Summer Arena: Draft Review

By: Waxangel

Consulting by tree.hugger and NrGmonk

Update: Now includes post-draft review!

Ever since the above provision showed up in the MLG Arena rulebook last season, we've been excited.

A draft! After tailgaiting and absurd amounts of commercials, there's nothing else that so quintessentially defines American sports. The fact that it was implemented in the most American of leagues, Major League Gaming, was no great surprise. It follows that it should be no surprise to you, dear reader, that we give the draft a very American sports journalism treatment: a mock draft.

Last time, we were only in time to do a belated draft review. This time around, with MLG's live group show coming up, we acquired the seeding list so we could indulge in the time honored tradition of pretending to know better than the players and tell them who they should pick.

Player Seeding
+ Show Spoiler [Player Seeding] +


#1: SlayerS_Alicia

Player's Pick: Sasquatch

It was the obvious #1 pick to anyone in the West, and it turns out that Alicia also got the memo. Kudos to the SlayerS camp, the foreigners who advised Alicia at NASL, or whoever it was that helped him make this pick. Or maybe it was even Alicia himself, taking the time out to dig through TLPD and liquipedia to scout out his opponents. In any case, congratulations to Alicia on getting the best pick in the draft!

Pre-Draft Analysis
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#2: Quantic.SaSe

Player Pick: ESC.GoOdy

The obvious, best pick for SaSe and his strong PvT was either of the two foreign Terrans. We thought he should pick qxc, but SaSe opted to with the Panzer General GoOdy instead. Honestly there's not much between the two, and SaSe would be strongly favored against either player. Perhaps SaSe just preferred to play a more familiar opponent than risk dealing with a more unpredictable opponent.

Pre-Draft Analysis
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#3: EG.PuMa

Player Pick: EC.Welmu

Welmu was the player we thought PuMa would pick, but not necessarily the player we thought he should pick. It's completely understandable if PuMa personally feels better about his TvP and thinks he should avoid TvZ at all costs. But...

Maybe we're just a little higher on Welmu's skill than most. He seems like he's just a little bit too dangerous JUST to take for being a Protoss foreigner. Not with the #3 pick.

In the end, it's really just splitting hairs. PuMa would have been strongly favored against Tefel, Snute, Welmu, or whoever he decided to take at this spot.

Pre-Draft Analysis
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#4: Mill.Stephano

Player Pick: coL.qxc

Forget the 11 – 3 against foreign Protoss players last weekend. We still think Stephano's best match-up is post-queen patch ZvT. Exactly like SaSe, the best choice for Stephano was one of the two foreign Terrans, GoOdy or qxc.

Due to the players picking above him, Stephano was almost much guaranteed to get one or the other. Sasquatch was bound to go ASAP, SaSe was definitely taking one of the Terrans, while PuMa was highly unlikely to take a TvT.

There's really nothing to complain about here. This is an A+ steal, because if Stephano had been picking first, it's not unlikely that he would have taken qxc with the #1 overall pick – forgoing Sasquatch because of his own ZvZ aversion.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#5: FnaticRC Oz

Player Pick: BLAST.roof

At #5, this could be a bit of a miss-pick. With Sasquatch and both foreign Terrans surely gone by the fourth pick, Oz was going into the draft knowing he'd be shopping for a European Zerg at #5 (he's wisely given up on PvP for the time being, it appears). That gave him a choice between Cytoplasm, Roof, Snute, and Tefel at this spot. Of the four, we of the belief that Cytoplasm struggles a bit more than the rest at ZvP, and was the best choice for Oz.

That said, it's probably just splitting hairs, as Oz would beat all of them anyway. Well, except maybe Snute...

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#6: coL.GanZi

Player Pick: GL.Snute

Here are the two most likely ways this pick was made.

1) Ganzi refused to pick a Korean, and rolled the dice on all the remaining foreigners.

2) Someone on Complexity opened up the TLPD profiles, saw Snute's 41% ZvT win rate, and told Ganzi to pick him.

Honestly, we think that Ganzi's TvT is so beastly, and TvZ is so annoying, that he should have just taken a fellow Korean in Rain. But can you really call out a Korean for picking a foreigner out of pure principle? Recent progress says that the day is coming soon when all that will change, but not just yet.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#7: FnaticRC aLive

Player Pick: ESC.Daisy

aLive decided to be this tournament's Symbol, ruthlessly picking one of his countrymen to further his own chances at winning. Although, you must wonder if it's actually camaraderie that stops other Korean-Korean picks. Perhaps they are all making 100% rational choices, and they truly believe that most foreigners are just that bad.

In any case, it's a perfect choice for aLive and his strong TvP, and one he might have been expecting. Considering the preferred match-ups of the six players above him, it was unlikely that both foreign Protosses in Daisy (essentially a foreigner) and Welmu would already have been snapped up.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#8: Grubby

Player Pick: BLAST.Tefel

Fortuitously placed at #8, the cut-off line where foreigners in the draft dry up, Grubby managed to escape with a desirable pick in Tefel. Picking Rain, probably the weakest Korean in the pool, was also an option here, but Grubby instead opted to two-immortal all-in a European Zerg into oblivion. From what we can tell, it still works fairly well in Europe, so why not stick to it?

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#9: Liquid`HerO

Player Pick: Ai.Cytoplasm

It should be illegal to get such a windfall at #9. Somehow, the combination of four Euro-zergs in the draft pool, and a bunch of TvZ averse Terrans picking in the top eight means that HerO gets to play his best match-up versus one of the best possible opponents for him (only Sasquatch would clearly be a better pick). Yes, HerO got beat down by Stephano at NASL, but so did MC and Alicia. That's more indicative of Stephano being awesome at ZvP (and Bel'Shir and Dual Sight being awful maps) that the skill level of those three Protoss players. Cytoplasm has been running very hot lately, but this will be the toughest challenge he's had in months.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#10: GoldenLight

Player Pick: TOP

Golden's best match-up is ZvT. TOP and Rain remain on the board. Golden picks TOP.

...What?

Rain and TOP are very similar in how they won GSL silvers and then went on to spend the rest of their careers being terrible compared to their peaks. Even so, wouldn't most people rate TOP at least slightly higher than Rain? Rain's silver came in GSL Open Season 3 (2010), when compared to now, people didn't even know how to play the game. At least TOP got his silver in GSL August (2011), when the quality of GSL games had risen past the "tolerable" line.

We've barely seen anything of TOP in 2012, and we're mostly going by his preliminaries results and inability to break through Code B to judge him. Unless Golden and Rain became fast friends on the international circuit or something like that, then this pick has some negative implications for TOP.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#11: WW.SortOf

Player Pick: LG-IM First

Seeing as that First is really good, and that he's barely lost any PvZ in his short but colorful career after switching from BW to SC2, I can only interpret this pick by SortOf as incredibly brave and worthy of our applause, or just borderline suicidal.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#12: viOLet

Player Pick: FnaticRC Rain

Not much to say here, as the rest of the bracket kind of fills itself automatically. Preferring ZvT, viOLet was left with a choice between Rain and Ryung, and understandably, he took the guy who's not in Code S, and didn't recently beat DongRaeGu on the most Zerg favored map in the GSL.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#13: Quantic.Illusion

Player Pick: TSL_RevivaL

With Ryung and Losira pretty clearly the best two players remaining and guaranteed to get pickd last, Illusion was left with an interesting choice between Revival and Dream. Both players are borderline Code A Koreans who have shown glimpses of brilliance, but don't have much semblance of consistency. Illusion hasn't had the best of luck against top players of either race, but it's odd to see him try his hand at the much hated TvZ.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +

Ryung is a recently Code S, TvT monster, so he's instantly out of the question. Losira is Zerg, so he's out by default as well. That leaves First and Dream. Dream was good but not great in his first tour of the international circuit, impressing against Terran and Protoss but behind held back by his TvZ like many others Terrans. First hasn't competed internationally yet, but he's kicking up a big cloud of dust as he stampedes through online qualifiers in Korea, picking up the legacy of the elephant that fOrGG has unfortunately failed to live up to. It's a close call, but First's lack of experience in dealing with jet lag and travel gives him the push ahead


#14: Liquid`TaeJa

Player Pick: MYM.MvP.Dream

Though TypeReal is the player who has the true last pick, Illusion had his own version of the last pick as well. There was no way TaeJa was picking Losira or Ryung, so he ended up taking the player between Revival/Dream that that Illusion decided to leave him.

Pre-Draft Analysis
+ Show Spoiler [Pre-draft Analysis] +


#15: TypeReaL

Player Pick: LG-IMLosirA

#16: Liquid`Sheth

Pick: SlayerS_Ryung

We've made plenty of fun of Ryung over the months for his bad TvP record, but it was mostly due to the fact that he would constantly get all-in'd in every tournament game we saw. When we saw him get to the mid-late game, he was actually pretty damn good (TaeJa has picked up on his tradition). It's my belief that TypeReal still should have gone for three-gate void rays against Ryung, but if he wants to two-immortal rush Losira to death, then that's fine too!

As for Sheth, he's left with the BAMF award winner of this draft, Ryung. MLG's seeding went pretty well in this case with the #17 seed Ryung actually ending up in the #17 seed place. As the only consistent Code S player in the draft, he was the natural pick to go last. It's hard to tell whether this is good or bad for Sheth, as he gets the best match-up, but also against the most skilled player.

Pre-Draft Analysis
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