[Code S] Ro32 Group B Preview/A Recap (S4)

Results from Live report thread by opterown.
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Seed Survives
- The defending GSL champion advances first in the group, but by a narrower margin than expected.

LG-IM_Seed started where he left off last season. Yet again, his games weren't pretty, but he got the job done in the end. His title defense didn't start with a 2-0 mauling of ST_SuHoSin like most thought would happen, but the champion showed his resiliency, taking out the Startale Zerg and ST_PartinG by 2-1 scorelines to get out of his group in first place.

The night started out like you would have expected. SuHoSin went for a wacky but brilliant fast-drop strategy, but wasn't able to execute it well enough. Seed defended nicely, and with the part-time gamer not being able to get the most out of his inventive strategy, the IM Protoss took an easy first game victory. Starting the second game on GSL's new map Abyssal City, Seed was caught off guard by Suhosin's surprise strategy: standard play. Suhosin played a brilliant back-stabbing style on the new map, running circles around Seed by exploiting the map's multiple routes to their fullest.

Losing on the second map to the player thought of as by far the weakest of the thirty-two players in this season's tournament, Seed kept composed and finished him off on Daybreak. SuHoSin continued to impress, reverting back to his Super Tournament style where he continually made muta after muta, harassing the main and natural of his opponent, and killing off 100 of Seed's probes. The problem was that like most outdated strategies, SuHoSin never actually transitioned from making mutas and had no answer for Seed's death ball at the end of the game. It didn't matter that Seed lost a hundred probes because even without a superior economy, SuHoSin's army composition of 30+ mutas couldn't stand a chance against Seed's templars and stalkers.

Getting out of the first match of the night, Seed turned his attention onto Parting. In what turned out to be a series of Swiss cheese, both players went back and forth exchanging quick death blows to their opponent. When it came to the final game of the series, again on Daybreak, Seed was able to stop Parting's quick four gate with stalkers, transition into a few immortals and a colossus, and crush the Startale Protoss while he was trying to build his economy with a natural base. Having invested all of his resources into his army, Seed went in for the unstoppable all-in and took first place in the group.

Looking forward, Seed didn't have the most impressive debut as a defending champion, but at least he didn't fall out in the first round. He isn't a champion that you will see crushing everyone and going for a perfect season, but he has a knack for getting out of tough situations and pulling through in the clutch. As champion going into group selections, Seed will once again have an opportunity to pick his prey for his next round, hoping to make it to a second straight quarterfinals.

Revenge of the Leenocktopus
- Leenock advances onto the Ro16 with victories over SuHoSin and Parting.

FXOLeenock said in his winner's interview that if you beat him once, you will not beat him the second time around. Parting was able to triumph with all-ins when the two first met up in the first match of the night, but Leenock was ready when they faced off to see who would be advancing out of the group in second place.

In his first game of the night, Leenock was able to punish PartinG's extreme passiveness by massing an unstoppable hive composition and wiping him from the map. However, PartinG followed his initial loss with two excellently performed all-ins, and Leenock fell 1 - 2 to the losers match.

Falling into the loser's match and having to win two series to advance, the ace of FXO started to get to work. First up was SuHoSin, coming off a close loss to Seed in the opening series of the night. Facing two straight 10 pools in a row, Leenock batted down both attempts despite opening hatch first each time, rolling over his brother of the Swarm without difficulty. SuHoSin tried to catch the young Zerg napping, but the MLG champion was ready and knew exactly how to handle SuHoSin's early pressure.

Getting a second chance to take on Parting, Leenock didn't let it go to waste. Winning 2 - 0 in the final series of the night, Leenock banished Parting into Code A and earned his Ro16 spot. The first game saw Leenock use the same muta-bane-ling style that was crucial in his MLG championship run, and it proved to be no worse for wear as he harassed PartinG half to the death before finishing him off. After that, Leenock went back to his earliest roots, faking a regular macro opening only to go for a roach-ling all-in. PartinG wasn't able to respond correctly, and took his second straight loss to drop out of Code S. Two of the best maps for Zerg might have been taken out of the map pool this season, but that hasn't bothered Leenock so far. Heading into the second round, Leenock is one of the firm favorites to take the entire season.

Group B: TSL_Symbol, LG-IM_Yoda, Liquid'HerO, SlayerS_Ryung


TSL_Symbol for perhaps the first time in his career - and certainly for the first time since his meteoric rise last season - is in a position where he has to bounce back. While he has lost important matches in high stakes situations before, the defeat at the hands of Seed last season must have stung especially painfully. Symbol found himself 2 - 0 up in a Bo5, but could not find the strength to finish off the eventual champion and vampire incarnate.

Symbol's career path has an uncanny similarity to DongRaeGu's in 2011, but condensed into just a few short months. Like the MVP Zerg, he carried his team in the GSTL, he showcased brilliant play in all aspects of the game, almost triumphed in a foreign tournament and finally started to make a real mark at the most prestigious stage in SC2, the GSL Code S.

When DRG had his slight fall from grace, he rebounded in GSL Season One to win the tournament and to be crowned the new king of Zerg. If Symbol's imitation of DongRaeGu is to continue, then he should fall from the Ro32 this season before he finds his way. However, since this is the abridged version of DRG's career, then maybe he can bypass that step and begin his recovery immediately. Of course, we never know how players respond to heartbreak until we see them spring back into action.

Interestingly, Symbol’s first opponent is a player in a similar position to his from last season. Just as people might have once estimated Symbol as the third or fourth best Zerg on TSL, LG-IM_Yoda was also held in the same low regard for the Incredible Miracle Terran line-up.

Like Symbol, YoDa has gained some hype coming into the tournament, and enters this season as a possible candidate for the royal road. His prior resume isn't nearly as extensive as Symbol's going into Code S Season three - no Iron Squid or GSTL domination here - but the fact that he had been anointed by Mvp as the best LG-IM player is something that weighs heavily on everyone's mind.

YoDa’s run through Code A was impressive. He swept his part of the bracket, beating one player of each race with the air of a player who could afford to stay in second gear, just like Symbol in the previous season. Entering this match, both players have had time to prepare, time to refocus. Neither has been particularly active since the last season of GSL, which should mean that time for preparation has been ample, but also that we have few recent trends to analyze. What is known is that they face one another in their statistically best matchup. Of course, Symbol is now facing Terrans more prepared for a five or six Queen opening than the ones during his reign as the master of ZvT. On the other hand, it has been a long time since YoDa was truly tested at TvZ, his last season’s win coming against a July on the verge of retirement.

Anything could happen here. Symbol has never really been contested as a dominant ZvT force; his downfall came at the hands of Protoss in both Code S and the GSTL. YoDa meanwhile has had time to study his opponent, and has more momentum leading up to the match. On the other hand, Symbol has shown that he has what it takes to not only survive but to thrive in the high pressure situation of a round of 32 group in Code S, while YoDa still has to prove that he can funnel all the promise and all the proficiency in the training room into Code S success.

It is hard to bet against Symbol, who has the head to head record of 2 - 0 with wins in both GSTL S1 and S2. While he showed mortality at the end of last season in both Code S and GSTL, he was the best Zerg of the season, well on his way to widely being regarded as the best Zerg in the world. He has done very little to lose the title in terms of result, and while the buzz has faded, he should be able to persevere as long as he has not lost his confidence.

Liquid'HerO is coming into the group as the major fan favorite. There are a few tropes surrounding him, he has nerve issues, he is creative, he is fast, he loses to Protoss (and Taeja). What may not be considered and might even be thought of as slightly odd in this group is that he is also the one with the highest ever Code S finish. While he was not able to really come through on his promise in season two, suffering a 0 - 3 thrashing at the hands of Squirtle in the semis, it did qualify him for an elite club of having a top four finish.

He is also in the position of attending the most foreign events of any in Group B. While often regarded as an impediment to GSL success, for HerO it has been a life changer. Since joining Liquid, he has gone from being an obscure Protoss player on the fringe of GSL qualification to being a consistent feature of Sunday competition in the West and someone you rather expect to see in Code S in the East. Moreover, long term exposure to foreign tournaments has correlated to a gradual increase in his consistency. It's hard to say there's a causal relationship, but most definitely looks like a different player than he was a year ago, playing with confidence and swagger.

Finding himself in an era devoid of 1/1/1's and in a group lacking opposing Protoss players, one should expect HerO to feel good about his chances to make a second deep run in Code S. Of course, on the flip side he finds himself in the position where he has to live up to expectations, but HerO has become better and better at bearing that burden.

On the opposite side for the group’s second match is SlayerS_Ryung. While the three other group members have reputations for being mercurial or unproven, Ryung is almost the opposite. He is the solid one, the consistent one, the one you know will always deliver. And while he might not be as flashy as the others, in the long haul you would feel more comfortable betting on him to claw his way into the Ro16 at all costs.

Ryung has to feel a certain need to make his mark. He has been sharking around the upper echelons of GSL for some time, considerably longer than his opponents. He has had seasons of real promise, only losing in close games to truly inspired enemies. He also has the responsibility of living up to his status of the prime SlayerS Terran. With MMA seemingly back in good graces with the team's management, Ryung will want to cement the top dog position he took in the former captain's absence.

Unlike the previous match, there is a fair amount of data on how HerO and Ryung perform head to head. In NASL S3, they first met in the regular season where HerO won 2-0 and then again in the round of sixteen, where HerO came back from 0-2 to make the offline finals in Toronto by winning the last three maps. Most recently, at MLG Raleigh, they faced one another again. The trend continued in America as it had started in the online games during NASL with HerO winning 2-1. For the statistically inclined, one can also note that HerO is 6-1 vs. Ryung on maps featured in the current season of GSL.

It all makes sense in a way. All the games have been played recently, after HerO started to grow in stature as a PvT player. Meanwhile Ryung has never excelled at the matchup. Additionally, Ryung matches up poorly against HerO in terms of style, lacking the strong all-in ability to keep HerO on his toes, while being susceptible to HerO's surprisingly frequent all-in tactics. While HerO has neither the rock-solid PvT defense of Parting nor the brutal effectiveness of Squirtle on two bases, he has found himself able to dispatch of Ryung on most occasions.

There are some holes in the play of both; however they seem graver on the side of the Terran. Unless Ryung is completely comfortable in taking it into a late game without being too greedy or inflicting severe damage on HerO’s economy, he faces an uphill battle.

Overall outlook and predictions

If we follow the reasoning above, the winners final should come down to HerO vs Symbol in a PvZ. It's the match-up HerO has always been famous for, and the one that caused Symbol to go on his recent slump. Symbol has not shown weak ZvP by any means, but HerO should have an advantage. If anything, Symbol seems to more resemble a mix of DRG and Nestea in this matchup, unpredictable with an excellent midgame but not as decisively strong super late game. HerO owes a lot of his fame to defeating that type of Zerg player, and it seems like he will pounce on any chance to strengthen his reputation as one of the premier PvZ players in the world.

In the lower bracket, Ryung and YoDa should be a spectacular TvT. YoDa is a bit bothersome to predict, he has shown excellent game sense and in particular strong early game, both offensively and defensively. Ryung has his forte on a more strategic level, his reputation as a TvT specialist owes a lot to his ability to outplay, out-think and outmaneuver his opponents. Betting your life on YoDa not being able to compete with Ryung in the late game seems like a foolish life decision, but suspecting that it might favor the SlayerS player seems reasonable.

Ryung vs. Symbol would then be the match that decides the second place finisher. Overall, Symbol has an advantage in the sheer skill he showed at his peak. It remains to be seen how he would adapt to the mech play largely popularized by Mvp and it is uncertain if his ZvT will ever be as untouchable as it was in past months. On the other hand, it would not be the first time Ryung was eliminated from a group where he lost in a slightly unlucky manner, fought his way back with impressive play only to go out in a highly contested rubber match. As much as I have a feeling that Ryung will be a break out star who simply needs a little bit of luck to land a top eight finish, it's overridden by the suspicion that he is not quite ready to make his own luck just yet.


Symbol > YoDa
HerO > Ryung
HerO > Symbol
Ryung > YoDa
Symbol > Ryung

HerO and Symbol advance