| Toadesstern Germany. July 07 2012 08:35. Posts 6103 | Profile # |
On July 07 2012 08:28 talismania wrote:
Show nested quote +On July 07 2012 08:17 kingdedede wrote:
Everything interesting we've already shared in thread. It was mostly Acro playing as I focussed on my MTG game. That's why most of the talk was about MTG, where Acro just checked things that he wanted to post with me in skype. Our exchanges went something like:
[5-7-2012 00:40:38] Acro: how about:
[5-7-2012 00:40:40] Acro: <quote of anagram>
This is an anagram for bus cephiro risen.
That's exactly what we did. I guess we got lucky with our guess. The idea behind it was that scum would want to get rid of any extra town KP as fast as possible and my strongest town read on a (semi-)confirmed KP player was Cephiro.
We thought of driving ourselves (we were also afraid of iGrok picking us up), but figured the risk to Cephiro was probably bigger. At least for the hit we were right...
The earlier thought was to move any damage on a town player to a scummy player, but our strongest scum reads were at risk of getting shot themselves:
1. We still don't like Tali. Grush has also voiced his dislike of Tali. Grush has KP and might've shot Tali.
2. Grush is a similar story. He has lurked and even a lynch hasn't gotten him to do anything useful. We want to see who he shoots. However, a bus was not really an option, because iGrok has said he thinks Grush is scum and he might want to pick up Grush. Swapping a mob hit for a donkey kong right, seemed like a really bad idea. Als night and having a town read donkey konged seemed like a bad idea
3. iGrok also couldn't be swapped for the same reason as Tali.
I'm still pretty null on Saturn and Risen, but have a townie read on HRB. I just followed SnB's advice to swap Cephiro with the player least likely to take damage. I also kinda liked that Risen had 3 stock, so was not in any immediate danger.
[5-7-2012 00:41:30] Artanis: hm
[5-7-2012 00:41:53] Artanis: sure
[5-7-2012 00:42:12] Artanis: Sounds okay
Unless you want a few more posts like this there's not much I can give you.
Yeah, as much as possible please. We need to do as much as possible to maybe confirm that you're town.
THAT'S GETTING A LITTLE TOO MUCH...
YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO FIGURE SOMEONE OUT BY OUT OF THREAD INFORMATION. IT IS ALLOWED TO POST THE INFORMATION WHEN BEING ASKED FOR A SPECIFIC REASON (YOU WANTED TO KNOW WETHER OR NOT SUCH A QT EXISTED) BUT THIS IS GOING THE WRONG WAY...
YEAH I KNOW I SAID IT'S OKAY AS LONG AS YOU ONLY POST THE TEXT BUT IF THIS GETS TO BE A "ALL HYDRAS POST EVERYTHING FOR THE SAKE OF FIGURING PEOPLE OUT" I HAVE TO REVISE THIS. NO POSTING ABOUT SUCH THINGS MORE THAN WAS ALREADY POSTED |
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| kingdedede Kazakhstan. July 07 2012 08:39. Posts 80 | Profile # |
| I'm not going to spend an hour editing the log as 1. I could do the exact same thing as scum and 2. It's incredibly boring stuff to do. If you don't believe I'm town from my filter then you just haven't been paying much attention. |
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 07 2012 08:41. Posts 155 | Profile # |
All aboard the shoot talismania train. Choo-Choo!
But man, I'm just going with what I see here. talismania - scum. grush - dunno lol. HrB - town. Cephiro-scummy. dedede - only reason I'm even considering possibility of scum is because of how capable they are and because of the style vibe I got in the beginning.
- Hiro |
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| HomerunBat Oman. July 07 2012 09:06. Posts 114 | Profile # |
look at it like this. if dedede is scum, then he has to have a partner. It's not me and it's not you Saturn.
if its grush: he started the bandwagon on day 2 on him in the first place, without the last minute intervention he'd be dead. could have been a pro bus, but unlikely
if it's cephiro: he would be in favor of the tali lynch, instead he called us a derp town and walked away. possible, but still unlikely
if it's tali: he was the first to vote for him on day 1, and as a result, tali was in pretty serious danger of being lynched.
this is outside of the fact that his filter is green as hell. |
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 07 2012 09:14. Posts 155 | Profile # |
On July 07 2012 09:06 HomerunBat wrote:
look at it like this. if dedede is scum, then he has to have a partner. It's not me and it's not you Saturn.
if its grush: he started the bandwagon on day 2 on him in the first place, without the last minute intervention he'd be dead. could have been a pro bus, but unlikely
if it's cephiro: he would be in favor of the tali lynch, instead he called us a derp town and walked away. possible, but still unlikely
if it's tali: he was the first to vote for him on day 1, and as a result, tali was in pretty serious danger of being lynched.
this is outside of the fact that his filter is green as hell.
I really hate thinking about connections so much. Like I never ever try to think about them unless it's absolutely necessary (have dead scum and looking for their partners who I'm unsure on).
But this game is practically forcing me to do it since I can't see the flips of the people who get lynched.
The stuff you said doesn't really make me think that dedede is scum. From the way he's played he's town, and the connections you've shown also suggest he's town, right? So town.
I'm going to shoot talismania (I feel like I've said this so many times, lol). I have a scum read on him and scum are perfectly capable of trying to pull a last-second ploy. They play to their wincons too.
- Hiro |
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 07 2012 09:19. Posts 155 | Profile # |
Also, I'm not going to consider the private conversation stuff. Toad has already made his opinion on it clear and I know that if I was a host or a mafia player, I would consider it playing against the spirit of the rules/game.
- Hiro |
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| talismania United States. July 07 2012 09:20. Posts 2364 | Profile Blog # |
hmm pretty sure that artanis just whined to toad that we were forcing him to post incriminating stuff. whatever. The thing he posted actually looks just like what scum do when they're working on what a post looks like. None of the other pairs have done that as I can see. I can't imagine he doesn't have some bits of convo about "what do you think about talismania? I think he's town now actually" blahblahblah but, again, whatever.
If hiro is truly shooting me and it actually turns out to be dedede and cephiro then gg. I can't argue with the fact that dedede has an incredibly town filter. |
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| talismania United States. July 07 2012 09:21. Posts 2364 | Profile Blog # |
On July 07 2012 08:35 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +On July 07 2012 08:28 talismania wrote:
On July 07 2012 08:17 kingdedede wrote:
Everything interesting we've already shared in thread. It was mostly Acro playing as I focussed on my MTG game. That's why most of the talk was about MTG, where Acro just checked things that he wanted to post with me in skype. Our exchanges went something like:
[5-7-2012 00:40:38] Acro: how about:
[5-7-2012 00:40:40] Acro: <quote of anagram>
This is an anagram for bus cephiro risen.
That's exactly what we did. I guess we got lucky with our guess. The idea behind it was that scum would want to get rid of any extra town KP as fast as possible and my strongest town read on a (semi-)confirmed KP player was Cephiro.
We thought of driving ourselves (we were also afraid of iGrok picking us up), but figured the risk to Cephiro was probably bigger. At least for the hit we were right...
The earlier thought was to move any damage on a town player to a scummy player, but our strongest scum reads were at risk of getting shot themselves:
1. We still don't like Tali. Grush has also voiced his dislike of Tali. Grush has KP and might've shot Tali.
2. Grush is a similar story. He has lurked and even a lynch hasn't gotten him to do anything useful. We want to see who he shoots. However, a bus was not really an option, because iGrok has said he thinks Grush is scum and he might want to pick up Grush. Swapping a mob hit for a donkey kong right, seemed like a really bad idea. Als night and having a town read donkey konged seemed like a bad idea
3. iGrok also couldn't be swapped for the same reason as Tali.
I'm still pretty null on Saturn and Risen, but have a townie read on HRB. I just followed SnB's advice to swap Cephiro with the player least likely to take damage. I also kinda liked that Risen had 3 stock, so was not in any immediate danger.
[5-7-2012 00:41:30] Artanis: hm
[5-7-2012 00:41:53] Artanis: sure
[5-7-2012 00:42:12] Artanis: Sounds okay
Unless you want a few more posts like this there's not much I can give you.
Yeah, as much as possible please. We need to do as much as possible to maybe confirm that you're town.
YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO FIGURE SOMEONE OUT BY OUT OF THREAD INFORMATION. IT IS ALLOWED TO POST THE INFORMATION WHEN BEING ASKED FOR A SPECIFIC REASON (YOU WANTED TO KNOW WETHER OR NOT SUCH A QT EXISTED) BUT THIS IS GOING THE WRONG WAY...
YEAH I KNOW I SAID IT'S OKAY AS LONG AS YOU ONLY POST THE TEXT BUT IF THIS GETS TO BE A "ALL HYDRAS POST EVERYTHING FOR THE SAKE OF FIGURING PEOPLE OUT" I HAVE TO REVISE THIS. NO POSTING ABOUT SUCH THINGS MORE THAN WAS ALREADY POSTED
toad you gotta know that when I'm involved I'm trying to break the game in my favor =P |
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| HomerunBat Oman. July 07 2012 09:24. Posts 114 | Profile # |
I am 100% in favor of the tali shot.
I read town on Saturn (eventually) and dedede without those qts. They are not needed. |
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| kingdedede Kazakhstan. July 07 2012 09:24. Posts 80 | Profile # |
| I didn't send any message, if I did I don't think I would post about how I'm not going to say anything about it 4 minutes after he made that post. I didn't see it when I posted my own. |
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| HomerunBat Oman. July 07 2012 11:07. Posts 114 | Profile # |
| I don't think you will grush, but don't forget about your second FALCON PAWNCH |
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| talismania United States. July 07 2012 13:04. Posts 2364 | Profile Blog # |
dedede you need to post to say who you think my partner is since you voted for me. It pretty much has to be cephiro - did you even think about that before you voted? Who else do you think it could be?
Hiropro, please consider shooting one of cephiro/acrofales tonight instead of me (lol as if). You can always get me lynched tomorrow.
Based on the intra-hydra talk (I ain't ignoring that shit you're all dumb for ignoring any evidence) honestly artanis+acro look the worst. I'm going to switch my carry onto cephiro I guess since it seems like the only thing I can do to convince you guys I'm not scum with him. Hiro I guess that should make your life a lot easier but again please consider just shooting cephiro.
That means, [b]grush[b] if you want to hit cephiro again without worrying about the bus driver you can shoot me. Or you can just shoot cephiro. either way.
____________________
Top lessons from this mafia game:
1) Never brag that when you're town, you're so town everyone knows. Apparently that's not always true.
2) When you're town (this goes for everyone in this game) always always always doubt yourself, particularly if you find yourself tunneling the same person for a long time.
Assuming I won't be alive tomorrow. It's been fun playing with you! |
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 07 2012 13:26. Posts 155 | Profile # |
On July 07 2012 13:04 talismania wrote:
dedede you need to post to say who you think my partner is since you voted for me. It pretty much has to be cephiro - did you even think about that before you voted? Who else do you think it could be?
Hiropro, please consider shooting one of cephiro/acrofales tonight instead of me (lol as if). You can always get me lynched tomorrow.
Based on the intra-hydra talk (I ain't ignoring that shit you're all dumb for ignoring any evidence) honestly artanis+acro look the worst. I'm going to switch my carry onto cephiro I guess since it seems like the only thing I can do to convince you guys I'm not scum with him. Hiro I guess that should make your life a lot easier but again please consider just shooting cephiro.
That means, [b]grush[b] if you want to hit cephiro again without worrying about the bus driver you can shoot me. Or you can just shoot cephiro. either way.
____________________
Top lessons from this mafia game:
1) Never brag that when you're town, you're so town everyone knows. Apparently that's not always true.
2) When you're town (this goes for everyone in this game) always always always doubt yourself, particularly if you find yourself tunneling the same person for a long time.
Assuming I won't be alive tomorrow. It's been fun playing with you!
I don't know why I keep posting in this thread, since I'm either pointlessly confirming my correctness or proving even more how wrong and dumb I've been this game. But it's not like I'm even reading any filters or anything at this point, so I might as well do five minutes of speculation.
The fact that you think carrying Cephiro is the way to go just makes me go, lol what? If you were town you would realize at this point that dedede+grush is the most plausible scum team.
grush+cephiro is so unlikely: no scum team would put 2 KP on their own player when they've already lost 1.5 stock on the other one. Not to mention the fact that it ensures grush has to be bussed.
Cephiro+dedede simply has no reason to change the lynch from grush to talismania. You would almost certainly be the lynch right after that and that's even assuming that town doesn't just lose after night, considering that scum has a bus driver to redirect my shot and 2.5 KP of their own....
Dedede+grush at least explains how grush managed to coordinate with the mafia shot, gives a reason for dedede to switch votes, and it's possible dedede just wanted to bus grush and ride by themselves to victory.
But instead you pick the person who HomerunBat and I believe to be your partner. Not the people who are most likely to be scum themselves (given the information that you would have as town), but the person who others are calling as your partner. Also, the fact that you are now treating grush as town is incredibly hilarious. If anything, this only further solidifies my belief that you are scum.
- Hiro |
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| talismania United States. July 07 2012 13:46. Posts 2364 | Profile Blog # |
dunno why I keep wanting to post too, but you're wrong about cephiro + dedede having no reason to change the lynch.
If it's a no-lynch, they can't win right away. They'd have 2.5 kp and could only kill one townie (grush or you in this scenario) with it.
But by switching the lynch to me, they can win by using their 1 kp on grush and their 1.5 kp on me (which you would be acting as insurance on) and therefore get rid of two townies.
Anyway hiro
When you're town (this goes for everyone in this game) always always always doubt yourself, particularly if you find yourself tunneling the same person for a long time.
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 07 2012 13:55. Posts 155 | Profile # |
Hm, true. Sigh, w/e it's not like I'm changing my mind at this point. If I'm wrong, then I'll need to reevaluate the way I've played after this game. Which is something I would be doing no matter what the final result is(after going after iGrok for so long).
But I'm shooting you tonight so either I'm going to find out that the game is still going and thus Cephiro is almost certainly scum or I'm going to find out that town lost.
No matter what your alignment is, you're a really dedicated player.
If you're town, sorry  |
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 07 2012 14:01. Posts 155 | Profile # |
On July 07 2012 13:04 talismania wrote:
1) Never brag that when you're town, you're so town everyone knows. Apparently that's not always true.
And I never thought this way because you yourself said it. I thought this way because multiple other people (Kurumi and Acrofales come to mind) said this and because whenever I had played with you or seen you play as the game was going on (Pick Your Poison, Bastard 2, Bang Bang 2) I had identified you correctly as either scum or town. And those were all games where I was town/survivor/spectating. |
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| talismania United States. July 07 2012 15:05. Posts 2364 | Profile Blog # |
yeah hiro the problem I'm having now and why I've started getting paranoid about cephiro + dedede is that if it really is you plus grush then I actually think town is winning after both he and I flip. If I carry you tonight, then you have 0.5 kp which makes it easier for town, but even if I don't you only have 2.0 in a sea full of 3.0s which would make it really hard for you to solo the win. So I'm not sure what the justification for me carrying you honestly is, when instead I can carry cephiro (or I guess dedede) and hedge bets on the off chance that I convince grush to shoot me as well.
You interactions with strongandbig seem legit as well, while artanis' reluctance to delve into his with acro set off some alarm bells (what he did pull out looked like post coaching which also raises eyebrows). That said I will reiterate that acro has been playing really well if he is scum, acting just randomly enough to seem townie without messing up an underlying scum agenda.
Actually what about this: grush shoots me (I carry cephiro/dedede) and you shoot whomever I'm carrying. I'm at 0.5 kp and might die to a stage event but at least the game doesn't end right away if it really is cephiro+dedede. They can't shoot at me without dying themselves because your shot + grush's shot through me puts one of them at 0.5 kp.
Kinda late at night here but is this crazy? |
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 07 2012 15:10. Posts 155 | Profile # |
I'm not changing; I'm shooting you. I think you're scum, s&b thinks you're scum, and the player that the two of us have a town read on also thinks you're scum.
- Hiro |
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| talismania United States. July 07 2012 15:30. Posts 2364 | Profile Blog # |
well I have to keep trying =P
I'm going to carry cephiro.
Sleep on it tonight and before the deadline tomorrow at least give it one more readthrough and think-through. Talk to strongandbig if possible.
The way I see it, if you're scum you're already dead once grush flips scum and I flip town.
If you're town and think I'm scum with cephiro, shooting cephiro and having grush shoot me puts as both at 0.5 kp and therefore the scumteam you think is active is essentially crippled with no vote swaying ability anyway and the chance to die to the stage event.
I guess if bus driver buses cephiro with homerunbat or something then this simply doesn't work though.
Man.
Ok lemme think this through. If it's dedede + cephiro then obviously bus cephiro with homerunbat I guess. Then they have 2.5 kp to work with. If you're shooting me, then it's EZ win by killing grush. If you're not shooting me, then it's EZ win by using the NK on grush and cephiro's shot on me. Although if they really think that grush is going to shoot me, they can just use the NK on me and cephiro's shot on grush in order to avoid accidentally killing themselves if both saturn + cephiro shoot me.
Dear lord the only way town survives the night in this scenario is if they would be wifom'd into making the wrong decision about where to put their kills. Seems impossible though. |
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| Mister Saturn Vatican City State. July 08 2012 02:24. Posts 155 | Profile # |
I'm moving my things to a storage facility so I won't be there at deadline.
s&b, you can do whatever you like. |
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