I'm going to be drunk most of tommorow but if it doesn't start before then I guess It will be fine. Also first game.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
I'm going to be drunk most of tommorow but if it doesn't start before then I guess It will be fine. Also first game. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
| ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
Also I agree with low post count doesn’t mean bad content. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any. To lynch or not to lynch that is the question! But lynching does give information which is something that is normally lacking in the first day. If we didn't lynch then the second day would be much like the first (confusion etc..) But I was watching last game so I know what you mean. Besides the town with bad arguments or the ones that don't post normally get lynched first (or the ones that panic which is understandable) so it's not like we lose a really valuable analyst if we lynch first day. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
okok I get it... about a thousand people explain to me why my idea is bad. Mafia thinks to themselves, "hmm here is something obvious I can post about that wont make me look suspicious." Haha like you can talk. You did just triple post before But maybe Killings responce was pointless considering it was already answered. But on the flip side it does concrete that that is a bad idea and it's his first post of the thread. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
| ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 02 2012 15:50 kushm4sta wrote: Didn't you already do it here? Yeah that is a complete quote not a section of a quote. OH I see now I was removing the JacobStrangelove wrote: part at the start. I'll see if this works. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote: At first I thought kushm4sta looked suspicious, but in the end, I really doubt Mafia would go on such a rampage of careless posts - they would much rather hide and wait for good opportunities. Then there's this post that he just posted: A very proactive post with good reasoning. kushm4sta is looking strongly town to me at the moment. Ha! the ball is starting to roll. I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying. (but it is an amazing tactic{takes notes}) Also he pointed out the long day and the strange wording of Krebs message. Being my first game I completely missed the fact that in a 48 hour day you should be able to get way more than a slight read on anybody. However "closer to the deadline" doesn't mean waiting till the last minute. In other words for not saying much Krebs has almost covered himself with this wording. I guess we should see how long is "closer to the deadline" actually is. Also to thrawn, he probably can't justify it however if he is gone for 15 hours he may as well put a post down on whoever looks the worst. Oh and I didn't have a clue what the reference was and was completely confused. :/ | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 02 2012 19:34 kushm4sta wrote: I'm automatically extra suspicious of you because I think it would be very easy for mafia to hide behind your careful, intellectual playstyle. On another note, we are still awaiting first posts from WeeTee, Kville, and Stutters695. You would hope everyone uses an interlectual playstyle town and mafia though wouldn't you? Not a good reason to be suspicious in my opinion... I think you are just OMGUS-ing each other. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 02 2012 20:18 thrawn2112 wrote: Does your thinking kush and I are omgusing each other mean you have town reads on us? Town until proven otherwise. But I start with everyone as town reads, town is my neutral. From that I balance all the strange/illogical things people say on a scale and whoever starts getting high I look into. I do kinda read Kush as town as (while I have only seen him play one game) it does look kinda similar to how he played last time. As for you completly null at the moment. Also yeah it doesn't justify a vote. (maybe with him sleeping{although sleeping for 15 hours?}) But you have to start somewhere. Also thanks for reminding me about FoS. Now that I think about it that would have been completly more appropriate. For example if he votes now but doesn't do much at the other end of the day I would suspect him a lot. However if at the other end he provides arguments and such/changes vote I would think he is just over enthusiastic. (unless something else strange occurs) | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote: When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them. JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread. Well first I would like to deal with this; I do have a very back in forth style of conversation. One of my strengths/problems I that have a very open minded approach. I don’t work on scum or not scum I work on the probability and likelihood. On September 02 2012 19:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying. This is amplified when there is so little to go on. Also I don’t see much difference between your first post. On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote: Good Morning All, (and Glhf). It has been a bit of a wait but it's nice to be getting started. I don't think no-lynch is a good idea - at the very least a lynch discussion generates some substantive posts that can be analysed later. Without a lynch discussion we will have a tougher time D2, because policy/activity/setup chatter is pretty much a Null read.And ofc, we are aiming to hit scum... And mine On September 02 2012 11:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: I guess part of it comes down to instinct and analysing what you can such as who defends them and why. We both refer to analysis (not just instinct) and another thing I noted If we go back to my other post regarding no lynch (posted before yours) we find this On September 02 2012 12:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: To lynch or not to lynch that is the question! But lynching does give information which is something that is normally lacking in the first day. If we didn't lynch then the second day would be much like the first (confusion etc..) But I was watching last game so I know what you mean. Besides the town with bad arguments or the ones that don't post normally get lynched first (or the ones that panic which is understandable) so it's not like we lose a really valuable analyst if we lynch first day. So we are both talking about the exact same thing. I say second day would be much like the first and right after you say it will be tougher day 2. So I don’t think you can fairly say I have been more or less inactive than you have. The only thing that makes you “less scum” is the fact you posted a list of people you have slight reads on. In your second post after waiting a fairly large amount of time. From your first post I got the impression you just woke up (looking at time zones you are in euro I might be correct) Basic maths not my strong point. (That said you might have had work) Now while this conviction makes you seem more town it’s easy to say you have a scum read on everyone afk such as weetee so this doesn’t put you in any trouble. There is already some tension on Sonic so he is also a safe “weak read” So I do have some reads. These are obviously slight reads but aren’t they all. In order of most scummy. Scum: Killing time: I do read you as scum you post twice one with a very safe set of people to accuse (apart from myself to this point) and you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason. Sonic: I am also unsure about sonic due to the point you brought up regarding him being a fluffy poster as well. That said (I am doing this again I know...) what he said about it fitting everyone in the thread so far also is a sound argument. However my initial scum read was sonic. (due to fluffy posting) only question is why would a sonic Killing time team act this way? Drazak: Looking at his pre-game very active at many different times when game starts almost nothing 3 posts that make almost anyone’s “fluffy posting” look like logical geniuses. Cuba: Lurk factor (just appeared!) Funny he would mention the mafia lurking when he seemed to be lurking But these are only first impressions so we shall see. Townies Xatalos: I think he is providing good solid posts asking questions. Kush: probably town or a really twisted scum. Mostly likely town though as I said in my other post “(I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying.)” Thrawn: Only a very slight town read active ready to throw around accusations etc.. Doesn’t seem like scum behaviour. No clue WeeTee: going to withhold judgment as I have nothing. Killing mentioned that having a fluff entrance post is bad at this time in the discussion but honestly I probably would have entered the same way. Only difference is I would post more after though. Kreb: Maybe a scum read but not enough to put him in there. His “list” is basically just agreeing with everything except the one person that is controversial. Possible Kreb/Killing team? Kville: only post is not lurking just woke up. (you sleep for a while) this does match up actually. If you look at his pregame post Kville United States. August 29 2012 22:00. Posts 99” and his not lurking post “Kville United States. September 02 2012 22:57. Posts 99” Times match up exactly. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 01:22 KillingTime wrote: Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level. Ehh that sounds fair. I more posted that for that clarification. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
| ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote: As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob. I am not sure what you mean by not actively hunting scum. I have been looking at the lurkers pregame posts and finding things that match and things that don’t make sense. For example I rationalised at the time since the Kville posts were so close in time that he had only just started his active online time. However now that he hasn’t posted anything he could very well be a panicking mafia. If he just woke up you would assume he would post by now. (also did the same with Drazak but in this case got suspicion however he said he just woke up and it would take a few hours) But in this case Cuba is defiantly more mafia than Kville is. Because you would assume a mafia would at least post something slightly substantial to try and get “posting points” Cuba fits this bill nicely. He posted a practically useless post about numbers and saying we should lynch the lurkers. He is a lurker himself however if he is going with a strategy of lynch the person who lurks the most then obviously all he needs to do is post more than they do. If such a strategy occurred that might be 2 or so free kills for mafia before he is lynched (bussed or whatever you call it) and by that time mafia would have a really good chance of winning. (Assuming the mafia maintain a fairly active stance). On September 03 2012 07:43 KillingTime wrote: Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did. I don't have any more scumhunting to offer at the moment though so I will nod off and see what the morning brings. So you are saying it’s safe to put you as scum xD But there might be a difference between safe and obvious. Such as Cuba. You are slowly working back to town on my list but I am still not convinced. Just seemed like how I would play mafia. I would be far less likely to fluff post due to being accused of fluff posts (can’t have fun *sob* people to kill *sob*) Ok so kush is back! (and the games begin) (btw I would argue that maths isn’t part of universal laws of nature but to avoid wish wash I won’t{the concept behind... oh never mind}) So it seems the focus is on cuba/drazak. This seems a logical approach due to both lurkers not posting anything of worth or hardly anything at all. Drazak sleeps at strange hours (Which I completely understand) but it is still odd. Most of what I have is circumstantial evidence. Also he is inactive in other threads. Cuba is now a higher scum read than killing is. Although I admit I might have a slight bias against someone with killing in his name. Writing this I seem to have forgotten about Kreb, I haven’t noticed anything unusual about him it seems. Responded well to his attacker/s and such. I am far more likely to town read WeeTee now, he has posted more listed reasons(more so than most lurkers to the point where he isn’t lurking). Also a good reason for thinking kreb is town. Putting yourself on a list probably raises your town credit (I just thought it was amusing at the time) However if people start doing it now it won’t change anything. On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote: anddd kush and thrawn are here! If you guys were a scum team I'd facepalm I dream of the day when Kush and Thrawn roll mafia together. The way they act would just be... perfect. So in short I am ehing and mehing over killing. Very convinced something is odd about cuba mostly convinced about Drazak. Towning WeeTee and everyone else have dropped off the radar. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? Lynching the lurkers who have posted completly nothing is 50-50 could be bored town could be terrified mafia or terrified town you never know. You however are lurking (only one post longer than one line and that post is just statistics) and if you read what I wrote. I explain why you are a better choice. (than kville who I assume you are reffering to{but also not pick a lurker to lynch!}) You are not being decisive (you say lynch the lurkers.) What lurkers? Do you not want to be connected to the lynch? Sounds like scum to me. You have plenty of time to prove me wrong though. While lynching active members is more 25% chance or whatever (not going to go into the maths) you aren't exactly what I would call active. So in lynching you we ARE lynching a lurker. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba Sorry about that. Just habit I guess. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 14:42 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: So what's the concensus on list-making? I was the one promoting lists in the first place, I thought it was a good idea. Stutter's point a valid but I feel like it's just as easy, if not easier, to hide behind a wall-of-text. Some wall-of-text posters (I'm looking at you Strangelove), seems post reads even on players he has no reads on. Not necessarily scummy, but it doesn't help us. If you have reads you think are good there's no reason to drown them out by filling your post out with "non-reads". I'll have to admit the list idea didn't pan out the way I had hoped though. Hold on a second first I get accused of being wishy washy then when I change (as the game develops and more information comes out) I get accused of making lists then when I get told that is easy to do I change and I get accused of making walls of text? If I wasn't to write anything I would be accused of lurking... Everyone has a style they can hide behind, why not both. Have lists have walls of texts. (btw this is nowhere near the kind of walls of text I would normaly produce) I do like a little flavour in my posts... Also I did mention non reads incase people asked me about "what do you think of x person" This shouldn't be a reason for an accusation or suspicion. (see second last paragraph) It seems like I am getting set up for a day two or three lynch. My reasoning behind this is I seem to being baselessly accused in a by the by manner so when they get the opportunity people will remember me as someone suspicious. Also to Kush yeah Sonic I and Killing are actually fairly close in play style, this is probably why we don't trust each other at all. That said going out to uni will be back in several hours. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
Kville I find hard to believe would be mafia. Posting twice? Could be a great bluff strategy but honestly I think he got into the game and thought. Ahh who cares. That said he isn’t useful in the game unlike Drazak. Although apparently his previous activity was high in other mafias. I haven’t got time to check that and it was coming from Drazak but interesting to consider. Drazak: I maybe biased towards the one person who thinks I am town but he seems more like a mildly scared town (as opposed to a really scared mafia see Cubu) Most of it is vibe based however as he said if we lynch him we have less to go on than if we don’t. So leaving him in the game at least temporarily is more useful So I would vote (and probably will before bed unless a good argument comes up) Cubu first. Cubu: Need I say more? Could be a scared town but he reacted so horribly. Most likely an inexperienced mafia. Oh and about WeeTee. I would be hesitant to lynch him because his game activity last game was similar and he got lynched as town. So I will probably vote Cubu, Kville, Drazak. Unless one of the others or cubu comes in with a perfect argument I don’t see this changing much. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him. To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone. This is a great point however. At least after somebody gets lynched we will have a lot to work with. But I did think the sudden change was a bit much but it was explained in a resonable manner. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
Also what about stutters? I forgot him, in what ever case the more information argument comes in. Stutters as provided something more than both. So more likely to have more to work with day two. I'll watch a movie and be back, need time to think about it. | ||
JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
| ||
| ||