[Up/Down] Group D Preview

[Editor's note: Everyone say hi to Porcelina, who is trialing as a writer!]

*Group C has been rescheduled to August 31st (Fri). Read the details at GomTV.net.


6. MVP.Vampire

Vampire is hard to judge, because there is little to judge Vampire by. He made it into Up and Downs from beating BBoongBBoong4 2-1 in round of 32 in last season’s Code A before falling by the same score to Suhosin. Given B4’s complete lack of anything resembling success against Protoss, it is hard to figure out what to make out of that particular run. Furthermore, in GSL S2 Code A he was defeated in the first round by Yugioh. The good news is that PvP is statistically his strongest matchup, which should come in handy in this three Protoss group. It's best of one, and even the reigning WCS champion Creator might drop a game in that setting.

He has a good chance against the Terrans, but in the end, there is a definite feeling of ‘not being quite ready for Code S competition’ about Vampire. Of course, there is no time like the present to make a good showing and to assert his strength, but it is hard to see how that would come about. Coming into this with a history of being relatively strong against Protoss, fair against Terran and not great against Zerg, I would say that he has been fortunate with the group selection, but the gap in skill between the bottom four and the top two makes it very hard to predict Vampire making his first splash into Code S.

5. LG-IM_Happy

Honestly, the ordering of the bottom four in this ranking is just difficult to figure out. Happy has the talent, has the potential and has the history to be a contender. However, he looked very weak indeed in WCS, losing to Tails and being outclassed by Reality was not a good lead-in to the Up and Downs.

The good news: He has a few things going for him in terms of match-ups (as opposed to nothing). While Happy's recent TvT is not looking good, Supernova is the kind of TvT player he could very well beat in a best of one. Stylistically being quite middle of the road could net him a win against a player known for his over-aggression. However, if the games he showed against Tails in WCS Korea were any indication, he will have a hard time getting anything out of his three TvPs in this group. I would almost want to pin him on having three different cheeses to fight off that particular demon – though he might be able to take on Vampire straight up. But Killer is strong in PvT and Creator is a potential Code S championship contender. He has a chance, but a lot of things have to come together.

4. coL.Killer

While he is clearly a step above the ‘JYP against Terran’ level of competence in his PvP, the Protoss mirror is still a problem for Killer. While there's certainly a chance he could get by without beating any of the Protoss players in this group, it would make it a heck of a lot easier if he could go 1-1 at least.

His PvT will have to be as strong if he wants to make a splash in this group. Killer plays a typical safe, solid deathball style of play, which is good enough to beat most Terrans at the sub Code S level. Happy could be easy pickings, but SuperNoVa presents a much trickier challenger Traditionally a master of one and two base all-ins in Pvt, SuperNoVa recently showed some very strong standard-ish TvP against MC at IEM Cologne, using his trademark harassment and multi-tasking to pick apart the exiled President. Killer could beat SuperNoVa if he forces him into straight up, 200 vs 200 deathball fights, but he might not survive to reach that point.

For Zerg he only has to prepare for Yugioh, which is still a dicey proposition. Having the game be played on Whirlwind further adds to the mystery of that particular game. Yugioh does very strange things, and it makes sense that a map with such a low count of recorded games there could be some new, unorthodox play. If it goes into a standard game, I would think that Killer would have a very good shot, in which case this group is starting to look like a hurdle Killer could overcome.

3. SlayerS_YugiOh

At this point in time, Yugioh is the most volatile player in the group. Whereas Happy looked sloppy and unprepared for WCS Korea, Yugioh looked desperate, nervous and crushed. I guess Blue-Eyes White Dragon’s trap card is elephants, as it was for many other GomTV players.

So I guess the first positive point is that there are no KeSPA players involved. On paper, Yugioh seems the most likely to break into the top two of the players listed so far, both based on previous GSL results and an evaluation of his strength overall. The question of form and current mindset are unknown factors, but we can surmise that they are not at a peak right now.

YuGiOh is a strange player, not averse to planting proxy hatches at your opponent’s natural, morphing considerable quantities of Banelings and amassing more Mutalisks than you can shake a stick at (it is not very effective, shaking a storm is better but also takes some time getting used to). A lot of Yugioh’s success and his splendiferous reign as King of Code A can be attributed to his strange play that leads to some very scrappy games. By eschewing standard timings in favor of chaos, YuGiOh forces situations where he can defeat his opponents with his superior game sense in his natural environment.

The king has been on a steady upward path for the past few seasons, and it would be taking a step back to fail to qualify for Code S again. However, given his recently shaky play, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the king forced to stay content with his reign in Code A.

2. mTw.SuperNova

Supernova needs this. He needs to qualify for Code S in order to get his hands on the Nestea award for ten consecutive seasons in Code S. The good news is that he has found himself a group he should be well suited for. It also helps that it is a very divided group, where the top two on paper sit on a wide skill gap not seen in any of the other groups.

The bad news is that Supernova’s worst enemy is Supernova. He looked superb at IEM Cologne until he messed up pretty badly against the Spanish Zerg Vortix. He looked good at Campus Party in Berlin, earning more money than what I would imagine is standard university tuition in Germany. Specifically, his TvP is beautiful. I know that all the rage is about Taeja and MKP, but honestly I cannot think of a scarier TvP player when he is on form. His dismantling of MC in Cologne was nothing short of brutal, but unlike a lot of TvP wonders, he has shown a remarkable aptitude in this matchup over time. Multitasking, both in drops and banshee harass as well as Ghost control are areas where his expertise has to be recognized.

His one off matchups, a TvZ against Yugioh and a TvT against Happy look a bit more uncertain. Not perhaps in terms of outcome, but rather in that it is harder to see Supernova’s relative strength. In Cologne and Berlin, his vZ looked good until he goofed up his late game management. Versus Yugioh, I think that will be the tale of the game altogether; if he plays his standard game and does not make huge mistakes, I have him at a clear advantage. Against Happy it will be more of the same. Frenetic dropping isn't always the best way to play TvT, but SuperNoVa has shown he can play standard TvT very effectively (and thus somewhat boringly), and he should be able to beat happy in one way or another.

1. CreatorPrime

At the top we have the undisputed favorite to take the group. Even before WCS Korea, there was this group would have been called a toss-up between Supernova and Creator, and his status as Korean champion clears the way for him as the gigantic favorite in this group.

The question is whether the usual ‘the next tournament after a Code S Championship will always be rough’ rule stands in this case as well. Has it been broken by Seed? Does it even count if it is not really a Code S? We shall soon find out.

As of right now, it is hard to find any faults with Creator’s play in any specific matchup. If anything, his PvT has not looked quite as strong as the others, though it was the match-up he first gained fame for. His style of choice - the 1 Gate expand into 3 Gate Robo followed by Twilight and single/double Forge - has become pretty much standard play, and Terran have learned to adjust for the all around security and strength it gives. On the other hand, he was never a player who needed build order advantages to win PvT. He has a very good PvT mind, his macro is out of this world, and he has to come in as a major favorite against Happy and perhaps a slight one against Supernova.

Creator should outclass the only Zerg in his group. Yugioh is not on a Curious level of play, and even Curious was playing almost to his peak level when he last handed Creator a PvZ loss. Having to deal with the potential situation of having non-standard timings should not be the worst problem in the world, Creator’s core mechanics should be enough to see Yugioh off, whether he chooses to all-in off two bases or destroy him with a pre-hive push.

Finally, if WCS Korea taught us anything at all it is that Creator’s PvP is world class. Given that Killer has historically poor PvP and Vampire has never beaten anyone close to Creator’s caliber in the matchup, it would be a shock if he lost either match had it not been for a Bo1 format. PvP is PvP is PvP, so anything can happen, the question is whether losing to either Killer or Vampire belongs within the set of anything.

Overall Outlook

Places six through three are hard to place. The six players rank themselves in a fairly straightforward manner, but the pure variance of the game contained in a Bo1 format, the head-to-head tie-breaker format, coupled with shaky information on Vampire, poor play by Yugioh and Happy in their last tournament and the wild card known as Killer means anything could happen.

I cannot realistically see Vampire making it out, nor can I see Happy having a good shot at it. Yugioh and Killer are a bit better off. If Yugioh can shake his nerves, shake his doubts and return to form, he could easily take a map off Supernova and then mop up the rest sans Creator. Likewise, if Killer can defeat Vampire, he can just take a loss or a lucky win against Creator and play solidly against the other players with whom he is not outmatched. With a few maps going his way in the other matches, it would not be difficult to envision him taking a spot in Code S.

In the end, Supernova and Creator should be fundamentally stronger than the competition. Their matchup against each other will give breathing room to the winner. Looking at the map being Atlantis Spaceship it would lend itself to Creator having an edge there. This will be their second game of the group and will put a lot of pressure on the loser, especially if either somehow loses his first game. The structure of the group means that an upset could happen in a situation where one of the favorites find themselves at 1-1 and nerves start to enter the picture, in which case it will be up to one of the underdogs to compound the pressure and make a real run for it.