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| Vodh June 04 2012 19:06. Posts 65 | Profile # |
We still have no idea when the RMAH is going live, but it will go live eventually and it won't hurt to have some theorycrafting going.
I would believe that when it comes to the price of gold, whatever amount you can farm somewhat relaibly in an hour would eventually settle down at around $3-4, which is just under half of the minimum wage rate. My reasoning is that after you take away the blizz/paypal cut and take all the foreign farmers into account it will still have to be profitable - and let's be real, the people who will set the prices of gold are the dedicated farmers. This still means that it could potentially be a nice little injection of income every now and then as at least with WoW the chinese farmers were pretty good, but nowhere near the endgame-optimal-earning good.
Ultimately there will always be demand for gold, and from there it's much more a supply-side determination of prices than the demand-side - in order to sell the sellers will slightly undercut their competition down to the level where they believe it's still worth it. There will be some limited demand even at the prices in range of $20/mil, and as the price goes down and gold becomes affordable to mostly everyone interested it will just be the case of how cheap would people be willing to go and keep selling it.
I also believe that with the way it will work the price of gold will settle down relatively quickly. Sure, there will be some exchange rate fluctuations over time (probably with the price of gold going down as farmers get better gear/become more efficient, some infrequent mild spikes up as Blizzard nerfs this or that farming spot), but it really won't take people too much time to realize that it really doesn't matter if they sell their stuff for gold or for money since they can cash the gold out anyways. The first few days will belong to the relatively small group of wealthy buyers, but it could quite possibly be outweighed by all the people who are already stocking gold in hopes of reaping some day-1 inefficient market returns.
And on a final note, I believe that with the way it's set up, only the highly priced items will ever sell on the RMAH. The exact price will of course be derivative of gold/$ exchange rate. This will be a result of two main factors - the first one is that the gold AH is quite simply a much bigger market, so it's easier to sell - everyone who will use the RMAH will be able to buy gold up there and join the gold AH, and there will definitely still be people who will not buy stuff on the RMAH so they will only be using the gold AH. With the option to take the gold and cash out on the RMAH it will be more convenient and the sale will be more reliable. And as to the expensive items, this is where the difference in auction fees will apply. In the gold AH there's 15%, then there's 15% for commodities in the RMAH. I will not count the 15% paypal cashout because it's the same in both cases. Two times 15% equals 27.75% (the reason being the latter 15% is taken from the already diminished amount so it's not additive, it's multiplicative). If you sell the item on RMAH directly, Blizzard will take a cut of $1 - which means that selling anything under $3.60 on the RMAH will just simply be inefficient. Now there's the price for convenience and liquidity of the gold AH, which will tempt people selling stuff under let's say $5 to still stay on the gold AH and then cash out in gold if they prefer - and from here on it's just the question of the price of gold - if it settles at $3/mil then even some of the 2mil gold items will make it directly to the RMAH, but the demand for those items in RMAH will have to be seen to say if that will actually be profitable.
So that's about it, if you have any comments, questions, know what's the current top reliable gold income per hour or want to call bullshit on my theories then by all means, join in  |
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| Tachyon Denmark. June 04 2012 19:13. Posts 143 | Profile # |
I'm wondering how much money people will actually be willing to spend on a single item tbh...I can't see any reasonable person spending 250$, already more than four times the game price, on an item which is most likely not even a perfect. I think people will buy/sell at 50$ max, despite what others have predicted, but maybe my faith in humanity is too great at this point..
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| | I shall be telling this with a sigh somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. |
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| Vodh June 04 2012 19:23. Posts 65 | Profile # |
On June 04 2012 19:13 Tachyon wrote:
I'm wondering how much money people will actually be willing to spend on a single item tbh...I can't see any reasonable person spending 250$, already more than four times the game price, on an item which is most likely not even a perfect. I think people will buy/sell at 50$ max, despite what others have predicted, but maybe my faith in humanity is too great at this point..
While I do think it's unlikely that anyone would spend something like 10% of their monthly income on a game item, you can't discount all the disgustingly wealthy people who also play D3 - even if there's just a few of them I think it's definitely possible that someone would be willing to pay that kind of money for an item with near perfect stats that will fit in what they were looking for almost perfectly. Some people are willing to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for a watch, and since we've already establised years ago that people are willing to pay real money for virtual items, then why would those people think twice about throwing some change away for a cool item?
That will still just be some very small margin of the RMAH tho. But it will be there. |
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 Silidons United States. June 04 2012 19:33. Posts 2785 | Profile Blog # |
| people paid ~$10-$20 regularly for nice rares in d2, sometimes even $100+ for gg ones... |
| | "God fights on the side with the best artillery." - Napoleon Bonaparte |
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| Harris1st Germany. June 04 2012 19:38. Posts 327 | Profile # |
On June 04 2012 19:33 Silidons wrote:
people paid ~$10-$20 regularly for nice rares in d2, sometimes even $100+ for gg ones...
Why would people do that? You could just cheat yourself some perfect items in D2 and nobody cared
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| Geiko France. June 04 2012 19:46. Posts 1603 | Profile Blog # |
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions |
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| Iranon United States. June 04 2012 20:11. Posts 964 | Profile Blog # |
On June 04 2012 19:33 Silidons wrote:
people paid ~$10-$20 regularly for nice rares in d2, sometimes even $100+ for gg ones...
This is a little misleading. Random blues and most rares were worthless. Mid-level uniques and sets were worth at most a dollar. High level uniques and runewords (i.e. for all but a few players, "optimal" items) were worth around five. And then there were all those duped rare boots and amulets or crazy good circlets that sold for significantly more. Those were outliers though, you could fully gear any character with incredibly good gear for like twenty bucks. Yeah, those prices were cheap because of bots and dupes, but you're crazy if you think D3 isn't going to have both of those issues before long, and there's such a huge player base that it doesn't matter how low the drop rates are. |
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| Reasonable Ukraine. June 04 2012 20:12. Posts 1331 | Profile # |
On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous. |
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| Gulf Scotland. June 04 2012 20:55. Posts 188 | Profile # |
On June 04 2012 20:12 Reasonable wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous.
Because you make money by selling items on AH for millions of gold every time you do a run. |
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| junghansmega United Kingdom. June 04 2012 21:25. Posts 31 | Profile # |
On ebay you can buy 1 million diablo3 EU gold for roughly 10 euros, i've heard.
I'm guessing the RMAH gold prices will be close to that, probably slightly lower.
To be honest: I doubt we will be seeing the RMAH anytime soon, maybe at all. (In spite of the target date sometime this month)
Diablo3/AH uptime/availability has not been convincing so far.
What if the AH goes down and an Item fetches a far lower price due nobody being able to bid during the downtime... Will I get my Money back then?
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| Felnarion June 04 2012 21:30. Posts 362 | Profile # |
I'd tend to agree. Only the absolute rarest items will command any money up front; most will command gold. Why? For the same reason diamonds aren't legal tender. Cash is an effective trading medium.
As for prices, where it stops is anyone's guess..But I'd think it would come out closer to 1-2-3 dollars per hour. There's already quite a flood of gold, it's not particularly difficult to make,and the game does not take enough off of you to curtail some pretty hardcore inflation. |
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| Gevna France. June 04 2012 21:31. Posts 778 | Profile # |
Am I the only one to think RMAH is a terrible idea and will ruin the game ? I mean, when I play a video game, I've never thought about real money to improve my level of play. All that matters is actualy skill and time, not how much money you have (especially in Diablo where farming is one of the most important point).
Moreover I don't think it will reduce illegal gold selling, since it will banalize the gold buying. People will always seek for the cheapest prices.
I could just don't care about RMAH, but I guess it will have an influence on prices (in normal AH) and you won't be able to make the difference anymore between a guy who farmed his stuff alone, or the guy who took dad's credit card to buy whole stuff.
It's still early to make assertions like I just did, but RMAH is really frightening me. And anyway the whole point of money that influences the way you play the game looks completely wrong to me. |
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| Geiko France. June 04 2012 22:13. Posts 1603 | Profile Blog # |
On June 04 2012 20:12 Reasonable wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous.
You create a game in act4 town, and teleport yourself to the ring merchant. You're looking for +15% ias rings with >70 primary stat (str, vit, dext and int).
Do a couple of these runs until you find one (10-12 seconds per run, you find them in less then 50 runs).
When you found the ring, buy 1000 of them (or more) for 7k each.
Put them on the AH for 22k each (they can sell easily for 30k but you want them gone fast to maximize your profit / time spent).
It takes roughly 7minutes for 10 rings to be sold (5minutes of delay to be listed on the AH, and 2 minutes to sell) with a profit of 12k per ring (120k every 7 minutes). All in al you can get over 1 Million per hour for 5 minutes of work (putting new rings back on the AH) over an hour.
Repeat this procedure with 10 accounts simultaneously.
Last weekend I gave 1 million gold to my friend to buy a weapon, and I just spent exactly 50 minutes to win it all back while watching a movie and logging in every 7 minutes. There are at least 20 or so different people doing this at the same time (you can tell if you check items sold) and people just keep buying the rings... If you're scared that doing this 10 times simultaneously will make you sell your rings slower due to too much offer, you can split 5-5 in EU and US. Last edit: 2012-06-04 22:14:28 |
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| Capped Sri Lanka. June 04 2012 22:16. Posts 2320 | Profile Blog # |
Its already impossible to sell decent to OK items on AH for cheap, its flooded to hell and you've got more chance of shitting up a rope.
RMAH will make this even worse, Only people farming for massive amounts of time and getting near perfect items will be making any profit, gold or cash. |
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| Tektos Australia. June 04 2012 22:39. Posts 1310 | Profile # |
I know people who spent upwards of $3000 upgrading their gear in a game called Rising Force Online. (Korean MMORPG with a cash shop where it was very much pay-to-win).
I even sold my own account for $1200.
Your faith in humanity is much too great if you expect decent items to go for under $100, prices are going to be stupid. |
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| Glacierz United States. June 04 2012 22:51. Posts 467 | Profile Blog # |
On June 04 2012 22:13 Geiko wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 20:12 Reasonable wrote:
On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous.
You create a game in act4 town, and teleport yourself to the ring merchant. You're looking for +15% ias rings with >70 primary stat (str, vit, dext and int). Do a couple of these runs until you find one (10-12 seconds per run, you find them in less then 50 runs). When you found the ring, buy 1000 of them (or more) for 7k each. Put them on the AH for 22k each (they can sell easily for 30k but you want them gone fast to maximize your profit / time spent). It takes roughly 7minutes for 10 rings to be sold (5minutes of delay to be listed on the AH, and 2 minutes to sell) with a profit of 12k per ring (120k every 7 minutes). All in al you can get over 1 Million per hour for 5 minutes of work (putting new rings back on the AH) over an hour. Repeat this procedure with 10 accounts simultaneously. Last weekend I gave 1 million gold to my friend to buy a weapon, and I just spent exactly 50 minutes to win it all back while watching a movie and logging in every 7 minutes. There are at least 20 or so different people doing this at the same time (you can tell if you check items sold) and people just keep buying the rings... If you're scared that doing this 10 times simultaneously will make you sell your rings slower due to too much offer, you can split 5-5 in EU and US.
Is this a4 in inferno only? Also, a3 and a4 share the same town, does it make a difference where you start? |
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| Reasonable Ukraine. June 04 2012 23:27. Posts 1331 | Profile # |
On June 04 2012 22:13 Geiko wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 20:12 Reasonable wrote:
On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous.
You create a game in act4 town, and teleport yourself to the ring merchant. You're looking for +15% ias rings with >70 primary stat (str, vit, dext and int). Do a couple of these runs until you find one (10-12 seconds per run, you find them in less then 50 runs). When you found the ring, buy 1000 of them (or more) for 7k each. Put them on the AH for 22k each (they can sell easily for 30k but you want them gone fast to maximize your profit / time spent). It takes roughly 7minutes for 10 rings to be sold (5minutes of delay to be listed on the AH, and 2 minutes to sell) with a profit of 12k per ring (120k every 7 minutes). All in al you can get over 1 Million per hour for 5 minutes of work (putting new rings back on the AH) over an hour. Repeat this procedure with 10 accounts simultaneously. Last weekend I gave 1 million gold to my friend to buy a weapon, and I just spent exactly 50 minutes to win it all back while watching a movie and logging in every 7 minutes. There are at least 20 or so different people doing this at the same time (you can tell if you check items sold) and people just keep buying the rings... If you're scared that doing this 10 times simultaneously will make you sell your rings slower due to too much offer, you can split 5-5 in EU and US.
Lol this is not farming gold, there is limited demand for these rings. Do this for a week with 100 people and you will bring down price to 10-12k and then its just a waste of time. Wait a couple of weeks and your buyers will start replacing their rings and the price of them will fall below 7k. Simple microeconomics. |
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| Geiko France. June 05 2012 00:07. Posts 1603 | Profile Blog # |
On June 04 2012 22:51 Glacierz wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 22:13 Geiko wrote:
On June 04 2012 20:12 Reasonable wrote:
On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous.
You create a game in act4 town, and teleport yourself to the ring merchant. You're looking for +15% ias rings with >70 primary stat (str, vit, dext and int). Do a couple of these runs until you find one (10-12 seconds per run, you find them in less then 50 runs). When you found the ring, buy 1000 of them (or more) for 7k each. Put them on the AH for 22k each (they can sell easily for 30k but you want them gone fast to maximize your profit / time spent). It takes roughly 7minutes for 10 rings to be sold (5minutes of delay to be listed on the AH, and 2 minutes to sell) with a profit of 12k per ring (120k every 7 minutes). All in al you can get over 1 Million per hour for 5 minutes of work (putting new rings back on the AH) over an hour. Repeat this procedure with 10 accounts simultaneously. Last weekend I gave 1 million gold to my friend to buy a weapon, and I just spent exactly 50 minutes to win it all back while watching a movie and logging in every 7 minutes. There are at least 20 or so different people doing this at the same time (you can tell if you check items sold) and people just keep buying the rings... If you're scared that doing this 10 times simultaneously will make you sell your rings slower due to too much offer, you can split 5-5 in EU and US.
Is this a4 in inferno only? Also, a3 and a4 share the same town, does it make a difference where you start?
I do it act 4 inferno, but it also works in hell (I've found 15ias ring in hell as well).
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| Geiko France. June 05 2012 00:11. Posts 1603 | Profile Blog # |
On June 04 2012 23:27 Reasonable wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 22:13 Geiko wrote:
On June 04 2012 20:12 Reasonable wrote:
On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous.
You create a game in act4 town, and teleport yourself to the ring merchant. You're looking for +15% ias rings with >70 primary stat (str, vit, dext and int). Do a couple of these runs until you find one (10-12 seconds per run, you find them in less then 50 runs). When you found the ring, buy 1000 of them (or more) for 7k each. Put them on the AH for 22k each (they can sell easily for 30k but you want them gone fast to maximize your profit / time spent). It takes roughly 7minutes for 10 rings to be sold (5minutes of delay to be listed on the AH, and 2 minutes to sell) with a profit of 12k per ring (120k every 7 minutes). All in al you can get over 1 Million per hour for 5 minutes of work (putting new rings back on the AH) over an hour. Repeat this procedure with 10 accounts simultaneously. Last weekend I gave 1 million gold to my friend to buy a weapon, and I just spent exactly 50 minutes to win it all back while watching a movie and logging in every 7 minutes. There are at least 20 or so different people doing this at the same time (you can tell if you check items sold) and people just keep buying the rings... If you're scared that doing this 10 times simultaneously will make you sell your rings slower due to too much offer, you can split 5-5 in EU and US.
Lol this is not farming gold, there is limited demand for these rings. Do this for a week with 100 people and you will bring down price to 10-12k and then its just a waste of time. Wait a couple of weeks and your buyers will start replacing their rings and the price of them will fall below 7k. Simple microeconomics.
Actually there is a lot of demand.
This works for ias rings, MF rings, element resist rings...
Also works for amulets.
It's been 1 month since I've discovered it, people were doing it before me, and have been doing ever since and the prices are the same (in fact they went up, from 15k last month to 25k now). As people start new caracters, new players join etc... demand is pretty steady as these rings are quite good for their price. Also you're actually providing a service, as it could take a very long time to find the exact ring you are looking for by yourself. |
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| Felnarion June 05 2012 02:40. Posts 362 | Profile # |
On June 05 2012 00:11 Geiko wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 23:27 Reasonable wrote:
On June 04 2012 22:13 Geiko wrote:
On June 04 2012 20:12 Reasonable wrote:
On June 04 2012 19:46 Geiko wrote:
Currently,a dedicated farmer can easily make 10M per hour with proper ring farming.
I doubt the prices for gold will be anywhere near 3-4$/Millions
How can you possibly make 10M per hour? That is a 1000 gold must drop every 3 seconds. How on earth can you achieve anything near this? The farmer will get his ass chewed by the first elite mob if he doesn't clear the area properly in order to lead it away or kill it. Either you do it with valors or not, you won't get more than 1-2M an hour. Even that sounds rather ridiculous.
You create a game in act4 town, and teleport yourself to the ring merchant. You're looking for +15% ias rings with >70 primary stat (str, vit, dext and int). Do a couple of these runs until you find one (10-12 seconds per run, you find them in less then 50 runs). When you found the ring, buy 1000 of them (or more) for 7k each. Put them on the AH for 22k each (they can sell easily for 30k but you want them gone fast to maximize your profit / time spent). It takes roughly 7minutes for 10 rings to be sold (5minutes of delay to be listed on the AH, and 2 minutes to sell) with a profit of 12k per ring (120k every 7 minutes). All in al you can get over 1 Million per hour for 5 minutes of work (putting new rings back on the AH) over an hour. Repeat this procedure with 10 accounts simultaneously. Last weekend I gave 1 million gold to my friend to buy a weapon, and I just spent exactly 50 minutes to win it all back while watching a movie and logging in every 7 minutes. There are at least 20 or so different people doing this at the same time (you can tell if you check items sold) and people just keep buying the rings... If you're scared that doing this 10 times simultaneously will make you sell your rings slower due to too much offer, you can split 5-5 in EU and US.
Lol this is not farming gold, there is limited demand for these rings. Do this for a week with 100 people and you will bring down price to 10-12k and then its just a waste of time. Wait a couple of weeks and your buyers will start replacing their rings and the price of them will fall below 7k. Simple microeconomics.
Actually there is a lot of demand. This works for ias rings, MF rings, element resist rings... Also works for amulets. It's been 1 month since I've discovered it, people were doing it before me, and have been doing ever since and the prices are the same (in fact they went up, from 15k last month to 25k now). As people start new caracters, new players join etc... demand is pretty steady as these rings are quite good for their price. Also you're actually providing a service, as it could take a very long time to find the exact ring you are looking for by yourself.
I disagree: I think there is very finite demand. It's a fact that the player base is quite limited. While huge, it won't grow significantly from here, in fact, it will remain flat, then shrink. So there's that.
But on top of that, people will make, at most, 5 characters. Why do you need more, what are you going to do with the others? You can constantly respect the ones you make (outside of HC, a very small portion of the community) so once that character is fully geared...Where do you go from there? Why does demand keep increasing? Supply will be less and less constrained as time passes, and demand will also increase, and then stay flat, then drop slowly, and then sharply. |
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