| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. June 10 2012 06:26. Posts 3458 | Profile Blog # |
| Can someone please say something really smart so I don't have to doubt anymore? I've got a scumread on someone that makes me feel BH should be mafia (don't ask me to expand on it, I'm planning on posting it on the last night hour) and it just feels that with Hyaach's English skills (no offense) he wouldn't fabricate so many tales and go through loops, as well as fakeclaim JK and get RBed. Yet for him to be town there needs to be a JK and a town RBer. BH's behavior has also been decent so far. Seriously torn. |
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| Snarfs Canada. June 10 2012 06:30. Posts 764 | Profile # |
In order to believe that bh would fake-claim vig night 1 as either mafia or SK, we have to believe that he:
either) If mafia, thinks he can argue his way out of there being only a single night kill
or) If SK, thinks he can go the rest of the game without shooting someone else or being a likely target by mafia because otherwise he'd be under a ton of suspicion
I really don't see either of these being legit, mainly because I know that I myself would have been all over his ass if either of them occured.
In order to believe that Hyaach would fake-claim JK as either mafia or SK, we have to believe that he:
As either mafia or SK is worried that he's about to be lynched and wants to buy himself at least one more day to argue out of the situation.
I'm going to take a gamble here on the fact that our town is good enough to lynch the shit out of blazinghand for dumb vigilante claims should they end up not matching up with our expectations of the game. I believe blazinghand thinks this too and wouldn't try to pull off something this risky. |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. June 10 2012 06:37. Posts 3458 | Profile Blog # |
1) He's on the verge of arguing himself out of a no night kill situation, and he can fall back on not getting his shot refunded if he gets roleblocked once. He could always claim being RBed and at worst he'd trade himself for a RBer, at best he'd get town cred.
2) I don't think there's an SK in this game, especially given there were no night kills.
He didn't have that much pressure on him when he claimed he was RBed at all, in fact it looked like furer was going to take up the heat. I can see how he would feel pressured by thinking a Roleblocker might claim to have blocked him, but then why claim JK? It doesn't make sense from a game setup perspective as it's a very unlikely role to be present given the other roles that'd have to be present too.
Blazinghand isn't particularly afraid of making risky plays. The question is not if Town would lynch him for it, but if Blazinghand thinks he could get away with it if he was scum. Given he could make this play as both town and scum, I don't think you're giving him enough credit here. |
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| Snarfs Canada. June 10 2012 06:37. Posts 764 | Profile # |
On June 10 2012 06:26 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I've got a scumread on someone that makes me feel BH should be mafia (don't ask me to expand on it, I'm planning on posting it on the last night hour)
Playing by connections before anyone has flipped scum has only ever ended poorly in my TL mafia experience. It's all WIFOM and until we see some red on the board, I'd highly recommend against it. |
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| wherebugsgo United States. June 10 2012 06:38. Posts 7940 | Profile Blog # |
| I'll be afk for deadline so my cohosts will handle the daypost. |
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| Snarfs Canada. June 10 2012 06:40. Posts 764 | Profile # |
On June 10 2012 06:37 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
1) He's on the verge of arguing himself out of a no night kill situation, and he can fall back on not getting his shot refunded if he gets roleblocked once. He could always claim being RBed and at worst he'd trade himself for a RBer, at best he'd get town cred.
2) I don't think there's an SK in this game, especially given there were no night kills.
He didn't have that much pressure on him when he claimed he was RBed at all, in fact it looked like furer was going to take up the heat. I can see how he would feel pressured by thinking a Roleblocker might claim to have blocked him, but then why claim JK? It doesn't make sense from a game setup perspective as it's a very unlikely role to be present given the other roles that'd have to be present too.
Blazinghand isn't particularly afraid of making risky plays. The question is not if Town would lynch him for it, but if Blazinghand thinks he could get away with it if he was scum. Given he could make this play as both town and scum, I don't think you're giving him enough credit here.
Maybe I just don't remember playing in a game where scum made such a bold move on night 1.
I've had a scum read on Hyaach since day 1, but do you think they could both be town? |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. June 10 2012 06:41. Posts 3458 | Profile Blog # |
| I'm aware of that Snarfs, that's why I'm not pushing for it unless I see BH flip red or hyaach flip green (which I feel pretty much guarantees BH is red given the amount of power roles neccesary to make both innocent) |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 10 2012 06:41. Posts 12265 | Profile Blog # |
On June 10 2012 06:37 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Blazinghand isn't particularly afraid of making risky plays. The question is not if Town would lynch him for it, but if Blazinghand thinks he could get away with it if he was scum. Given he could make this play as both town and scum, I don't think you're giving him enough credit here.
I hate to agree with Artanis pointing out how I could do this as scum but I'm a sucker for a compliment:
+ Show Spoiler +
Seriously, though, there's no reasonable town explanation for Hyaach's actions, and the simplest answer is that I'm town and he's scum. |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Shraft Sweden. June 10 2012 06:44. Posts 582 | Profile # |
| I'm going to go with my gut feeling and keep my vote on Hyaach. We currently need one more switching from BH to Hyaach in order to secure the lynch though... |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. June 10 2012 06:49. Posts 3458 | Profile Blog # |
| We need at least one more person in here that hasn't voted yet or have someone switch from BH to hyaach. If no one's here I'm willing to switch to BH to make at least one of these two die today. |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 10 2012 06:50. Posts 12265 | Profile Blog # |
On June 10 2012 06:49 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
We need at least one more person in here that hasn't voted yet or have someone switch from BH to hyaach. If no one's here I'm willing to switch to BH to make at least one of these two die today.
All the scum on my wagon are conveniently AFK at lynch time, so they won't switch over. |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 10 2012 06:50. Posts 12265 | Profile Blog # |
| Is this really how it ends? |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. June 10 2012 06:50. Posts 3458 | Profile Blog # |
| Will we still need 7 to lynch if the people who haven't voted get modkilled? |
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| Snarfs Canada. June 10 2012 06:51. Posts 764 | Profile # |
| There are 6 on Hyaach and 5 on blazing. |
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| Artanis[Xp] Netherlands. June 10 2012 06:52. Posts 3458 | Profile Blog # |
Oh wait there's only one that gets modkilled currently, which is furer. Question still stands though.
@Snarfs mod said we need 7. |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 10 2012 06:53. Posts 12265 | Profile Blog # |
VE, Ghost, Hyaach, Zelblade, Katina -- 5 trying to lynch me
Snarfs, Shraft, MrZ, Navi, ARtanis, Blazinghand -- 6 trying to lynch Hyaach
This current vote count is correct as far as I can tell |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| HiroPro United States. June 10 2012 06:53. Posts 2151 | Profile # |
| I don't know what WBG intended to do. But if furerkip doesn't vote, I'll modkill him and make it 6 votes needed to lynch. |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 10 2012 06:54. Posts 12265 | Profile Blog # |
| With 12 players alive, it should take 7 to lynch, but if FK is modkilled we might only need 6, in which case all is well. |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 10 2012 06:54. Posts 12265 | Profile Blog # |
| yeah ok no need to vote me just to get a lynch guys, we can just lynch Hyaach, no fear of a no-lynch. |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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| Blazinghand United States. June 10 2012 06:55. Posts 12265 | Profile Blog # |
| What would be super hilarious would be if at X:59 Furerkip showed up and tied the vote, causing a no-lynch and avoiding modkill. |
| | When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back. |
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