Spoiler -
Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's
Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's
Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's
Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town? |
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| sciberbia United States. May 31 2012 08:04. Posts 781 | Profile # |
@s0sltice
Gladly. Good to see you and golden again and posting already. I expected you all to be skeptical because it is usually better to lynch. Let me explain my reasoning for setup B (all vanilla) and hopefully you will see how the logic easily extends to setup D (with a cop).
It is generally accepted that with 3 VT's and 1 goon remaining, the best option is to NL. This increases the town win percentage from 25% to 33%. It's a similar principle that encourages NL'ing in any vanilla setup with an even number of players. I am pretty sure about my reasoning on this setup.
if we delay the NL + Show Spoiler +
D1: 12 remaining lynch #1
D2: 10 remaining lynch #2
D3: 8 remaining lynch #3
D4: 6 remaining lynch #4
D5: 4 remaining NL
D6: 3 remaining lynch #5
if we NL D1 + Show Spoiler +
D1: 12 remaining NL
D2: 11 remaining lynch #1
D3: 9 remaining lynch #2
D4: 7 remaining lynch #3
D5: 5 remaining lynch #4
D6: 3 remaining lynch #5
Either way, we have exactly 5 lynches to nail exactly 3 mafia. But in the ladder case, we have a marginally higher probability of success on each lynch. This is for two reasons:
1) the mafia were kind enough to kill off a townie, so now it's 3/11 instead of 3/12 etc
2) we actually have MORE information on each lynch. we get to see an extra kill. If we have a cop, he got to make an extra check.
Try not to look at it as where we are tomorrow vs where we are today. Consider that we always have 5 lynches for 6 days, but we get to choose which day to NL on.
This is the basis of my argument. Assuming setup B (all vanilla), I think it can never hurt to NL on day 1. Do you see a flaw in my logic? I think that it might be even more beneficial in setup D to get our cop more checks. The setups with a medic are less clear because we could be blessed with a medic save. I'm not 100% sure we should NL but I think there is certainly a case to be made, so I'm making it. I hope you guys can confirm/refute my logic. |
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| sciberbia United States. May 31 2012 08:14. Posts 781 | Profile # |
On May 31 2012 07:48 Cattivik wrote:
Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods.
oops really sorry about that Toadesstern. For some reason I was thinking blue was question font instead of green. |
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| Release United States. May 31 2012 08:17. Posts 3973 | Profile Blog # | |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 31 2012 08:22. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
Another thing I forgot:
Keep in mind we have 2 coaches for Town: Mementoss & marvellosity
If you have any questions considering this game feel free to bombard them with questions via PM.
I gave them a brief instruction on what to talk about and on how to talk because I have no idea if they have coaches before but they'll be at your service and i HIGHLY recommend talking about the game with them.Last edit: 2012-05-31 08:22:26 |
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| Vivax Italy. May 31 2012 08:39. Posts 3782 | Profile Blog # |
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote:
With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch.
Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game.
That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here.
O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell.
As for solstice, i'm not sure. His first post reflect a certain indecision whispering: 'Do whatever you want, I'm in for it.'
Then he points the finger at the most active player. I won't say you're scummy, but you aren't clean yet in my book as opposed to the others.Why do you question our most active townie.
Ange777's post makes him look like he's bandwagoning if you look at the majority of the pro-lynch responses before.A pretty thin post.
Still, all of those don't stink scummy until we get information from people who didn't post already. |
| | Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81 |
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| Miltonkram United States. May 31 2012 08:40. Posts 310 | Profile # |
@ sciberbia
The issue I have with your logic is that we don't know the setup and that mafia is not a game of pure probability. If and when the situation arises when a no lynch is beneficial, the case can and should be made. It is likely that such a situation will never occur however. Your logic depends on us mislynching every single night. Every time we make a correct lynch, it throws off the numbers and gives the town more time to work with.
In short, no-lynch D1 is really bad, it gives us no information to work on. Discussion on when a no-lynch might help can be held off until such a situation presents itself.
Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart.
##Vote: sciberbia
As far as the rest of the town is concerned, get these discussions on policy out of the way quickly. The sooner we start scumhunting the better. I'm leaving for work, but I'll check the thread when I get back later. Give me some activity to come back to town. |
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| Toadesstern Germany. May 31 2012 09:03. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
If you are interested in an OBS-QT please PM me about it!
Obviously only for players not playing the game for those of you in this game not having a idea what I'm talking about lol |
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| heist United States. May 31 2012 09:34. Posts 719 | Profile # |
Sciberbia, you wanted our opinion on the matter of a NL Day 1.... I strongly,strongly disagree with a NL.
The issue isn't with the unknown setup. It doesn't matter. No matter what the setup is, we should always go through with a Day 1 lynch. The flaw with your logic is that the lynches are not pure probability. We are not condemning some poor soul to death from a name in a hat. It is based on people's reactions to pressure, contradictions, activity level, and other information generated by discussion. When someone dies, most of us should be feeling comfortable with it. If anything, the purpose of a Day 1 lynch is not some slim chance of lynching mafia, but for information. Information we can use to lead the course of Day 2 and onward.
In your scenario, every lynch is an isolated incident. The lynches of each day are not independent. The outcome of a Day 1 lynch WILL affect the outcome of the Day 2 lynch, and only for the better because of all us will have a clearer picture of the situation.
---
In other news: I wanted to suggest a few things to town that you may or may not find useful:
1. DO NOT claim you are a vanilla townie. We won't believe you AND you should be glad to die in place of a blue. We don't want to limit the pool of possible blues.
2. Attention DT (if we have one) - Let's say you get a lucky check on scum. Do not reveal yourself day 2. Do not come screaming into the thread with your pants still at your feet. You are not guaranteed a medic. Breadcrumb your result. Look at their behavior and create an accusation. Anything is better than a reveal.
3. This is a newbie game. Most people don't know what to do as a blue role. Pretend you don't have it. Seriously, most people with a blue role are afraid to stick their head out and, as a result, are often mistaken for scum. We don't want to hang you so please don't give us a reason. Be active.
4. Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
---
@Cattivik
"Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch.
Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game."
That defense is borderline scummy. There is nothing that mafia won't do. Do not assume he's clean because he's the first post in a newbie game. Obviously this is only your first impression, but your reasoning is a little off here.
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