[Code S] RO16: Group C Recap/Group D Preview

Results from Live Report Thread by opterown.
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Haters Gonna Hate
– ByunPrime and Quantic.NaNiwa advance as MvPKeen and Genius are eliminated

Few of the players in this season's Code S have had a tougher path than Byun. After peaking with a top four Code S finish last July, he was sent hurtling back down to Code B within two seasons. Afterward, he became embroiled in the ESV weekly scandal and was put in the proverbial doghouse for months, hitting as close to rock-bottom as you can get as a Korean progamer.

Almost a year after reaching his personal high in Code S, Byun has almost climbed his way back to where he used to be. With consecutive victories over Keen and Genius in the GSL Ro16, he has matched he has reached the Ro8 once more, and now has a chance to match his previous high-score and possibly one-up himself as the tournament goes on.

NaNiwa, too, continued to find redemption in winning. While some fans and players may never get over his seven-probe rush against Nestea in 2011's Blizzard Cup, his skill – at the very least – cannot be doubted. Like in his Ro32 group, NaNiwa dropped his first set against a Protoss opponent in Genius, but came back to finish second place in his group with consecutive wins.

– A bumpy road, but victory in the end for Byun

It was not the smoothest path to a first place finish for Byun, as he won both of his matches 2 – 1 and faced some close calls in the process. Byun's initial series against Keen was particularly difficult, as his three consecutive banshee builds were countered by three consecutive viking builds. Yet, Byun found a way to power on through. In the first game on Whirlwind, he used his one single advantage in a faster stimpak upgrade to overcome an early deficit. Byun then lost the second game, taking a huge amount of damage to Keen's counter-banshee after his own banshee failed to achieve any significant results.

It all came down to a third, hard-fought game on Entombed Valley. With Byun going bio and Keen going mech, the roles seemed reversed for much of the game. Paradoxically, Keen relentlessly attacked to try and prevent Byun from getting his bearings, while Byun scurried to put out fires. In the end, Byun was able to get his affairs in order while disrupting Keen's economy on the other end of the map, eventually forcing the GG out of his opponent.

Byun's winners' match against Genius had the same set score, but victory came slightly easier. The first game was almost a gift, with an accidental early base trade ending up hugely in Byun's favor due to the power of stimpak and medivacs. Byun then tried to combat Genius with an unusual, tank heavy composition on Whirlwind, but saw his 1 – 0 lead get instantly erased alongside his army when he was caught out of siege mode.

The series and the first place spot was decided on Antiga Shipyard, where both players sat back and allowed each other to get their end-game armies. Excellent use of ghosts combined with some poor army positioning from Genius meant his high templar threat was quickly neutralized, and Byun was able to charge his way straight into the Ro8.

– NaNiwa repeats Ro32 success formula with loss – win – win

Swap in "Genius" for "Creator" and "Keen" for "TheStC," and NaNiwa's Ro16 story would be almost identical to his experience in the Ro32. Despite going 3 – 3 overall against Genius, NaNiwa laughed last – and thus laughed loudest – making his way into the Ro16.

The night started with an ill omen for NaNiwa, as Genius exploited the recent PvP propensity to scout late by building proxy-gateways right under NaNiwa's nose. NaNiwa attempted a two stalker, all-probe counter attack once he saw zealots flooding into his base, but a pylon-cannon wall at Genius' main meant that NaNiwa would have to try his luck in the second set. That game went more to NaNiwa's liking, as he successfully defended his faster expansion and rode his advantage to a victory.

The deciding set on Cloud Kingdom saw Genius open blink-obs pressure against NaNiwa'a fast expansion. Genius exploited the terrain of Cloud Kingdom brilliantly, picking NaNiwa apart with blink while taking his own expansion at home. Though NaNiwa survived, Genius had pulled too far ahead and the series ended in victory for the '12 GSL Season One runner-up.

Facing elimination, NaNiwa hung on to defeat Keen 2 - 0 in a DreamHack Summer rematch, completing a combined 4 – 0 home and away sweep. Both games happened to be a bit strange, but game two was notable as one of the ugliest Code S matches in a long time. A failed cheese from Keen led to one thing, NaNiwa's failed counter-attack led to another, and the game collapsed into a sequence of strange decisions with even stranger results. Though it wasn't the prettiest series, it didn't really matter to NaNiwa as he moved onto the final match of the night.

The first set of the revenge-match echoed the first series, as NaNiwa once more went for a fast expansion against Genius' blink-obs build on Cloud Kingdom. However, NaNiwa was able to defend much better the second time around, and the end result was both players sitting fairly evenly on two bases. The game progressed into a late-game colossus duel, and NaNiwa triumped with better positioning. NaNiwa wasn't able to achieve much success with his own blink-obs build in the second set, so the series moved on to a final, do or die set on Ohana.

Both Genius and NaNiwa played very passively as they took three bases on their respective halves of the map, gearing up slowly for an eventual max-out battle. With similar army compositions, Genius seemed to have the advantage from having upgraded from two forges instead of NaNiwa's one. However, when the time came for the final showdown, Genius showed up without colossus range. As a result, NaNiwa's army won an absurdly one-sided victory, making way for a second straight Ro8 appearance for the Swede.


Game of the Night: ByunPrime vs MvPKeen - Game Three

Byun and Keen played an interesting TvT where role reversal was the theme, as Keen's waves of small mech forces did their best to stretch apart Byun's bio-ball. After a series of battles, Byun ended up in a situation his army had lost critical mass, and it was actually viable for Keen to split up his mech army and send it out in small detachments. Keen came very close to winning with his atypical use of mech, but Byun managed to disrupt Keen's resource collection and put together a bio-ball solid enough to sweep everything up.

MvPDongRaeGu, SlayerS_Ryung, SuperNoVa, LG-IMNesTea

Initial matches

MvPDongRaeGu vs SlayerS_Ryung

"[In ZvT,] as long as I don't make a mistake – regardless of whether my opponent plays well or not – as long as I don't make a mistake, I play thinking that I am going to win."

Coming from any other player, we'd think this was hubristic nonsense. However, since these are DongRaeGu's words, Terran players around the world can only respond with solemn nods.

Ever since Zergs figured out how to fully abuse the queen patch, DongRaeGu has looked virtually unbeatable in the match-up. The only games he's dropped have come from early attacks – either successful ones from his opponents, or when his own calculated risks go wrong. When the game plays out standard, DongRaeGu is completely in control as he annihilates his opponents.

Ryung is no pushover in TvZ, and he was very impressive as he dismantled Leenock in the RO32. Leenock couldn't keep up with Ryung's harassment, and despite being able to put together a powerful hive army in each game, he eventually found himself without enough expansions to go on. But it will be an entirely different story against the best ZvT player in the world.

DongRaeGu will cruise through if he's allowed to play a standard macro game, so this series hinges on Ryung's ability to throw DongRaeGu off-course. Unfortunately for Ryung, the TvZ all-in and pressure build repertoire is fairly predictable (whether it's blue flame hellions, marine-hellion-marauder stim timings, or what have you), and DongRaeGu was already one of the best ZvT defenders before the queen patch.

SuperNoVa vs LG-IMNesTea

It would be hard for any Terran player to try and beat DongRaeGu in a series, but oddly enough, I think SuperNoVa is one of the players who would have a decent chance. I've come to terms with his poor performance at IEM Sao Paulo (stomachache or not), and I'm willing to accept the fact that he might be one of the guys who only truly excels when he has time to prepare for his matches. In the past, he was taking care of TvP with a variety of one-two base timings, and I think he'll be able to apply that skill to TvZ quite well. Already in the previous round, he took down the very formidable MvPSniper with a two base attack that cut-out medivacs to inflate his tank count.

Of course, SuperNoVa's not facing DongRaeGu first, but another Zerg champion in Nestea. Nestea hasn't shown DRG levels of dominance since the queen patch (nor could he, since he's only played one ZvT series since), but we did see him dismantle TheStC with relative ease in the RO32. While the queen buff is great for all Zergs, it seems particularly great for Nestea. Nestea's not as fast or mechanically gifted as other players, but he's stayed competitive because he plays big-picture, macro games very well. The queen patch helped Zerg in precisely that aspect, by allowing them to paint that picture without interruption.

Much like the DRG vs Ryung match-up, Nestea will probably defeat SuperNoVa easily if they play standard games. While SuperNoVa is more well-known for his Code S survival skills than Ryung, it's going to be a similarly up-hill battle for him to crack Nestea's shell.


Winnner' match and onward

The most awaited match must be the potential DongRaeGu vs Nestea rematch from 2012 GSL Season One. At the time, ZvZ was starting to show its potential as something more than a boring roach-fest, but DRG and Nestea really took the match-up to its limits by providing one of the most entertaining mirror series the GSL has ever seen. In fact, it's probably still the best ZvZ series we've seen in Code S so far. While a rematch may not yield as exciting games, the gap between the two players in ZvZ should still be razor thin. A SuperNoVa vs Ryung mirror should also be similarly even, though I can't say that they have the same illustrious history together (Ryung beat SuperNoVa in two fairly one-sided base trades in a February Code A match).

When it comes down to the two other possible TvZ's, I think it's pretty much the same story as the initial matches. The Zergs will want to play their standard macro game, while the Terrans will have to do their best to avoid that scenario.

Overall outlook and prediction

In the end, I'm just going to go with the easiest prediction and the one most people are making. I think SuperNoVa and Ryung are not as huge underdogs as the overshadowing names "DRG" and "Nestea" might make them seem, but they're still very hard pressed to come up with a victory in this TvZ environment. Unless they have some inspired all-ins or cheeses, the two Terrans are going to be on their way out.

DongRaeGu > Ryung
Nestea > SuperNoVa
DongRaeGu > Nestea
Ryung > SuperNoVa
Nestea > Ryung

DongRaeGu and Nestea advance.