[IEM] Cologne - Ro12 Preview

by Waxangel

ROG.elfi vs AZUBU.viOLet

As with any series involving elfi, this is a must watch for lovers of unpredictability and chaos. There's one series that immediately comes to mind from recent memory, when Elfi took on ST_Life in the TSL4 Ro32 (VODs). As a Korean pro-gamer with a reputation for being great on ladder, Life was considered a vast favorite by the majority of the Starcraft II community, but elfi showed his usual disregard for public opinion by going up 2 – 0. Just one win away from pulling off what would have been the biggest upset in the tournament, elfi proceeded to blow it all with a series of highly entertaining, but seriously backfiring cannon-rushes.

viOLet is a Zerg who is vastly more accomplished than Life in live tournaments, but even he will have to watch out for elfi's low-APM black magic. The two have never met in international competition, but viOLet should at least know of elfi's strange reputation after spending so much time in the foreign scene.

Objectively, it's pretty clear that viOLet is the favorite here, as is typically the case for Elfi's non-Protoss opponents (Elfi has a weird affinity for PvP). Elfi is good at using cheeses or two base all-ins where he doesn't need precision execution or extreme multi-tasking to win; just a good sense of when to wait for a round of reinforcements, good positioning, and the ability to put down force-fields that aren't absolutely horrible. viOLet used to be really susceptible to that sort of play a while ago, but has since then become a far better defensive player. The smart prediction here is to say viOLet will deftly parry Elfi's attacks and proceed to overwhelm him. However, with elfi in the mix, you must be ready to expect the unexpected, and deal with any result.

Prediction: viOLet 3 – 1 elfi


SK_MC vs Empire|Kas

Almost exactly a year ago, MC and Kas faced off in IEM Season Six's Cologne tournament. There, in true MC fashion for the period, MC came out on top by easily cutting up Kas' infantry with force-fields, and then busting through without even needing a robotics bay.

One year later, the level of play has increased vastly. While it's unlikely that we'll see the games play out that way again, both players have retained their defining traits, and the overarching narrative for this match remains the same: The greedy macro Terran Kas against the master all-iner MC.

Great macro Terrans know how to cut just enough corners to get an economic advantage while staying safe, translating to what looks like an almost insurmountable unit lead later. Kas has found a formula that works very well for him in Europe – check his romp over Fraer in the recent RSL (Replays) for a good TvP example. The problem is that he faces MC, the undisputed master of all-ins and timing attacks. It's safe to say that Kas has never played someone with so many different builds and unparalleled execution at all of them (well, at least not for a year...).

If Kas completely sells out on defense so that he doesn't die, and makes it into the mid-late game with economic parity, then he could have a decent chance. But you have to note that MC is much less one dimensional than he was a year ago, and he plays the late game fairly well, even if it's not as impressive as some of his Korean peers. Still, he's a Code S Korean, and you'd have to imagine that he would be slightly favored against Kas even in pure macro games.

Realistically though, I get the feeling that Kas will think his regular game is up to the task, or that one day is not enough time to try and change things up. He'll go into this game with the tools he has, and we'll get to see if his builds are as tight against MC as they are against his usual foes.

Prediction: MC 3 – 1 Kas


K3.VortiX vs Mill.ForGG

After spending a lot of time under the radar, only talked about among hipster fans as a rising player, Vortix is finally entering the spotlight. After great displays of skill online, including an all-kill of Team Empire (Beastqt, Kas, VINES, Happy, Mista) in IPL TAC, qualification into TSL4, and a closely fought 2 – 3 loss to Keen in the same tournament, Vortix got it done in Cologne, taking third place in a tough group.

fOrGG is the exact opposite, a player who received a huge amount of attention before he even played a single official tournament game. The former MSL champion is a forerunner of the elephants we see now, and though he didn't live up to the massive hype he rode in on, he did qualify for two Code S tournaments while showing a fairly high level of play. Now, he has made a very shrewd move to relocate himself overseas, and thus far things have gone well as he placed third in his international debut at ASUS ROG.

There are two recent series that make me cautiously say that this match-up should be on the upset watch. Vortix narrowly lost to Keen 2 – 3 in TSL4, while fOrGG just barely beat JonnyREcco 3 – 2 at ASUS ROG Summer. While they differed slightly in the details, both series told the story of two foreign zergs with strong late-games being able to trade blows with two Korean Terrans for whom multi-prong attacks are not their strongest suite. fOrGG strength in the all-in department is something VortiX will have to watch out for, but with "The Pretender" favoring such a brute-force approach to late game TvZ, VortiX's chances aren't all that bad. At the very least, I think he'll show us some impressive games.

Prediction: fOrGG 3 – 2 VortiX


RoX.KIS.sLivko vs WW.SortOf

The sole Russian representative at IEM Cologne is none other than Slivko, a player who has quietly become a very familiar sight in the international live tournament circuit. After first showing up at IEM Sao Paulo, he's gone on to participate in both DreamHacks this year, HomeStory Cup V, and now in Cologne. It's not surprising he's been overlooked considering how Stephano and Nerchio have been tearing things up, but with Ro32, Ro16, and Ro8 finishes in top tournaments, Slivko is a player you have to look out for. So far he's performed as expected in Cologne, finishing 4 – 1 in the softest group of the tournament, only losing to Bomber for a 2nd place group finish.

His opponent is another Zerg who's made himself a regular fixture in the live tournament scene in 2012, but this one had the fortune of getting receiving the spotlight, center stage. With victories over SaSe, NaNiwa and ThorZaIN in front of tens of thousands of viewers at WCS Sweden, SortOf is making a case for himself as the best player from Sweden. After his great Ro8 finish at ASUS ROG, it was no great surprise to see him advance from his IEM group over old-guard players like Inori, PuMa, or DeMusliM.

Since this is a ZvZ, it's hard to say who will win the match. Even the stats make it hard to draw a conclusion, as SortOf's 23 – 14 record (a very good 62% win rate) was achieved over a fairly small sample of games, while Slivko has a fairly good record of 141 – 119 (54%) over many more games. It's almost a coin-flip prediction for me, so I'll go with the lone Russian since Swedes have already had their fair share of success in 2012.

Prediction: Slivko 3 – 2 SortOf

by Waxangel

ST_Bomber
vs ROG.elfi OR AZUBU.viOLet

Bomber's a player who is made for the international scene. His mechanics are absolutely insane, and his ability to make more stuff and control it better usually trumps silly things like planning or mind-games. If making money was his goal, he should have made the fOrGG move a long time ago, settling down in the USA or Europe to take down tournament after tournament. Sure, his propensity to choke and throw away stupid games would occasionally cause him to take 2nd or 3rd where he would otherwise would have taken 1st, but that's still a lot of cash.

In the Ro8, Bomber should have zero problems destroying elfi (again) in the case the Finnish player miraculously advances, but a match against viOLet is very dangerous. Bomber's biggest weakness has always been TvZ, where his finesse with infantry and medivacs in TvP just hasn't translated to anything useful. On top of that viOLet is the exact opposite of Bomber in high pressure, elimination series: a killer. He knows how to roll the dice and play mind games, and he has wins over better TvZ players that Bomber to show for it (Polt, MKP).

Prediction 1: Bomber 3 - 0 Elfi
Prediction 2: viOLet 3 - 2 Bomber


Nerchio
vs SK_MC OR Empire|Kas

Besides a minor setback where he lost to DarkForce in TSL4 after coming back from a brief vacation, Nerchio has mostly kept up the momentum he built by winning HomeStory Cup V. His record after that tournament is 38 - 24 (61%), and he has wins over players like Polt and MaNa in that period. His reputation for being a poor player in LANs is long gone, and he advanced from a very tough Ro24 group in first place. Amusingly enough, he managed to defeat all the Koreans in his group (inori, PuMa, fOrGG), while suffering losses to foreigners DeMusliM and SortOf.

Who would Nerchio favor as his Ro8 opponent? Recent results suggest MC could be an easier opponent, as Nerchio looked very much in control in his 3 - 1 victory at HSC V. Against Kas, he's 33 - 37 all time, and he recently lost to him 2 - 3 in their most recent meeting in the RSL (June). However, MC is bound to have changed up his game after losing to both Nerchio and Stephano in tournaments. Whether or not he'll be able to surprise a never-been-better Nerchio is a different question. Expect a very even, macro-war series against Kas, and look out for key adjustments from MC should they meet.

Prediction 1: Nerchio 3 - 2 MC
Prediction 2: Nerchio 3 - 2 Kas


mTw.SuperNova
vs K3.VortiX OR Mill.ForGG

SuperNoVa advanced from the group stage with the best record of any group, going 5 - 0 in series and an incredible 10 - 1 on maps. Admittedly, MC was the only player in the group you'd look at as a championship challenger for the whole tournament, but SuperNoVa mauled him, too. Whatever was holding his gameplay back at his previous IEM appearances in Hannover and Sao Paulo seems to be gone, though he'll probably never stop tweeting about how he misses Korean food.

SuperNoVa already had a taste of VortiX in he group stages, and he'll know he packs a fiery punch. Still, SuperNoVa's combination of drop heavy play, weird banshee builds, and all around unfamiliar play should be too much for VortiX to handle. If he plays ForGG, the match should be extremely close, almost too close to call (58.88% for SuperNoVa vs 58.97% for ForGG! Small sample sizes not withstanding).

Prediction 1: SuperNoVa 3 - 1 VortiX
Prediction 2: SuperNoVa 3 - 2 ForGG


LG-IM_Mvp
vs RoX.KIS.sLivko OR WW.SortOf

With Nestea showing his mortality in the group stages, how afraid should the legend Mvp be of getting eliminated in the Ro8? Most people would look at the names Slivko and SortOf and say that Mvp will certainly make it into the Ro4 at least. But personally, I think the Ro8 is the real test for Mvp, while the Ro4 is the reward that comes after. While all of Mvp's match-ups have suffered some deterioration since his peak, TvT is the match-up where we see the most glimpses of his old brilliance. He'll probably face fOrGG or SuperNoVa, both players he should be able to crush.

His actual style in TvZ hasn't changed much, as he trudges along with a weighty turtle style, but you get the feeling he's held back by his inability to create chaos with drops, or use micro to threaten with mid-game pushes the way other players can.

Slivko and SortOf are players who can smash any mid-game aggression from Terran if it's not executed perfectly, and they're just as happy as Mvp to play for the super-late game. Unlike Nestea, however, they're not going to stack all their units for a handful of seeker missiles. Honestly, I'd rather see Mvp rely on cheese and timing attacks in this series. He could take every game super late, and he certainly could beat them in such games, but he has his wrists to think about. Two seasons ago in the GSL, when he defeated Leenock at the end of a marathon series, he said he couldn't even click correctly due to numbness in his hands. Things can't have gotten better for him since then.

Prediction 1: Mvp 3 - 2 Slivko
Prediction 2: SortOf 3 - 2 Mvp