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| Zorkmid Canada. July 04 2012 00:50. Posts 3858 | Profile Blog # |
My predictions
Group A: Nerchio, Socke, ToD, Naama
Group B: ClouD, IdrA, Bly, BlinG
Group C: Ret, Happy, ReaL, iNcontroL
Group D: SaSe, GoOdy, DIMAGA, DarKFoRcE
Group E: MC, HasuObs, Tarson, TLO
Group F: MaNa, Sleep, Kas, Destiny
Group G: Sheth, YongHwa, sLivko, DBS
Group H: mvp, Golden, NightEnD, monchi |
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 pallad Poland. July 04 2012 00:54. Posts 1713 | Profile # |
LOL almost no one pick Nerchio out of group A ?
Nerchio and Socke top 2 in this group EZ. |
| | SC 2 -LingsLover- EU -- Jaedong , NesTea , Nerchio , DRG , Moon , Oz , Tarson , Scarlett -- Dota 2 Pallad EU- NaVi - LGD |  |
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| TheOneAboveU Germany. July 04 2012 00:59. Posts 807 | Profile # |
Ok I´ll try myself aswell:
A: Nerchio and Socke, but ToD has a decent chance to upset (if you can call that upset). You shouldt never underestimate Naama tho.
B: I can see ClouD, IdrA or Bly advancing here, but not BlinG I think. IdrA can go 6:0 or 0:6... hmm I go with the Zergs, IdrA and Bly.
C: Obv. Ret for number 1, but place to will be a heavy fight between Happy and ReaL... I hope for ReaL.
D: I wouldt like to see the two Germans advancing obv., but SaSe and Dima are to strong I guess. DF can upset them maybe.
E: MC and Hasu.
F: Kas and MaNa.
G: YongHwa and as my Dark Horse DBS, who has been on fire lately and giving us great games in TSL 4 Quali and EPS.
H: Mvp and monchi, so Nightend can cast =) |
| | We all must do our duty; great or small, we must do our duty. |  |
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| TKK July 04 2012 01:09. Posts 40 | Profile # |
they forget to invite daisy.
korean player who recently moved to germany and is playing for german team ESC and easily qualified for TSL4 a few weeks ago.
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| speknek July 04 2012 01:11. Posts 756 | Profile # |
On July 03 2012 22:19 Dagobert wrote:
Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 21:33 speknek wrote:
On July 03 2012 21:21 Dagobert wrote:
On July 03 2012 19:08 furo wrote:
Group A: Nerchio, Socke, ToD, Naama
Nerchio, Socke are the obv choices for sure.
Group B: ClouD, IdrA, Bly, Bling
i think Cloud wont make it vs 2 zergs, which leaves 1 zerg getting trough, Bling is not in top form right now so i go with the two zergs to make it out of groups. Bly, IdrA.
Since neither really took something down lately its prolly the easiest group, either of them would have no chance in the other ones.
Group C: Ret, Happy, ReaL, IncontroL
Ret, Real will make it.
Incontrol is not really in a good shape (if he ever was). Happy might upset us if he can beat both protoss.
Group D: SaSe, GoOdy, Dimaga, DarK.FoRcE
SaSe, Dimaga will make it.
maybe DF can upset
Goody will have no chance vs 2 good zergs who can exploid him and SaSe is a monster vs terrans
Group E: MC, HasuObs, Tarson, TLO
MC, Hasu will go trough.
maybe TLO can upset if his PvZ is great. He recently lost to Hasu 1:2 in uber close matches at the german WCS. since he will come from korea and maybe be a bit tired i dont think he can make it tho.
poor Tarson will not have any chances but he obv has to be at every HSC
Group F: MaNa, Sleep, Kas, Destiny
will be close between MaNa, Kas and Sleep. Destiny will have alot of time to play poker.
i go with Sleep and Kas to make it.
Group G: Sheth, YongHwa, Slivko, DBS
i have not seen alot of sheth lately, Slivko and DBS can upset everyone. DBS will prepare like crazy for this event so i think he will have decent chances.
i'll go with YongHwa and DBS.
Group F: MVP, Golden, NightenD, Monchi
MVP and Golden are my picks. maybe Monchi or Nightend can upset.
According to my analysis... A: Nerchio (67%), Socke (50%), ToD (43%), Naama (40%) B: Bly (57%), Bling (57%), Cloud (43%), Idra (43%) C: Happy (60%), Ret (57%), Real (50%), Incontrol (33%) D: Sase (63%), Dimaga (53%), Darkforce (43%), Goody (40%) E: MC (70%), Hasuobs (53%), TLO (40%), Tarson (37%) F: Sleep (60%), Kas (57%), Mana (50%), Destiny (33%) G: Slivko (57%), Sheth (50%), Yonghwa (47%), DBS (47%) H: Mvp (57%), Nightend (50%), Monchi (50%), Golden (43%) So that will be my prediction.
Did you write a script or are those random %?
I essentially used TLPD's vX ELOs to compute the probability for each player to advance. However, I tweaked the formula because you can't assume that a TvZ ELO 2200 player will beat a ZvT ELO 2150 player all the time, so I looked at what effect ELO difference makes, and drawing from very little data (that's where my formula is weakest; could easily improve it but that's where my laziness set in) I estimated 1 SD to affect each player's Pwin by 10% (so players within 114 ELO pts are 50%, 114-227 difference will make it 60/40 and so on). Then simply compute everything for all groups and voilá. Edit: Of course the data is biased now, but this predicts DH stage 3 group winners with 70% accuracy. Taking the raw ELO for the same formula predicts DHs3 winners with 81% accuracy, but for HSC the two only differ in their predictions of group E and H (with a 3-way-tie between Mana, Kas and Sleep in group F). Overall ELO sees MC and TLO go through for group E and Mvp and monchi win group H. Since I disagree with these, I chose vX ELO instead.
Alright cool, thanks for replying. Love me some stats & prob :d
Was thinking of doing something similar myself, but I'm lazy and got exams atm ;(Last edit: 2012-07-04 01:12:39 |
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| Fortunate S0n Switzerland. July 04 2012 01:11. Posts 41 | Profile # | |
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| MrJoKer France. July 04 2012 01:13. Posts 219 | Profile # |
| Homestory cup is a badass tournament . I love it . |
| | @AbeggJip |  |
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| heartlxp United States. July 04 2012 01:15. Posts 486 | Profile # | |
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| DDie Brazil. July 04 2012 01:15. Posts 564 | Profile # |
Damn, it's that time of the year again.
It looks like it was yesterday we had homestory cup IV. |
| | ''Television! Teacher, mother, secret lover.'' |
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| Soma Cruz United States. July 04 2012 02:01. Posts 209 | Profile # |
Hahaha, Destiny has Kas in his group. Kas doesn't like Destiny too much, xd.
Good luck to him, would like to see him take at least one series. But if he gets knocked out sooner, more casting! |
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| RuzaSK Slovakia. July 04 2012 02:01. Posts 117 | Profile # |
All of the groups are pretty stacked :D it's good but also bad as I can't choose who to cheer for :D
also I really like the race distribution, all races in each of the groups should be fun  |
| | It's simple, if it jiggles, it's fat. ~ Arnold Schwarzenegger |
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| Ireniicus United Kingdom. July 04 2012 02:06. Posts 374 | Profile # |
| As long as Bling crushes Idra, Destiny loses every game and Happy makes Incontrol unHappy I will be smiling |
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| Dashmaster47 Germany. July 04 2012 02:19. Posts 25 | Profile # | |
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| Olinim July 04 2012 02:21. Posts 3982 | Profile # |
Predictions:
Nerchio Socke
Cloud Bly
Ret Real
Sase Dimaga
MC Hasuobs
Mana Sleep
Sheth Yonghwa
MVP golden |
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| Ktk Korea (South). July 04 2012 02:22. Posts 708 | Profile Blog # |
the koreans by names alone don't seem as fun as last time with mc, mkp, etc.
hopefully they will smile some more at Homestory
correction: hopefully they will prove that they are fun too :3Last edit: 2012-07-04 02:22:51 |
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| Mrvoodoochild1 United States. July 04 2012 02:22. Posts 1434 | Profile # |
| MVP should take it as there are no real elite zergs at the tourny |
| | "let your freak flag fly" |  |
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| yoshi7319 July 04 2012 02:24. Posts 42 | Profile # |
thanks, Robin, Dash,
finally found it...ordering via paypal doesn´t work atm - maybe someone can fix this?! |
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| Snow948 Germany. July 04 2012 02:29. Posts 83 | Profile # |
I think Goody can surprise with second Place in his group.
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| sVnteen Germany. July 04 2012 02:31. Posts 2164 | Profile # | |
| | MY LIFE STARTS NOW ♥ |  |
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| petrash Czech Republic. July 04 2012 02:35. Posts 16 | Profile # | |
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