Hero Usage TI2 (Basically hero tiers)

. I've honestly not watched very many games because well, group stages, lack of time, too many games. I'll probably go back and watch highlights or recommended games. but with these stats I want to review where hero usage is standing currently and generally ask if people think these drafts/tiers will remain the same for the rest of the tournament. Remember that the Mouz vs WE qualifier bo3 is counted into these stats.

These tiers are as of the end of group stage matches before the playoffs. I will update this thread in the future if I have time. If you want to skip directly to tier listing then search for T11
My source and methodology:
http://dota-academy.com/tournament/58/ (If you really don't want to be spoiled scroll rapidly to the bottom). Much thanks goes to the administrators of this site (I see them post on TL occasionally), it's always fascinating. I chose to use the pick + ban statistic because it reveals the overall drafting value of the hero more than their simple ban, pick, or win% does. Just because clinkz has a 67% winrate doesn't mean much, he's only been in 6 games, nor does it tell you much to know that Veno is the most picked hero and Naga the most banned. Telling you that DS is the most picked + banned hero even over Naga may surprise some but this statistic reveals more nuanced details about drafting than the others.

On the Bottom tier and what some of these stats mean :

Currently there are 90 heroes in the pool.

27 heroes have been picked or banned in less than 9 games. The winrate on one of these heroes is enough for it to stand out (Puck is 7 for 7) but it's safe to say that the vast majority these heroes are not going to be factors in most games. (Clinkz also has a decent winrate of 0.63. Luna is also 3 for 3 and Mirana 2 for 3). These tiers are always going to have the most picked/banned at the top and then go in decreasing order. These 27 heroes make up the bottom tier. (There are also 25 heroes not used at all so far listed at the bottom of this post)

(Consider that there have been 112 + 3 games played and each game allows for 10 bans and 10 picks, meaning 1150 bans total and 1150 picks total. The maximum number of times a hero could be banned is the same as the number of games played. Although I believe some games were forfeited). So the total number of available picks + bans is 2300. No hero can exceed 115 in value for picks + bans because a hero can't be picked multiple times in a game. So the value of any hero in the bottom group of heroes is at most 9/2300, or .0039%. Taken together they add up to 4% of total picks and bans used in the entire tournament so far. If all heroes were being picked equally they would be 30% the picks/bans, they're less than 1/7 of what would be expected. I'll list the total pick/ban % possible used on each tier after listing the value range. Most of the tiers are about 30 in range except for the very top one.
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Tiers (T11)

From here on I'm listing from top tier to bottom tier to make it easier to see the relative value of heroes to team's minds. Every tier goes from most banned/picked to lowest. An * means that I commented about the hero or that their winrate is significantly below or above 50%. The % after the tier listing is the percentage of total bans/picks possible that were used on that tier.

A tier

The 101 - 114 tier (38% possible picks/bans used, 874)
Dark Seer*
Naga Siren*
Rubick
Leshrac
Lycan*
Chen
Nature's Prophet
Invoker

Naga was banned 105 times and only played 7, and only won 2. Lycan was banned 97 times but had a more respectable 8/13 winrate. DS received 88 bans and went 16/26. NP has a 45% winrate and Invoker a 48% winrate. , the only heroes in this pool whose winrates were below 50% besides Naga. Rubick has an extremely high winrate for being banned so rarely (62%, same as DS and Lycan but Rubick was in 58 games. Lesh in 62 but still at 56% winrate).

B Tier:
Now 95-60 (28.7%, 661)
Enchantress*
Tidehunter
Venomancer
Broodmother*
Morphling*
Syllabear
Tinker*
Brewmaster


This tier merits a lot of commentary : Brood has a truly pathetic winrate being 6/22 but is still one of the most banned heroes in the game at 66. Morphling has the highest winrate in this tier at 59% but one of the lowest numbers of bans at 30, suggesting that teams should probably ban him more. Tinker has only been in 19 (won 8) games but has received 50 bans. Enchantress, Tide, Veno all could be bumped to the next tier if it was lowered to include 92 games but it's just a gut call on my decision to make the A tier 100 and above. Enchantress is banned 53 times and 18/42 when actually picked (a winrate barely better than tinker). Tide sees 41 bans and 51 picks (25 wins) but Veno only 28 bans, making him one of the most picked heroes with a positive winratio (34/64).


C tier (Situational) 59-31 (20.78%, 478)

Enigma*
Sandking
Windrunner
Chaos Knight
Bounty Hunter*
Shadow Demon*
Beast Master
QoP*
Shadow Shaman
Storm Spirit
Anti-mage

Enigma is played more often than Brewmaster and receives similar numbers of bans (30 vs 34), but has a lower winrate (.38 vs .50). I almost want to move Enigma up but the B tier is too crowded already. SD/QoP have winrates significantly below 50% (38% and 40%). BH has a 60% winrate, the highest of any hero picked as often as him besides Rubick and DS.

D tier (Highly Situational)- 10-23 (5.9% 136)

Wisp
TemplarAssassin*
NightStalker*
Earthshaker
Pudge
Crystal Maiden*
Tiny
KotL*
VS

NS has a winrate of 33% and has only been banned a total of 6 times (picked 12 won 4). TA, CM, KOTL all boast 67% winrates (CM and TA have both been in 12 games, KOTL only 9). Note that even though this tier only has 9 heroes it still has been used more than all 27 of the bottom tier

Bottom tier <9 picks/bans (4% of total possible picks/bans used in this tier, 101 picks/bans, 66 in top half)
Clinkz
Lina
Puck
Disruptor
Lich
Ancient Apparition
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
Luna
****
4 or less Pick/ban (bottom of bottom tier, 35)
Dazzle
Death Prophet
Juggernaut
Mirana
Phantom Assassin
Visage
Weaver
Axe
Outworld Destroyer
Riki
Alchemist
Bane
Pugna
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
Spiritbreaker
Witch Doctor

******

My predictions :

For the Bottom Tier and D tier :

Puck, and TA are being undervalued and are likely to move up tiers or at least in usage. CM may be used more often but is unlikely to change tiers as it's really rare for her to be banned. Luna, Batrider may also see more usage.

For C Tier:
Morphling is likely to see more bans. Shadow Demon is likely to fall further out of favor, though I do not think the same can be said of QoP (who is generally picked by players who have extensive experience with her mid and fulfills a role that's hard to replicate, unlike SD who can be replaced with a generic support). Syllabear may move up in tier once the Chinese teams begin to face each other. Enigma is likely to see less use due to his low winrate (the lowest after Broodmother and Naga for a commonly picked/banned hero). This tier is likely to be the one to see the most change given the low winrates of heroes within it and above it, and high winrates of heroes in and below it. BH is also being undervalued some.

For B tier :
Broodmother is being extremely over-banned, it seems that most teams have figured her out (though I admit that she may have such a low winrate due to being banned so frequently). Enchantress is likely to see slightly less play but teams will continue to use her to try to counter Chen.

For A Tier:
Rubick is going to start receiving bans. Naga may receive slightly less but there is a reason she has so many bans. Lycan and DS are probably going to remain roughly where they are. (All 3 of these heroes have in common the fact that they're extremely annoying to play against).