[IEM] Cologne - Group Stage D1 Preview

by Waxangel

If you want to see who beat who, and who made it through, head on over to Liquipedia for the full brackets. If you want to download replays, head over to the ESL site (spoiler free layout!). Here are some brief thoughts to wrap up the first day of Gamescom.

Nani?! NaNiwa eliminated?

After receiving a short term sponsorship from Mionix to compete at IEM Cologne, NaNiwa didn't exactly make the best case for receiving a contract extension after he crashed out of the tournament with consecutive losses to AureS and YongHwa.

Honestly, given NaNiwa's spotty record at foreign LANs in 2012, it's not the weirdest upset we've seen, but the extenuating circumstances around his exit were intriguing indeed. NaNiwa offered up the explanation that JYP interfered as he was playing his games against AureS, which IEM later clarified by explaining that JYP had come to say hi to NaNiwa, not knowing he was in an official tournament game. Of course, Stephano couldn't resist chipping in with his thoughts, which were, well, typical Stephano. JYP wasn't exactly pleased with being made a scapegoat, and had some choice words to add as well.

So, who are the winners and losers in this latest case of ESPORTS drama? (Besides me, since I'm obviously a loser for writing so much about it already).

Winner: NaNiwa
Refrained from saying "Joke tournament," thus avoiding burning yet another bridge.

Loser: Stephano
His trash talking was par for the course, but mostly served to remind us of how he dodged playing a showmatch with NaNiwa months ago.

No Change: IEM
IEM's indistinguishable practice/official game area has been begging for this kind of problem for years now. However, can you really blame them for not preparing for the possibility of a Korean pro-gamer being outgoing, personable, and actively approaching foreigners?

Loser: JYP
Come on, that was kind of dumb.

Winner: JYP
Still, he now owns the best English tweet from a Korean progamer ever.


Germany All-Killed

Apparently there weren't any East German officials employed by IEM, as the open bracket seeding placed three of the home country's fan favorites, Socke, XlorD, and DarKFoRcE all in the same group... with NesTea and PuMa. After that, they threw in not-Chilean Killer and Strelok in for good measure. To absolutely no one's surprise, not a single German player managed to advance. With Delphi also getting eliminated from another open bracket group, that leaves just HasuObs to carry the banner for his country in the Ro24 groups.

However, it's too soon to lose hope. Together in a group with VortiX, SuperNova, KiLLeR, MC, and ReaL, HasuObs has a decent shot at making top three and progressing to the next round. The two players he drew from the open bracket were ReaL and MC, both of whom should be quite palatable opponents for HasuObs considering it's PvP. After that point, bracket luck will factor in heavily as to how far he can make it in the elimination tournament.

In addition, ReaL also made it through the open bracket by defeating LG-IM's YongHwa for a second place finish in his group. Real has been competing out of Germany for nearly a year now, which is longer than it took for American to claim viOLet and SeleCT as her adopted sons. Could anyone really blame Germany for doing the same with ReaL?

by Waxangel

Group A: WW.SortOf, Acer.Nerchio, TSL_inori, EG.DeMusliM, Mill.ForGG, EG.PuMa

1st place advances to Ro8, 2nd and 3rd advance to Ro12

Though it's easy to look at the seven GSL championships over next door in group B, Group A stands out among all four group Ro24 groups as the one that's the hardest to predict. While it probably doesn't have the strongest player in the tournament, all six players are extremely skilled nonetheless with very little separating them. They're unlucky to be grouped together, but the viewers should count themselves fortunate to see a group where they can expect all the games to be close.

Elephant vs PuMa: The Original Elephant fOrGG has finally called it quits in Korea, forfeiting his Code A spot to look for more lucrative opportunities in Europe. After all the foreign money he's tasted during his hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of streaming, you can't blame him. He's already been a hit, taking third place in his debut at ASUS ROG Summer. That finish alone justifies his decision to leave Korea, with the third place prize of $4,000 already matching his GSL winnings so far.

What's more impressive is that he did it while trespassing all over PuMa's turf, uprooting trees and tearing up the dirt. In 2011, PuMa was the king of extracting money from international tournaments, and another Korean Terran with an affinity for 1/1/1s must have felt like an imminent threat to his domain. PuMa tried to make fOrGG fight for his cut, but he ended up getting soundly beaten, losing 1 – 3 and then 2 – 3 to get eliminated from ASUS ROG.

PuMa seems to have shrugged off that setback, coming into this group with a strong open bracket performance where he beat DarkForce, Killer, and Nestea in a row. It's time for round two between these two beastly Terrans, and their groupmates will have to take care not to be trampled underneath.

SortOf a big deal

Yes, I recycled that header.

Looking at their most recent results, SortOf and Nerchio are two of the players carrying the most foreign hopes for this tournament. Everyone will be familiar with Nerchio's championship run through HomeStoryCup V, where he beat MC and Yonghwa by a combined score of 7 – 2 to take first place. Though SortOf can't match that GSL champion toppling achievement, he has come out of nowhere to get some great results, taking 2nd place at WCS Sweden and making top eight at a Korean packed ASUS ROG Summer (MaNa was the only other non-Korean quarter-finalist). There might be more famous international names in this tournament, but you'll be hard pressed to find any that are doing better at this very moment.

There's less pressure on SortOf to get another good result here, since as mentioned above, he did come out of nowhere, and fans are still in the process of getting to know him. Even if he didn't advance, playing a few respectable games and dropping out against this array of strong players would enhance his reputation. However, if he gets out of the group, he'd be taking a giant hammer swing at the glass ceiling separating himself from the elites of the international scene.

This is an opportunity for Nerchio as well. He doesn't have to prove that he can 'do it again,' as foreigners love their heroes too much to force them to such lengths. Instead, this tournament is a chance to go even further, pushing out the Swedish trio of ThorZaIN, SaSe, and NaNiwa to put himself solidly in second place in the top foreigner debates. And from there, it's just another hop, skip, and jump away to Stephano vs Nerchio becoming new, primary rivalry of Starcraft II.

Do pro-gamers themselves actually care about this crap? Probably not. But it does happen to be splendidly entertaining as a fan.

And the rest

In a stacked group, DeMusliM and Inori would have to be reluctantly considered the least scary players by a narrow margin. However, anything could happen in this group, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see either of them make the top three. That's all I can afford to type until EG or TSL send me a check.

by Waxangel

Group B: Mill.Feast, Empire|Kas, Tt.PiG, AZUBU.viOLet, LG-IM_Mvp, LG-IM_NesTea

1st place advances to Ro8, 2nd and 3rd advance to Ro12

Elephant in the Group

Sometimes, we at TL regret running the "Elephant in the room" jokes into the ground, since now it's hard to use them in any context other than KeSPA players. Now is such a time, since it's an expression that would be pretty appropriate for this group.

It would be great to talk about the return of Feast, IEM Season Six's break-out star, discuss WCS Australia champion PiG's chances outside of his small pond, muse on the implications of viOLet's Code S level skill that was cultivated outside Korea, or try to dispel Kas' undeserved reputation for being bad at LANs. It would be great, but not when there's seven Code S Championship's worth of players together in this group.

No one can deny that at this point in their careers, Mvp and Nestea are living off their reputations to some degree. Their mechanics are definitely worse compared to their newer colleagues, and the games from their earlier championship runs have not aged very well when you wander back for a another viewing.

However, it's very difficult to tell whether they've merely lost a bit of their exterior luster, or if there's been real, fundamental decline. Mvp seemed 100% done, stick-a-fork-in-him done as a champion as early as February this year, but he came roaring back with one of the greatest runs in Starcraft II history to to win Code S for a record-setting fourth time in May. On a lesser, but still impressive level, Nestea proved he still had that spark in him as he took third place at IPL4 in April. Class, as they say, is permanent.

Those high points contrast harshly with the lows, such as Mvp's trip to HSC V which is almost better being totally forgotten. Dropping games against, Ret, Naama, and Monchi ("who?" POINT MADE), Mvp looked absolutely terrible compared to his championship standard. Likewise, Nestea has also shown weakness in the past, dropping out of Winter Arena after losing to DeMuslim and NaNiwa.

Where do they stand now? Well, we can say this much: Mvp and Nestea would never have decided to play at this tournament if not for their obligation to LG at Gamescom. Sure, there's always a chance that they will do well, but it's the same chance any Code S level Korean has at an international tournament. Unless they are big favorites to win it all, like they were at any tournament during their primes in 2011, there's no reason for Mvp and Nestea to jet set around the world at the risk of damaging their reputations. They know where they are at their best (the GSL), and as pro-gamers, they're probably pretty damn good at risk-reward assessment.

Yet, here they are, waiting to see what this forced gamble might yield. A championship? A little bit more polish on an already shining reputation. Top four? Status quo will be kept, and they will have dodged a bullet. Any less? Then LG may have to start thinking about how to better protect their investment.