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Newbie Mini Mafia XVI - Page 26

Forum Index > TL Mafia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 All
 
 Vivax   Italy. June 15 2012 06:54. Posts 3836
Profile Blog # 
Yea
Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. June 15 2012 07:36. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 

On June 15 2012 06:22 Vivax wrote:
Ok. I have analyzed ha2's posts especially concentrating on his voting behavior.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342960&currentpage=13#247

Here voted s0lstice after defending from Release, without posting any case against s0lstice.

Then he votes Release omgus style, but only after he voted for s0lstice for whatever reason.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342960&currentpage=13#247

Here that pattern repeats again. He defends from Release, and votes for grush based on something which has been repeated over and over by whole town.
On the other hand, there's really not that much to say about grush, his play was...original. The point isn't as strong, but the repeating pattern 'make cases against 1, vote 2 for no reason' is kinda suspicious.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=494&topic_id=342960

The last post.

He has been playing in incredibly inconsistent way regarding his very few votes, while mantaining a style trying to post as few as he can. He only starts engaging into discussion when there are townies pressuring him, and even then he keeps his posts as short as possible.

Please consider what I wrote just now if I die tonight. If I survive, I will reevaluate the case against him with more information.
For sure he's a lategame lurker when there is so much information available. He didn't post any lengthy cases yet, just defending and bandwagoning.

Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides

Shiaopi + lazer + kthez
myself + ha + vivax

If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand?

Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us.

One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT.

Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different.

That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims.

What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned,

Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not)

Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned)

You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post.

Kthez, you better watch your back.




Old Post

 
 EchelonTee   United States. June 15 2012 07:38. Posts 3404
Profile # 

On June 15 2012 06:54 Lazermonkey wrote:
The Daypost is up in an hour, right?

22 minutes from this time.
learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9] || Na`Vi - LGD - Dignitas - Liquid - Fnatic
Old Post

 
 KtheZ   United States. June 15 2012 07:55. Posts 669
Profile Blog # 
The case against ha:

We have spent a large proportion of the second day cycle bickering amongst ourselves after the grush/me roleclaim. Throughout this entire series of dialogue not one of us had taken notice of any "lurking" being done, which can be attributed to release's extreme post amount (which isn't a bad thing).
Throughout the second day, ha did an amazing job of diffusing responsibility off of himself. He only posted with contentless posts, and the grush/Me claim created enough controversy to be able to throw him off our radars. Not only has ha not contributed to town whatsoever within the recent days, he has laid extremely low, which is a great scumtell to me, since the lynches within these few days are extremely integral to our victory.

Since I know that me and Lazermonkey are town, the mafia definitely lie within release, ha, ShiaoPi, and vivax.

Release has been a very good poster within the few days. I do not understand his recent accusations but his play during the recent days has proved to me as a great pro-town read.

ShiaoPi I am still unsure of, but since I am DT and he claimed the roleblock (without counterclaims) it is within reason to believe that he is town.

Ha is almost certainly mafia, as detailed above.

The last person on the list is vivax. Although vivax has responded to Lazermonkey's attacks with decent responses of his own, by process of elimination, vivax is probably the second mafia to town. However, my scum read against him relies on the others being town within a reasonable doubt.

Thus, I can conclude that the mafia team is ha and vivax, and the next day lynch should be ha.
Looking at release's post, it is definitely a possiblity that I will be roleblocked this night and spared, because then I cannot confirm anything to town. It is important that you all listen to my analysis so we can get through this for a victory
Old Post

 
 KtheZ   United States. June 15 2012 07:57. Posts 669
Profile Blog # 
This post was shorter than I expected
Old Post

 
 EchelonTee   United States. June 15 2012 07:57. Posts 3404
Profile # 
Day post will be delayed by 10 minutes. Absolutely no posting in that period.
learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9] || Na`Vi - LGD - Dignitas - Liquid - Fnatic
Old Post

 
 KtheZ   United States. June 15 2012 07:58. Posts 669
Profile Blog # 

On June 15 2012 07:36 Release wrote:

Show nested quote +


Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides

Shiaopi + lazer + kthez
myself + ha + vivax

If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand?

Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us.

One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT.

Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different.

That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims.

What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned,

Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not)

Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned)

You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post.

Kthez, you better watch your back.







Release your support in the consecutive mislynches and your tunneling makes me very sad that I am in your sights.
Old Post

 
 Lazermonkey   Sweden. June 15 2012 07:59. Posts 1131
Profile # 
Important shit here. Please read

Everyone, I am the detective!

So my first check was on Vivax. Release seemed to think that a check on anyone other than grush or ha236 was a bad check. I don't agree with this at all. First off, this is a noob game and their play could be explained by them being inexperienced. Or rather grush, because I never really had a scum read on Ha236 anyway. Also, in case that were to show town I would either need to claim in order to save one of the weaker townies which means no more checks for me or I had to defend them while they were acting suspicious without me claiming. I would either risk a lynch of them anyway or even a lynch on myself for defending a suspicious person and swaping my read super hard(said I was willing to lynch grush D1, Wants to stop the lynch on him D2...) My reason Vivax for this was because of his play. He didn't apear clearly scummy with his ''nice'' posts. But still, his unwillingness to take a stance anywhere. This wasn't his first game so he should know the basics of town play. I didn't find anything that pointed in that direction.Vivax showed as scum!

Regarding the second scum, I am 99,9% sure this is Kthez. He have faked a DT claim at this point. I'm not even sure you need any more evidence than this. He even claimed me to be town. What townie would do such a thing? My guess is that Kthez was feeling the hard pressure against him and when he saw grush claim DT, he took the opportunity as he felt most people would rather belive him than grush in a 1vs1. This would lead into a 2-1 where Vivax could've gotten lots of town cred by bussing him. If Kthez is a townie, he is the worst one ever. Btw, I decided to check Kthez this night.

I don't have a way to 100% confirm myself as detective so you will not know if my claim here is true or not. But you can be sure that either me or Vivax is scum here. I will not really push the case vs Vivax here either. In case I die tonight, you will all know I spoke the truth. If I survive, I will be able to push the case against him for 48 hours. I recomend you guys to take a very close look at their filters as well as mine and try to think you is the most likely scum at this point. Essentially if I survive the night, D3 will come down to a lynch on me vs a lynch on Vivax/Kthez. If I die, it's insta GG, town wins!

When writing this, I feel I probebly could've posted this way earlier. My head was just sooo full of fuck with two guys claiming DT when it was obvious not only that both of them were lying but also that one of them HAD to be town.
Old Post

 
 ShiaoPi   Taiwan. June 15 2012 07:59. Posts 1357
Profile # 
As you say Release, it all depends on how the night hit plays out. I would assume scum would like to keep us in the dark by simply RB'ing the DT and just go with a kill on you, since if people follow your post they would lynch Kthez next, which would be game over if he is in fact DT.

What I do not understand is how you can say that town is split right now. The only thing which connects me to KtheZ is my claim of being RB'ed. There is nothing else tying me to him and close to nothing that ties me to Lazer. If you want to call something a split, the thing remotely close to it is Vivax vs. Lazer and ha vs. Release. These are the "hard" stances you have taken until now.

The Vivax vs. Lazer case does not convince me either way and ha's play has not really improved, sure he posted one case against Release, but it was fairly weak (at least in my opinion).

At the moment my feeling right now is that it is either ha+Vivax or Release+Vivax.

You might think it weird, but fuck I am running out of time, if I am alive you will get further reasoning
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. June 15 2012 07:59. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 

On June 15 2012 07:58 KtheZ wrote:

Show nested quote +



Release your support in the consecutive mislynches and your tunneling makes me very sad that I am in your sights.

You should read more carefully so you can find out what kind of defense i want.
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. June 15 2012 08:00. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 

On June 15 2012 07:36 Release wrote:

Show nested quote +


Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides

Shiaopi + lazer + kthez
myself + ha + vivax

If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand?

Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us.

One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT.

Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different.

That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims.

What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned,

Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not)

Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned)

You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post.

Kthez, you better watch your back.






Old Post

 
 EchelonTee   United States. June 15 2012 08:18. Posts 3404
Profile # 
Day 3

[image loading]

The Prince of Persia was exhausted. Though it had only been 2 days, it had been 2 days of non-stop, vicious fighting, and his peerless strength was starting to falter. He he destroyed hordes, defeated towering grotesques, and traversed the deadliest of traps. Yet an unmovable obstacle had finally cornered him off. Behind him, an impassable cliff. Before him, an unfathomable monster.

He thought of his love The_Zen_Man, whom he had horribly betrayed out of misguided information. He thought of his father, whom he had been forced to put down. He thought of the fallen, slain and murdered without a second thought. He knew he had done what he could; it was up to his comrades to win the war, not him. As his life flashed before his eyes, he felt content knowing that he had done what he could to save the world.

"If only I had more time..."

The monster approached. Feeling his blood boil with that familiar furor, he felt the warrior within unleashed, one last time, as they clashed in glorious combat.

Lazermonkey, the Prince of Persia (Town Detective) was defeated!


Day 3 has begun! You have until 6/16/2012 4:00 PDT[local] to cast your votes. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. 48 hours until sundown.
Last edit: 2012-06-15 08:19:23
learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9] || Na`Vi - LGD - Dignitas - Liquid - Fnatic
Old Post

 
 ShiaoPi   Taiwan. June 15 2012 08:19. Posts 1357
Profile # 
die die die Vivax >_>
Old Post

 
 KtheZ   United States. June 15 2012 08:20. Posts 669
Profile Blog # 
Well this is awkward
Old Post

 
 Lazermonkey   Sweden. June 15 2012 08:20. Posts 1131
Profile # 
GG town! : )
Old Post

 
 ShiaoPi   Taiwan. June 15 2012 08:20. Posts 1357
Profile # 
GG Lazer, well played
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. June 15 2012 08:21. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
this is Lazer's breadcrumb btw if you didn't know:

On June 12 2012 21:44 Lazermonkey wrote:
The case on Vivax

Vivax post count is okay given that he he missed basically the first 24 hours or so of the game so note that I'm not actually usuing his lurking as a reason for his suspicion but rather the content in his posts.He have been playing insanely passive up untill this point. You should all check out his filter. This guy has during D1 pretty much not taken a clear stance anywhere.
+ Show Spoiler +
The first post by Vivax. Note that this is a long post. Note what he is saying. Well, what is he saying? Release is pushing grush hard but still he think it's good. grush is strange but he could very well be town. He is willing to lynch grush, at least under some circumstances. What did he REALLY say here? Remember my first post where I talked about different types of lurkers? This is the type who writes hellofapost and still very little content.
+ Show Spoiler +
So here is a summary post. Contains our opinions about grush. Not his own tho.

+ Show Spoiler +
So he does not like ha236 lynch. I'm okay with that. I'm even okay with that he says he is willing to lynch into Ha236 if he needs to, in order to archive majority. What I'm NOT okey with is that he still doesn't give an option. He is fast on on dismiss both grush and ha236 as targets but what does he think himself? Still he havn't given one scumread himself.
+ Show Spoiler +
His first real case on someone. This time he gives some actual opnions, which is good. However, why the FoS? Why not a vote? He first agrees with alot of my points about Zen_Man and also brings up a couple of new ones. All in all, the whole posts are filled with accusations yet he only FoS him. I feel like he is testing the waters here.
+ Show Spoiler +
Strange post. You said earlier that in case of majority on Zen_Man, you would vote him. Yet you don't. Contradiction here. Vivax finally decides to vote Zen_Man anyway but only after both Ha236 and s0lstice have laid down their votes.
+ Show Spoiler +
The tone is this post is sooo... I don't know, different? You finally give out reads. In the end of your post tho, you say you have no decisive scumreads tho. You still vote grush right away. Think about how hard it was for him to vote Zen_Man last night even tho he had loads of suspicion on him and compare to this. wtf. You would also fine with lynching any of theese 3. I feel you're almost wanting to lynch for the sake of lynching here. We don't lynch because of that, we lynch because we want to kill scum. At least one of these persons must be townie but you are still okay with lynching any of them. And your motivations for lynching any of them is kinda meh. Your problems with both Ha and KTheZ seems to be their activity level and not the content of their posts.

Overall, this guy has basically taken no strong stances anywhere. He makes huge posts with little to no content. All players he have put up this ''weak'' pressure on are those who are already under heavy fire. First grush, then Ha236, then Zen_Man and lastly KTheZ. With all these players(maybe not Zen_Man tho) he basically says ''I'm willing to lynch if necesary but I'm not sure he is scum''. This is classic bandwagon play.
##Vote: Vivax

Old Post

 
 ShiaoPi   Taiwan. June 15 2012 08:21. Posts 1357
Profile # 
##Vote: Vivax
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. June 15 2012 08:22. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
I caught it the first time, but the Grush-Kthez fiasco and my fixation on ha236 was too much.

Kthez, who did you check last night?
Old Post

 
 Release   United States. June 15 2012 08:22. Posts 3973
Profile Blog # 
##vote: vivax
Old Post

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