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| Miltonkram United States. June 18 2012 08:40. Posts 310 | Profile # |
| Haven't been in the thread because a combination of girlfriend aggro and preparations for Father's Day kept me away. I'm just about to head off to work so I won't be able to be a part of any voteswitching shenanigans (might be a good thing). The silence from our suspect seems pretty damning though. I'm starting to get really excited :D |
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| zelblade Singapore. June 18 2012 09:00. Posts 872 | Profile # |
Night 2
"What do you desire?
Fortune? Power? Fame?Glory?
Or something that suppresses all others?"
trackd00r the veteran has been lynched.
Night 2 has begun.
You have 24 hours to submit all night actions. Remember to submit them to both hosts!
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| sciberbia United States. June 18 2012 09:01. Posts 781 | Profile # | |
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| s0Lstice United States. June 18 2012 09:02. Posts 844 | Profile # |
trackd00r where the heck did you go? gg
that's really frustrating |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| sciberbia United States. June 18 2012 09:02. Posts 781 | Profile # | |
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| zelblade Singapore. June 18 2012 09:02. Posts 872 | Profile # |
Day 2 Final Votecount
Suki
Sciberbia
Crossfire99
Trackd00r(7)
Suki
Miltonkram
s0Lstice
alan133
O.Golden_ne
Sciberbia
Crossfire99
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| zelblade Singapore. June 18 2012 09:03. Posts 872 | Profile # |
| Warning to unforgiven_ve for failing to vote. |
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| EchelonTee United States. June 18 2012 09:17. Posts 3403 | Profile # | |
| | learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9] || Na`Vi - LGD - Dignitas - Liquid - Fnatic |
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| O.Golden_ne Australia. June 18 2012 09:32. Posts 204 | Profile # |
| wtf mang... this is crap. |
| | Like a baneling in a mineral line |
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| O.Golden_ne Australia. June 18 2012 09:33. Posts 204 | Profile # |
| i mean we're still ahead. but this is no good. |
| | Like a baneling in a mineral line |
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| Xatalos Finland. June 18 2012 10:30. Posts 890 | Profile # |
Veteran as the least likely townie to be shot... Nice luck for town!  |
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| s0Lstice United States. June 18 2012 11:45. Posts 844 | Profile # |
Alright so I'm pretty pissed we didn't get that perfect victory. I really shouldn't still be awake, but I'm in angry analysis mode. + Show Spoiler +Also Xatalos wtf are you doing in here?! Hi btw ;D
Nothing has changed with the people I'm reading town. Let's go back to the list:
-suki
-golden
-unforgiven
-crossfire99
The scum has to be in there. I cleared crossfire before, but I'm putting him back in for the moment so I'm not leaving any stone unturned.
O.Golden.ne: Our first flipped scum spent all of day 1 trying to get him lynched. This would be an extremely ballsy bus move, and it's like pie in the sky unlikely. Must be town
Unforgiven: Both our flipped scum tried to get Mouldy Jeb lynched on day 1. HeavOnEarth had him as a top scum read, and roflewaffles said 'hey if we can't get a majority let's totally lynch Mouldy Jeb!' So for the same reasons: must be town
Crossfire99: I cleared him before because he was the first person to call out roflewaffles following HeavOnEarth's flip. I went back to NMM XIII and looked hard at his play again. I saw in there that he bussed his teammate Mufaa, and up until that point it was the most solid analysis/pressure put on the guy. I wouldn't consider it above a scum Crossfire to bus waffles in the way he did. Still, the simplest explanation here is that they are not teammates.
Look at roflewaffles day 1 play. He saw his teammate was about to be lynched...what was he doing to try and stop it? Pushing Crossfire. This is similar to what heist did in NMM XV. Scum heist tunneled hard on a player to try to create a counter movement that would stop his teammate from being lynched. Heist's counter movement target of course was town, just like roflewaffles counter movement target must be town.
Suki: this leaves you my dear. All the arrows point in your direction. You've fought valiantly, but I want to kill you know.
I want to know how everyone feels about killing Suki on day 3. |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| sciberbia United States. June 18 2012 11:59. Posts 781 | Profile # |
@s0Lstice
I'll post more later. For now, what are your opinions on miltonkram? |
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| s0Lstice United States. June 18 2012 12:36. Posts 844 | Profile # |
The thought ran through my head that if suki actually flipped town, I might want to lynch milton next. That was just a passing thought though. I'm on my phone right now, so I'll just post stuff that I got in short term memory.
His joke vote on you would be a weird thing for scum to do. A needless risk for early game. I don't remember the exact chronology but I think he was pretty early to push heavonearth. I'll look through his filter in depth tomorrow, but I've been getting a pretty good town vibe from him. |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| alan133 Malaysia. June 18 2012 12:36. Posts 136 | Profile # |
I seriously thought we nailed it with trackd00r, especially when he did not defend himself.
I want to start with a few questions for the mods
When a scum is dead, is he/she still allowed to contribute in the scum chat?
I read the answer regarding scum RB and killing. If there are 3 scums with killing ability, are they allowed to kill 3 person (1 person each) provided they don't use their role's special ability?
@Blue Night Actions
I don't know if we should discuss blue night actions now, but given that I already am a confirmed one-shot vigilante that has already used up his shot, here are my suggestions:
Cop:
I know it is obvious I am town, but if you aren't convinced I am Vig, there is no reason real vig don't counter claim, so use it on someone else. I think the priority comes down to this. Use it on the person you FoS most. If you can't come out with one, use it on a lurker, since they are really hard to read. However, if I am cop, I would have picked s0Lstice. He reads town, but the suggestion really throws me off. I really want to know if I can really trust such an influential player, especially when he proposed his plan.
Medic:
Don't use it on me. I am basically a VT now. Use it to save other potential blues. If I were you I will use it on my most comfortable town read, and if there is a tie, I will go for the most influential and analytic one.
Jailer:
Go for your main FoS. If there is a kill, he is certainly clean. If there is no kill, it could be: The person you jailed is scum. Medic saved victim. Scum No kill <---- (unlikely)
If scums are jailed, I assume they can't kill that night, no?
Vigilante:
I don't know if there is another one out there, but if there is, shoot only you are certain. Don't hide even if you kill an innocent, just out it so we can identify another 100% clear. Also, don't shoot me.
If multiple vigs went for the same target, do they all lose their bullets?
Veteran:
If there is a second one, claim in Day 3 if you are hit.
@O.Golden_ne
Now that trackd00r flipped town, you are my next FoS as stated in my day 2 post. I think given our current situation, it is okay to be a little depressed. Can you explain why this game made you so anxious as you stated in day 2? I think town was in pretty good shape in day 2 and if anything, it caused me to get careless. If you are town just answer truthfully, don't lie just because you think the truth is less convincing.
Give your last day's post, your FoS is Crossfire now. This is due to the vote thing, but Crossfire did not vote because he was involved in an accident and is unable to return to vote, so that clears him off your radar. Who is your main FoS currently?
@Suki
Many people has mentioned suki. I think she is the current "most wanted" person. I will reserve my judgement until I re-examine her again.
Day 3 stuffs that is currently not important and shouldn't be the priority in current discussions:
Should we mass role claim in day 3? If PMs are allowed I would have asked for everyone to PM their roles in day 2 already. I want to know if anyone agrees/disagree.
I hope we all keep an open mind. As long as someone is not 100% confirmed, leave some rooms for doubts. And if that last scum wants to take me out, COME AT ME BRO. |
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| sciberbia United States. June 18 2012 12:44. Posts 781 | Profile # |
@alan
I don't think mass roleclaim is a good idea. If we have a cop, we probably don't have a medic/jailkeepr, so I don't want to make cop come out before he judges it's the right time. Also, it's a semi-open setup, so it's pretty damn hard to figure out if anyone is lying.
Anyway, I've been kidna panicking a bit after seeing the trackd00r flip. I was looking foward to enjoying some post game talk, but now I'll just be happy if I don't feel like an idiot after this game.
Anyway, here are some reads on the 7 players left not named sciberbia:
short version:+ Show Spoiler +
alan - confirmed vigi
MJ/unforgiven - probably town
golden - probably town
s0Lstice - probably town
crossfire - probably town
miltonkram - idk
suki - kinda scummy
long version:
alan+ Show Spoiler +
confirmed vigi. Nobody else claimed the shot, and somebody obviously did it, so alan is for sure vigi.
golden+ Show Spoiler +
I'd be pretty shocked if golden were mafia. I honestly haven't even looked at his filter that much, but just from looking at roflwaffles's filter, I don't think golden can be mafia.
crossfire+ Show Spoiler +
Both confirmed scum attacked him, and tried to get him lynched. Also, the two confirmed scum are failry newbie (no offense) so I just don't see this as being a bus. Pretty definite he is town.
MJ/unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Nothing in these 2 filters is of much value, but as s0Lstice pointed out, both confirmed scum had no problem dumping suspicion on MJ. So I think it's pretty unlikely that he is scum.
s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler +
Hmm I guess it's possbile that s0Lstice just bussed the crap out of the other scum, and in hindsight it probably would have been a smart strategy for him to pull as mafia. And s0Lstice is a pretty smart player.
But he has played about as pro-town as you can get and his whole filter gives me a townie feel. I'm slightly paranoid that he could be mafia, but I really just don't see it.
miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +
I'm not saying that he looks really scummy, but I don't see why he can't be scum. The only major thing in his favor is his pretty good accusations of HeavOnEarth during D1. But I could maybe see him making that bus. I'll write more about him in another post.
suki+ Show Spoiler +
I feel it's pretty likely that suki is the last mafia. I've already written a lot on her case.
The only things really holding me back are the NK of austinmcc and her high activity D2. But I don't see how we can not lynch her just based on that. Maybe she just wanted to see if she could avoid one more lynch for the lulz? Idk..
So in response to s0Lstice's query, I'm totally down with lynching suki D3 (sorry suki).
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| s0Lstice United States. June 18 2012 12:46. Posts 844 | Profile # |
Also sciberbia,
The NK of austin wouldn't make much sense for a scum milton. Austin did not suspect him, and if Milton was scum he would have killed off the strongest town read he could find. |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| s0Lstice United States. June 18 2012 12:54. Posts 844 | Profile # |
| in regards to the NK of austin for a scum suki...it's not crazy to think that she would not want to kill someone accusing her, as that person's cases would then carry more weight |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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| suki Canada. June 18 2012 12:56. Posts 183 | Profile # |
My outlook on the game post-lynch:
People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately.
I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis.
My reasoning for tunnelling someone aggressively is that if there really are other scummy players, they will be picked out by the other townies, meanwhile my analysis will either find scum, or force townies to act more townie, or force mistakes from scum.
There are two people who stand out at the moment in my opinion:
---
Mouldyjeb/unforgiven:
+ Show Spoiler +
Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early.
Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1.
---
golden:
Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game.
despite saying this, he is hardly aggressive.
Found Mouldyjeb suspicious. Found austinmcc suspicious but doesn't explain why.
Austinmcc pressured golden for 'broken promises to contribute more'. Golden got really really offended at it. Could see an angry golden just shooting austinmcc N1 just to get back at him. Haha.
I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly.
forgets that heavOnEarth attacked him. Possibly just didn't give his teammate's post much thought.
from crossfire's lynch summary post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15090823 ), note that Golden was 6th to vote for heav0nEarth. Right in the middle of the pack is a good time for a mafia to jump on a bandwagon.
Here is alan's case on golden ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104147 , summary here : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104403 )
It is pretty in depth and I suggest people read it.
.
Also note that golden gave no reason for jumping on trackd00r. He simply stated he said trackd00r was #1 on his scum list and voted him.
=====
In summary:
I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden.
Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. |
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| s0Lstice United States. June 18 2012 13:00. Posts 844 | Profile # |
Suki, you are saying then that HeavOnEarth, confirmed scum, began bussing his teammate in his very first post, and spent his entire time in this game trying to get his teammate lynched.
Please explain this. |
| | how if I seem like fox b Lynch I not inspire hippie--Blazinghand |
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