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Newbie Mini Mafia XIX - Page 17

Forum Index > TL Mafia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 All
  JingleHell   United States. July 01 2012 02:24. Posts 11262Profile Blog # 

On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following:

WORST CASE SCENARIO
No Lynch Day1
+ Show Spoiler +

(Mis)Lynch Day1
+ Show Spoiler +

Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse.



Show nested quote +



WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU??


Your math requires that we have no new reads to work with based off the mislynch and D2 discussion, and are forced to randomly lynch on D2.

If we avoid a crapshoot on the D2 vote, we have better odds of winning a vote with scum being a smaller percentage of the population.
http://jinglehelltech.blogspot.com -- Pics of my rig in Profile
Old Post

 
 Hopeless1der   Canada. July 01 2012 02:24. Posts 2222
Profile Blog # 
EBWOP: I'm concerned the math is technically wrong, but the conclusions would be the same if I had done it correctly
Old Post

  JingleHell   United States. July 01 2012 02:25. Posts 11262Profile Blog # 
The conclusions are erroneous no matter the technicalities. Having the scum be a smaller overall percentage of the population is good for a vote based on actual reads, which is the only thing that has a good chance of winning. By the time we have even odds of a "random" vote getting scum, they've already won.
http://jinglehelltech.blogspot.com -- Pics of my rig in Profile
Old Post

  JingleHell   United States. July 01 2012 02:27. Posts 11262Profile Blog # 
By the way, I'm going to drop my son off with my mom, and then I'm going to be meeting a fellow Liquidian who's temporarily in town for lunch. I may or may not be back before the deadline. Much love. BANS FOR THE BANGOD.
http://jinglehelltech.blogspot.com -- Pics of my rig in Profile
Old Post

  Myles   United States. July 01 2012 02:29. Posts 4088Profile Blog # 

On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
Myles: You're right to a certain extent. I was looking at your and Monk's contributions specifically because you were the only two not to have cast a vote. However, just because two players have the same post count doesn't mean they're making the same contribution. The vast majority of your posts so far have been filler that haven't added in any meaningful way to the conversation. For the record, I don't have a scummy read on you, I just feel like you could be contributing more with your posting.

JH: Less nuttiness, and more posts like that, please! I for one am persuaded. I still have a scummy read on Anacletus, but actively arguing in favor of a mislynch over no lynch at all is far scummier play than he's demonstrated so far.

##Unvote Anacletus
##Vote Hopeless1der

My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch.

Nearly all of my posts have been about policy or reads, or a question about policy. I still don't see how the are non-contributing. I still wonder why Bob is flying so low below the radar when he's posted nothing expect to bandwagon on Anacletusm, which everyone seemed to ignore.
Old Post

 
 Hopeless1der   Canada. July 01 2012 02:30. Posts 2222
Profile Blog # 
The point is that No Lynch is bad from a statistical standpoint. Unless I know I'm lynching a crucial blue role (which I don't), the best course of action is lynch someone. Your case is based on me intentionally mislynching. In the absence of any other information, it is the best we can do. If my Best-Worst case is grounds for suspicion, so be it.
Old Post

 
 Dark.EX   United States. July 01 2012 02:42. Posts 1504
Profile Blog # 
OK, guys. It's time for me to contribute, as well. An analysis on Promethelax:

Early on, he has been very suspicious of Anacletus, as shown be these spoilered posts: + Show Spoiler +This one is special, as it contains a very juicy piece of information:

On June 29 2012 12:56 Promethelax wrote:

Show nested quote +



You also said that you had eight pages of notes and profiles on people. While I didn't think that the length of your notes or strength of your reads were what you said they were I assumed that you wouldn't just play around so much. I don't like those posts or the one where you insinuate that scum doesn't post early. I particularly don't like that you lied about how many of these posts you've made.

You have played before, that gives you an edge over most of us. We need to work together to find scum, if you are town give us your reads. More information is better for us. What do you think of JingleHell or anybody else, give us a first impression or a gut feeling at least, you must have some thoughts.
These posts suggests Promethlax is town. I would like to draw attention to the bolded and underlined line, as since Anacletus has played before, we can take notes on his role in his previous game and how he posted in that one in contrast to this game.

His next notable post is directed at me as to make me look like scum, which I did. Spoilered as to take up less space: + Show Spoiler +It was pointed out that this post was made just as Anacletus had 6 votes to be lynched by Intact, here:

On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus.
However, his reasoning does not make sense when Promethelax was initially suspicious of Anacletus in the first place. Along with this post which is spoilered as it is very long: + Show Spoiler +Along with this post:

On June 30 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote:
Well this is obnoxious, I think Anaacletus is scummy but I think Fencer is more scummy, however I will be at work when the voting ends and this is my last minute in this thread for this day cycle, since I think a no lynch is really bad for us I am going to switch my vote to Anacletus, I hope that if he flips town you all will look at my Fencer case, he really does look more scummy to me.

I'm putting the hammer on Anacletus because we need a lynch and I won't be here to convince people that we should get Fencer, I would leave my vote on Fencer if I thought I could make the rest of you realize that he is scum but since you seem to want to go for the second reddest person I will do that as well to ensure a lynch.

I hope that if we are wrong and Anacletus is town you will all take a second look at my case on Fencer, if Anacletus is town Fencer is even more likely to be scum.

@Intact: If Anacletus flips scum and you feel the need to go after me I can't stop you, you should go after Fencer but if you don't do that you should go after him on day three after I flip green (all this assuming I live through the next two nights which I probably won't without medic protection).

##Unvote: Fencer710
##Vote: Anacletus

Is there any way to make sure I don't have to do this in the future since I won't be around for the voting deadline? i.e. would it be possible to PM one of you to say my preferences in terms of my vote. That a lynch is better than a no lynch and a lynch on Fenccer is better than a lynch on Anacletus and so on. I want my vote to count but I also have to make it about 12 hours before the deadline which really messes with me, thanks.
All of this suggests that he is town, as he was suspicious/believed Anacletus was scum from the start.

All in all, Promethelax appears to be 100% innocent, but while digging I found that Intact is very suspicious. He has made 8 posts since the game began, all with very few lines, a paragraph at best. A few gems:



On June 29 2012 23:28 Intact wrote:
##Vote Analectus

Bandwagon without any explanation.



On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote:
In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies.
This makes me extremely suspicious that Anacletus is not mafia, as regardless if he is mafia or town, it wouldn't make it nearly as easy as he suggests, and it supports the notion of lynching him without actually saying anything.

This isn't enough to change my vote yet, but FoS on Intact.

Also, link to the mafia game Anacletus played in before: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707
Old Post

 
 BobTheLob   Canada. July 01 2012 02:44. Posts 360
Profile Blog # 
Just as a small defence for myself, I never post much and rarely post more than a few lines, it's just how I post as for bandwagoning... I'm new I have next to no idea what I'm doing and despite having read up on all of the resources still am a bit lost. As for reads, I just have a feeling about Anacletus, but whether or not he's scum I have no idea the same with Fencer.

I didn't post earlier because I just woke up and last night I was playing a game of Civ IV with my friends :D
BobTheLob Lurker extraordinaire
Old Post

 
 AmericanUmlaut   Germany. July 01 2012 03:40. Posts 2255
Profile # 

On July 01 2012 02:12 JingleHell wrote:

Show nested quote +



You just agreed with my reasoning against Hopeless1der because of the underlined text, and then said the bolded.

Bandwagoning on my read, with a huge, glaring inconsistency, with the threat of further bandwagoning. You're still on my scum radar.

You're misconstruing my post. An intentional mislynch is worse than no lynch at all, and arguing otherwise is scummy play, but I don't think that lynching Anacletus is likely to be a mislynch. Regardless, I found your analysis of Hopeless1der persuasive. If I have a scum read on two players, but have a stronger feeling on one than the other, then the logical play is to vote for the one who I feel has the greater chance of being mafia. I have done so. Given that I still feel that Anacletus has a reasonable chance of flipping red, lynching him is still preferable to lynching no one at all, and I'll switch my vote accordingly if the night is otherwise likely to end in a no-lynch.
The frumious Bandersnatch
Old Post

 
 AmericanUmlaut   Germany. July 01 2012 03:43. Posts 2255
Profile # 

On July 01 2012 02:44 BobTheLob wrote:
Just as a small defence for myself, I never post much and rarely post more than a few lines, it's just how I post as for bandwagoning... I'm new I have next to no idea what I'm doing and despite having read up on all of the resources still am a bit lost. As for reads, I just have a feeling about Anacletus, but whether or not he's scum I have no idea the same with Fencer.

I didn't post earlier because I just woke up and last night I was playing a game of Civ IV with my friends :D

This is the last time I want to see this as an argument from anyone. This is a newbie game; none of us is a veteran player. And it doesn't matter. Failing to contribute is failing to contribute, regardless of your experience level. If you're town, we need you joining in on the discussion so that we have the information we need to establish that you're on our side.
The frumious Bandersnatch
Old Post

 
 BobTheLob   Canada. July 01 2012 03:53. Posts 360
Profile Blog # 

On July 01 2012 03:43 AmericanUmlaut wrote:

Show nested quote +


This is the last time I want to see this as an argument from anyone. This is a newbie game; none of us is a veteran player. And it doesn't matter. Failing to contribute is failing to contribute, regardless of your experience level. If you're town, we need you joining in on the discussion so that we have the information we need to establish that you're on our side.



Okay dude. Sorry but some people in here have played before maybe not TL mafia but other versions. I've played absolutely nothing similar.

Note: okay dude is not meant to be condescending or anything like that sorry if it comes across that way.
BobTheLob Lurker extraordinaire
Old Post

  Myles   United States. July 01 2012 03:53. Posts 4088Profile Blog # 
OK, considering we have just over 3 hours left, I'm going to cast my vote for Anacletus. After barely contributing, then barely defending himself, he's pretty much disappeared completely. While not the most damning of evidence, it certainly seems scummy to me since a good way to draw attention from yourself is to lay low and let other people take heat - you know, out of sight out of mind.

Fencer is suspicious, but after looking through all his posts some more, seems more newbish than scum. I'm certainly not going to turn a blind eye, but I'll give him the BotD for now.

And despite other people not seeming to care, BobTheLob is quite suspicious to me. Lurker extraordinaire and his last post doesn't elicit much confidence imo.

##Vote Analectus
Old Post

 
 AmericanUmlaut   Germany. July 01 2012 03:57. Posts 2255
Profile # 

On July 01 2012 03:53 BobTheLob wrote:

Show nested quote +




Okay dude. Sorry but some people in here have played before maybe not TL mafia but other versions. I've played absolutely nothing similar.

Note: okay dude is not meant to be condescending or anything like that sorry if it comes across that way.

I didn't take it bad . Sorry if my own post came across as unfriendly, I just want people to play and do their best, and I don't want us to fall into the habit of accepting "I'm just new" as an excuse for bad play, because it's a really convenient excuse to try and cover up a scumslip.
The frumious Bandersnatch
Old Post

 
 AmericanUmlaut   Germany. July 01 2012 03:58. Posts 2255
Profile # 

On July 01 2012 03:53 Myles wrote:
OK, considering we have just over 3 hours left, I'm going to cast my vote for Anacletus. After barely contributing, then barely defending himself, he's pretty much disappeared completely. While not the most damning of evidence, it certainly seems scummy to me since a good way to draw attention from yourself is to lay low and let other people take heat - you know, out of sight out of mind.

Fencer is suspicious, but after looking through all his posts some more, seems more newbish than scum. I'm certainly not going to turn a blind eye, but I'll give him the BotD for now.

And despite other people not seeming to care, BobTheLob is quite suspicious to me. Lurker extraordinaire and his last post doesn't elicit much confidence imo.

##Vote Analectus

What is your opinion on JH's read on hopeless1der? Why do you feel that Anacletus is a scummier read?
The frumious Bandersnatch
Old Post

 
 ghost_403   United States. July 01 2012 04:05. Posts 1753
Profile # 
Day 1 Vote Count:

Anacletus (7): BLinD-RawR, BobTheLob, Fencer710, Intact, iamperfection, Myles, Promethelax
Intact (1): Anacletus
Fencer710 (1): Hopeless1der
Hopeless1der (2): AmericanUmlaut, JingleHell

Not Voted: NRGmonk

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Currently, Anacletus is set to be lynched Day 1. Two hours remain!
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Old Post

  Myles   United States. July 01 2012 04:05. Posts 4088Profile Blog # 

On July 01 2012 03:58 AmericanUmlaut wrote:

Show nested quote +


What is your opinion on JH's read on hopeless1der? Why do you feel that Anacletus is a scummier read?

I was suspicious of JH at first because of the seemingly chaotic way he accusing people deciding policy, but I agree now that it was just to get people talking so we could go somewhere rather than seriously accusing people.

Hopeless seems like he's trying to make the best decision with the information we have. I agree that lynching just for information is bad if we have nothing else to go on, but given that we have a couple suspects, we should definitely be lynching one of them since relying on scum to slip up and make it obvious seems very unlikely at this point.
Old Post

  Anacletus   United States. July 01 2012 04:18. Posts 670Profile Blog # 

On July 01 2012 03:53 Myles wrote:
OK, considering we have just over 3 hours left, I'm going to cast my vote for Anacletus. After barely contributing, then barely defending himself, he's pretty much disappeared completely. While not the most damning of evidence, it certainly seems scummy to me since a good way to draw attention from yourself is to lay low and let other people take heat - you know, out of sight out of mind.

Fencer is suspicious, but after looking through all his posts some more, seems more newbish than scum. I'm certainly not going to turn a blind eye, but I'll give him the BotD for now.

And despite other people not seeming to care, BobTheLob is quite suspicious to me. Lurker extraordinaire and his last post doesn't elicit much confidence imo.

##Vote Analectus


Are you kidding me? I've given my reads more so than most of the people in this game. There isn't much way to defend myself this early on other than to say I'm not scum and hanging me will be a huge miss step by the town.

http://talk-to-stimey-please.1324083.n2.nabble.com/
Old Post

  Anacletus   United States. July 01 2012 04:20. Posts 670Profile Blog # 
Also, why would you hang someone on their birthday? That's just wrong!
http://talk-to-stimey-please.1324083.n2.nabble.com/
Old Post

 
 iamperfection   United States. July 01 2012 04:34. Posts 4785
Profile Blog # 
Since it states in the rules that you have to vote for arguments sake:

What happens if you dont vote in time?
If everyone votes does the time limt still have to be reaches or do we immediatly have to enter the next stage?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Old Post

 
 ghost_403   United States. July 01 2012 04:39. Posts 1753
Profile # 
Non voters will be replaced/modkilled. The day will still end at 1700 EST[local].
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Old Post

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