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| Abraxas514 Canada. June 21 2012 12:25. Posts 407 | Profile Blog # |
Let me preface by saying I've played almost 200 hours so far, and that number should be more like 225 hours, because I've spent so much time on the AH.
Yesterday I found a 1150 dps 2hand bow. It had big str and int and a socket. I put it up for 10m and it instasold.
I've been looking at amulets. An OK ammy with 5% CC and 25% CD, 50 int and 50 vit goes for.... 34 million? what?
I've noticed two trends that seem like they are bubbling. The hypothesis I have is as follows: There is a group of DHs that had some 100k DPS (before sharpshooter) that abused the broken class and low death penalty to farm a3/a4 on some 5 million worth of gear. When 1.0.3 hit, they got chopped up, and now were forced to play more like a wizard. The richer ones got really pissed off about how much of a nerf they got, and decided to stop playing. They then realized making money on the AH is much better than actually playing the game.
This is where the bubble begins. People start buying things up and selling them for higher prices. Because the prices keep on going up, people keep on investing, as they see rising prices.
Eventually though, when gold is traded on the RMAH, the value will be pathetically small, everyone undercutting and trying to sell all the gold they have from a game they don't want to play anyway, and then leave.
So far I'm seeing this happen with items with CC and CD, and weapons in general. The supply of weapons is going UP (more and more people farming) and the demand is going DOWN (everyone farming already has a decent main hand). The price of weapons is going to crash HARD, as the prediction goes, and eventually only 1200+ rares with good stats will be the only thing worth more than 10m.
Keep in mind, items have no intrinsic value. They are worth whatever people will pay for them. Once the super rich decide they no longer want to pay for them, or aren't around, the only people left will be regular players with less than 20 million in their accounts.
Does this make sense? Go ahead and poke some holes, I'd like to discuss.Last edit: 2012-06-21 12:28:29 |
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| hkf Australia. June 21 2012 12:30. Posts 322 | Profile Blog # |
Cute theory, except
when gold is traded on the RMAH, the value will be pathetically small
Min price for gold = $12.5/1m since it sells in 100k units at a min price of $1.25/100k. |
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| Abraxas514 Canada. June 21 2012 12:33. Posts 407 | Profile Blog # |
On June 21 2012 12:30 hkf wrote:Cute theory, except Min price for gold = $12.5/1m since it sells in 100k units at a min price of $1.25/100k.
Damn, I just went on but I have 10 auctions so I couldn't try to sell gold.
But why is the min 1.25? Isn't that just for selling items because bliz takes 1$? |
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| hkf Australia. June 21 2012 12:37. Posts 322 | Profile Blog # |
On June 21 2012 12:33 Abraxas514 wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 21 2012 12:30 hkf wrote:Cute theory, except
when gold is traded on the RMAH, the value will be pathetically small
Min price for gold = $12.5/1m since it sells in 100k units at a min price of $1.25/100k.
Damn, I just went on but I have 10 auctions so I couldn't try to sell gold. But why is the min 1.25? Isn't that just for selling items because bliz takes 1$?
Sorry, unit price min is $0.25, making gold $2.5/mil. |
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| udgnim United States. June 21 2012 12:43. Posts 6451 | Profile Blog # |
posted this in the 1.0.3 thread and I think it relates to what you're thinking
I also agree with your prediction
anyone have opinions on how the patch 1.0.3 changes will affect the value of gold?
I think there will be several factors that will cause gold value to start increasing which makes me unsure about actually spending gold on anything expensive
here are the factors that I can think of that will reduce gold supply and increase the value of gold
- inanimate objects no longer have magic/gold find applied to them
- repair fees greatly reduce player gold growth through killing monsters
- 1.0.3 causes a certain % of the player base to play the game less or quit which reduces gold supply
- Blizzard has yet to enable the selling of gold on RMAH preventing an influx of gold from bot accounts to be sold through RMAH
- Blizzard starting to go after bot accounts which reduces gold supply
- gold finding bot methods have been nerfed greatly. they have to basically to kill monsters now to gold farm which requires a more sophisticated bot.
as long as gold is not sellable on RMAH, I think the value of gold will be increasing as time goes by. I have no idea how quickly the market will start adjusting to this though. it might happen pretty quickly since patch 1.0.3 has had a definite effect on reducing Diablo 3 player base.
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| KimJongChill United States. June 21 2012 12:49. Posts 6424 | Profile # |
On June 21 2012 12:30 hkf wrote:Cute theory, except Min price for gold = $12.5/1m since it sells in 100k units at a min price of $1.25/100k.
this is wrong. |
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| hkf Australia. June 21 2012 12:51. Posts 322 | Profile Blog # |
On June 21 2012 12:49 KimJongChill wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 21 2012 12:30 hkf wrote:Cute theory, except
when gold is traded on the RMAH, the value will be pathetically small
Min price for gold = $12.5/1m since it sells in 100k units at a min price of $1.25/100k.
this is wrong.
I corrected it one post below. |
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| Abraxas514 Canada. June 21 2012 12:53. Posts 407 | Profile Blog # |
On June 21 2012 12:43 udgnim wrote:posted this in the 1.0.3 thread and I think it relates to what you're thinking I also agree with your prediction
Show nested quote +anyone have opinions on how the patch 1.0.3 changes will affect the value of gold?
I think there will be several factors that will cause gold value to start increasing which makes me unsure about actually spending gold on anything expensive
here are the factors that I can think of that will reduce gold supply and increase the value of gold
- inanimate objects no longer have magic/gold find applied to them
- repair fees greatly reduce player gold growth through killing monsters
- 1.0.3 causes a certain % of the player base to play the game less or quit which reduces gold supply
- Blizzard has yet to enable the selling of gold on RMAH preventing an influx of gold from bot accounts to be sold through RMAH
- Blizzard starting to go after bot accounts which reduces gold supply
- gold finding bot methods have been nerfed greatly. they have to basically to kill monsters now to gold farm which requires a more sophisticated bot.
as long as gold is not sellable on RMAH, I think the value of gold will be increasing as time goes by. I have no idea how quickly the market will start adjusting to this though. it might happen pretty quickly since patch 1.0.3 has had a definite effect on reducing Diablo 3 player base.
Interesting,
Point 1 and 2 I agree with.
Point 3, if people leave, it reduces gold supply but also reduces demand for top tier items, while casuals are still playing nightmare and hell and are still buying items. Not sure about that one.
Point 4 is a key part of the issue, as I'm almost certain gold will be sold at the lowest possible amount (25c per 100k?) and also fairly certain it will go very quickly seeing as people see the huge inflated prices and go ahead and buy tons of gold.
Point 5 is a bit irrelevant because gold bot accounts weren't using the GAH yet, just farming up gold to sell on the RMAH.
Point 6 actually shows deflation because now you have a greater supply of items, and a greater need for gold, so people will sell for cheaper.
Don't forget that if items are getting ^ expensive, gold value is going V.
But all this will be old news once legendaries get their much-needed buff, and rares will no longer be worth as much.
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| Ownos United States. June 27 2012 00:37. Posts 2144 | Profile # |
FYI. "Buy low and selling high" is called speculation and not investment.
And yeah these kinds of things eventually burst. It's a game of money hot potatoe. Who ever isn't able to sell the item for profit last is fucked. I would just wait till prices go down. I'm in no hurry to "complete" the game. |
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| Skyro United States. June 27 2012 01:10. Posts 1414 | Profile # |
I've noticed two trends that seem like they are bubbling. The hypothesis I have is as follows: There is a group of DHs that had some 100k DPS (before sharpshooter) that abused the broken class and low death penalty to farm a3/a4 on some 5 million worth of gear. When 1.0.3 hit, they got chopped up, and now were forced to play more like a wizard. The richer ones got really pissed off about how much of a nerf they got, and decided to stop playing. They then realized making money on the AH is much better than actually playing the game.
From my experiences the vast majority of people who quit cashed out first. Cash out = no gold to play around with. I would venture to say that even if they did have gold to play around with majority of people out there would not find playing the AH in the way your describe to be all that beneficial (or all that much fun since they are no longer invested in the game at all) to them because:
1) RMAH has a max list price of 250, effectively capping the profit from any single item sold on RMAH and thus forcing players to use the GAH for items worth over $250
2) Since gold is worthless for these players who quit, they get taxed twice by selling on the GAH and then on the RMAH
3) The added danger of gold depreciation (this is similar to investing in foreign securities, where you have exchange rate risk, except in the real world you can hedge this risk with futures but there are no such offsetting positions in the diablo economy)
This is where the bubble begins. People start buying things up and selling them for higher prices. Because the prices keep on going up, people keep on investing, as they see rising prices.
Eventually though, when gold is traded on the RMAH, the value will be pathetically small, everyone undercutting and trying to sell all the gold they have from a game they don't want to play anyway, and then leave.
So far I'm seeing this happen with items with CC and CD, and weapons in general. The supply of weapons is going UP (more and more people farming) and the demand is going DOWN (everyone farming already has a decent main hand). The price of weapons is going to crash HARD, as the prediction goes, and eventually only 1200+ rares with good stats will be the only thing worth more than 10m.
The value of gold has depreciated quite a bit since release, and has affected ALL prices, not just weapons. Weapons (and jewelry) have always been high demand items where prices can fluctuate a lot.
Keep in mind, items have no intrinsic value. They are worth whatever people will pay for them. Once the super rich decide they no longer want to pay for them, or aren't around, the only people left will be regular players with less than 20 million in their accounts.
Does this make sense? Go ahead and poke some holes, I'd like to discuss.
Sure items have no intrinsic value, but that is simply theoretical. The diablo 2 economy showed in a non-structured economy items were the only thing that actually retained value. Also I have no idea where you get this idea of the "super rich" and why they will have such a dramatic effect on the economy. They are a small subset of the population which will not make the entire diablo economy implode, nor will they all simultaneously stop playing at the same time or whatever you are suggesting here.Last edit: 2012-06-27 01:11:34 |
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| B.I.G. June 27 2012 03:55. Posts 2046 | Profile # |
| I just hope prices will be going down sometime soon because some of those prices are just fucking retarded.. |
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| scDeluX Canada. June 27 2012 03:58. Posts 1246 | Profile Blog # |
On June 27 2012 03:55 B.I.G. wrote:
I just hope prices will be going down sometime soon because some of those prices are just fucking retarded..
I won't bet on that in the next few months...
Legendary reworking + PvP is going to generate alot of demands on rmah items.Last edit: 2012-06-27 03:58:20 |
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| FairForever Canada. June 27 2012 04:41. Posts 2186 | Profile # |
There is no "perfect" item in D3 as there is in D2 - well, technically there is, but it's virtually impossible to get (even moreso than D2 standards). Most likely you would need either...
A rare rolling perfect amounts
(eg. gloves with MAX dex/vit/all resist/crit chance/crit dmg/ias)
Or a max roll legendary with perfect other stats
(eg. stormshield 32% block max res max vit max life% or something like that)
Any item that is endgame-bound is just going to inflate as more gold gets pushed into the market. That includes the highest dps weapons, near-perfect rolls, etc.
Any item that is an intermediary product is going to deflate (either nominally or in real terms), but still does have value (for example, i have some intermediary items that are necessary to help me farm in Act 3). These items have value because they will help generate additional gold at a rate faster than their value diminishes. For example, I spent 8m on a ring recently, but the additional 8k dps it provided to me was more than worth it in speeding up my runs and preventing deaths. |
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| BeMannerDuPenner Germany. June 27 2012 04:56. Posts 5146 | Profile Blog # |
On June 27 2012 03:58 scDeluX wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 27 2012 03:55 B.I.G. wrote:
I just hope prices will be going down sometime soon because some of those prices are just fucking retarded..
I won't bet on that in the next few months... Legendary reworking + PvP is going to generate alot of demands on rmah items.
depending on which stats are preferred for pvp (allres beeing important or not , cc reduction beeing good or not etc) ton of things will skyrocket |
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| rezoacken Canada. June 27 2012 05:13. Posts 1445 | Profile # |
On June 21 2012 12:37 hkf wrote:
Show nested quote +On June 21 2012 12:33 Abraxas514 wrote:
On June 21 2012 12:30 hkf wrote:Cute theory, except
when gold is traded on the RMAH, the value will be pathetically small
Min price for gold = $12.5/1m since it sells in 100k units at a min price of $1.25/100k.
Damn, I just went on but I have 10 auctions so I couldn't try to sell gold. But why is the min 1.25? Isn't that just for selling items because bliz takes 1$?
Sorry, unit price min is $0.25, making gold $2.5/mil.
Wasnt the min price for the whole sale in Beta ? And not by unit.
I mean isn't it:
-You can sell gold as low as possible but the whole sale of your lot must exceed min price ? |
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| noD June 28 2012 11:23. Posts 2120 | Profile Blog # |
I think u r 50% right
the thing is people seem to be boting like crazy so the so-so itens are dirty cheap and the near perfect ones can be sold expensive coz those botters have millions .... |
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| Itsmedudeman United States. June 28 2012 13:46. Posts 8515 | Profile Blog # |
| Umm well, that's happened since the beginning of the game... 600 DPS weapons used to be millions of gold, but now they're worthless. More and more rich people = high end items get pricier, but because of too many items being farmed the mid tier and low tier items get cheaper and cheaper. |
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| JustPassingBy June 28 2012 18:04. Posts 6266 | Profile Blog # |
On June 27 2012 04:41 FairForever wrote:
Any item that is endgame-bound is just going to inflate as more gold gets pushed into the market. That includes the highest dps weapons, near-perfect rolls, etc.
But gold also flows out of the system, through the 15% fee using the AH, and people doing excessive crafting.
(Good) items and gems on the other hand, won't vanish. |
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| S_SienZ June 28 2012 18:19. Posts 1797 | Profile # |
| People won't give a crap about Blizzard's auction house min / max prices. It will be decided by gold selling sites / independent high leveled players who sell. |
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| pedduck Thailand. June 28 2012 18:38. Posts 418 | Profile Blog # |
| Umm. I know both item and gold are inflating. Gold and item drop from mob everyday but which one has its value decrease faster? For me I still think the item will have their value decrease faster which mean the same amount of gold should be able to buy better item in the future. However, if you divided the market in to low-mid-high-end item, there is a chance that high-end item will get more expensive in the short to mid term due to majority of demand(player) is moving toward act3/4. |
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