Auction OSL - Ro16 Day 5 Preview

By.Rain vs JangBi

Unfortunately, due to the group stage format and prior results, this match is merely a formality for both players involved – Rain has secured first place by defeating titans DRG and MKP, while JangBi has already fallen to those same top GSL competitors. However, if anything history has shown us about KeSPA players holds true, we can hope these players will still both be bringing their A-game.

Since it’s nearly impossible to guess what might happen in a PvP between two players for whom this game is inconsequential, I’ll instead take this time to discuss what we’ve already seen from them. Rain thus far has pretty much been the most impressive KeSPA player, with only RorO’s WCS Korea run having a possible claim to superiority. His wins over MKP and DRG were significant, despite both MKP and DRG making uncharacteristic errors in their games. Still, a win is a win, and it’s not Rain’s fault his opponents made mistakes; he did well to capitalize and get the job done. All eyes will be on Rain for what will surely be an exciting OSL run for the new star Protoss.

JangBi, on the other hand, has looked decent if somewhat uninspiring. With a decent Proleague record despite being one of the last players to focus on SC1, it’s hard to say whether or not JangBi could still be something big. He received his seed into the OSL Ro16 as the defending champion and failed to qualify for both WCS and WCG Korea, meaning that he has had basically no success at all against GSL competitors thus far. While it’s hard to fault him for losing to players like MKP and DRG, we’ll have to see if he will come back next season stronger than ever and fully focused on SC2, or if he will fall by the wayside as up and coming KeSPA stars make their way to the top.

JangBi will likely take this a bit more seriously than Rain if he wants to salvage what has been a disappointing Ro16 showing, but overall Rain has proven to be the better player. I’ll still give the advantage to Rain, just because he’s not going to suddenly stop practicing SC2 and he probably has more experience with the always deadly SC2 PvP.

By.Rain > JangBi

NesTea vs OZ

At least this match actually affects the fate of one player involved, with this day being is as important as any for Oz, who has two big matches to win. Breaking out of a small slide with a win versus Fantasy last week, Oz has an important game against NesTea, who has descended even farther than Oz as of late. Sadly, NesTea is already 0-2 and out, so he’ll have to wait for next time around for his redemption.

Oz’s recent history has been filled with disappointing losses, dropping early in GSL and MLG, having fallen far from the rising Protoss who looked like he might be able to reach a GSL final. His win over Fantasy was a nice bounce-back and Oz will hope to keep it going with another victory. Fortunately for him, NesTea is the perfect opponent– a slumping Zerg and a match-up in which Oz has always been fairly solid. If he can make it through NesTea he at least guarantees himself a shot in tiebreakers, and a good chance to advance from the group.

NesTea… what can be said? The former God of Zerg has nose-dived hard, looking abysmal in ZvT especially and holding up poorly all-round. He made it through the ODT with victories over Vampire and Yugioh, but other than that, he’s been pretty disappointing with a quick elimination in IEM and two tough defeats versus KeSPA Terrans. However, a former superstar rarely simply dies off like this, and it’s completely possible that NesTea could show some signs of life here.

Oz has everything to play for and NesTea has little left but pride on the line – this alone could be enough to pick Oz as the favorite, but I’d probably take Oz over NesTea in current form either way. If Oz brings his A-game, it should be plenty to take down a struggling NesTea, nearly guaranteeing his advance to the Ro8.

Oz > NesTea

Flying vs BaBy

Although it is yet another meaningless match, BaBy versus Flying is still an intriguing match-up between two of the more interesting KeSPA players. Since it’s pretty much a dead rubber, along with the first and fourth matches, I think it’s a bit silly to try to preview it as if it matters. All you really need to know is that Flying has so far gone 2-0 over PartinG and Mvp, and BaBy has fallen to both of those players. All four players in this group have looked decent, and there has not been large margin of skill separating victory from defeat. Good luck to Flying in the Ro8, and good luck to BaBy next season!

Flying > BaBy

MC vs Flash

It’s really too bad that the only thing these players are fighting for is the first and second seed, and with so many tournaments going on in the SC2 world, that is likely not enough to justify specific preparation for these two behemoths. Flash versus MC will be yet another meeting of the absolute elite that both KeSPA and GSL have to offer, and despite the unfortunate circumstances, fans should at least be excited for what will hopefully be an exciting game.

Flash’s victories, while looking solid, have not really been over the best of the best from either KeSPA or GOM – taking two TvP wins over San (likely the weakest qualifying GSL player) and BeSt (a solid KeSPA player, but not on the level of his teammate Rain). MC, likewise, has continued his fairly successful record in Korean PvP with two victories over those same players. None of the games in this group have been particularly outstanding, and Flash and MC have clearly been the two players who most deserved to advance. Again, good luck to both of them in the Ro8, and I’m still definitely looking forward to seeing how this match plays out. Both players have a lot of pride, and they will not simply let that fall by the wayside.

MC > Flash

OZ vs Last

This match was initially postponed by Oz’s troubles returning from America and it is the only one in the group that actually matters for both players. But, alas, it isn’t exactly do or die– both have the chance to advance without winning this game, currently sharing second place with 1-0 records. It is still a very interesting contest between two players we might not normally be very excited about and a victory would be a big boost in the group standings for whoever comes out on top.

Oz has looked weak in PvT as of late, but a win over Fantasy was certainly a step in the right direction. Since it’s still hard to compare KeSPA and GSL players, and with Fantasy having so far looked equal to or better than Last, it’s not much of a stretch to say that Oz would be the favorite here. A victory for Oz would guarantee his progress to the Ro8 even if he does lose to NesTea, while a loss could create a tiebreaker scenario for the top three placegetters. This is the big match for Oz, and he’ll definitely be as well prepared as possible.

Last is still a bit of a mystery – one of those KeSPA guys that we really haven’t seen enough of yet in big tournaments versus GSL players to come to any sort of verdict on his relative skill level. A solid 7-4 record in Proleague and ODT shows that he’s a bit stronger than your average KeSPA player, but he was still not present in WCS or WCG Korea. With Fantasy having the better track record and still not managing to take down Oz, it doesn’t look too good for the STX Terran, but you can never count out a KeSPA player with their knack for preparation and hard practice. He will clearly have his work cut out for him and it’s important to note that a victory does not actually guarantee his advancement. Should Last win versus Oz, Oz win versus NesTea, and Fantasy win versus Last, there would be a three way tie for the top two spots.

Although all signs point towards Oz being a slight favorite, this is certainly a hard one to predict. If Last comes well prepared and catches Oz off guard, he would very easily cruise to a 2-0 position in the group, but the possibility of tiebreakers looms large regardless. I’ll still have to pick Oz for the win, simply because it’s hard to find the justification for saying that Last can accomplish what Fantasy could not.

Oz > Last