[Up/Down] Group C/E Preview - Group D recap

Results from Live report thread by opterown.
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Return to Happiness
- After an almost year long slump, Happy advances first out of the group with a 4-1 record, giving LG-IM a league high five players in Code S.

He was given the nickname MiniVP when he broke through in his royal road season of Code S, going undefeated all the way until the semifinals where he was finally taken out 3-1 by eventual champion MMA. He wasn't only able to make a strong impression on the fans with his amazing first run in Code S, but he brought innovative TvZ play and displayed strong mech play like his teammate Mvp. Truth be told, between him and Mvp that tournament, Happy played MMA better than his champion teammate, and gave the Slayers Terran a run for his money to make it to the finals. With an outstanding opening campaign, there was no reason why he couldn't dream of stepping on a finals stage and raising his own trophy.

Never happened.

Happy would do decently in the next Code S season, getting out of the first round and getting to his second straight round of sixteen. Unfortunately, that would be the last time he would get that far in Code S. The next season, he got beat by Killer and Oz, fell into Code A, and has been on the edge of Code A and S since then. This was his second Up/Down group in his past three seasons, and he didn't come in with the same expectations as he once held.

With a 1-3 record last time he played in the Up/Down matches, losing to Supernova, Boxer and July, he came in hoping that this time would be a reversal of fortunes. Against Creator (coincidentally, the only player he beat the last time he was in an Up/Down group), things got off to a rock start. Getting beaten down by the champion of WCS Korea, the night had a pessimistic start for the former Code S semifinalist. With the two favorites coming in being Supernova and Creator, Happy was going to have to pull off an amazing next four games to get through.

That did happen.

Happy would go on a four game winning streak to to top his group and advance into Code S. Reverting back to rookie Happy, the one with so much promise, he demonstrated why while he might have had a bad start to 2012, he could still make it up in the final two GSL tournaments of the year. With some good drop play and nicely placed EMP's against Vampire, and a nicely done bio rush with bunkers against the Killer, he was able to dispose of the two other Protoss in the group without much of a sweat.

Displaying his dominating TvZ play, that is still 70% in Korea even through his slump, he took out YuGiOh and put himself in a great position to advance. Earlier in the night against Supernova, he got through one of the two favorites in the group by channeling his inner BitByBit and pulling SCV's along with his hellion drop. Breaking through after a tightly contested battle, he got out of the game with a win and didn't look back.

Now back in Code S, you have to ask yourself what we should expect from Happy this season. At best, a quarterfinal appearance could be feasible, but with how stacked the line-up is for this Code S, if Happy doesn't play his absolute best, he could find himself back in the Up/Down groups for a third time in four seasons. The main storyline for MinVP this season might be a new found rivalry against his Terran teammate, Yoda.

Yoda got through Code A without a single loss, got praised by Mvp, being called the best player on LG-IM, and has dreams of becoming a royal roader, something Happy was close to becoming last August. For Happy to keep his moniker of the MinVP, and second best Terran on LG-IM, he needs to place better than his teammate this season. Yoda might have the new car smell to him, coming into his first season with an undefeated Code A hype, but don't count out Happy to continue his revival.

Reliability 101
- mTw.SuperNova wins the tiebreaker over CreatorPrime and MVP.Vampire, claiming his 9th straight season in Code S. Creator, the WCS Korea champion, falls to Code A for the fourth season.

Supernova taught us that while Creator might have been the sexier pick, winning WCS Korea last week in comeback fashion against Squirtle, that he is Mr. Reliable and will never disappoint you. Every time a new Code S begins, come Code A, Up/Down or whatever qualifier he needs to get through, Supernova will be there, chomping at the bit to finally, after a million seasons, make it to the semifinals and have a chance to make a final. His road to his ninth Code S wasn't pretty, having to fight through a deadly three-way tiebreak for second place in the group, but he got out of it with his ticket to the all-star dance next week. Creator, who had all the momentum in the world coming into this Up/Down group, couldn't seal the deal against Supernova in their tiebreaker game, and watched his hopes of being Code S champion slip through his fingers.

Happy's resurgence made it that only one of Supernova and Creator could make it through, and Supernova showed everyone why he is a master of survival. Creator, in his second Up/Down group of all-time, tasted defeated for a second time. In his first time in the Up/Downs, he went 2-2, beating July and Boxer. The two people he lost to? Happy and Supernova, the two people who climbed over him into Code S this season. Now with his Code A placement confirmed for the fourth season, Creator has a few weeks to prepare for another shot at getting into the premiere GSL tournament. With WCS Asia also coming up and a spot in the Global Finals already earned, Creator's eyes will be on trying to become the first WCS Global champion, and make people forget all about his failure in not getting out of this group.

Supernova will be trying to make it to the quarterfinals, earning his tenth straight season in Code S, and receiving the Nestea award for longevity in Code S. With a new team in mTw and not having to worry about financial problems any longer, he should have a clear mind entering the season. The fourth season of Code S 2012 might be the most difficult in the history of the GSL, but Supernova has experience on his side. A quarterfinal appearance might get him the Nestea award, but the real trophy Supernova wants is currently in the possession of Seed.

So Now What?
- Vampire, Killer, and YuGiOh all fail to qualify for Code S.

MVP.Vampire: He came into this Up/Down group with no expectations. Barely anyone knew who he was outside of his infamous game last season against Line. Now, with an admirable performance in the Up/Down group, even causing a tiebreak between him and the two favorites of the group, he's a player who could go any-which direction. He might be a player who is doing well on the heels of the new Protoss dominance in Korea, or he could be a player that just needs more booth experience to show his true potential. He has a Code A spot for next season, so we'll keep our eyes close on this blood sucking Protoss and see how far he can go.

SlayerS_YugiOh: King in the Code A! King in the Code A! King in the Code A! I have lost count in how many seasons YuGiOh has been in Code A, but with his recent performances in WCS Korea and now this Up/Down group, the King's place in his kingdom might not last for long. If he is drawn against one of the four KeSPA players who received Code A seeds, there is a 50/50 chance that YuGiOh will forfeit and flee the country from fear of losing to another elephant. It seems unthinkable that YuGiOh might actually fall out of Code A, but if he doesn't improve over the next three weeks, it could happen.

coL.Killer: Killer went 0-5. The only other player in history who went 0-5 in the Up/Down groups was BumblebeePrime. After going 0-5, he apparently left Prime, vanished from the universe, and is now in some different dimension trying to end the shame of going 0-5 in his Up/Down group. Let's hope the same doesn't happen to Killer.

Top two advance to Code S

Group E: AZUBU.viOLet, FnaticRC Oz, SlayerS_Ryung, ST_Life, Quantic.TheStC

Welcome to the group of death. Each of these five players would have been a strong candidate to top any of the other four Up/Down groups, yet somehow fate has cruelly conspired to lump them all together. Every single player here is Code S level at the very least, and all of them could threaten to make a deep run. The margin between these players is paper thin, and any two could emerge victorious on the night. Take these predictions with a grain of salt!


5. ST_Life

With fellow online terrors Creator and TaeJa finally making a serious impact in the Starcraft II scene, you'd think it's about time the Zerg member of the trinity, ST_Life, also made his presence felt. We already got a glimpse of what he can do in the GSTL (9 – 2 record) and in TSL4 (semi-finalist) where he's defeated a ton of quality opponents (HerO, CoCa, Crank, MMA, Curious, Kas). Is there any reason he can't replicate those performances the Up/Downs, and then Code S?

Yeah, there is. The golden rule of Starcraft II prediction is to never assume a player will do well the first time he is playing in a new type of tournament. You can only extrapolate so much from Life's great GSTL performances, as WCS Korea showed that even players who have played dozens of games in the GomTV booths can crumble when facing new kinds of pressure. This is Life's first Up/Down match experience in his life, and there's no knowing how he will be mentally. There's a minor chance that he'll be a natural, devour the pressure, and burst out with monstrous games. On the other hand, he could also crash and burn. That's too much uncertainty to pick him to progress from this stacked group.

4. FnaticRC Oz

After putting in his quarterly fourth place performance at MLG Summer Arena, Oz predictably slumped. He barely played any games at IEM Cologne and MLG Raleigh before getting eliminated without a trace. PvP proved to be his Achilles heel yet again, with Grubby and Killer combining to toss him out of both tournaments. Luckily for Oz, there aren't any Protoss players in this group, but his recent downswing is worrisome nonetheless. He even lost to Rain (the one from Fnatic RC) and Targa in that stretch – not opponents prospective Code S players should be losing to.

One thing going for him is that our Code S voodoo fortune telling predicts that he should do well this season. Oz' current Code S ranking progress goes: Ro4 – Ro16 – Ro8 – Ro32. According to that, he should at least make Ro16 this season. Hey, we haven't done so well with predicting Oz in the past, can you blame us for looking for new methods?

3. SlayerS_Ryung

SlayerS' new Terran ace returns to Korea after a so-so MLG Raleigh performance. It was typical Ryung, where he beat everyone he was 'supposed' to (non-Stephano foreigners, Rain and Puma), and lost to everyone he was supposed to as well (Stephano, HerO, TaeJa). He played one of his "why isn't this guy a Code S champion?" games he shows infrequently, although unfortunately it came against PuMa (a ridiculous, hour long TvT on Entombed) instead of against an opponent he needed to upset.

When he's playing at his highest level, Ryung is probably the best player in the group. He out-managed DRG on Whirlwind in the previous Code S, and he completely outplayed Mvp the season before that (though Mvp did the same to him in the revenge-match). However, such a tepid performance at MLG Raleigh has taken a lot of the luster off of him. Third place seems appropriate for such a middle of the road results from him at his most recent tournament.

2. Quantic.TheStC

I'm not really sure how it keeps happening, but I still manage to be a bit surprised every time a less noticeable Code S player comes into a foreign tournament and destroys everyone. Hmmm, they only managed to qualify for the toughest tournament in the entire world, who knew they'd do well at a much softer international tournament? Anyhow, with SuperNoVa taking Campus Party and TheStC finishing Tie-4th at MLG, we've now had our mandatory reminder for Q3 2012 after everyone forgot about aLive winning IPL4 by now.

TheStC was excellent all around at Raleigh, and he actually scored wins over three players in this group (viOLet, Oz, and Ryung). On the TvZ side he did show some trouble handling Leenock's super aggressive, "I'll never hive" style of play, which might trouble him against Life and viOLet. But all around, he just showed solid, standard Terran play, and he has momentum coming into this group.

1. AZUBU.viOLet

At one point viOLet seemed unsure on whether or not he would even be competing in the Up/Downs. Looking at it from his perspective, it didn't really make a lot of sense. At worst, he would get knocked out of the Up/Down group of death and waste time and money flying to Korea. At best, what more did he have to prove? He already beat Oz, Mvp, and Maru in his Ro16 run last season, and if he hadn't been in the Ro16 group of death (Mvp, Seed, TaeJa), he could have made the Ro8. His wins in international tournaments weren't just big fish, small pond deals; he proved he could get it done in his homeland as well.

So why come back? Unlike other Koreans viOLet has a choice. He can make better money traveling the international circuit and playing in other tournaments, while not having to deal with transpacific flights and GSL scheduling conflicts. There's only one reason viOLet could have consciously chosen this path: he wants to win it all in the toughest tournament in the world.*

*Unless he's not actually competing in Up/Downs after all? In that case, redact everything.



Group C: FnaticRC aLive, ST_Suhosin, MaruPrime, Liquid`HerO, TSL_Shine

5. ST_Suhosin

Suhosin, former known as Line, is probably the most successful all-inner of this day and age. Starting off as a fairly good macro player in 2011, he's turned into a strange caricature of a player, refusing to go hive and doing some kind of all-in in almost every single game. This trend has become more severe as more time has passed, which makes the fact that his actual results are getting better all the more perplexing. Having never made Code S in his entire career, he managed to break into the Ro32 last season, only to get instantly eliminated. I swear, if he was sent to a DreamHack, he'd probably find a way to win it all. In any case, common sense says that Suhosin is far too predictable to place anything but last... but seeing as he defies common sense on a regular basis, I'm fully prepared to eat my words.

4. TSL_Shine

Shine's made his first major blip on our radar when he scored a 3-kill against FXO in the previous GSTL season. Since then, he's shown us a few more good series that suggest he could be following in the steps of Symbol. No, not his wins against AcE and Virus in Code A - that's the bare minimum you should have to do to get into the Up/Downs. He actually impressed us the most by barely losing to Polt and TaeJa in three game series, in Code A and TSL4 qualifiers respectively. It's hard to say he'll do well in this group based off just those glimpses, but at least from what we saw, he was able to go toe-to-toe with some of the best TvZ players in the world. This being Shine's first time in the Up/Downs, we doubt he'll be able to bring 100% of his regular skill, but he's still worth looking out for.

3. MaruPrime

Maru is a player who makes me very wary. We at TL were all to eager to jump on the bandwagon when he broke into the Code S Ro16 at the age of fourteen, but the Korean scene didn't seem so impressed. In fact, the way everyone jumped over each other to pick him in the Ro16 group selections, and the way DRG went for him as his first pick in the ro32 make me wonder if he's just a very lucky player who played above his head for a short stretch. His results seem to have regressed to a fairly average level since then, which lends credence to this theory. We all love the idea of the prodigy, but I'll be approaching this group with some added skepticism.

2. FnaticRC aLive

The new Invisible Terran lived up to the moniker at MLG Raleigh, quietly going out in Tie-12th place after losing to Leenock and TaeJa. Considering those were some of the best players at Raleigh, it's really not so much of a blemish on aLive's record. It's always temping to overlook aLive due to his mystical spotlight repellent, but invariably he shows up with a quiet but stern "remember me?" game just as you think it's safe to write him off.

1. Liquid`HerO

The HerO Gom needs has had a quietly great stretch, beating Effort, Reality, Polt, Soulkey, in WCS while finishing top eight and above in his last few international tournaments. He probably could have reached the finals in a couple of them as well, if he didn't keep getting team-killed by TaeJa. PvP, TaeJa, and forfeits have been HerO's biggest weaknesses in the last few weeks, and without any of those present in his group, no one in this group sticks out as a clear threat. aLive, Maru, and Suhosin have shown a propensity to shrewdly all-in for important games, but HerO's nerves and micro have continuously improved when facing those scenarios. Even if HerO can't play extremely well, this is a group he should be able to grind his way through barring an unlikely choke.