TL Mafia LVI - Page 71

Fixed.

There's a reason I'm keeping the townreads to myself still, you should have posted this list right before the daypost.

You don't think it's a bad idea to post it now?
.

Mafia would know who's town anyways. VE's list isn't going to magically make people town or scum. This seems like bad justification to hide reads.

VisceraEyes United States. July 06 2012 07:13. Posts 9734

Profile Blog #

It's also coming from the perspective of someone who knows my alignment (not mafia). :/

But obviously I think he's scum, so....

Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET****

Vivax Italy. July 06 2012 07:28. Posts 3880

Profile Blog #

Whatever, doesn't hurt town if I post my reads right before the daypost, but it might hurt town if I do it before.

Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81

kingdedede Kazakhstan. July 06 2012 08:23. Posts 80

Profile #

Was planning on making this a bit more detailed, but it'll have to do. Going to bed now; in case I die here are my reads.

Twelve and Vivax: my earlier post explains my stance. I don't like their play, but the only way they're scum is with a rather strange mistake in their strategy. Mistakes happen, but for now just a wary "watching them".

Hyaach: somewhat similar. I don't get how KtheZ would end up on that list if he was scum.

Katina: seems to have stepped up her play. Currently null.

BKE: flew under my radar in D2 by being active, but on a second look through his reads are really on the usual suspects and he just sorta sheeps with enough content to seem like he's contributing while rehashing other people's arguments. Then goes afk and comes back to tell off everybody for lynching ET. Not sure why he ever dropped off my scumdar. Want to lynch.

Maju: could be newbie town, but pretty null overall. One thing is that Maju as scum has gotten caught on D1 in both my games. This D1 seems acceptable for a newbie town. I like that he's making sense. He's using decent logic and not taking bullshit (see response to BM and his role in the ET/wiggl3s spat). Sensible play doesn't make him town, but it does mean I feel more confident to be able to read him.

Grush: I probably shouldn't be transferring reads from one game to another, but I think he's scum in SSB and I think he's playing the exact same style in this game... a sort of trolly lurker style. I like the lynch.

ShiaoPi: still reading a newbie town here. His absense is a bit worrying, but seems like a bad lynch.

casualman, Kurumi: unreadable. Someone advised earlier to not DT check these, but these seem to me exactly where DT checks should be used: they are unreadable and will be unreadable all game. Grush might also be in this list, but I feel he's scummier than either of these two.

Rest are null or town and don't get a special mention here.

ShiaoPi Taiwan. July 06 2012 09:02. Posts 1357

Profile #

First off, I apologize for being absent that long, stuff came up. But...
How the hell did we end up lynching the person who was going to be modkilled either way?!
Looking at the vote the following persons were switching last minute, I'll share some thoughts:

Acrofales:
I can live with the reasoning he provided here. + Show Spoiler +

On July 05 2012 05:50 Acrofales wrote:
Okay. Gone over the whole passage and it's a giant contradiction. I can't make sense of this. Just gonna post it in case someone else can make sense of the screwball logic that is happening here:

First relevant post, when Twelve goes all paranoid theory:
+ Show Spoiler +

On July 03 2012 06:43 Twelve wrote:
I'm hesitant to post this,but I have a feeling I may be killed tonight, and a REALLY strong feeling NoSmurfHere WILL NOT be Mafia killed tonight. I made a list of people who jumped on the mKmKmK lynch as I felt it was just an attempt of mafia to get a townie lurker lynched. As I went through the list of names using their filters, I came to some tentative conclusions.

My current read is that if there is a Ringleader in this game (godfather), it is NoSmurfHere.

+ Show Spoiler +

I feel he may be breadcrumbing for a detective role check. It was just a note next to his name when I

Look at the interaction between NoSmurfHere and rastaban. After NoSmurfHere starts the bandwagon against mKmKmK(a lurker lynch I really didn't agree with), he seems very interested in a role claim from NoSmurfHere, perhaps trying to get a detective to waste a night and make a really dangerous "confirmed towny".

+ Show Spoiler +

I may be reaching, but again, I think I may wake up dead and wanted to get my thoughts out there.

Is he trying to link Bugs and Rastaban as scum members?

He quotes Rastaban talking with EchelonTee about Bugs's VT roleclaim and says he's quoting an exchange between Rastaban and Bugs.
At the time, I read this as him saying Rastaban or mK was a town DT who Bugs was trying to poke into checking him at night.

I also didn't read Rastaban's post as him saying someone should check Bugs at night, but rather someone should check mK. So this whole thing confused me and all I got from that was "he says bugs is scum, but out-wifoms himself and says he's the godfather". That has two explanations: he's scum and knows bugs will look like town, or he's a townie out-wifoming himself who really thinks bugs is scumslipping his godfather role (as marvellosity seemed to think). What I didn't get from it was the theory of Bugs+Rastaban scumbuddies.

The follow-up at daytime:
+ Show Spoiler +
So this could be the fantastic failing of a scumplan and him covering it up. Or it could be a townie explaining how his giant conspiracy theory just failed spectacularly. I think this needs to be sorted out before we lynch Twelve and I am kinda backing down from my case. The rest of his filter is still terrible, but I agree that this whole conspiracy theory into backpedalling is too fucking weird to see from a scum mindset from my point of view.

##unvote for now.

[/b][/blue]
He is at least making some solid reasoning behind it.

[b]Vivax:
What made you switch from this:

On July 05 2012 07:12 Vivax wrote:
ET's replacement should be bombarded with accusations once and if one joins.

For now back to Twelve since I don't wanna risk ET getting lynched when he could be modkilled.

I really hope he doesn't flip town.

to this?

On July 05 2012 09:21 Vivax wrote:
-.-

Ok, I'll vote ET again. If anyone believes in twelve, switch too.

Need 4 votes I think.

When you have been on the fence about twelve all day long... I had a pretty sure townread on you due to meta but that switch really makes me doubt it.

Twelve:
This here seems reasonable:

On July 05 2012 19:45 Twelve wrote:
I did'nt have a strong read on ET one way or the other. I switched to ET because mathematically, if I had voted for any other person, I would have been the one getting lynched.

@casualman I've been asking about you and BKE since day one, don't try and act like my play has shifted dramatically.

But the stuff from D1-D2 still remains and I really wished we had flipped you...

Kurumi:
Still a god damn null. But I really don't like the last-minute switch, coupled with the general unhelpfullness until now, tending scum.

NSH:
I really dislike the reason he provided, which was basically sheeping. [spoiler]

On July 05 2012 09:58 NoSmurfHere wrote:
I've switched my vote upon seeing the voter list and that Acro switched as well.

I trust his judgment as I've been afk. Reading now

[/spoiler]
Compare that to certainty he had in all his scumreads until now (twelve, me etc.) and his general feel of confidence in his reads he gives out. When asked about it his further explanations are the following:
[spoiler]

On July 06 2012 06:52 NoSmurfHere wrote:
Austin, I think you make very good points. The reason I sheeped Acro was because I had been afk for about 12-13 hours and I wanted to ensure that my vote traveled with the pertinent information I missed. Obviously I shouldn't have switched but I saw Acro, VE and a couple others on ET. I also had a nagging scumread of ET based on his absence but I suppose that can be explained by the holiday in retrospect.

My townread on Acro was based on him pushing BM so mercilessly. I actually considered for a time that he might be an active scum attempting to establish himself but I don't remember at which point I dropped him as a suspect; I suppose it was because there were too many people who were scummier than him.

Let's see what happens in the next cycle. I'm still very interested in killing grush. ShiaoPi is still suspicious as well.

I'll be back later if I'm still alive, gotta go to discussion for my class now.

[/spoiler]

Reread that and tell me it is not just a rehashed version of sheeping. If he was confident in his scumreads (as he seemed to be) why does he feel the need to switch off it for a "nagging scumread", which was not on his to-kill-list? The rest of his filter is looking extremely town to me, cannot say I have a clear scumread on him but this switch is making me doubt my townread and tending towards a null.

Austin
He has been semi-lurky until yesterday when he proposed (or jumped on, depending how you see Vivax' role in it) the ET switch.
What makes me wonder is how this [spoiler]

On July 05 2012 09:29 austinmcc wrote:
Blech. Removing my vote from ET. If he gets replaced, I'm all for lynching whoever comes in. Sorry replacement guy!

[/spoiler] can turn into this [spoiler]

On July 05 2012 09:35 austinmcc wrote:
Will leave my vote on ET if this is picking up steam. Katina would be my second choice, but that's no longer an option this cycle and I'd rather get ET out of the way if this is a serious swap.

[/spoiler] in the span of 5 minutes. The fact that ET was going to be replaced/modkilled was unchanged. Why switch then? Because you were "curious" as you say in the follow-up? This is effectively no reason to me.
The austin I know does not lurk and does not flip-flop like that before lynchtime (except for heist, but yeah

). Since your activity stepped up a lot after the lynch I am willing to exonerate you for now.

So what do I want to convey we do the next day?
lynch/blow up/vig the following personns:
grush, Kurumi, casualman

While keeping an eye open on:
NSH, Austin, hyaach, twelve, BKE, Mandalor

ShiaoPi Taiwan. July 06 2012 09:03. Posts 1357

Profile #

EBWOP:
duh, screwed up the formating stuff, hopefully still readable

Mandalor Germany. July 06 2012 09:22. Posts 2166

Profile Blog #

Alright. I'll be gone for the night. Just some quick thoughts for now.

The voting was too fishy to be random town stupidity in my book. I suspect one or two of the guys switching to ET to be scum. Probably not the guy who started it, would be too obvious. Mafia just picked up on a townie changing votes and got the bandwagon rolling.

uTpRiDe.515

casualman United States. July 06 2012 09:43. Posts 894

Profile #

acro and ve

they must die

EMCEE

Vivax Italy. July 06 2012 09:59. Posts 3880

Profile Blog #

Here are some of the connections @ Adam. I wonder why noone posted this stuff since his death yet.

On July 01 2012 11:47 Adam4167 wrote:

Vigs, shoot him tonight. Lets not waste a lynch and a full day cycle worth of discussion on someone who is trolling us.

On July 01 2012 17:43 Adam4167 wrote:

I touched on casualman earlier but for completeness: it looks like a blatant troll and is probably a smurf having a laugh. His alignment is a coin flip between troll town or troll scum running a gambit, hence why I said a vig should sort this one out.

Referring to casualman.Adam using the 'Don't lynch the troll'-argument. Is casualman useful for mafia or is he mafia? But Adam asks vigi to shoot him, so I think casualman is a troll town.

On July 01 2012 11:47 Adam4167 wrote:
I think you are scum.

##Vote: Mandalor

Mandalor townie.

On July 03 2012 03:57 Adam4167 wrote:
VE, are you done catching up yet? You're much less present in the thread then ive come to expect from you, wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts

VE townie or just superficial conversation?

On July 01 2012 02:02 Adam4167 wrote:

Let's kill Kurumi.

Kurumi townie.

By the looks at least.
Gotta hope that Adam didn't put false tracks.
Always gotta double check these guys, even if they look townie by this standard.

Two players made cases on the ones on this list I believe to be townie cause of Adam's posts: Katina and ShiaoPi.
I have to assume they didn't make their reads by bothering to read through a dead scum's filter, so I have to guess they're pushing an agenda.

Here's my list:

Twelve - town/mafia 1
BroodKingEXE - town/mafia 1

Hyaach - town/mafia 2
ShiaoPi - town/mafia 2

casualman - town/mafia 3
Katina - town/mafia 3

Kurumi - town
Mattchew - town
Majugarzett - town
austinmcc - town
NSH - town (but probably very experienced, so hard to read.Double check)
Ghost403 - town
Acrofales - town
VE - town
Mandalor - town

This all under the assumption that Adam didn't fake his agenda at the time he wrote the stuff.

town/mafia x represents the pairs of people that probably have opposite alignment and I'm unsure of.

Let's see who scum chose

Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81

Mr. Wiggles Canada. July 06 2012 10:00. Posts 4685

Profile Blog #

Day post going up in a minute, please refrain from posting until then.

"Dulce et decorum est pro Aiur mori" -Zealot | TL Mafia is the best sub-forum around, no lie!

Mr. Wiggles Canada. July 06 2012 10:05. Posts 4685

Profile Blog #

Day 3: Dirty Tricks
[image loading]

austinmcc looked at the Jack-In-The-Box that sat on the small wooden table in front of him. He wasn't quite sure what to make of it. It wasn't his, in any case, and he had never seen it before. When he had come back into his wagon after the performance, the box had been sitting there, a tag hanging from it's handle reading "Play With Me!".

Since then, he had been pacing back and forth across the room trying to decide what to do with it. It was probably just a harmless toy, and that part of austinmcc wanted to turn the handle and giggle when the clown popped out of the box. On the other hand though, niggled a voice in the back of his mind, there had been some dirty tricks played on some of the other performers recently. austinmcc weighed the two options mentally and, making a decision, reached out towards the Jack-In-The-Box.

Meanwhile, outside, two Clowns were leaning against a wagon across the way from austinmcc's while sharing a cigarette. One of them took a long draw from it before passing it to his friend. As he went to grab it, they both heard the loud sound of an explosion from austinmcc's wagon. They looked at each other, grinning widely, and then skipped arm in arm away from the scene, cackling madly as they did so.

austinmcc the Vanilla Townie fell to temptation!

Day 3 begins now! You have roughly 46 hours from this post, until 08:00 KST two days from now to decide the lynch.

"Dulce et decorum est pro Aiur mori" -Zealot | TL Mafia is the best sub-forum around, no lie!

Vivax Italy. July 06 2012 10:07. Posts 3880

Profile Blog #

Nice medic save, but the vigi got roleblocked?

Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81

ShiaoPi Taiwan. July 06 2012 10:07. Posts 1357

Profile #

@Vivax:

yep I was not reading adam's filter, just looking at the way the voteswitch happened.

gg austin, I'm out

VisceraEyes United States. July 06 2012 10:27. Posts 9734

Profile Blog #

On July 06 2012 10:07 Vivax wrote:
Nice medic save, but the vigi got roleblocked?

1) we don't know if there was a medic save or if Austin was double-stacked or what...why do you assume medic save?
2) I don't know why you're expecting a vigi hit tonight specifically, but as far as I know our claimed vig has shot already and I assume that means he's out...but I certainly wasn't expecting a vig shot tonight, so why were you?

Austin put in a lot of time and effort tonight. I'm going to go back over his last few posts carefully - see if there's something there I didn't pick up the first time through. He made a lot of good points though, I'm not surprised by the hit at all.

Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET****

Vivax Italy. July 06 2012 10:35. Posts 3880

Profile Blog #

I think mafia targetted austinmcc and ghost, the vigi, who got saved by a medic.

Additionally, he got roleblocked.

Where I know it from? Looking at the daypost. Just 1 kill. 3 were possible. 2 by mafia ,1 by vigi.

Auctoritas non veritas facit legem 81

VisceraEyes United States. July 06 2012 10:38. Posts 9734

Profile Blog #

On June 13 2012 06:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Lion Tamer (Vigilante): You are a Lion Tamer! After years of training fearsome beasts, you've mastered the ability to direct them to do as you please! Once per game at night, you may let your lions loose on one player and he'll become dinner. Your lions will be refunded if someone else gets to your target first.

On July 04 2012 06:25 ghost_403 wrote:
I didn't vote for BM, I shot him.

Catching up, brb.

Come on and give it to me. Come on and die. ****TL MAFIA LI - NEVER FORGET****

Twelve United States. July 06 2012 10:41. Posts 90

Profile #

Going over Austin's filter.

NoSmurfHere New Zealand. July 06 2012 10:53. Posts 243

Profile #

let's kill 12. Austin made some very good points on him (and most likely the reason Austin was shot was because it was unlikely he was to be medic protected.) He could've been double stacked as well. Also I'm listening to my gut here more than anything since I've been led wrong by sheeping people when I could've done work myself (had I actually been here, of course). That's something that has caused me trouble in past games and yet I'm still doing it. I feel stupid for that.

##vote Twelve

The following statement is true. The previous statement is false.

NoSmurfHere New Zealand. July 06 2012 11:03. Posts 243

Profile #

also: I didn't express it very clearly yesterday or last night, but I think Acro could be an active scum.

Examine his BM interaction on d1 and you'll see that BM and Acro distance each other pretty heavily. BM's reasoning on voting Acro is incredibly strange and their interaction seems very forced.

In addition I was wondering why Acro hardlined against BM so hard, without ever expressing even the tiniest doubt. He could have nailed him as scum 100%, but that type of thing is so unlikely on d1 that I find it rather suspicious in retrospect.

like this post:

On July 01 2012 16:11 Bill Murray wrote:
vig shoot Adam first
because he asked you to shoot
broke the golden rule

it's clear BM wasn't afraid of distancing himself from his buddies. So, it's more than plausible that some of the players that BM interacted with are indeed scum.

Recall this:

On July 01 2012 08:25 Bill Murray wrote:
Acrofales FoS on BKX is fishy as fuck
if BKX flips scum, will you all listen to me on acrofales?
It's a JEEP tell for a FoS with a vote on someone else
Acrofales did that, lets test BKX
##Unvote
##Vote: BKX

finally, derp. Let's kill grush instead of Twelve, since my gut is telling me he's scum too, but I think he's actually more likely than Twelve to flip scum.

##unvote
##vote grush57

The following statement is true. The previous statement is false.