| Blazinghand United States. June 09 2012 16:55. Posts 12198 | Profile Blog # |
On June 09 2012 16:54 Hyaach wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 16:50 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 09 2012 16:49 Hyaach wrote:
A town role block and JK existing together is possible given the set up. It contains no medic.
The idea of town having an RB and a JK *and* mafia having an RB is possible but is super super super more unlikely than: you're a fakeclaiming scum.
And you would know how WGB gave out his roles?
Well you seem to quite well, mr "There must be an RB in addition to a JK" |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 09 2012 16:58. Posts 12198 | Profile Blog # |
You know what, I think Hyaach's fakeclaim speaks for itself. It's more helpful to my case than anything I could have said.
I'm gonna head to bed. I'll be back before the lynch.
Do the right thing. |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Hyaach Singapore. June 09 2012 16:59. Posts 1725 | Profile Blog # |
during the talk hour at night, its 5am for me and you do not get notification from night action yet.
How was i suppose to comment on your 'supposed' vig shot.
I wasn't gonna claim. I tried to get people to realize the JK scenario does not exist and figure out why I'm so sure of it.
With 14 hours or so till deadline, and me sleeping for 8 hours. I only have 6 hours to convince people.
People are missing the crumbs i laid. The JK scenario does not exist.
So for you to be VIG. There has to be a town RB mafia RB and town JK.
or Mafia RB, town JK, SK.
That is what is making your claim sketchy.
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| Blazinghand United States. June 09 2012 17:00. Posts 12198 | Profile Blog # | |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Hyaach Singapore. June 09 2012 17:02. Posts 1725 | Profile Blog # |
On June 09 2012 16:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 16:54 Hyaach wrote:
On June 09 2012 16:50 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 09 2012 16:49 Hyaach wrote:
A town role block and JK existing together is possible given the set up. It contains no medic.
The idea of town having an RB and a JK *and* mafia having an RB is possible but is super super super more unlikely than: you're a fakeclaiming scum.
And you would know how WGB gave out his roles?
Well you seem to quite well, mr "There must be an RB in addition to a JK"
lol and we would know VIG is present in this set up? Like I said there is no way to prove you are VIG after last night
But I can proved I am JK come night. I can JK anyone town ask and that person would get a RB notification regardless if they have a night action or not. (I asked WBG). |
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| Hyaach Singapore. June 09 2012 17:04. Posts 1725 | Profile Blog # |
On June 09 2012 16:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 16:54 Hyaach wrote:
On June 09 2012 16:50 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 09 2012 16:49 Hyaach wrote:
A town role block and JK existing together is possible given the set up. It contains no medic.
The idea of town having an RB and a JK *and* mafia having an RB is possible but is super super super more unlikely than: you're a fakeclaiming scum.
And you would know how WGB gave out his roles?
Well you seem to quite well, mr "There must be an RB in addition to a JK"
Stop twisting my words. I said its possible.
What make us so sure a VIG is even present? |
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| Hyaach Singapore. June 09 2012 17:05. Posts 1725 | Profile Blog # |
I think its come down to me or BH.
If you lynch me and I flipped.
Just remember, he has no way to proved himself after last night.
Lynch him or WIFOM with him all you like
##UNVOTE
##VOTE : BlazingHand |
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| Navillus United States. June 09 2012 17:59. Posts 1120 | Profile # |
Oh shoot I posted something like 12 hours ago (I've been busy from then to now and may well sleep from now through the deadline) but it didn't go through and I was in a rush so I didn't see, either way it's not very important now, now what matters are the claims between BH and hyaach and frankly I have no idea what the possible scenarios are at this point, between the 3 RB possibilities, SK, and worst of all the fact that at least one of you is likely lying about everything (making what little information we do have almost totally unreliable) Because of that and the fact that I am not really able to analyze right now (those 12 hours were me at prom and it's 5am where i am right now, sorry but my brain is fried) I really don't think I'll be able to figure anything out by speculation on all of the possible role scenarios this could be, there are just too many permutations. So I'm going to base this on my reads and how they acted with their claims.
My reads so far have definitely favored BH as a townie, honestly I don't really know his meta so those arguments haven't made a big impact on me (I'm not ignoring it but if this is some massive break then I wouldn't notice) and absent meta he has been playing what looks like a very townie game to me. His claim helps here especially over hyaach's claim as he took a shot that was good for town, he explained himself clearly and came right out with it with reasons to come out (it clearly couldn't hurt as he was 1 shot). Hyaach on the other hand has been suspicious, cryptic and lurky and his claim comes at a weird time and doesn't really clear anything up, so - ##Vote Hyaach |
| | "TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa |
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| Hyaach Singapore. June 09 2012 19:02. Posts 1725 | Profile Blog # |
How is it a wierd time? Do you want me to claim it the moment BH claimed RB? was that a better time? I'm the acting medic for this set up.
I tried to explain it thru analysis. But you guys are cannot figure it out so i had to come out.
Futhermore i can prove myself. Can BH prove himself tonight? no he cannot |
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| zelblade Singapore. June 09 2012 19:25. Posts 872 | Profile # |
Well this is easy if theres a town rb claim. Don't think your role is worth us lynching wrongly today.
Also hyaach who did you try to jail last night and why (yes I know you got rb'd but who did you try to jail)
My vote is still on furekip because I haven't decided who is lookin worse. Dont worry going to switch for sure. I am currently not at home and posting on my phone is a pain so I'll post more when I get onto a computer |
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| Shraft Sweden. June 09 2012 19:35. Posts 582 | Profile # |
@Zelblade
Hyaach said that he tried to jail VE. I agree that if we have a town RB, he should claim. I don't think the chance of blocking another Mafia NK is high, and I think the advantage of having two almost confirmed townies (RB + BH/Hyaach) is bigger than that of having a "non-claimed" RB. |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. June 09 2012 20:20. Posts 3455 | Profile Blog # |
Okay, it seems that for Hyaach to be town there needs to be both a Town roleblocker and a Jailkeeper. For Blazinghand's claim, there just needs to be a vig and a mafia roleblocker. Going to go occam's razor on this.
##Unvote
##Vote: Hyaach |
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| Hyaach Singapore. June 09 2012 20:25. Posts 1725 | Profile Blog # |
| for BH you need a vig, a mafia roleblock and mafia to hold their shot if we go by your way. |
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| Shraft Sweden. June 09 2012 21:39. Posts 582 | Profile # |
On June 09 2012 20:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Okay, it seems that for Hyaach to be town there needs to be both a Town roleblocker and a Jailkeeper. For Blazinghand's claim, there just needs to be a vig and a mafia roleblocker. Going to go occam's razor on this.
##Unvote
##Vote: Hyaach
It is not that easy. If you assume that there is only a vig and a Mafia RB, you would still have to explain why Hyaach would lie about getting getting about 5-6 hours after BH had already claimed his roleblock. It makes no sense to lie about that as scum. |
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| Shraft Sweden. June 09 2012 21:41. Posts 582 | Profile # |
| EBWOP: "lie about getting getting" should be "lie about getting roleblocked". |
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| Hyaach Singapore. June 09 2012 22:14. Posts 1725 | Profile Blog # | |
| | Thailand is my new obsession |
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| VisceraEyes United States. June 09 2012 23:06. Posts 9682 | Profile Blog # |
| This is nuts. I'm reading. |
| | Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET**** |
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| Shraft Sweden. June 09 2012 23:34. Posts 582 | Profile # |
I'm having a hard time cleaning up the mess of claims and different scenarios in my head, so I decided to do this scenario breakdown.
Red name means Scum and green name means Town.
+ Show Spoiler [Assuming that no one lied about being…] +Scenario 1: BH | Hyaach
Comments: Is it likely that we have a vigilante, Town RB, and Scum RB? Why would Hyaach claim JK?
Scenario 2: BH | Hyaach
Comments: For this to work we need to have Scum RB, Town RB and a JK (if Hyaach isn't fake-claiming JK while still being town). Is claiming vigilante worth it for BH?
Scenario 3: BH | Hyaach
Comments: Highly unlikely. If no one of them are fake-claiming there needs to be a lot of power roles in this game, and why would they be fake-claiming if they are town?
Scenario 4: BH | Hyaach
Comments : Very unlikely. If this is true they are pulling some huge stunt in order to trick the Town.
+ Show Spoiler [Assuming that the one being Scum is ly…] +Scenario 5: BH | Hyaach
Comments: Why would Hyaach lie about getting roleblocked 5-6 hours after BH claimed his roleblock? It does not make sense. This scenario is not likely.
Scenario 6: BH | Hyaach
Comments: Why would BH fake claim vig? I don't think the gains outweighs the risks. People were not super suspicious of him at his time of claiming, and claiming only leads to drawing more attention, something that you want to avoid as Scum. However, it could lead to getting a bit more Town credibility (not enough to justify fake-claiming, in my opinion).
I have omitted scenarios where the Townie lies about getting roleblocked, as I don't think that fake-claiming a roleblock makes any sense whatsoever as Town.
Out of these scenarios I think that scenario one, two and six are much more likely than the others, so in the end it boils down to whose claim I think is more trustworthy. I think that the best way to handle this situation is to have our Town RB (if we have one) claim. Also, if the Town RB does not claim, he's either stupid or he does not exist. If we assume that he is not stupid (meaning that he does not exist) we can rule out scenario one and two, leaving only scenario six remaining. Am I oversimplifying things or does anyone else think that this makes sense?
TL;DR: Best way of solving this is to have our Town RB claim.
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| ghost_403 United States. June 09 2012 23:40. Posts 1753 | Profile # |
I like how BH's entire problem with me was a single 'lie'. Suddenly, his problems with hyaach became secondary to me because I was actively misleading the town. Then, he realizes that he misread something, and completely backs off of the whole 'ghost is scum' thing. To me, this is a classic scum overreaction, both before and after my correction.
I don't now what to make of hyaachs claim. This is exactly when he should claim, provided he really is the JK. I don't see why he would lie about the role block regardless of his alignment. This means we're still stuck trying to explain why there was no NK last night. |
| | They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through. |
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| ghost_403 United States. June 09 2012 23:46. Posts 1753 | Profile # |
| @shaft that looks like a good post, I'll respond to that in a bit. Busy atm. |
| | They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through. |
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